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NBA Grind Down: Saturday, November 21st - Page Two

by Andy Smith (a25smith) Last Updated 2015-11-21 20:53:43

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New York at Houston – 08:00 PM

New York Houston
newyorknba Vegas Total 205 houstonnba Vegas Total 205
Vegas Sprd 4.5 Vegas Sprd -4.5
Team Proj. 100.3 Team Proj. 104.8
Team Pace 98.08 Team Pace 101.12
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Jose Calderon Arron Afflalo Carmelo Anthony Kristaps Porzingis Robin Lopez Proj Starter Jason Terry James Harden Trevor Ariza Terrence Jones Dwight Howard
Opp. Season 25 20 28 28 23 Opp. Season 16 6 8 6 12
Opp. Last 7 25 20 21 12 26 Opp. Season 16 3 1 6 7

New York

The Knicks draw an elite matchup with a terrible Rockets’ defense and should be fully healthy as Arron Afflalo has returned to the lineup.

The Rockets rank near the bottom of the league in most defensive categories and are allowing the most fantasy points per game. The Knicks do play a lot of bodies, so they can be a difficult team to target, but both Carmelo Anthony and Kristaps Porzingis look to be in terrific spots tonight. The Rockets are 28th in DVP against SF and Anthony has 25 or more points in five of his last six games. His price is very attractive on DK and he should be in line for a big outing here.

Porzingis has looked far better than most expected and has shown really nice upside. The primary problem with him has been minutes and foul trouble. His minutes have been trending upward, when he’s been able to avoid foul trouble, and the Rockets are 28th in DVP against PF. They’ll also be without Dwight Howard so they’ll be forced to play small and Porzingis should have a big afternoon on the glass. I like to target opposing centers when Howard rests, but a guy like Robin Lopez is really tough to trust and sometimes doesn’t even play over 20 minutes per game. With a deep slate of centers, he’s a very risky option.

The guy I’d be more willing to take a shot on would be Arron Afflalo as he’s worked his way back from injury and his minutes are up near 30 now. James Harden has reverted back to his poor defense so Afflalo should see open looks in this one.

Elite Plays

Carmelo Anthony

FD: $9,600 — DK: $8,500
Min/Game: 34.5 — Usage Rate: 30.30

Kristaps Porzingis

FD: $6,000 — DK: $6,300
Min/Game: 25.2 — Usage Rate: 25.00

Secondary Plays

Arron Afflalo

FD: $4,600 — DK: $4,300
Min/Game: 29.5 — Usage Rate: 18.70

Houston

With this being the second game of a back to back, Dwight Howard is expected to be out, so the Rockets will be very thin on the interior. I’d expect James Harden to see a ton of usage and for Clint Capela to draw the start on the inside, but check back as the Rockets have a new coach so things could change.

The Knicks have been a solid defensive unit this season and aren’t a great team to target. However, Dwight Howard will likely be out so there is some potential value on the Rockets, and James Harden will likely try to put the team on his back. The Rockets lost again last night and are a team in turmoil. We saw Harden put the team on his back Wednesday night, and with Howard out, he should look to do so again. The Knicks have been solid against SG but Harden is matchup proof and the top SG option on the board tonight.

With Howard out, the Rockets will be very thin on the interior so guys like Clint Capela and Terrence Jones should see plenty of run. Capela has averaged just over 25 FD PPG in the 4 games Howard has missed so he’s a viable value play tonight, and Jones fits in as a mid-range PF as the position is fairly thin tonight.

Elite Plays

James Harden

FD: $10,300 — DK: $10,200
Min/Game: — Usage Rate: 33.20

Secondary Plays

Terrence Jones

FD: $5,700 — DK: $5,700
Min/Game: 26.3 — Usage Rate: 21.70

Clint Capela

FD: $4,300 — DK: $4,700
Min/Game: — Usage Rate:

Memphis at San Antonio – 08:30 PM

Memphis San Antonio
memphisnba Vegas Total 190 sanantonionba Vegas Total 190
Vegas Sprd 7.5 Vegas Sprd -7.5
Team Proj. 91.3 Team Proj. 98.8
Team Pace 96.42 Team Pace 97.3
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj Starter Mike Conley Tony Allen Jeff Green JaMychal Green Marc Gasol Proj Starter Tony Parker Danny Green Kawhi Leonard LaMarcus Aldridge Tim Duncan
Opp. Season 27 1 2 1 4 Opp. Season 23 10 18 23 5
Opp. Last 7 10 1 6 4 20 Opp. Last 7 22 26 2 10 19

Memphis

Zach Randolph missed last night’s game with a sore knee and is questionable for tonight. If he sits then JaMychal Green should draw another start, but he struggled against a weak Rockets defense so he’s a very risky play against an elite San Antonio defense.

The Grizzlies draw the toughest matchup on the board as they face the elite defense of the San Antonio Spurs. Jeff Green produced solid value of late but then reminded us all of his volatility as he disappointed last night in a great matchup with the Rockets. Due to the tough matchup, the Grizzlies can largely be avoided, with only Mike Conley and Marc Gasol warranting any consideration. If Zach Randolph sits then both should pick up extra usage. With Randolph out last night, Gasol racked up a triple-double, but he is a GPP only play due to the elite interior defense of the Spurs.

Mike Conley does tend to play well against Tony Parker as he averaged almost 38 FD PPG against the Spurs in four games last year, and almost 35 FD points in the previous year. The Spurs’ PG defense has also been their one weak link as they are 25th in DVP against PGs.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Mike Conley

FD: $6,700 — DK: $6,300
Min/Game: 31.5 — Usage Rate: 22.10

San Antonio

This is the second night of a back to back for the Spurs, so you need to monitor the status of the older guys like Tim Duncan and Tony Parker. Also LaMarcus Aldridge is questionable with an ankle injury.

UPDATE: Manu Ginobili is probable. He’s not a great fantasy option due to his lack of minutes but he does take away from Green.

The Spurs are coming off a surprising loss to the Pelicans last night so I’m expecting a much better performance tonight. The problem with the Spurs is that they are like the Hawks in that they are a great team, and can spread production around.The safest option from the Spurs is Kawhi Leonard as he’s the one Spur playing big minutes. He’s taken over as the lead scoring option and should see even more usage tonight if Aldridge sits. The SF position is absolutely loaded but Leonard shouldn’t be overlooked as he could be in for a monster usage night.

Outside of Leonard things are very murky. If LaMarcus Aldridge plays then he’s an ok secondary option but his production and usage are way down with the Spurs. If he sits then guys like Boris Diaw and David West enter the equation, with Diaw being the better performer so far this season. Tim Duncan only played 19 minutes last night so despite the fact that this is a back to back, I’d expect him to play. However, the matchup against Marc Gasol is very tough and his minutes are unlikely to climb over 28. He would stand to see a large usage boost if Aldridge is out, but I’d lean more towards the savings with Diaw.

At the guard spot, Tony Parker just isn’t the same player he once was and his production is way down. On a second night of a back to back, he’s very difficult to trust. The minutes have been there for Danny Green, but he’s struggled to find his footing this season. This is likely a Kawhi or bust game for me, unless Aldridge is ruled out.

Elite Plays

Kawhi Leonard

FD: $8,600 — DK: $8,100
Min/Game: 33.4 — Usage Rate: 26.50

Secondary Plays

LaMarcus Aldridge

FD: $7,700 — DK: $6,800
Min/Game: 31.0 — Usage Rate: 24.50

Boris Diaw (if Aldridge out)

FD: $3,900 — DK: $3,300

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About the Author

a25smith
Andy Smith (a25smith)