NBA Grind Down - Sunday, December 20th - Page Two
Sacramento at Toronto – 06:00 PM
- Vegas Line – No Lines Set for This Game Yet
- Sacramento Proj. Starters – Collison-McLemore-Gay-Casspi-Cousins
- Toronto Proj. Starters – Lowry-DeRozan-Ross-Scola-Biyombo
| Sacramento | Toronto | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total |  | Vegas Total | |||||||||
| Vegas Sprd | Vegas Sprd | |||||||||||
| Team Proj. | Team Proj. | |||||||||||
| Team Pace | 101.8 | Team Pace | 95.94 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Darren Collison | Ben McLemore | Rudy Gay | Omri Casspi | DeMarcus Cousins | Proj Starter | Kyle Lowry | DeMar DeRozan | Terrence Ross | Luis Scola | Bismack Biyombo | |
| Opp. Season | 2 | 21 | 6 | 11 | 16 | Opp. Season | 20 | 25 | 27 | 27 | 25 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 5 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 27 | Opp. Season | 12 | 16 | 26 | 1 | 10 | |
Sacramento
Toronto Raptors Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 96.3 (4 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 99.8 (12 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: 1.8 (8 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 187.9 (5 of 30)
Toronto has been an elite defensive squad so far this year and are ranked in the top five of the league in points and fantasy points allowed so far this year. Sacramento has a 101 implied team total, which is 3.6 points lower than their season average.
Elite Plays
Although it is a pace down game for the Kings, DeMarcus Cousins is an elite play any time he takes the floor. He appears to be fully healthy after some injury concerns at the end of November and has had four straight 40+ fantasy games in a row. He is the top center of the night slate and slightly under Anthony Davis for top star of the night, but with similar upside.
FD — $9,900 — C
DK — $10,000 — PF
Usage – 33.0
This is a time where a play is very site dependent. Anytime a player is under 5k and is going to get you 35+ minutes on a consistent basis, they make for a good play. Casspi is a great example of this as he has played 35+ in each of his last four games. His upside is not tremendous, but should get about 25 fantasy points, which is enough to pay off his salary, especially at FD.
FD — $4,700 — SF
DK — $6,000 — SF
Usage – 16.5
Secondary Plays
Vegas has this game staying a bit closer than expected and if this is going to happen, Rondo is going to need to put up a strong performance. He has come through recently, yet his price has come up due to playing a ton of minutes and filling the stat sheet over the last two weeks, making him just a secondary play against Lowry’s defense.
FD — $8,600 — PG
DK — $8,600 — PG
Usage – 21.6
Toronto
Sacramento Kings Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 107.7 (29 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.4 (26 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: 0.0 (16 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 210.8 (28 of 30)
The Kings are one of the worst defensive teams in the league and are ranked 26th or worse in points allowed per game, fantasy points allowed and defensive efficiency. The Raptors have the second highest projected team total of the day at 106 points, which is 6.2 points higher than their season average.
Elite Plays
I am putting DeRozan above Lowry here due to the price difference and recent play. DeRozan has put up 38+ fantasy points in five of his last six games and is about 1000 dollars cheaper than Lowry today at both sites. Both have great matchups against the Kings today and both should feast on their terrible defense.
Secondary Plays
Lowry has differed a bit to DeRozan recently, but can still fill up a stat sheet with the best of them. He has a great matchup against Rondo and the 19th ranked Kings point guard defense today.
FD — $8,900 — PG
DK — $8,300 — PG
Usage – 26.9
While Scola makes a decent punt play as well, if I am taking one of the two, Biyombo looks to be the safer option. He has played 31+ minutes in each of the last three games and has 13+ rebounds in each of those starts. He does have a tough matchup against Cousins, which does make him a bit riskier, but he just put up 24 fantasy points in a very difficult matchup against the Heat and is a solid punt tonight.
FD — $4,600 — C
DK — $5,100 — C
Usage – 11.6
New Orleans at Denver – 08:00 PM
- Vegas Line – No Lines Set for This Game Yet
- New Orleans Proj. Starters – Evans-Gordon-Cunningham-Anderson-Asik
- Denver Proj. Starters – Nelson-Harris-Gallinari-Faried-Lauvergne
| New Orleans | Denver | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total |  | Vegas Total | |||||||||
| Vegas Sprd | Vegas Sprd | |||||||||||
| Team Proj. | Team Proj. | |||||||||||
| Team Pace | 99.22 | Team Pace | 97.98 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Tyreke Evans | Eric Gordon | Dante Cunningham | Ryan Anderson | Omer Asik | Proj Starter | Jameer Nelson | Gary Harris | Danilo Gallinari | Kenneth Faried | Joffrey Lauvergne | |
| Opp. Season | 28 | 29 | 12 | 18 | 27 | Opp. Season | 29 | 23 | 14 | 21 | 28 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 4 | 27 | 11 | 12 | 12 | Opp. Season | 1 | 19 | 10 | 18 | 22 | |
New Orleans
Denver Nuggets Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 102.6 (21 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.4 (23 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: 1.4 (11 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 205.7 (25 of 30)
The last game on the slate should be a fun one to watch, as two very poor defensive teams will face off in a game that features a 206 overall total. The Pelicans have a 103.5 implied team total, which is slightly higher than their 101.2 season average.
Elite Plays
Davis has a dream matchup today against the Nuggets and their 29th ranked defense against the power forward position. Due to his season inconsistencies, more people may have exposure to Cousins, which could lead to Davis being a bit under owned, but he has just as high of upside in this matchup who he averaged 33.5 points and 11.5 rebounds against in three matchups last year.
FD — $10,400 — PF
DK — $10,300 — PF
Usage – 25.7
Evans has taken a bit of usage away from Davis since returning from injury and has played well since coming back on the first of the month. He has a great matchup against Jameer Nelson and should play better than he did in his 24 minutes against Phoenix on Friday.
FD — $7,000 — PG
DK — $7,600 — SG
Usage – 24.3
Secondary Plays
None
Denver
New Orleans Pelicans Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 107.7 (29 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 108.4 (30 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -3.4 (24 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 207.0 (26 of 30)
The Pelicans have been terrible on the defensive end and are ranked 29th in the league in pints allowed per game at a terrible 107.7. Denver has a high 102.5 implied team total in this matchup, which is almost five points higher than their season average (97.7).
Elite Plays
Nelson has played very well since Mudiay went down and is getting a ton of minutes at a cheap price. He has had at least 21 fantasy points in his last four starts and is still under 5k at FD making him an elite play there.
FD — $4,500 — PG
DK — $5,200 — PG
Usage – 18.3
Secondary Plays
While guys like Faried and Barton are both in play as well today, both have very volatile minutes, which make them more tournament plays than anything. Gallo is going to get close to 35 minutes in this game and even though he has struggled from the field recently, he has 35-40 fantasy point upside if his shot is falling early in this great matchup against the Pelicans.
FD — $6,800 — SF
DK — $6,700 — SF
Usage – 20.4