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NBA Grind Down: Sunday, April 16th

by Bryan Pauquette (bryanpauquette) Last Updated 2017-04-17 01:23:48

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.

Legend & FAQ

Atlanta Hawks at Washington Wizards – 1:00 PM ET

Atlanta Hawks Washington Wizards
atlantanba Vegas Total 209.0 washingtonnba Vegas Total 209.0
Vegas Spread 5.0 Vegas Spread -5.0
Team Total 102.0 Team Total 107.0
Pace +/- 1.0 Pace +/- 1.1
Proj. Starter Dennis Schroder Tim Hardaway Taurean Prince Paul Millsap Dwight Howard Proj. Starter John Wall Bradley Beal Otto Porter Markieff Morris Marcin Gortat
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 9 16 17 22 20 Adj. DvP 24 25 28 8 7
DRPM -0.83 -0.94 0.03 1.54 1.33 DRPM -2.53 -1.35 2.66 3.29 2.92

Atlanta Hawks

What an awesome start to the playoffs Saturday. Today’s games look to be just as good, if not better (at least from a fantasy perspective). Similar to yesterday, this will be a detailed preview of the series on today’s slate that we can use as a reference point as we progress through Round 1. Here we go!

The Hawks battled some injuries towards the end of the regular season, but they’re at full strength heading into the playoffs. Although Thabo Sefolosha and Kent Bazemore are healthy, coach Mike Budenholzer will keep Taurean Prince and Tim Hardaway Jr. in the starting lineup. They’re facing one of the worst defenses in the NBA; Washington posted the fourth-worst defensive rating after the break (110.7) while playing at the eighth-fastest pace (100.78), they allowed the second-highest field goal percentage to opponents (48.4%), and had the ninth-lowest rebounding rate (49.1%).

We don’t have enough data to see how Sefolosha will respond to his demotion, but Bazemore has been excellent off the bench. Across 124.0 minutes in the six games he’s played since returning, he leads the team in per-minute production (1.19 DK ppm), which represents a ridiculous 0.36 DK ppm increase. He’s a volatile player though, and that return hasn’t been consistent. His big games come with scoring, and this is a favorable matchup. He loves shooting from mid-range and above the break, 47.7% of his field goal attempts come from those zones. Since the break, Washington has allowed the second-highest field goal percentage from mid-range (43.6%) and the fourth-highest from above the break (37.5%). Bazemore only eclipsed 20 minutes twice in the past six outings, which is the larger concern. His playing time should rise in the playoffs, but he remains a gamble in fantasy. Unlike Saturday’s slate, Sunday’s contests have a nice selection of shooting guards; Bazemore makes for a potential sneaky, high-risk value option.

The guy starting ahead of Bazemore, Tim Hardaway Jr., enjoys shooting above-the-break threes even more, 37.6% of his total shots come from there alone; he’ll undoubtedly enjoy Washington’s inability to effectively defend his spot. He’s been playing a lot of minutes since Bazemore went down with an injury and he’s delivered some nice fantasy performances in that time, but most of that stretch was without Millsap. When he shares the floor with both Millsap and Howard, his usage drops 3.1% and his per-36 pace takes a slight hit of 1.63 DK points, falling to 29.38. He’s in a similar price range as Dwyane Wade, Avery Bradley, and Victor Oladipo. With Atlanta at full health, it’s hard to find Hardaway more appealing than someone like Wade, who leads his team in usage and per-minute fantasy production on the floor – especially considering Wade’s minute restriction will be raised into the low 30s Sunday. Hardaway appears to best suited for a contrarian pivot play in GPPs.

Another player that may have some playing time issues is Dwight Howard, who played fewer minutes this season when Millsap was healthy. Given this is the playoffs, he should have a more secure floor than normal. His per-minute fantasy production is the highest on the team (1.16 DK ppm) and he stands to benefit the most from Washington’s poor rebounding – he grabs 23.5% of the total rebounds available when he’s on the floor, the fourth-highest rate in the league. In four meetings this year, he averaged 14.75 rebound and 14.25 points, double-doubling each time, despite playing 30 or fewer minutes in three of them. He should be able to dominate the glass, and if he gets shooting opportunities, he could deliver a great fantasy performance. Jusuf Nurkic (leg) is questionable, and if he’s out, Howard will stand out as the premiere option at center on FanDuel and second to Draymond Green on DraftKings. Howard’s partner down low, Millsap, is a top target at power forward as it’s the weakest position on the slate. He only played 23 minutes in a blowout loss the last time he played Washington, but he averaged 41.5 DK points in the previous two meetings. His shot distribution is pretty evenly dispersed across the floor except for corner threes, which he rarely shoots, so he’s capable of attacking the soft areas in Washington’s defense – that’s pretty much anywhere outside of corner threes (they’re a top five team in both corners). As with Howard, he’ll benefit from playing a poor rebounding squad.

Unlike Millsap, Dennis Schroder has struggled against the Wizards this season – 15.3 points and 4.0 assists across four contests. He’s been held under 27 DK points in three of the four contests and his best score was 31.25 DK points back in November. A part of the problem was his inability to generate more than six assists in any game. As a team, Washington doesn’t give up many assists – 22.8 per game on the season (15th) and 21.0 over the last five (10th). Another concern: it’s going to be bad for his production if Howard picks up more minutes. When both Howard and Millsap are on the floor together, Schroder’s usage drops 2.1% and his per-36 pace falls 3.74 DK points to 33.65. Point guard is stacked on this slate, so it may be better to look elsewhere.

