NBA Grind Down - Sunday, December 20th
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.
Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.
We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.
Every game is also broken down by our NBA experts, providing an overview of the game and a selection of players to consider from each contest.
Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.
Minnesota at Brooklyn – 01:00 PM
- Vegas Line – No Lines Set for This Game Yet
- Minnesota Proj. Starters – Rubio-Martin-Wiggins-Garnett-Towns
- Brooklyn Proj. Starters – Jack-Bogdanovic-Bogdanovic-Young-Lopez
| Minnesota | Brooklyn | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total |  | Vegas Total | |||||||||
| Vegas Sprd | Vegas Sprd | |||||||||||
| Team Proj. | Team Proj. | |||||||||||
| Team Pace | 98.39 | Team Pace | 98.19 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Ricky Rubio | Kevin Martin | Andrew Wiggins | Kevin Garnett | Karl-Anthony Towns | Proj Starter | Jarrett Jack | Bojan Bogdanovic | Bojan Bogdanovic | Thaddeus Young | Brook Lopez | |
| Opp. Season | 27 | 26 | 23 | 5 | 23 | Opp. Season | 21 | 16 | 9 | 14 | 13 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 7 | 17 | 23 | 4 | 29 | Opp. Season | 26 | 20 | 24 | 26 | 11 | |
Minnesota
Brooklyn Nets Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 102.7 (22 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.0 (20 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: 1.3 (12 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 205.2 (24 of 30)
The Nets are in the bottom third of the league in some important defensive categories including points allowed, fantasy points allowed as well as defensive efficiency. The Timberwolves have a decent implied team total of 101, which is slightly lower than their season average (102.1).
Elite Plays
There are a couple of guys that are going to clearly get their allotment of minutes any time they take the floor for the Timberwolves. The first guy is Andrew Wiggins who has played at least 31 minutes in nine of his last ten games. He has been inconsistent with those minutes, but he is coming off one of his best performances of the season against the Kings where he put up 49 fantasy points. There is a bit of risk attached, but has solid upside for a mid-priced small forward.
FD — $6,900 — SF
DK — $7,000 — SG
Usage – 26.6
Rubio is the other guy that is guaranteed minutes in the 30+ range. Rubio is a perfect example of a solid tournament player as he has huge upside each game due to how he can fill up the stat sheet in a number of different ways including an eight steal game this week. He should have his way with Jarrett Jack today and have a solid game to pay off his 35 point salary.
FD — $7,200 — PG
DK — $7,300 — PG
Usage – 20.4
Secondary Plays
While Towns is also a decent play, his minutes have been a bit too inconsistent to trust paying up for his price today. Dieng on the other hand is still cheap, and has had his minutes in the 25-30 range over the last ten games. He has used these minutes very efficiently during this time and should get enough points to pay off his punt salary.
FD — $4,900 — C
DK — $5,300 — C
Usage – 16.5
Brooklyn
Minnesota Timberwolves Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 104.0 (23 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.7 (18 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: 1.5 (10 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 198.5 (18 of 30)
The Timberwolves have been an average defensive squad this year. This game should be solid for daily fantasy purposes as the total is set at 203.5 and should stay close as the spread is set at 1.5 with the Nets small favorites. The Nets have a 102.5 implied team total, which is 6.4 points higher than their season average, the highest jump from season totals of the day.
Elite Plays
Jack makes a great play today as it is clear that he will play a huge amount of minutes with his direct backup, Shane Larkin, out with a concussion. In the last two games he has played 39 and 36 minutes and has put up 52.8 and 41.4 fantasy points. He is a no-brainer today for cash games, since his price has yet to reflect his recent play and makes a solid tournament play as well as his ceiling is 50+.
FD — $6,900 — PG
DK — $6,500 — PG
Usage – 23.1
Secondary Plays
Lopez should be able to take advantage of the young Towns inside today. The Timberwolves are ranked 17th against centers this year and while Lopez has not played too well recently, he should be able to come close to value today in what should be a high-paced matchup against Minnesota.
