NBA Grind Down: Saturday, March 19th - Page Two
Houston at Atlanta – 07:30 PM by EMac
- Vegas Line – Atlanta -7, 214.5 Over/Under
- Houston Proj. Starters – Beverley-Harden-Harden-Smith-Howard
- Atlanta Proj. Starters – Teague-Korver-Bazemore-Millsap-Horford
| Houston | Atlanta | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 214 |  | Vegas Total | 214 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 7.0 | Vegas Sprd | -7.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 103.8 | Team Proj. | 110.8 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 100.03 | Team Pace | 99.07 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Patrick Beverley | James Harden | James Harden | Josh Smith | Dwight Howard | Proj Starter | Jeff Teague | Kyle Korver | Kent Bazemore | Paul Millsap | Al Horford | |
| Opp. Season | 6 | 18 | 11 | 13 | 23 | Opp. Season | 13 | 24 | 30 | 29 | 20 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 15 | 24 | 6 | 1 | 12 | Opp. Season | 16 | 28 | 17 | 9 | 28 | |
Houston
Houston looked inspired last night in their game against Minnesota and they continue to hang on to the seventh seed in the Western Conference playoff standings. There is not much margin for error and it will be interesting to see if the players will listen to this coaching staff after already running another one out of town. This game checks in with one of the higher projected point totals of the evening, though it is hard to find any fantasy recommendations outside of those listed below.
Elite Plays
The last two times he has faced Atlanta, Harden has rolled up 22.0ppg, 8.0rpg, 11.0apg and1.5 combined blocks/steals in 39.0mpg. That looks like a solid baseline target in this matchup, particularly after a “players only” meeting which should have him focused for a couple games (heck, he put up 60 fantasy points on the Timberwolves Friday night).
FD – $10,300
DK – $10,400
Secondary Plays
Howard was born and raised in Atlanta and assuming he went straight from the airport to the hotel, he should be ready to roll in front of friends and family…and ideally saved the trip to the Gold Club for after the game tonight.
FD – $7,500
DK – $7,500
Beverley is continually overlooked, however, it must be noted that over his last half dozen games he is averaging 31.1mpg, 9.8ppg, 4.8rpg, 4.7apg and 2.5 combined blocks/steals which is good for 5-6x on most daily fantasy sites. He is the only facilitator outside of James Harden and sixteen-year veteran Jason “Jet” Terry.
FD – $4,900
DK – $4,700
h3. Atlanta
The Hawks have righted the ship and won nine of their last eleven games. They are a middle of the road team when it comes to scoring, checking in with 102.5 points per game and they generally outwork their opponents on defense which has them sporting the seventh best points differential at +3.7. The majority of their fantasy production is based in their starters with Millsap, Teague and Horford Hotlanta’s version of the Big Three.
Elite Plays
In the last meeting, Millsap had a phenomenal all-around game with 22 points, 13 rebounds, 4 assists, 5 blocks and a steal for a 50+ fantasy point outing by nearly every site scoring system. The Rockets have struggled all season against opposing power forwards and this is a matchup where Millsap’s reasonable price tag across the industry have him shaping up as a core play in all formats.
FD – $8,100
DK – $8,100
Secondary Plays
Jeff Teague and Dennis Schroder
Both are fill-in options and should perform adequately for their current price points across the industry.
FD – $6,500 and $4,500
DK – $6,200 and $4,000
You know that your Ol’ Pal EMac is always looking for an extreme discount play, however, I think this is one that you too will be able to support. In his last half dozen games with Atlanta, Humphries has averaged 16.5mpg, 7.8ppg, 4.2rpg, 0.5apg and 0.8 combined blocks/steals. That is solid production for his price point and should be around 5x on most daily fantasy sites.
The real kicker is that in his last matchup against the Rockets, which was also his first game with the Phoenix Suns (he was traded by Washington, released by Phoenix then signed by Atlanta, all since mid-February) he posted 18 points, 12 rebounds, 2 assists, 2 blocks, a steal and 2 three-pointers on his way to a forty burger. Shhhh, let’s keep this between us.