More minutes for Howard will cause Taurean Prince’s value to drop as well. Although we only have a small sample of 70.8 minutes, Prince’s per-36 pace plummeted 8.02 DK points to 18.94 in that time. Prince is starting because of his defense, not for his offense – his 2.23 DRPM is seventh among 81 qualifying small forwards while his -3.79 ORPM is 80th. In cash games, it’s probably best to pay up at small forward, and if looking for a punt GPP play, Kent Bazemore and Andre Iguodala (FD only) could provide nice alternatives.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Dennis Schroder $7,200 $7,300 $13,700 0.95 31.5 -2.7 30.0 -3.3 30.3% -7.1% 9 -0.83
Tim Hardaway $5,500 $5,600 $11,100 0.80 27.3 4.2 21.8 9.8 22.4% -0.8% 16 -0.94
Taurean Prince $4,300 $4,700 $9,200 0.70 16.6 11.1 11.7 5.0 17.0% 0.0% 17 0.03
Paul Millsap $7,500 $7,100 $13,300 1.03 34.0 -4.7 35.0 -3.2 24.9% 4.1% 22 1.54
Dwight Howard $7,400 $6,800 $12,700 1.10 29.7 -6.5 32.7 -5.7 18.6% 6.1% 20 1.33
Ersan Ilyasova $4,400 $4,700 $9,200 0.89 26.1 -4.7 23.3 -2.6 21.7% 2.9% 22 N/A

Elite Plays – Dwight Howard, Paul Millsap

Secondary Plays – Tim Hardaway Jr. (GPP), Kent Bazemore (GPP)

Washington Wizards

John Wall turned up the heat to close out the regular season. Over the final four weeks, his usage was up 2.2% to 34.6% and his per-36 production rose 3.21 DK points to 51.10. He’s been an assist machine all year, assisting on 46.9% of his teammates’ made field goals while he’s on the floor, which is the third-highest rate in the league. He has a nice matchup with the Hawks, as they allowed the seventh-most assists per game (25.0) after the all-star break. Wall has contributed at least nine assists in three of four meetings with Atlanta this season. He also picked up at least two steals in three of those games, and had four in two. Wall leads the league in steals per game this season (2.1), which is a factor in his upside. Fortunately, he’s a got a great series for forcing turnovers as the Hawks allowed the second-most steals per game (9.0). The concern with this matchup is with his scoring. Wall averages 23.1 points on the year, but he’s averaged 18.5 against the Hawks while being held to 22 or fewer points all four times. Wall’s favorite zones to attack are the restricted area (51.2% of his made field goals) and mid-range (26.4%). With Millsap and Howard down low, the Hawks have allowed the fifth-lowest FG% from the restricted area this season (57.9%) and improved to first (57.2%) after the break. They’re worse from mid-range, ranking 26th on the season (41.8%), but they were fifth after all-star weekend (38.9%). Wall could certainly have trouble finding success, which makes him a borderline elite play. Given his recent play and his expected boost in minutes for the playoffs, he’ll remain in that category.

Elite rim protection will have a negative effect on starting center Marcin Gortat as well, 66.4% of his made buckets come from inside the restricted area. He’s an interesting player on this slate as his price tag is a little too low considering Ian Mahinmi (calf) is out. Mahinmi missed the first few months of the season, which allowed Gortat to routinely play more than 30 minutes a night. Upon his return, he immediately cut into Gortat’s workload, dropping him into the mid-20s most games. As a result, his production and salary fell. He’s managed success against Howard and the Hawks this season, pulling down at least 11 rebounds all three times he played them prior to Mahinmi’s return while averaging 10.3 points on 63.6% shooting. On the season, his per-36 pace is 31.38 DK points; since he could approach that type of playing time, he’s worth consideration Sunday, despite the tough matchup.

Atlanta’s defense is strong as whole, not just around the basket. Their 103.1 defensive rating was fourth this year and they turned it up a notch to 102.7 in the second half of the season while allowing the third-lowest field goal percentage overall (43.7%) and posting a 51.0% rebounding percentage (eighth-highest rate). Although the Hawks’ defense isn’t overtly poor in any category, they are mediocre defending three-pointers, ranking 16th in opponent 3P% (35.7). This is where Otto Porter would come in, if we can project him to get enough time on the floor. Porter was fourth in the league this season from beyond the arc, hitting 43.4% of his attempts. It’s his favorite place to shoot, accounting for 42.3% of his shot attempts. Porter could be a sneaky option, but he’ll need to get the time. After logging heavy minutes all season, often playing into the mid-30s, he began to see his workload dwindle into the mid-to-low-20s in the latter part of March as Washington made a point to get Kelly Oubre and Bojan Bogdanovic plenty of action. Now that Washington is in the playoffs, we should see Bojan’s minutes fall sharply and Porter’s extend past 30 again. If that happens, it could be a good thing for Wall as well: a ridiculous 96.6% of Porter’s made three-pointers were assisted, and 54.7% of his assisted field goals came from Mr. Wall.

Of course, Washington has another big three-ball guy in Bradley Beal, who fires from deep 41.7% of the time. He’s better at creating his own shot than Porter – 80.6% of his made three-pointers were assisted – but Wall got the assist credit 64.3% of Beal’s assisted buckets. Considering Beal is also a 40.0% shooter from three, Wall could contribute plenty of assists between him and Porter, especially if Washington needs to shoot more three-pointers than normal in this series. Beal is appealing target himself, who could push towards 40 minutes a night. He’s volatile as he’s a scoring dependent player, but he returned 1.02 DK ppm this season on average and maintained a 0.99 DK ppm rate over the past four weeks as Wall took over. Although a sizable chunk of his scoring comes from within the restricted area (33.2% of his made field goals), it’s not nearly as large a concern as with Wall. As expected with his style of play, his performance against the Hawks has been a mixed bag, but he’s scored 28 actual points in two of four matchups and he posted a monster performance in their last meeting, going off for 52.75 DK points.

