NBA Grind Down: Saturday, March 19th - Page Two

Houston at Atlanta – 07:30 PM by EMac

  • Vegas LineAtlanta -7, 214.5 Over/Under
  • Houston Proj. StartersBeverley-Harden-Harden-Smith-Howard
  • Atlanta Proj. StartersTeague-Korver-Bazemore-Millsap-Horford
Houston Atlanta
Vegas Total 214 Vegas Total 214
Vegas Sprd 7.0 Vegas Sprd -7.0
Team Proj. 103.8 Team Proj. 110.8
Team Pace 100.03 Team Pace 99.07
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Patrick Beverley James Harden James Harden Josh Smith Dwight Howard Proj Starter Jeff Teague Kyle Korver Kent Bazemore Paul Millsap Al Horford
Opp. Season 6 18 11 13 23 Opp. Season 13 24 30 29 20
Opp. Last 7 15 24 6 1 12 Opp. Season 16 28 17 9 28


Houston

Houston looked inspired last night in their game against Minnesota and they continue to hang on to the seventh seed in the Western Conference playoff standings. There is not much margin for error and it will be interesting to see if the players will listen to this coaching staff after already running another one out of town. This game checks in with one of the higher projected point totals of the evening, though it is hard to find any fantasy recommendations outside of those listed below.

Elite Plays

James Harden

The last two times he has faced Atlanta, Harden has rolled up 22.0ppg, 8.0rpg, 11.0apg and1.5 combined blocks/steals in 39.0mpg. That looks like a solid baseline target in this matchup, particularly after a “players only” meeting which should have him focused for a couple games (heck, he put up 60 fantasy points on the Timberwolves Friday night).

FD – $10,300
DK – $10,400

Secondary Plays

Dwight Howard

Howard was born and raised in Atlanta and assuming he went straight from the airport to the hotel, he should be ready to roll in front of friends and family…and ideally saved the trip to the Gold Club for after the game tonight.

FD – $7,500
DK – $7,500

Patrick Beverley

Beverley is continually overlooked, however, it must be noted that over his last half dozen games he is averaging 31.1mpg, 9.8ppg, 4.8rpg, 4.7apg and 2.5 combined blocks/steals which is good for 5-6x on most daily fantasy sites. He is the only facilitator outside of James Harden and sixteen-year veteran Jason “Jet” Terry.

FD – $4,900
DK – $4,700
h3. Atlanta

The Hawks have righted the ship and won nine of their last eleven games. They are a middle of the road team when it comes to scoring, checking in with 102.5 points per game and they generally outwork their opponents on defense which has them sporting the seventh best points differential at +3.7. The majority of their fantasy production is based in their starters with Millsap, Teague and Horford Hotlanta’s version of the Big Three.

Elite Plays

Paul Millsap

In the last meeting, Millsap had a phenomenal all-around game with 22 points, 13 rebounds, 4 assists, 5 blocks and a steal for a 50+ fantasy point outing by nearly every site scoring system. The Rockets have struggled all season against opposing power forwards and this is a matchup where Millsap’s reasonable price tag across the industry have him shaping up as a core play in all formats.

FD – $8,100
DK – $8,100

Secondary Plays

Jeff Teague and Dennis Schroder

Both are fill-in options and should perform adequately for their current price points across the industry.

FD – $6,500 and $4,500
DK – $6,200 and $4,000

Kris Humphries

You know that your Ol’ Pal EMac is always looking for an extreme discount play, however, I think this is one that you too will be able to support. In his last half dozen games with Atlanta, Humphries has averaged 16.5mpg, 7.8ppg, 4.2rpg, 0.5apg and 0.8 combined blocks/steals. That is solid production for his price point and should be around 5x on most daily fantasy sites.

The real kicker is that in his last matchup against the Rockets, which was also his first game with the Phoenix Suns (he was traded by Washington, released by Phoenix then signed by Atlanta, all since mid-February) he posted 18 points, 12 rebounds, 2 assists, 2 blocks, a steal and 2 three-pointers on his way to a forty burger. Shhhh, let’s keep this between us.