FD — $7,700 — C
DK — $6,700 — C
Usage – 24.9
Portland at Miami – 01:00 PM
- Vegas Line – No Lines Set for This Game Yet
- Portland Proj. Starters – Lillard-McCollum-Aminu-Vonleh-Plumlee
- Miami Proj. Starters – Dragic-Wade-Deng-Bosh-Whiteside
| Portland | Miami | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total |  | Vegas Total | |||||||||
| Vegas Sprd | Vegas Sprd | |||||||||||
| Team Proj. | Team Proj. | |||||||||||
| Team Pace | 97.52 | Team Pace | 95.54 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Damian Lillard | C.J. McCollum | Al-Farouq Aminu | Noah Vonleh | Mason Plumlee | Proj Starter | Goran Dragic | Dwyane Wade | Luol Deng | Chris Bosh | Hassan Whiteside | |
| Opp. Season | 3 | 3 | 25 | 4 | 10 | Opp. Season | 10 | 17 | 8 | 16 | 30 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 20 | 15 | 9 | 15 | 6 | Opp. Season | 23 | 5 | 30 | 5 | 23 | |
Portland
Miami Heat Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 93.8 (2 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 96.9 (3 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: 1.7 (9 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 185.3 (3 of 30)
Miami has been a tough team to target for daily fantasy purposes this year. They have been a solid defensive team that ranks in the top three in points allowed per game, fantasy points allowed per game and defensive efficiency. Portland has a very low implied team total for this matchup at 94.3 for second lowest on the slate.
With a solid seven game all day slate, the Portland players could be left on the daily fantasy bench due to the very tough matchup. Throughout the season, targeting the guards has been a solid strategy as both Damien Lillard and C.J. McCollum make up so much of the Blazers offense. Yet, looking at the defensive statistics, the Heat are ranked third in the league at defending both the point guard and shooting guard positions. Ignore the Blazers unless you are playing the early slate only, where you may have to take a chance on a guy like McCollum.
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
C.J. McCollum (Early slate only)
FD — $7,500 — SG
DK — $6,800 — SG
Usage – 25.3
Miami
Portland Trail Blazers Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 102.1 (19 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.1 (21 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: 2.5 (6 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 198.1 (17 of 30)
While one side of this matchup is difficult to trust for offensive purposes, the other side has not been great defensively. The Blazers are currently in the bottom half of the league in points/fantasy points allowed as well as defensive efficiency. The Heat have an implied team total of 99.8, which is 3.8 points higher than their season average.
Chris Bosh is in play today as a top offensive option for the Heat today. His play has been a bit erratic lately and he has hit value in only five of his last ten games. This has dropped his price to a point where he needs about 30-35 fantasy points in order to pay off his salary, which he should do against the soft inside defense of this Blazers squad.
Elite Plays
Chris Bosh
FD — $7,100 — PF
DK — $6,900 — PF
Usage – 21.2
Secondary Plays
Dwyane Wade (Early slate only)
FD — $7,200 — SG
DK — $6,800 — SG
Usage – 30.5
Philadelphia at Cleveland – 03:30 PM
- Vegas Line – No Lines Set for This Game Yet
- Philadelphia Proj. Starters – Marshall-Canaan-Covington-Noel-Okafor
- Cleveland Proj. Starters – Dellavedova-Smith-James-Love-Mozgov
| Philadelphia | Cleveland | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total |  | Vegas Total | |||||||||
| Vegas Sprd | Vegas Sprd | |||||||||||
| Team Proj. | Team Proj. | |||||||||||
| Team Pace | 99.34 | Team Pace | 95.34 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Kendall Marshall | Isaiah Canaan | Robert Covington | Nerlens Noel | Jahlil Okafor | Proj Starter | Matthew Dellavedova | J.R. Smith | LeBron James | Kevin Love | Timofey Mozgov | |
| Opp. Season | 14 | 19 | 5 | 1 | 2 | Opp. Season | 11 | 8 | 29 | 29 | 26 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 27 | 18 | 18 | 11 | 2 | Opp. Season | 14 | 28 | 25 | 25 | 26 | |
Philadelphia
Cleveland Cavaliers Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 95.8 (3 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 99.3 (8 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: 4.9 (3 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 185.4 (4 of 30)
Cleveland has been an elite defensive squad over the course of the early part of the season. They are a top four defensive squad in points allowed, fantasy points allowed and rebounding differential. The 76ers have the lowest implied team total at 90.3 today.
The 76ers are the biggest underdogs by far on the slate as the Cavs are 16.5 point favorites. With the lowest projected team total on the slate and some other solid matchups to pick from, taking 76ers players is very tough as the starters really may only see three quarters of action as the blowout is in play today.