Starting power forward Markieff Morris has also fared well against ATL, averaging 33.94 DK points and scoring at least 28.25 in each contest. He’s $500 cheaper on DraftKings than FanDuel and his $5,000 salary seems too low. He should play around 36 minutes and his per-36 pace remained strong relative to cost over the final four weeks at 29.53 DK points, although it was a bit less than his season average. He’s a more flexible shooter than the rest of the starters in the sense that his shot distribution is more evenly split across the floor. That’s a good skillset to have against a team who can take certain zones away. Rebounding is a concern, but he’s managed to grab at least seven against the Hawks three times this season. Given the overall poor quality at the position and his price, he’s a strong secondary option.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
John Wall $10,100 $9,700 $17,900 1.24 36.4 -2.1 45.3 -3.5 34.8% 0.3% 24 -2.53
Bradley Beal $7,500 $7,200 $13,700 0.94 34.9 0.6 32.9 1.9 26.4% -0.7% 25 -1.35
Otto Porter $5,000 $5,300 $10,500 0.82 32.6 -11.8 26.7 -8.2 14.8% 3.6% 28 2.66
Markieff Morris $5,500 $5,000 $9,900 0.83 31.2 -4.9 26.1 -0.8 19.8% 4.3% 8 3.29
Marcin Gortat $4,800 $4,100 $8,100 0.85 31.2 -5.1 26.4 -2.8 14.7% 0.1% 7 2.92
Kelly Oubre $4,000 $3,600 $7,100 0.61 20.3 9.9 12.4 8.8 13.9% 1.8% 28 N/A

Elite Plays – John Wall, Bradley Beal

Secondary Plays – Markieff Morris, Otto Porter (GPP; until we see what they do with his minutes), Marcin Gortat

Portland Trail Blazers at Golden State Warriors – 3:30 PM ET

Portland Trail Blazers Golden State Warriors
portlandnba Vegas Total 220.5 goldenstatenba Vegas Total 220.5
Vegas Spread 14.5 Vegas Spread -14.5
Team Total 103.0 Team Total 117.5
Pace +/- 3.5 Pace +/- 0.4
Proj. Starter Damian Lillard C.J. McCollum Maurice Harkless Noah Vonleh Meyers Leonard Proj. Starter Stephen Curry Klay Thompson Kevin Durant Draymond Green Zaza Pachulia
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 3 14 5 21 12 Adj. DvP 10 6 11 25 18
DRPM 0.24 -0.91 1.35 5.08 3.61 DRPM -1.39 -1.93 0.33 1.30 0.17

Portland Trail Blazers

UPDATE: Jusuf Nurkic has been ruled OUT for today.

The biggest question mark with Portland is surrounding Jusuf Nurkic’s (leg, questionable) playing status. As of this writing, they haven’t given hints in either direction. His presence makes a big difference in fantasy. Not only would he become a top option at center (if he’s not limited), but he would damage the values of both C.J. McCollum and Al-Farouq Aminu. McCollum’s usage drops substantially – 5.2% to 23.8% – and his per-minute production falls 0.13 FD ppm to 0.83. Aminu’s usage only decreases slightly – 1.6% to 14.6% – but his per-minute production tanks 0.14 FD ppm to 0.61. Not to mention Aminu would play fewer minutes.

Nurkic’s situation is one of the most important stories to follow tomorrow before lock. If he is playing without a restriction, he could be a great target. 93.0% of his made field goals come from within eight feet of the hoop and Golden State allowed the highest number of field goals from that area after the break (31.5 per game). However, they were ninth in allowed field goal percentage inside that zone (59.6%). It’s been no matter for Nurkic; he’s connected on 76.9% of his shots against them this season, although he only faced them as a member of the Nuggets.

The lone fantasy-relevant player on the team that isn’t negatively impacted by Nurkic is Damian Lillard, who experiences a slight 0.03 uptick in FD ppm despite a 1.3% drop in usage. He’s in a tough matchup with Golden State, but there’s no denying he’s been playing some great basketball lately. Over the past four weeks, he’s delivered 47.39 FD points per 36 minutes, which is a bump of 5.9, and his usage is up 1.8% to 34.9%. There’s little doubt he pushes towards 40 minutes in the playoffs. However, his numbers hinge on his high scoring, he’s set a pace of 29.9 points per 36 minutes. Here’s the bad news: Golden State has allowed the lowest field goal percentage overall (43.5%) and from three (32.4%) and they posted the second-lowest defensive rating (101.1) this season. On the bright side, they run at the fourth-fastest pace and, as a result, they allowed the seventh-most field goal attempts. Lillard should still get off plenty of shots. Fortunately, his three-point shooting percentage rises from 34.9% at home to 39.0% on the road while his free throw rate climbs a touch as well, from 88.4% to 90.7%. A big part of Lillard’s scoring comes from free throws, as he took the ninth-most in the league and the Warriors aren’t anything special in terms of stopping opponents from getting to the line; they’re 15th (23.2 FTA per game). Lillard has shown an ability to score on the Warriors, dropping 31 points on them in one of their three meetings, but couldn’t exceed 20 in the other two. Based on the way he’s playing lately and the expected pace of the game, he’s an elite option.

Unlike Lillard, McCollum’s value will depend on Nurkic’s status, based on his severe drop in production. McCollum hasn’t been playing well in general over the past four weeks, as his per-36 pace dropped 3.01 FD points to 31.66. His $6,800 salary seems pretty inviting on the surface, but he’s more scoring dependent than Lillard. After scoring 25.8 per game in January, his scoring has dropped each month, falling to 19.6 over the five games in April. He only shot 40.4% from the field over those five, so he could be due for some positive regression. It’s clearly a tough matchup for any shooter, but McCollum has thrived the past two meetings, averaging 31.5 points and even added some peripherals (eight rebounds and four assists per game). Both of those games were in January, his best month of the season; he averaged 13.0 points in the two meetings prior. Considering everything, McCollum seems like a secondary option if Nurkic is out. If Nurkic is in, McCollum isn’t all that appealing. On DraftKings, Bradley Beal is only $200 more and Dwyane Wade, who’s expected to play in the low 30s, is $1,100 less ($800 less on FanDuel).