FD – $3,500
DK – $3,200


Utah at Chicago – 08:00 PM by EMac

  • Vegas LineChicago -2.5, 195 Over/Under
  • Utah Proj. StartersMack-Hood-Ingles-Favors-Gobert
  • Chicago Proj. StartersRose-Moore-Dunleavy-Gibson-Gasol
Utah Chicago
Vegas Total 195 Vegas Total 195
Vegas Sprd 2.5 Vegas Sprd -2.5
Team Proj. 96.3 Team Proj. 98.8
Team Pace 93.58 Team Pace 98.93
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Shelvin Mack Rodney Hood Proj Starter E’Twaun Moore Mike Dunleavy Taj Gibson Pau Gasol
Opp. Season 28 15 25 24 26 Opp. Season 8 2 2 2 2
Opp. Last 7 20 25 19 12 7 Opp. Season 2 1 11 5 22


Utah

Utah plays at such a slow and deliberate pace that it is often times hard to look to their players for fantasy goodness. Fortunately there are a lot of injuries to the Bulls front court so we can start there.

Elite Plays

Derrick Favors and Rudy Gobert

The Chicago frontcourt is in shambles with Joakim Noah out for the remainder of the season and Pau Gasol out through the weekend at a minimum. This leaves veteran Taj Gibson and rookie Bobby Portis to deal with Favors who is a fine play in all formats and Rudy Gobert who could very well be a sub-15% play in tournaments Saturday.

FD – $7,400 and $6,200
DK – $7,300 and $6,300

Secondary Plays

Shelvin Mack

Mack continues to be an incredibly productive player now that he has found a home in Utah. Though is fourteen games with the Jazz he is averaging 12.5ppg, 3.9rpg, 5.3apg and 1.0 combined blocks/steals. Unfortunately, the pricing algorithms have caught up to his new found production. He is still in the mix, however, now that he is in the same price range as Jeff Teague, Derrick Rose and Reggie Jackson, the choice is not as clear cut.

FD – $6,200
DK – $6,000

Chicago

Even though they are at home and favored by three points, without Pau Gasol, this is going to be a slug’em out game with the Jazz knocking off a good 5-7% of the Bulls already slow paced offense. The Utah Jazz are just too tough defensively and operate at an elite level against most positions. With the current pricing for the Bulls as well as their many injuries, it is just not a responsible move to play any of them. Even in a tournament, unless we catch lightening in a bottle, we will likely be left very very empty inside.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

NONE


L.A. Clippers at Memphis – 08:00 PM by EMac

  • Vegas LineL.A. Clippers -10, 199.5 Over/Under
  • L.A. Clippers Proj. StartersPaul-Redick-Pierce-Mbah a Moute-Jordan
  • Memphis Proj. StartersConley-Hairston-Barnes-Green-
L.A. Clippers Memphis
Vegas Total 199 Vegas Total 199
Vegas Sprd -10.0 Vegas Sprd 10.0
Team Proj. 104.8 Team Proj. 94.8
Team Pace 98.22 Team Pace 95.7
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Chris Paul J.J. Redick Paul Pierce Luc Mbah a Moute DeAndre Jordan Proj Starter Mike Conley P.J. Hairston Matt Barnes JaMychal Green
Opp. Season 9 4 17 12 4 Opp. Season 5 6 13 8 19
Opp. Last 7 25 16 22 28 29 Opp. Season 10 18 25 21 1


L.A. Clippers

The Clippers are double digit road favorites in Memphis against the wounded Grizzlies. The only fear is that their upside may be curbed somewhat depending on how many healthy bodies the Grizzlies can muster. If Zach Randolph or Vince Carter return and Matt Barnes is not suspended for his little tête-à-tête with John Henson in the Milwaukee Bucks locker area after both players were tossed, this could be a close enough game into the fourth quarter that the Clippers starters will see their full complement of minutes.

