NBA Grind Down: Sunday, December 27th
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.
Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.
We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.
Every game is also broken down by our NBA experts, providing an overview of the game and a selection of players to consider from each contest.
Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.
L.A. Lakers at Memphis – 06:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Memphis -11, 196 Over/Under
- L.A. Lakers Proj. Starters – Clarkson-Williams-Bryant-Nance-Hibbert
- Memphis Proj. Starters – Conley-Lee-Barnes-Green-Gasol
| L.A. Lakers | Memphis | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 196 |  | Vegas Total | 196 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 11.0 | Vegas Sprd | -11.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 92.5 | Team Proj. | 103.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 98.75 | Team Pace | 96.56 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Jordan Clarkson | Lou Williams | Kobe Bryant | Larry Nance | Roy Hibbert | Proj Starter | Mike Conley | Courtney Lee | Matt Barnes | Jeff Green | Marc Gasol | |
| Opp. Season | 21 | 6 | 24 | 16 | 6 | Opp. Season | 30 | 29 | 21 | 24 | 28 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 11 | 1 | 25 | 2 | 3 | Opp. Season | 30 | 25 | 23 | 19 | 13 | |
L.A. Lakers
If there is one team we can avoid on this four-game slate, it certainly would be the Lakers. They have the lowest projected team total on the board and have been getting blown out with even more frequency of late. The prospects don’t get much better as double-digit underdogs against Memphis on the road.
Elite Plays
NONE
Secondary Plays
Kobe Bryant
DK – $6,300 – SG
FD – $7,200 – SG
Kobe Bryant has been turning back the clock in the month of December. However, his production has slowed over the past couple of games, and he now draws a tough matchup against the tough wing defense of the Grizzlies. He remains the best fantasy option on the Lakers, but he’s more of a fringe tournament option as opposed to a solid play in this matchup.
Memphis
Memphis, on the other hand, gets a tasty matchup tonight against the so-called defense of the Lakers. Their players all get a small boost in what should be a more up-tempo contest than the Grizzlies are used to playing at.
Elite Plays
Marc Gasol
DK – $7,300 – C
FD – $8,000 – C
The center position is pretty straight-forward tonight. It’s basically Marc Gasol and then everyone else. Gasol’s full skill set should be on display in this game against the Lakers, and the only question is whether or not the game will stay close. Memphis is a double-digit favorite in this game, and the Lakers have been getting blown out with regularity of late. Regardless of that potential event, there’s nothing that can knock Gasol off the perch as the top center on this four-game slate. He will be highly owned and is an elite option.
Mike Conley
DK – $6,200 – PG
FD – $6,400 – PG
He isn’t a sexy name to pick in DFS, but Mike Conley has been putting up some encouraging lines in recent games. He has put up twelve or more shot attempts in each of his last seven games, including a whopping 20 attempts in just 31 minutes in lastnight’s contest against the Hornets. The Grizzlies now draw a date with the Lakers’ league-worst defense against opposing point guards. Conley does not have an outrageous price tag and is a fine mid-range pick across the industry on Sunday.
Secondary Plays
Matt Barnes
DK – $5,800 – SF
FD – $5,300 – SF
This is the spot where I am torn the most tonight. There should be plenty of production to go around for Memphis against the woeful defense of the Lakers, but who knows where that production will come from outside of the aforementioned Conley and Gasol. Tony Allen is back in action, making the minutes unpredictable for the wing foursome of Allen, Green, Barnes, and Courtney Lee. Barnes would probably be my first choice, but this is a tough spot to peg.