We’ll also want to consider Al-Farouq Aminu if Nurkic remains out, as he should push into the 30s time-wise. Over the last four weeks, his usage is up 1.4% and his per-36 pace is 2.10 FD points above his average, bringing it to 29.14. That’s a great return on his $5,100 salary. Noah Vonleh would be another cheap guy to look at. He put together two nice games to close out the season, including a 19-rebound performance, but his minutes were inflated with players resting and injured. Even if Nurkic is out, he’ll most likely be stuck below 30 minutes. It’s true that there are few viable punt plays at power forward and he’s one of them. Taj Gibson and Ryan Anderson are in the same price range and could offer better returns though. All in all, it may be better to spend up at the position. Over at small forward, Portland will start Moe Harkless, but he’ll be in a time share with Evan Turner. Allen Crabbe is returning to the lineup and he’ll cut into both of their minutes, and he should play the most of the three. With Nurkic off the floor over the past four weeks, Crabbe has set a per-36 pace of 27.47 FD points, which is 6.16 above his average. That type of production warrants consideration as a GPP punt play. However, 44.2% of his made field goals come from 24+ feet away from the hoop and the Warriors allowed the lowest field goal percentage from that distance (32.7%), which means Crabbe is more of a flier.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Damian Lillard $9,400 $8,900 $16,400 1.16 35.9 1.6 41.5 6.3 32.7% 3.7% 3 0.24
C.J. McCollum $6,800 $7,000 $13,300 0.95 34.9 -0.1 33.3 -6.1 27.7% 0.3% 14 -0.91
Maurice Harkless $3,600 $3,700 $7,300 0.69 28.9 -0.5 19.8 -5.7 14.7% -4.7% 5 1.35
Noah Vonleh $4,200 $4,400 $8,700 0.70 17.1 12.9 11.9 10.0 12.6% -2.5% 21 5.08
Meyers Leonard $3,700 $3,500 $7,000 0.69 16.5 11.4 11.4 5.1 15.6% -4.1% 12 3.61
Al-Farouq Aminu $5,100 $5,100 $10,200 0.75 29.1 2.5 21.9 -1.0 15.2% -0.1% 5 N/A

Elite Plays – Damian Lillard, Jusuf Nurkic (if playing without a minutes restriction)

Secondary Plays – C.J. McCollum (if Nurkic out), C.J. McCollum (FD, if Nurkic in), Al-Farouq Aminu (if Nurkic out), Allen Crabbe

Golden State Warriors

The Warriors are healthy heading into the playoffs (outside of a couple minor players). Kevin Durant was able to get in three games prior to the postseason after missing all of March, and he looked sharp in the finale. Although he went 0-for-9 from three in the first two games, he nailed 5-of-7 against the Lakers in the last game. He’s probably pretty happy with their first-round draw, as he clobbered the Trail Blazers this season, scoring 30+ points against them three times and double-doubling twice. All four matchups came before the all-star break, which matters, because Portland’s defense improved quite a bit in the latter half of the year. After ranking 26th with a 109.0 defensive rating before the break, they were the tenth-best defense after it, with a 105.4 defensive rating. A big part of that was due to their success defending three-pointers. Before the break, they were 28th, allowing opponents to make 38.1% of their shots from deep. After it, they were 10th, cutting that percentage down to 34.4%. This of course affects Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson in addition to Durant. Portland didn’t permit many assists either, they allowed the third-fewest (19.6 per game) after all-star weekend. That’s not great for an offense that derives a lot of its fantasy production through assists – Golden State leads the league with 30.4 assists per game. On top of that, opponents grabbed the sixth-fewest rebounds per game against them in the second half of the year (42.2). This matchup with Portland may not be as big a fantasy goldmine as it appears to be based on their season-long statistics.

Forgetting about the defense for a moment, it’s worth taking a look at their offense with Durant on the floor. They’re going to operate differently than they have in a while. As expected, Curry’s usage takes a big hit with Durant, dropping 3.1% to 27.9%, and he moves to second in the stat behind KD (29.3%). At the same time, his per-36 production rate drops 3.43 FD points to 41.69. Klay Thompson doesn’t fare much better, his usage falls 2.7% to 25.2% and his per-36 pace decreases by 2.95 FD points to 29.87. Green, on the other hand, stays steady with his production (38.61 FD points), but his usage does drop 1.6% to 15.0%. Durant’s per-36 pace of 48.77 FD points leads the team and he’s only $8,800 on DraftKings, which is simply too low. Strong buy. Even at $9,800 on FanDuel, he’s a bit cheaper than Jimmy Butler, who has a lower output than Durant, especially when he’s playing alongside Wade and Rondo. Plus, the rest of the position is pretty weak.

We have a few more top options at point guard. We know what Curry can do when he gets hot and there’s something about Oracle Arena during the playoffs that makes it hard to fade him. This year, his ceiling will be capped by Durant’s presence. Curry has only scored 40 or more points in five games, two of which were while Durant was sidelined, after doing that 13 times last season. His season-high was 46 points – last year he dropped 46 or more six times. You get it. On FanDuel’s main slate, one could argue Curry is “elite” depending on their definition of the term, as there are only four guys priced over $6,000 – those other three are the leading fantasy guys on their teams, Curry is not. On DraftKings, there are plenty of options at the position.

As for the other guys, Green is the top power forward on the slate, and if Nurkic doesn’t play, he’s right up there with Dwight Howard as a top center on DraftKings. Thompson’s numbers with Durant are too weak for his asking price. Paying up for Beal on DraftKings or down to Wade on either site seems like a better option.