Elite Plays

Chris Paul and DeAndre Jordan

The majority of their offense flows through these two players and they should both be in the mix for 40ish fantasy points. Just look at how they did against the San Antonio Spurs, both remain viable options in all matchups as long a Blake Griffin is out of commission.

FD – $9,900 and $8,400
DK – $9,400 and $7,400

Secondary Plays

Wesley Johnson

Looks like the best value option from the Clippers to see extended minutes if the game is in hand.

FD – $3,700
DK – $3,600

Memphis

With Zach Randolph and Vince Carter questionable, Matt Barnes potentially being suspended and Mike Conley, Chris “Birdman” Anderson and Brandan Wright all ruled out, it looks like tonight could be Lance Stephenson and the equivalent of NBA cannon fodder. My condolences to the Memphis fans.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Lance Stephenson

Lance has been outstanding, however, his price has moved accordingly with his new production levels. This is a revenge game against the team that traded him at mid-season after not being able to figure out how to employ his skill set. A motivated Stephenson is a potential triple double waiting to happen, even with a lack of supporting players.

FD – $7,200
DK – $6,100


Golden State at San Antonio – 08:30 PM by EMac

  • Vegas LineSan Antonio -4, 217.5 Over/Under
  • Golden State Proj. StartersCurry-Thompson-Barnes-Green-Bogut
  • San Antonio Proj. StartersParker-Green-Leonard-Aldridge-Duncan
Golden State San Antonio
Vegas Total 217 Vegas Total 217
Vegas Sprd 4.0 Vegas Sprd -4.0
Team Proj. 106.8 Team Proj. 110.8
Team Pace 102.15 Team Pace 96.34
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Stephen Curry Klay Thompson Harrison Barnes Draymond Green Andrew Bogut Proj Starter Tony Parker Danny Green Kawhi Leonard LaMarcus Aldridge Tim Duncan
Opp. Season 4 1 1 4 3 Opp. Season 26 10 12 15 21
Opp. Last 7 14 2 2 8 17 Opp. Season 23 8 8 22 24


Golden State

This is the Saturday night marquee matchup and a likely preview to this year’s Western Conference Finals. This is just the second game in the four game season series and the Warriors took the first game easily at home with a 120-90 victory. In that game Tim Duncan sat out and LaMarcus Aldridge and Kawhi Leonard played just 25 minutes each as the Dubs lead by 29 points at the end of the third quarter. With this game being on the road, I am expecting a much, much closer game.

Elite Plays

Stephen Curry

Curry is playing at a level not seen since the heyday of Michael “Air” Jordan. Much like Cole Trickle in a race car, there is nothing the can’t do on a basketball court. In his last three games against San Antonio, he is averaging 30.2mpg, 28.7ppg, 3.3rpg, 6.7apg and 3.3spg which is worth just shy of 50 fantasy points on most scoring systems.

FD – $10,300
DK – $10,300

Secondary Plays

Draymond Green

Green is in play on DraftKings with the favorable price point and on FanDuel where we need to use two power forwards.

FD – $8.300
DK – $7,700

Marreese Speights

Ahhhh, the Ace of Speights… yeah, another off-the-wall play, however just hear me out. Andrew Bogut is doubtful with a toe injury and Festus Ezeli is out. That leaves Speights and recent acquisition Anderson Varejao to man the pivot position.

In his last six games, Marreese has averaged 15.8mpg, 13.7ppg, 5.0rpg, 1.8apg and 1.0 combined blocks/steals for 20+ fantasy points by most scoring systems. Enjoy!