New York at Boston – 07:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Boston -7.5, 201.5 Over/Under
- New York Proj. Starters – Calderon-Afflalo-Anthony-Porzingis-Lopez
- Boston Proj. Starters – Thomas-Bradley-Crowder-Johnson-Sullinger
| New York | Boston | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 201 |  | Vegas Total | 201 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 7.5 | Vegas Sprd | -7.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 97.0 | Team Proj. | 104.5 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 96.71 | Team Pace | 101.07 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Jose Calderon | Arron Afflalo | Carmelo Anthony | Kristaps Porzingis | Robin Lopez | Proj Starter | Isaiah Thomas | Avery Bradley | Jae Crowder | Amir Johnson | Jared Sullinger | |
| Opp. Season | 1 | 12 | 19 | 21 | 22 | Opp. Season | 8 | 22 | 6 | 5 | 20 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 4 | 6 | 11 | 6 | 30 | Opp. Season | 19 | 9 | 28 | 13 | 29 | |
New York
The Knicks/Celtics tilt tonight surprisingly checks in with a total north of 200 points. This is an interesting contrast in styles between the fast-paced Celtics (fourth in the NBA in pace) and the plodding Knicks. New York gets the tempo boost, and their top players should get quite a few shots up in this game.
Elite Plays
Carmelo Anthony
DK – $8,200 – SF
FD – $8,500 – SF
Sit down before you read this. OK, are you sitting? Carmelo Anthony is shooting 59.1% from the floor over his last three games. His price remains very fair across the industry, and he draws a fine matchup against Boston this evening. The Celtics have also struggled against small forwards this year despite the presence of a decent defender in Jae Crowder. Anthony is the best target on the Knicks tonight, especially as he seems to be fully recovered from his ankle injury.
Secondary Plays
Kristaps Porzingis
DK – $7,400 – PF
FD – $6,300 – PF
We have seen every side of the young Porzingis in his rookie season, from the very good to the very bad. He becomes an elite option when Carmelo Anthony is out, but he is more of a boom-or-bust tournament option when Anthony takes the floor. With everyone healthy, that’s where Porzingis falls tonight in a matchup against the Celtics. As usual, his price is most attractive on FanDuel.
Boston
Boston is still a decent team to target here despite the matchup against a slow-paced team. The Knicks don’t play great defense, and the Celtics are solid favorites at home tonight.
Elite Plays
Isaiah Thomas
DK – $7,700 – PG
FD – $8,300 – PG
Marcus Smart remains out of commission for the Celtics, which means Isaiah Thomas will continue to run the show in Boston. He has not looked for his own shot as much of late, but the scoring should pick up today. He has a great matchup against Jose Calderon, who is literally no match on the defensive end for the talent of Thomas. Expect a solid game from the Boston point guard.
Secondary Plays
Jae Crowder
DK – $6,000 – SF
FD – $5,800 – SF
After challenging Brad Stevens for a more consistent set of rotations, Jae Crowder has gotten exactly what he wished for. He is averaging 34.3 minutes per game in December compared to 29.7 in November. That five-minute increase is certainly a boost to his fantasy value. Crowder is a safe cash game option against the Knicks tonight.
Denver at Oklahoma City – 07:00 PM
- Vegas Line – Oklahoma City -16, 206.5 Over/Under
- Denver Proj. Starters – Nelson-Harris-Barton-Faried-Lauvergne
- Oklahoma City Proj. Starters – Westbrook-Roberson-Durant-Ibaka-Adams
| Denver | Oklahoma City | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 206 |  | Vegas Total | 206 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 16.0 | Vegas Sprd | -16.0 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 95.3 | Team Proj. | 111.3 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 97.69 | Team Pace | 98.86 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | Jameer Nelson | Gary Harris | Will Barton | Kenneth Faried | Joffrey Lauvergne | Proj Starter | Russell Westbrook | Andre Roberson | Kevin Durant | Serge Ibaka | Steven Adams | |
| Opp. Season | 22 | 10 | 5 | 6 | 2 | Opp. Season | 29 | 30 | 12 | 19 | 23 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 24 | 12 | 5 | 18 | 2 | Opp. Season | 22 | 23 | 18 | 22 | 4 | |
Denver
The Nuggets are in the midst of a tough stretch now, as they had to play San Antonio on the road on Saturday, and now they travel to Oklahoma City to face the Thunder a day later. Denver has been installed as a hefty sixteen point underdog in this game, and they are not the best squad to target on this slate.