Outside of the big four, one other player should push 30 minutes each night: Andre Iguodala. Over the last two years, he averaged about the same minutes per game during the regular season as he has this year, 26 and change. In previous postseasons, he averaged over 30 minutes; last year he hit 32. We know that Golden State depleted their bench to get Durant and now they’re a little short-handed with Matt Barnes out. Barnes’ injury should ensure Iggy pushes past 30 minutes. Over the last four weeks, he’s been playing really well. His usage is up 4.1% to 15.9% and his FD ppm has risen 0.18 to 0.94, which would provide a great return on his salary. Of course, he was aided by Durant’s absence, but he only plays about half his minutes with KD, so he should get some run without him. Last season, he used his added time in the playoffs to improve his stats across the board. It’s nothing crazy, but he’ll be getting a lot of time on the court for a guy who costs $4,200 on FanDuel and $4,300 on DraftKings.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Stephen Curry $9,000 $8,700 $16,000 1.25 33.4 -2.5 41.6 5.5 31.3% 3.6% 10 -1.39
Klay Thompson $7,000 $6,700 $12,600 0.91 34.0 -3.3 30.9 4.0 24.6% 4.4% 6 -1.93
Kevin Durant $9,800 $8,800 $16,300 1.36 33.4 -3.2 45.5 -4.4 28.0% -1.7% 11 0.33
Draymond Green $6,800 $6,900 $13,000 1.06 32.5 -7.9 34.6 -13.0 19.3% 1.6% 25 1.30
Zaza Pachulia $3,600 $2,600 $6,000 0.96 18.1 1.2 17.4 -2.2 15.7% -2.3% 18 0.17
Andre Iguodala $4,200 $4,300 $8,500 0.75 26.3 -3.9 19.7 -0.4 13.2% 4.0% 11 N/A

Elite Plays – Kevin Durant, Draymond Green

Secondary Plays – Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, Andre Iguodala

Chicago Bulls at Boston Celtics – 6:30 PM ET

Chicago Bulls Boston Celtics
chicagonba Vegas Total 206.5 bostonnba Vegas Total 206.5
Vegas Spread 6.0 Vegas Spread -6.0
Team Total 100.3 Team Total 106.3
Pace +/- 0.6 Pace +/- -1.0
Proj. Starter Rajon Rondo Dwyane Wade Jimmy Butler Nikola Mirotic Robin Lopez Proj. Starter Isaiah Thomas Avery Bradley Jae Crowder Amir Johnson Al Horford
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 18 11 13 24 21 Adj. DvP 22 13 15 19 4
DRPM -4.21 -1.13 1.37 3.79 1.59 DRPM -0.67 -0.63 1.86 1.19 0.24

Chicago Bulls

The Bulls are nearing full strength as Rajon Rondo is ready to roll after missing three games towards the end of the season and Dwyane Wade’s restriction is easing – he’s expected to play over 30 minutes tonight. When those two share the court with Jimmy Butler, Wade leads in usage (27.5%) and returns 34.57 per 36 minutes, while Butler’s falls 4.3% and his per-36 pace dramatically decreases by 8.24 DK points to 34.51. Rondo’s usage drops 1.7%, resulting in his per-36 pace taking a 4.11-point hit to 31.80 DK points. The other two guys expected to exceed 30 minutes, Robin Lopez and Nikola Mirotic, post 31.52 and 34.94 DK points per 36 minutes, respectively (Mirotic’s sample size is relatively small at 101.5 minutes). The good news for Butler is he’ll play the most on the team and push towards 40 minutes.

Boston’s defense had some solid numbers in the second half of the season: they held opponents to 44.5% from the field (fifth) and 31.2% from three (second). That helped them to a defensive rating of 104.0 (seventh), but they played at the sixth-fastest pace (100.83). They were middle of the road in opponent rebounds (44.0 per game, 17th) and 11th in assists allowed (22.2 per game). Boston had trouble with fouling, allowing the fourth-most free throw attempts per game (25.2), which will help Butler the most, as he took the third most free throws in the NBA this season (8.9 per game). This is important considering he’s an 87% shooter from the line and 32.2% of his scoring came from free throws. Butler is fourth in steals (1.9 per game) and Boston gave up the tenth-most steals per game (8.2) after the break. Another stat that could work in his favor is Boston allowing a 41.4% field goal percentage from mid-range (23rd), Butler’s favorite zone on the floor. Although it should be noted that they did improve after the break, allowing 39.9% from the area (11th). He should be able to score, but Wade’s presence will cap his ceiling, and Durant looks like a better play at a lower salary. Either way, there are only two small forwards above $6,000 on FanDuel and not a ton of value. On DraftKings, Porter and Bazemore present a couple extra cheap plays and Durant is $1,400 cheaper. Butler is an elite play on both sites, but he’s a stronger target on FD.

Rondo threw up some big games while Wade was gone and he has a favorable matchup in terms of DvP and opponent DRPM. Unlike most players, Rondo gets plenty of peripherals and his ceiling games come when he’s scoring points. He’s shot well from three this season (37.9%), but he needs to get to the basket to put up a lot of points – 47.6% of his made field goals are from the restricted area. It’s possible against Boston, they were 14th in FGA in the restricted area (27.6) and 19th in field goal percentage allowed (62.6%) in the second half of the year. Even when he shares the court with Wade and Butler he takes a similar number of shots (he loses 0.86 FGA per 36 minutes), but he does lose 1.73 assists per 36, which is a bit concerning. All in all, he’s the best mid-range point guard on the slate (there aren’t many) and pairing him with an elite option is a nice way to save cap space for other positions. Similarly, Wade is a solid mid-range shooting guard, although some may find him a bit too risky for cash lineups when considering his injury. After averaging 18.5 ppg in the first two meetings with the Celtics, he scored five in the third, but in the last one he only played 25 minutes in a blowout loss. As with Butler, his favorite shots are from mid-range, which is a potentially exploitable area in this matchup. He also loves attacking the restricted area, both zones combined account for 72.3% of his made field goals. Avery Bradley isn’t a great defender (-1.13 DRPM) either, so Wade should be able to score points. In terms of categorizing Wade and Rondo, it depends on one’s definition of “elite.” These guys could provide great points-per-dollar value relative to other players in their price range but probably won’t lead their respective positions in raw points.