FD – $3,500
DK – $3,200
Utah at Chicago – 08:00 PM by EMac
- Vegas Line – Chicago -2.5, 195 Over/Under
- Utah Proj. Starters – Mack-Hood-Ingles-Favors-Gobert
- Chicago Proj. Starters – Rose-Moore-Dunleavy-Gibson-Gasol
| Utah | Chicago | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 195 |  | Vegas Total | 195 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 2.5 | Vegas Sprd | -2.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 96.3 | Team Proj. | 98.8 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 93.58 | Team Pace | 98.93 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Shelvin Mack | Rodney Hood | Proj Starter | E’Twaun Moore | Mike Dunleavy | Taj Gibson | Pau Gasol | |||||
| Opp. Season | 28 | 15 | 25 | 24 | 26 | Opp. Season | 8 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 20 | 25 | 19 | 12 | 7 | Opp. Season | 2 | 1 | 11 | 5 | 22 | |
Utah
Utah plays at such a slow and deliberate pace that it is often times hard to look to their players for fantasy goodness. Fortunately there are a lot of injuries to the Bulls front court so we can start there.
Elite Plays
Derrick Favors and Rudy Gobert
The Chicago frontcourt is in shambles with Joakim Noah out for the remainder of the season and Pau Gasol out through the weekend at a minimum. This leaves veteran Taj Gibson and rookie Bobby Portis to deal with Favors who is a fine play in all formats and Rudy Gobert who could very well be a sub-15% play in tournaments Saturday.
FD – $7,400 and $6,200
DK – $7,300 and $6,300
Secondary Plays
Mack continues to be an incredibly productive player now that he has found a home in Utah. Though is fourteen games with the Jazz he is averaging 12.5ppg, 3.9rpg, 5.3apg and 1.0 combined blocks/steals. Unfortunately, the pricing algorithms have caught up to his new found production. He is still in the mix, however, now that he is in the same price range as Jeff Teague, Derrick Rose and Reggie Jackson, the choice is not as clear cut.
FD – $6,200
DK – $6,000
Chicago
Even though they are at home and favored by three points, without Pau Gasol, this is going to be a slug’em out game with the Jazz knocking off a good 5-7% of the Bulls already slow paced offense. The Utah Jazz are just too tough defensively and operate at an elite level against most positions. With the current pricing for the Bulls as well as their many injuries, it is just not a responsible move to play any of them. Even in a tournament, unless we catch lightening in a bottle, we will likely be left very very empty inside.
Elite Plays
NONE
Secondary Plays
NONE
L.A. Clippers at Memphis – 08:00 PM by EMac
- Vegas Line – L.A. Clippers -10, 199.5 Over/Under
- L.A. Clippers Proj. Starters – Paul-Redick-Pierce-Mbah a Moute-Jordan
- Memphis Proj. Starters – Conley-Hairston-Barnes-Green-
| L.A. Clippers | Memphis | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 199 |  | Vegas Total | 199 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | -10.0 | Vegas Sprd | 10.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 104.8 | Team Proj. | 94.8 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 98.22 | Team Pace | 95.7 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Chris Paul | J.J. Redick | Paul Pierce | Luc Mbah a Moute | DeAndre Jordan | Proj Starter | Mike Conley | P.J. Hairston | Matt Barnes | JaMychal Green | ||
| Opp. Season | 9 | 4 | 17 | 12 | 4 | Opp. Season | 5 | 6 | 13 | 8 | 19 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 25 | 16 | 22 | 28 | 29 | Opp. Season | 10 | 18 | 25 | 21 | 1 | |
L.A. Clippers
The Clippers are double digit road favorites in Memphis against the wounded Grizzlies. The only fear is that their upside may be curbed somewhat depending on how many healthy bodies the Grizzlies can muster. If Zach Randolph or Vince Carter return and Matt Barnes is not suspended for his little tête-à-tête with John Henson in the Milwaukee Bucks locker area after both players were tossed, this could be a close enough game into the fourth quarter that the Clippers starters will see their full complement of minutes.
Elite Plays
The majority of their offense flows through these two players and they should both be in the mix for 40ish fantasy points. Just look at how they did against the San Antonio Spurs, both remain viable options in all matchups as long a Blake Griffin is out of commission.