FD – $4,000
DK – $3,700

San Antonio

The offense of the Spurs is very spread out and it will be interesting to see if Coach Popovich pulls anything out of his bag of tricks or just plays it close to the vest saving waiting for the likely meeting in the playoffs. Because of this risk, it will be hard to target any specific Spurs as viable fantasy options.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Kawhi Leonard

Leonard will be the focus of the Spurs offense, however, in three of his last four games with the Warriors, he has exceeded 30 fantasy points just once. That is cause enough for me to consider him a tournament play only as he flirted with 50 fantasy points in that fourth game.

FD – $8,700
DK – $8,300

Tony Parker

Tournaments only, however, he has put up 40+ fantasy points in two of his last four games (against Portland and against Chicago). On the other hand he has tallied less than 20 in six of his last eight. Buyer beware, but the payoff potential is their with Golden State likely to keep this game moving and add extra possessions above and beyond what the Spurs typically see.

FD – $5,100
DK – $4,500


Jump to Page 1 2

About the Author

  • Emac (emac)

  • Emac won the 2007 Fantasy Baseball grand prize (trip for two to the MLB All-Star game) in the Roto format on ESPN. He won again in 2008, this time in the H2H format. You can check out his ESPN Fantasy Experience here. Emac finished in the top ten for the DraftKings inaugural $1,000,000 Chase for the Crown promotion and also won the first ever MLB King’s Crown ($5k top prize) on DailyJoust.

Comments

  • Goldenwonka

    Love the Dwight Howard writeup, great stuff my friend!

  • tmat

    LOL! Looks like Howard screwed up someone’s lineup one time too many :).

  • ETGrind

    Between the Gold Club, and chasing that Forty Burger around with Humpty..life’s been tough! 🙈

  • cdbesch

    curious as to why the first page was written by stevie but the second by emac?

  • fantasypad

    Wow this was a lazy grind down.

  • emac

    @cdbesch said...

    curious as to why the first page was written by stevie but the second by emac?

    To properly write the GrindDown it takes a few hours. RG needed a replacement author today to cover for a vacation so in addition to our other content, Stevie and I each wrote half of the GrindDown to pitch in an help out.

    EMac

  • japapo

    @emac said...

    To properly write the GrindDown it takes a few hours. RG needed a replacement author today to cover for a vacation so in addition to our other content, Stevie and I each wrote half of the GrindDown to pitch in an help out.

    EMac

    good stuff…..and very much appreciated…..

  • Daryl531

    Dwight Howard at the Gold Club, dude probably will end up at Magic City or Stokers…. Just saying

  • thedude404

    • 2015 FanDuel NBA Playboy Mansion Finalist

    FYI Gold Club has been closed for over a decade…..

  • emac

    @thedude404 said...

    FYI Gold Club has been closed for over a decade…..

    Yes, it was just a joke…and I am not familiar with the current Atlanta “club” scene ;)

  • brannigan73

    Not sure how no spur can be elite. They are at home and some people are going to have big games its just a fact. Im going to be betting its going to be Leonard and Aldridge and Parker.

  • Voltzwagon

    Not enough Spurs love. They all are underpriced and have a good chance to see significantly more minutes than their season averages.

  • emac

    @Voltzwagon said...

    Not enough Spurs love. They all are underpriced and have a good chance to see significantly more minutes than their season averages.

    Yes, but which ones? That is the tough call. I think if Duncan plays (he sat the last one and could sit this one if Popovich is “saving” him for the playoffs as a chess move gambit) he is going to be 3%. If you are on DK you can swap to Marreese Speights if he is a late scratch.

  • Ravenfan

    Total of 3 Elite players below 7K and all of those 5300 and above, basically looks like went high priced chalk that can’t fit into lineups together.

  • X Unread Thread
  • X Thread with New Replies*
  • *Jumps to your first unread reply

New to DFS?

Be sure to click through our links and use our exclusive promo codes to receive the industry's best sign-up bonuses, including free access to our premium content.

RotoGrinders.com is the home of the daily fantasy sports community. Our content, rankings, member blogs, promotions and forum discussion all cater to the players that like to create a new fantasy team every day of the week.

Bet with your head, not over it!
Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-Gambler