The other two starters are potential mid-range options as well. Nikola Mirotic is wildly inconsistent, primarily because he lives and dies by the three-ball – 60.1% of his shots are from deep. As mentioned before, Boston has been excellent defending three-pointers this season, so it may not be the best spot to go after Mirotic. Boston may rank 24th in DvP against his position, but he plays differently than most power forwards. Still, he’s going to get plenty of minutes and power forward isn’t very deep. Robin Lopez has topped 22 DK points in seven of his last nine, and 27 in five. He doesn’t have much of a ceiling, but he does earn an extra 2.41 DK points per 36 minutes when sharing the floor with Wade, Butler, and Rondo. He’s under $5,000 on DraftKings, but Marcin Gortat and Steven Adams are even cheaper than him and seem like more appealing secondary options.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Rajon Rondo $6,000 $6,000 $11,900 0.93 26.7 -4.3 24.8 0.5 22.7% 1.1% 18 -4.21
Dwyane Wade $6,000 $5,900 $11,600 1.05 29.9 -6.9 31.3 -12.3 30.6% 1.2% 11 -1.13
Jimmy Butler $10,000 $10,200 $18,300 1.14 37.0 -0.9 42.1 -0.5 28.7% 1.0% 13 1.37
Nikola Mirotic $5,800 $5,800 $11,500 0.87 24.0 3.5 21.0 8.2 19.3% 2.5% 24 3.79
Robin Lopez $5,000 $4,800 $9,500 0.77 28.0 0.8 21.7 2.8 17.3% 3.0% 21 1.59

Elite Plays – Jimmy Butler

Secondary Plays – Rajon Rondo, Dwyane Wade, Robin Lopez, Nikola Mirotic

Boston Celtics

Isaiah Thomas may not play in this game as his sister passed away in a car accident Saturday. It was such terrible news and our thoughts are with him and his family. It’s possible we don’t know his status until game time, which isn’t until 3:30 eastern.

In the event he doesn’t play, Marcus Smart would likely start. Smart sees a solid usage bump of 5.0% when IT is off the floor and his per-36 pace rises 4.26 DK points to 34.97. Avery Bradley, using an extra 2.5% usage, leads the team in the category (25.5%). Jae Crowder and Al Horford see bumps of 2.9% and 1.9%, respectively. Horford leads the team with a per-36 rate of 42 DK points in this situation (an increase of 4.17) while Crowder’s 3.15-point bump puts him on par with Bradley, both of whom return roughly 33 DK points per 36 minutes. All of these guys would become great plays; Horford would be an elite center, Bradley the top mid-range shooting guard, Crowder the top mid-range small forward, and Smart would be up there with Rondo at point guard for a lower salary. Terry Rozier would see a bump in minutes in this scenario, which makes him an interesting value play on DraftKings at $2,200. He produces 0.82 DK ppm, so getting into the 20s would allow him to provide a great return on his salary.

If Thomas plays, these guys are still solid options at their positions based on their prices, but they will have a tough opponent. Chicago had the second-best defensive rating after the break (102.2) while allowing the fourth-lowest shooting percentage (44.4%) and the lowest from three (30.7%). On the plus side, opponents grabbed the seventh-most rebounds (45.1 per game), which would help Boston’s leading rebounders, Al Horford (6.8 rpg), Avery Bradley (6.1 rpg), and Jae Crowder (5.8 rpg).

In terms of shooting, the Bulls we’re strong defending most areas of the floor besides mid-range, where they ranked 27th in field goal percentage (42.8%). This will benefit Bradley and Horford the most, as 25.3% and 24.3% of their made field goals come from that zone, respectively, as opposed to Crowder’s 16.2%, Thomas’ 10.9%, and Smart’s 12.3%. The latter three guys are big three-point or attack-the-basket players. Not only Is Chicago proficient at defending shots from deep, they ranked 5th in FG% in the restricted area after the break (58.2%). Additionally, Thomas shot the fifth most free throws (8.5 per game) and 27.0% of his scoring came from the line, but Chicago won’t make it easy for him to get there, they’ve allowed the third-fewest free throw attempts per game (19.7) since the break.

Even with these strong numbers, Chicago is 22nd in DvP against point guards, in part due to Rondo’s lackluster individual defense. Thomas will remain an elite option, especially at this price point, but his ceiling won’t be as high as normal. Although they’re both really nice options at their prices, choosing between Crowder and Bradley is difficult. Crowder has been playing better recently, but Bradley’s mid-range game could help him here, plus, he gets a better individual matchup as Butler is a better defender than Wade.