Elite Plays
None
Secondary Plays
Jahil Okafor (Early slate only)
FD — $6,600 — C
DK — $6,600 — C
Usage – 25.5
Cleveland
Philadelphia 76ers Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 104.2 (24 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.8 (24 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -4.5 (28 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 209.3 (27 of 30)
The 76ers are a terrible defensive team (and offensive team) as they are ranked 24th or worse in all the above categories. The Cavs have the highest projected team total of the day at 106.8, which is a full five points higher than their season average (101.6). With Kyrie Irving back for this game, it takes a lot of the value out of the Cavs squad as playing Dellavedova becomes a lot more difficult even with Mo Williams not playing since Irving should have the ball in his hands when in the game.
Elite Plays
Lebron James (Early Slate elite)
Playing Lebron is a bit scary during this matchup and it may be even scarier considering the return of Kyrie Irving to this game. Yet, the matchup is ideal and he could put up a solid stat line in only three quarters and is at that small forward position that is always hard to fill and extremely difficult if you are playing that early four game slate.
FD — $10,500 — SF
DK — $10,100 — SF
Usage – 32.9
Secondary Plays
Kevin Love (Early slate only)
FD — $8,100 — PF
DK — $8,000 — PF
Usage – 23.2
Milwaukee at Phoenix – 05:00 PM
- Vegas Line – No Lines Set for This Game Yet
- Milwaukee Proj. Starters – Carter-Williams-Middleton-Antetokounmpo-Parker-Monroe
- Phoenix Proj. Starters – Bledsoe-Knight-Tucker-Leuer-Chandler
| Milwaukee | Phoenix | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total |  | Vegas Total | |||||||||
| Vegas Sprd | Vegas Sprd | |||||||||||
| Team Proj. | Team Proj. | |||||||||||
| Team Pace | 95.47 | Team Pace | 102.00 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Michael Carter-Williams | Khris Middleton | Giannis Antetokounmpo | Jabari Parker | Greg Monroe | Proj Starter | Eric Bledsoe | Brandon Knight | P.J. Tucker | Jon Leuer | Tyson Chandler | |
| Opp. Season | 26 | 28 | 24 | 12 | 4 | Opp. Season | 13 | 12 | 26 | 25 | 12 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 8 | 30 | 4 | 27 | 4 | Opp. Season | 29 | 22 | 1 | 28 | 19 | |
Milwaukee
Phoenix Suns Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.9 (25 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.9 (19 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: 0.2 (15 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 201.6 (22 of 30)
The Suns are never going to be praised to much for their defensive statistics as they are just an average defensive squad and are actually ranked in the bottom third of the league in points and fantasy points allowed per game. This game should be played at a fast pace and does have the highest overall total of the early slate at 204.5. The Bucks have an implied team total of just 99.3 as they are six point underdogs today.
Elite Plays
Michael Carter Williams
The injuries have really helped Williams get back into the rotation and the good graces of Kidd. He played 39 minutes in their game on Friday, which resulted in 38 fantasy points. The guard defense is a great place to attack the Suns this year as they are 26th and 28th in the league in defending the point and shooting guard positions respectively.
FD — $6,200 — PG
DK — $6,000 — PG
Usage – 23.1
Monroe came back a bit earlier than expected on Friday and played 27 minutes and put up a 39.1 fantasy point line. If healthy, he should get a full allotment of minutes against Chandler inside, who has not improved this Suns defense as much as they hoped as they are still ranked 20th in the league at defending centers.
FD — $7,900 — C
DK — $7,200 — C
Usage – 22.4
Secondary Plays
While everyone has jumped on the Mayo bandwagon, and I don’t think he is a terrible play again today along with the Alphabet, but Middleton has flown a bit under the radar recently. He is playing monster minutes with at least 34 in his last 7 games. During this span he has put up at least 24 fantasy points in six of those seven games and plays a position that is difficult to fill.
FD — $5,900 — SF
DK — $5,500 — SG
Phoenix
Milwaukee Bucks Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.7 (18 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.4 (26 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -4.5 (28 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 201.0 (21 of 30)
The Bucks are a slightly below average defensive squad this year who have allowed 101.7 real points per game, placing them in the bottom half of the league in that category. The Suns have one of the higher implied team totals of the day at 105.3.