Elite Plays
Will Barton
DK – $7,000 – SG
FD – $6,700 – SG
If Denver wants to hang with the high-scoring Thunder tonight, they will need Will Barton to continue his recent run of torrid play. They are still using Barton as a sixth man as opposed to a starter, but he is playing 33-36 minutes per night when the games are competitive. He will also shoot as many times as he feels necssary — sometimes in excess of 20 times per game. If there’s one guy to feel comfortable with on the Nuggets, Barton is your man. He gets an extra boost if Danilo Gallinari remains out for tonight’s game.
Secondary Plays
Jameer Nelson
DK – $5,600 – PG
FD – $4,600 – PG
Nelson returned from his illness yesterday and posted a poor line in just 21 minutes of action. He should be closer to 100% tonight, and this is at least a better matchup than lastnight’s game against the Spurs. He won’t be highly owned tonight, but he could be an interesting tournament pivot with Emmanuel Mudiay still out of action. He is a much more attractive play on FanDuel where his price is $1,000 cheaper than it is on DraftKings.
Oklahoma City
Oklahoma City has the highest projected team total tonight, making them a fine team to target. The fact that they are sixteen-point favorites is a mild concern, but it’s hard to avoid a team due to blowout risk when there are only four games on the slate.
Elite Plays
Russell Westbrook
DK – $10,400 – PG
FD – $10,400 – PG
Westbrook struggled from the field on Christmas Day against the Bulls, and he also uncharacteristically struggled from the foul line too. He still managed a solid all-around line of 26 points, seven rebounds, eight assists, and six steals. His upside is as high as anyone else on the slate, and he draws a favorable matchup against Jameer Nelson and the Nuggets, who rank third from the bottom in the league in defending opposing point guards.
Kevin Durant
DK – $10,000 – SF
FD – $10,000 – SF
I prefer Westbrook over Durant tonight, but obviously this becomes more of an exercise in splitting hairs than anything else. Durant is obviously an elite option anytime he takes the court. The only worry is the sixteen point spread in this game.
Secondary Plays
Serge Ibaka
DK – $6,600 – PF
FD – $6,300 – PF
We generally like targeting big men against the Denver front line, but the problem is that the Thunder don’t exactly have a dominant scoring big man. This could be one of the games where Serge Ibaka thrives, but his production is unpredictable. He sometimes gets lost in the shuffle given the high usage rates of both Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant. Oklahoma City has the highest projected team total of the night, making Ibaka a fine secondary option after the two studs.
Portland at Sacramento – 09:00 PM
- Vegas Line – No Lines Set for This Game Yet
- Portland Proj. Starters – McCollum-McCollum-Aminu-Vonleh-Plumlee
- Sacramento Proj. Starters – Rondo-McLemore-Gay-Casspi-Cousins
| Portland | Sacramento | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 208 |  | Vegas Total | 208 | |||||||
| Vegas Sprd | 7.5 | Vegas Sprd | -7.5 | |||||||||
| Team Proj. | 100.2 | Team Proj. | 107.8 | |||||||||
| Team Pace | 97.34 | Team Pace | 101.73 | |||||||||
| Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters | |||||||||||
| DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | DvP Rks | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Proj Starter | C.J. McCollum | C.J. McCollum | Al-Farouq Aminu | Noah Vonleh | Mason Plumlee | Proj Starter | Rajon Rondo | Ben McLemore | Rudy Gay | Omri Casspi | DeMarcus Cousins | |
| Opp. Season | 24 | 26 | 26 | 26 | 25 | Opp. Season | 15 | 14 | 8 | 20 | 26 | |
| Opp. Last 7 | 17 | 24 | 12 | 11 | 27 | Opp. Season | 27 | 11 | 9 | 28 | 8 | |
Portland
How about those Blazers? They literally took it to Cleveland on Saturday, winning by a whopping 29 points against LeBron James and company. This should be a fun matchup between Portland and the up-tempo Kings. The Blazers are also dealing with some injuries to Damian Lillard and Ed Davis. Combine the tempo boost and the injury values that have arisen, and the Blazers are one of my favorite teams to target on this slate.