As for the others, Amir Johnson and Kelly Olynyk could be in a time-share and it’s very possible neither will get enough minutes to be viable options. There’s no reason to dig into the bench beyond Smart unless Thomas is out.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Isaiah Thomas $8,200 $8,100 $15,000 1.19 33.8 -2.9 40.4 -2.3 34.9% 2.2% 22 -0.67
Avery Bradley $5,800 $6,100 $12,000 0.84 33.4 -0.1 28.1 -5.9 21.5% -3.5% 13 -0.63
Jae Crowder $6,000 $5,900 $11,600 0.79 32.4 0.1 25.7 3.5 16.9% 0.2% 15 1.86
Amir Johnson $3,900 $3,700 $7,300 0.82 20.1 -2.4 16.5 0.5 14.3% 1.3% 19 1.19
Al Horford $6,700 $6,300 $12,600 1.00 32.3 -3.7 32.2 -4.9 21.6% 0.6% 4 0.24
Marcus Smart $5,100 $4,900 $9,700 0.80 30.4 -0.4 24.2 3.8 20.7% -3.2% 22 N/A

Elite Plays – Isaiah Thomas

Secondary Plays – Avery Bradley, Al Horford, Jae Crowder, Marcus Smart – all would be elite if Thomas out

Oklahoma City Thunder at Houston Rockets – 9:00 PM ET

Oklahoma City Thunder Houston Rockets
oklahomacitynba Vegas Total 227.5 houstonnba Vegas Total 227.5
Vegas Spread 7.0 Vegas Spread -7.0
Team Total 110.3 Team Total 117.3
Pace +/- 3.8 Pace +/- 1.8
Proj. Starter Russell Westbrook Victor Oladipo Andre Roberson Taj Gibson Steven Adams Proj. Starter Patrick Beverley James Harden Trevor Ariza Ryan Anderson Clint Capela
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 25 26 23 27 26 Adj. DvP 4 19 16 10 11
DRPM 1.89 -1.81 1.54 -0.16 1.25 DRPM -0.59 1.64 2.47 2.10 1.42

Oklahoma City Thunder

Westbrook vs. Harden. In the playoffs. What more could you want? This game will be great from a fan’s perspective and it’s also looking pretty good for fantasy. As you can see from our fancy chart, Houston has really bad DvP rankings across the board, which is a great start for the Thunder’s outlook. They played at the third-highest pace this year and posted a 106.4 defensive rating (17th), they allowed the fourth-most field goal attempts to opponents (88.9), the eighth-highest field goal percentage (46.3%), the ninth-most made three-pointers (10.0 per game), the fourth-most assists, the 12th-most rebounds (44.1 per game), the 12th-most blocks (5.0), and the seventh-most steals (8.5). Wow, that’s a long list. They’re a fantasy gold mine and they’re matching up with the triple-double machine, Russell Westbrook. We all know what the kid can do, it’s just a matter of deciding if his price is worth it. While it’s hard to say no, there isn’t a whole lot of value on this slate.

Surprisingly, Westbrook’s per-minute production fell 0.11 FD ppm to 1.58 (what a slacker) in 148.2 minutes against the Rockets this season, but his usage did tick up 1.9% to 45.6%. Enes Kanter enjoyed the biggest boost in per-minute production, rising all the way to 1.38 across 74 minutes in the matchup. Steven Adams and Victor Oladipo improved their rates by 0.09 and 0.05 FD ppm, respectively, while their usage rates remained steady. Taj Gibson’s sample is only 17.4 minutes, but he did very well, returning 1.11 FD ppm. On the season, he’s produced 0.79 FD ppm in 481.7 minutes as a member of the Thunder. These are the guys worth targeting on OKC.

Since it’s the playoffs, we can expect Westbrook to soak up at least a little more usage than before, which will negatively impact the rest of the group. Kanter should still command a high-usage rate when he’s on the floor though, it’s been the second-highest on the team this season. He won’t get the type of minutes that Adams and Oladipo will get, but he’s an enticing option on a slate with a weak power forward selection. Houston is particularly bad defending shots within five feet of the hoop, they rank dead last, allowing opponents to connect on 64.5% of their attempts. That happens to be Kanter’s favorite spot, 76.4% of his made baskets are from within five feet. Adams is just under that rate, 75.1% of his buckets are from the area. This is part of the reason they both saw their numbers increase against the Rockets this season. Adams should play into the 30s and his price on both major sites seems too low. 74.3% of Gibson’s baskets are from within five feet as well, which is part of the reason he’s an interesting tournament value play.

While the Rockets defend the three well, allowing the third-lowest shooting percentage (34.3%), teams tend to take more deep shots on them, which is good for Oladipo and Westbrook, both of whom shoot threes quite a bit and attack the basket. They should also benefit from Houston’s mediocre rebounding and tendency to permit a bunch of assists. Again, the primary concern with Oladipo is how much usage he’ll get if/when Westbrook increases his own rate. He’s in play with his favorable matchup, but Wade and Bradley could provide better performance for a similar cost.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Russell Westbrook $13,500 $13,800 $24,600 1.69 34.6 -2.3 58.6 -3.1 45.9% 0.3% 25 1.89
Victor Oladipo $5,500 $5,700 $11,200 0.79 33.2 -1.6 26.2 -3.7 21.7% 1.2% 26 -1.81
Andre Roberson $3,800 $4,000 $7,800 0.60 30.1 -14.9 18.0 -13.5 10.2% -4.6% 23 1.54
Taj Gibson $3,900 $3,800 $7,400 0.82 25.5 -5.0 20.9 -3.0 18.4% 5.6% 27 -0.16
Steven Adams $4,700 $4,400 $8,700 0.82 29.9 -2.8 24.6 -1.7 16.1% 0.2% 26 1.25
Enes Kanter $5,400 $4,600 $9,100 1.12 21.3 -2.1 23.8 -4.1 26.5% 4.7% 27 N/A

Elite Plays – Russell Westbrook

Secondary Plays – Enes Kanter, Steven Adams, Victor Oladipo

Houston Rockets

Houston is favored to win this game by seven points and they’re projected to score 2.0 points above their average. Oklahoma City isn’t a cake walk, they have good defenders across the board and they posted the tenth-best defensive rating this season (105.1). On top of that, they were the best rebounding team in the league, grabbing 53.4% of available rebounds. They ran at the eighth-fastest rate though and allowed the 12th-highest field goal percentage (45.9%).