Elite Plays
Bledsoe has been excellent recently as he has put up 40+ fantasy points in five of his last six games. His price has started to reflect this recently play as he is now approaching the 9k range at FD. He is a bit safer than Knight in this matchup, but both should feast against the backcourt of the Bucks.
FD — $8,900 — SG
DK — $8,400 — SG
Usage – 27.8
Secondary Plays
Knight is more volatile than Bledsoe, which is apparent when looking at his game logs. He has struggled over the last three games, but will play 35 minutes in a tight game today and has big time upside for his salary that has dropped due to his recent play.
FD — $7,200 — PG
DK — $7,300 — PG
Usage – 25.3
Leuer is still a great play over at Fanduel, where they never raised his price over that great span of games he had while Chandler was out. He is still going to get 25+ minutes against the Bucks today and is a great source of value on the early slate that does not have a ton.
FD — $4,700 — PF
DK — $5,800 — PF
Usage – 17.2
Atlanta at Orlando – 06:00 PM
- Vegas Line – No Lines Set for This Game Yet
- Atlanta Proj. Starters – Teague-Korver-Sefolosha-Millsap-Horford
- Orlando Proj. Starters – Payton-Fournier-Harris-Frye-Vucevic
| Atlanta | Orlando | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total |  | Vegas Total | |||||||||
| Vegas Sprd | Vegas Sprd | |||||||||||
| Team Proj. | Team Proj. | |||||||||||
| Team Pace | 98.53 | Team Pace | 98.15 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Jeff Teague | Kyle Korver | Thabo Sefolosha | Paul Millsap | Al Horford | Proj Starter | Elfrid Payton | Evan Fournier | Tobias Harris | Channing Frye | Nikola Vucevic | |
| Opp. Season | 22 | 9 | 15 | 9 | 11 | Opp. Season | 19 | 10 | 20 | 15 | 17 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 18 | 26 | 2 | 3 | 1 | Opp. Season | 19 | 1 | 21 | 13 | 9 | |
Atlanta
Orlando Magic Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 98.5 (8 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 98.9 (7 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: 0.8 (14 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 198.0 (16 of 30)
The Magic are an above average defensive team so far this year and are allowing only 98.5 points per game for eighth best in league. Vegas thinks this game will be close as the spread is at 1 and an overall total of 200.
Elite Plays
Millsap is a guy who can put up 30+ fantasy points, very easily as he does so much on the court. If you do not want to pay up for Davis at power forward, Millsap is the clear second option at a thin position for the night slate.
FD — $8,300 — PF
DK — $8,000 — PF
Usage – 22.6
Secondary Plays
Simply put, minutes = production in the NBA and Bazemore is getting a ton of minutes recently. Other than the blowout against the Sixers, Bazemore played 37 and 40 minutes recently. While he is not going to win you any tournaments with his upside, he should reach value in this matchup against the Magic.
FD — $5,500 — SG
DK — $5,700 — SF
Usage – 18.5
Orlando
Atlanta Hawks Defense
Points Allowed Per Game: 100.0 (13 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 101.1 (14 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -5.0 (30 of 30)
Fantasy Points Allowed Per Game: 199.7 (19 of 30)
The Hawks have been an average defensive team this year and are actually the worst rebounding team in the league at the moment. Both teams are expected to score about 100 points, which is right around their season averages.
Elite Plays
He is finally getting a bit more consistent minutes and with the 35 he played on Friday, he was able to put up 44.7 fantasy points. The matchup is tough against Horford, but he is the best mid-priced center if you do not want to pay up for Cousins or punt with Biyombo on the night slate.
FD — $7,500 — SF
DK — $7,100 — C
Usage – 23.6
Payton can really fill a stat sheet and just like Vucevic, is starting to get consistent minutes for the Magic. He is a great mid-priced guy that can score, rebound, dish the ball as well as scoop up a few steals over the course of 35 minutes.
FD — $6,800 — PG
DK — $6,300 — PG
Usage – 22.1
Secondary Plays
He is worth a mention after that monster performance he put up on Friday. If he can get 30-35 minutes each game, 35+ fantasy points are not out of the question as we have seen him do that in recent years. He is more risky than the two other Magic above, but the upside is there.
FD — $6,400 — SF
DK — $6,200 — SF
Usage – 19.7