Elite Plays
C.J. McCollum
DK – $7,200 – SG
FD – $7,500 – SG
With Damian Lillard out of commission, the Blazers are going to be forced to play McCollum heavy minutes. He was even in lastnight’s game with the Blazers ahead by 31 points with seven minutes to go! Lillard is officially listed as questionable for this game against the Kings, but he said yesterday that he “realistically” expects to return on Wednesday. That sounds more like a “doubtful” tag to me. In any case, McCollum will see plenty of usage in this game, whether he is starting at the point or the two spot. This should be a high-scoring game, and the Kings have been dreadful against opposing guards this year.
Mason Plumlee
DK – $5,300 – C
FD – $5,300 – C
Plumlee has carved out a solid role as a starter in Portland, and he has seen a marked increase in usage over the last three games in the absence of Damian Lillard. In addition, Ed Davis sprained his ankle lastnight and will be a game-time decision for this game against the Kings. Should Davis sit out, Plumlee may get a few extra minutes of playing time. Plumlee has topped 28 fantasy points in each of his last three games and is a fine value play on tonight’s slate.
Secondary Plays
Allen Crabbe
DK – $4,600 – SG
FD – $4,200 – SG
The viability of Allen Crabbe depends more on the availability of Damian Lillard. Assuming Lillard remains out, Crabbe will draw another start at shooting guard. He was fantastic in a big win over Cleveland on Saturday, piling up 26 points on 8-of-15 shooting while adding four three-pointers and six free throws. Crabbe is somewhat scoring-dependent, making him more of a secondary option. However, he is one of the best values on the board assuming Lillard sits. In addition, Sacramento is the worst team in the NBA at defending opposing shooting guards.
Meyers Leonard
DK – $3,700 – C
FD – $3,800 – C
This one hinges directly on the status of Ed Davis. If Davis sits out tonight, Leonard effectively becomes the only big man on the Portland bench. He has been playing around 25 minutes per game of late and is a fine value at just $3,700 on DraftKings and $3,800 on FanDuel. He could even be used in a pinch even if Ed Davis happens to play.
Sacramento
The Kings have a high projected team total of about 108 points tonight, and don’t expect lightning to strike twice for Portland’s defense after they held Cleveland to just 76 yesterday. Give their players a long look on a short slate of games.
Elite Plays
DeMarcus Cousins
DK – $9,900 – PF
FD – $9,900 – C
After Russell Westbrook, Cousins checks in as my top overall play of the night. As long as he can keep his emotions in check and stay out of foul trouble, he should thrive against an under-sized Portland front line. It remains to be seen if his shot will come around this year, but the good news is that he is still putting up 45-50 fantasy points on a nightly basis despite shooting poorly from the field. If he can start hitting 50%+ from the floor, watch out. Those 60 point games will come around at some point.
Omri Casspi
DK – $5,900 – SF
FD – $5,100 – SF
Casspi rebounded from a pair of poor outings in Sacramento’s last contest against the Pacers. He logged a solid double-double with 15 points and 11 rebounds, and he will continue to play heavy minutes as long as Willie Cauley-Stein is out for the Kings. The small forward position doesn’t offer much value, especially since the appeal of Jeff Green and Matt Barnes is a little lower with Tony Allen back in the fold for Memphis. Casspi is my preferred play of the bunch of low-to-mid range small forwards tonight.
Secondary Plays
Rajon Rondo
DK – $8,400 – PG
FD – $8,300 – PG
After his ridiculous run last month, Rajon Rondo production has predictably fallen back to earth. His price tag remains fairly high on most DFS sites, relegating him to more of a secondary option. I much prefer DeMarcus Cousins if you are paying up for one Sacramento player in this matchup with Portland.