Clint Capela didn’t seem to be bothered by the Thunder’s solid rebounding when they played this season. Although it’s a small sample of 66.8 minutes, he set a pace for 15.63 rebounds per 36 minutes, which is over 3 rebounds above his average. Overall, his fantasy production increased by 0.12 FD ppm to 1.12. Unfortunately, he probably won’t reach the 30-minute mark as he’ll split time with Nene. He only received 23.9 minutes per game during the regular season, but that should rise at least a little bit in the playoffs. He’s produced at least 24.9 FD points in five consecutive games and at least 22.4 in the past 11, crossing 30 in three outings. His consistency makes him worth consideration in cash games, but he may not have the ceiling to be a great tournament target due to his playing time. Steven Adams doesn’t have the same per-minute production, but he should get a bigger workload to make up for it and he’s much cheaper. Capela’s success against the Thunder is a little suspect given the rebounding rate he’s displayed against the best rebounding team. Nene experienced a similar boost in the stat when facing the Thunder, his usage increased 4.8% and his per-minute production hit 1.10 FD ppm, a 0.13 increase. His normal rate of return is a solid 0.97, and he may be worth a tournament flier on DraftKings at his price. He’s scored over 20 DK points in 13 of his last 20 games, hitting 25 nine times.

With Ryan Anderson back, Lou Williams probably won’t play enough to be valuable in fantasy. Anderson himself offers a possible value play at $4,400 on FanDuel. The problem with him is he shoots a lot of threes – they account for 43.0% of his made field goals – and Oklahoma City has allowed the fourth-fewest three-point attempts this season (24.8). Same with Eric Gordon, 42.4% of his baskets are threes. Gordon is also coming off the bench and will play fewer minutes. As is the trend with the Rockets, Trevor Ariza also relies on his three a ton, they account for 58.5% of his baskets, but he provides more peripherals than the other two and may push towards 36 minutes. On the season, he’s posted a per-36 pace of 5.92 rebounds, 2.27 assists, and 1.9 steals. Across 142.3 minutes against the Thunder, all of those stats rose to 6.07 rebounds, 3.29 assist, and 2.28 steals – his overall fantasy pace came out to 30.18 FD points. Ariza, Jae Crowder, and Al-Farouq Aminu are the only small forwards priced between $4,300 and $9,800, which means he’s one of the best mid-range options by default. If Isaiah Thomas plays, Ariza could be a great option at the position to save some salary. He holds up when compared to options with similar salaries at other positons, like Oladipo, Mirotic, and his teammate Clint Capela. At least in tournaments, as he’s an inconsistent player.

Point guard Patrick Beverly has been hot over the past two weeks. His FD ppm has jumped 0.21 to 1.03 and he’s demonstrated a nice ceiling relative to his price. He also comes with a low floor and he needs assists and rebounds to have his big games – this doesn’t seem like the right matchup, but given the lack of depth on the slate, he’s certainly an interesting tournament option in this fast-paced game.

Finally, there’s the leader of the squad, James Harden. He’s going to play a ton of minutes and we all know what he can do. He played poorly by his standards in the 147.6 minutes he was on the floor against the Thunder, with a per-36 pace of 43.73 FD points, nearly 10 below his average. In four meetings, he only crossed the 50-mark once, and barely did so, scoring 51.6 FD points back in January. That was the regular season and this is the playoffs, with a guy like James Harden, we can safely expect him to increase his own usage rate and put the team on his back. Still, the question is whether that’s enough to beat his salary. So far, he’s struggled against OKC, and perhaps it’s a bad matchup for him. 38.7% of his buckets are threes, and he needs to rack up a ton of rebounds and assists. In addition to being a solid rebounding team, they’ve only allowed 21.4 assists per game, which is the seventh-best rate in the league. Surely, he’ll be one of the top guys in terms of raw points, which will earn him the elite categorization below, and he’s obviously one of the absolute best, but the data we have seems to say he’ll have trouble being valuable in terms of points-per-dollar, and he may not be worth squeezing in on this particular slate. Instead, it may be a better strategy to go all the way to Westbrook, who has a better spot, or stay balanced.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FDRFT Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Patrick Beverley $4,900 $5,400 $10,600 0.82 30.7 0.2 25.2 3.5 16.3% -1.2% 4 -0.59
James Harden $12,200 $12,000 $21,500 1.48 36.4 -2.1 53.9 1.1 38.6% 0.1% 19 1.64
Trevor Ariza $5,500 $5,900 $11,600 0.72 34.7 2.1 25.1 -1.0 14.4% 1.6% 16 2.47
Ryan Anderson $4,400 $4,500 $8,800 0.71 29.4 -7.4 20.9 0.2 17.2% 3.2% 10 2.10
Clint Capela $5,800 $5,600 $11,200 1.08 23.9 1.9 25.9 6.2 19.1% 1.1% 11 1.42
Eric Gordon $4,300 $5,000 $9,800 0.77 31.0 -1.1 23.8 -4.0 22.0% -0.2% 19 N/A
Lou Williams $4,300 $5,500 $10,900 1.03 24.6 2.4 25.4 -5.6 28.9% -4.2% 19 N/A

Elite Plays – James Harden

Secondary Plays – Trevor Ariza, Ryan Anderson, Clint Capela, Nene Hilario (DK), Patrick Beverley (GPP)

About the Author

bryanpauquette
Bryan Pauquette (bryanpauquette)

Bryan Pauquette’s peak in life came in 2002 when he struck out live on the YES network in the New York State Little League championship. Unfortunately, his team lost to a squad that cheated their way to the U.S. Semi-Finals, so he feels forever robbed of a chance to go down swinging on ESPN. As it turns out, he’s much better at fantasy sports than actual ones and he’s been an avid cash game and small-field tournament player since 2015. He joined RotoGrinders in Summer Sixteen as part of their alerts and projections team. Outside of RG, Bryan is a television writer and producer based in the City of Angels (he does not root for any of their teams, but he’s thinking about the Chargers because he’s giving up on the Jets).