FD – $9,900 and $8,400
DK – $9,400 and $7,400
Secondary Plays
Looks like the best value option from the Clippers to see extended minutes if the game is in hand.
FD – $3,700
DK – $3,600
Memphis
With Zach Randolph and Vince Carter questionable, Matt Barnes potentially being suspended and Mike Conley, Chris “Birdman” Anderson and Brandan Wright all ruled out, it looks like tonight could be Lance Stephenson and the equivalent of NBA cannon fodder. My condolences to the Memphis fans.
Elite Plays
NONE
Secondary Plays
Lance has been outstanding, however, his price has moved accordingly with his new production levels. This is a revenge game against the team that traded him at mid-season after not being able to figure out how to employ his skill set. A motivated Stephenson is a potential triple double waiting to happen, even with a lack of supporting players.
FD – $7,200
DK – $6,100
Golden State at San Antonio – 08:30 PM by EMac
- Vegas Line – San Antonio -4, 217.5 Over/Under
- Golden State Proj. Starters – Curry-Thompson-Barnes-Green-Bogut
- San Antonio Proj. Starters – Parker-Green-Leonard-Aldridge-Duncan
| Golden State | San Antonio | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 217 |  | Vegas Total | 217 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 4.0 | Vegas Sprd | -4.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 106.8 | Team Proj. | 110.8 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 102.15 | Team Pace | 96.34 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Stephen Curry | Klay Thompson | Harrison Barnes | Draymond Green | Andrew Bogut | Proj Starter | Tony Parker | Danny Green | Kawhi Leonard | LaMarcus Aldridge | Tim Duncan | |
| Opp. Season | 4 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | Opp. Season | 26 | 10 | 12 | 15 | 21 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 14 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 17 | Opp. Season | 23 | 8 | 8 | 22 | 24 | |
Golden State
This is the Saturday night marquee matchup and a likely preview to this year’s Western Conference Finals. This is just the second game in the four game season series and the Warriors took the first game easily at home with a 120-90 victory. In that game Tim Duncan sat out and LaMarcus Aldridge and Kawhi Leonard played just 25 minutes each as the Dubs lead by 29 points at the end of the third quarter. With this game being on the road, I am expecting a much, much closer game.
Elite Plays
Curry is playing at a level not seen since the heyday of Michael “Air” Jordan. Much like Cole Trickle in a race car, there is nothing the can’t do on a basketball court. In his last three games against San Antonio, he is averaging 30.2mpg, 28.7ppg, 3.3rpg, 6.7apg and 3.3spg which is worth just shy of 50 fantasy points on most scoring systems.
FD – $10,300
DK – $10,300
Secondary Plays
Green is in play on DraftKings with the favorable price point and on FanDuel where we need to use two power forwards.
FD – $8.300
DK – $7,700
Ahhhh, the Ace of Speights… yeah, another off-the-wall play, however just hear me out. Andrew Bogut is doubtful with a toe injury and Festus Ezeli is out. That leaves Speights and recent acquisition Anderson Varejao to man the pivot position.
In his last six games, Marreese has averaged 15.8mpg, 13.7ppg, 5.0rpg, 1.8apg and 1.0 combined blocks/steals for 20+ fantasy points by most scoring systems. Enjoy!
FD – $4,000
DK – $3,700
San Antonio
The offense of the Spurs is very spread out and it will be interesting to see if Coach Popovich pulls anything out of his bag of tricks or just plays it close to the vest saving waiting for the likely meeting in the playoffs. Because of this risk, it will be hard to target any specific Spurs as viable fantasy options.
Elite Plays
NONE
Secondary Plays
Leonard will be the focus of the Spurs offense, however, in three of his last four games with the Warriors, he has exceeded 30 fantasy points just once. That is cause enough for me to consider him a tournament play only as he flirted with 50 fantasy points in that fourth game.
FD – $8,700
DK – $8,300
Tournaments only, however, he has put up 40+ fantasy points in two of his last four games (against Portland and against Chicago). On the other hand he has tallied less than 20 in six of his last eight. Buyer beware, but the payoff potential is their with Golden State likely to keep this game moving and add extra possessions above and beyond what the Spurs typically see.
FD – $5,100
DK – $4,500