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NBA Grind Down: Sunday, February 5th

by Chirag Hira (INSPYR) Last Updated 2017-02-06 01:01:13

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.

Toronto Raptors at Brooklyn Nets – 12:00 PM ET

Toronto Raptors Brooklyn Nets
Article Image Vegas Total 220.0 Article Image Vegas Total 220.0
Vegas Spread -9.5 Vegas Spread 9.5
Team Total 114.8 Team Total 105.3
Pace +/- 5.3 Pace +/- -0.8
Proj. Starter Kyle Lowry Norman Powell DeMarre Carroll Patrick Patterson Jonas Valanciunas Proj. Starter Isaiah Whitehead Bojan Bogdanovic Caris LeVert Rondae Hollis-Jefferson Brook Lopez
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 30 29 30 29 26 Adj. DvP 11 7 11 10 11
DRPM -0.38 -3.39 -0.32 0.15 -0.33 DRPM 1.04 -0.15 0.69 1.77 -0.29

Toronto Raptors

Happy Super Bowl Sunday! We have a tiny little three-game slate, so everyone can enjoy their last Sunday of football. It starts off in Brooklyn with the wounded Raptors visiting after catching back-to-back L’s on the road. DeMar DeRozan has missed six of his last seven games and was able to participate in a partial portion of practice yesterday. While he was not able to go through an entire practice, the team has not upgraded his status. Considering they have the first game on the slate, I’m not expecting them to go through shootaround, so we’ll find out news before lineups lock. Consider DeRozan out and Norman Powell as the starter. Powell has averaged over 35 minutes in the six games that DeRozan has missed and should be considered an elite option against the Nets. He’s only $4.8k on FanDuel, so there is a ton of potential upside here against the Nets.

Editor’s Note: DeMar DeRozan and Patrick Patterson have been ruled OUT on Sunday; Kyle Lowry WILL PLAY.

Kyle Lowry is considered questionable due to an illness and considering the game is so early, I’d consider him out. We don’t have any official at the time of writing this, but I’d build my rosters around Cory Joseph. CoJo is the min salary on FanDuel and only $200 above it on DraftKings. I’d build one focused around Joseph and another around other players, just in case Lowry plays. Even if he does play, Joseph still has some upside at this price against the Nets. According to CourtIQ, Norman Powell (+9.5%) and Cory Joseph (+7.8%) see the biggest usage rate bumps with Lowry, DeRozan, and Patrick Patterson out. PatPat is dealing with a knee injury again and Lucas Nogueira will likely start in his place. Bebe is $3.6k on DraftKings and $4k on FanDuel and is probably one of the best options at center if Patterson is ruled out.

DeMarre Carroll has been playing SO bad that I can’t consider him at all due to his finger injury. Terrence Ross is the higher-upside play, and it makes sense to stack Raptors against the Nets if Lowry, DeRozan, and Patterson are out. Fred VanVleet will jump back into the rotation with Lowry iffy, but he’s too risky on a short slate even though he is coming off a solid performance against the Magic (23.1 FDFP in 23 min). Jared Sullinger might play 15 minutes against the Nets, but we can do a lot better than someone that is not a lock to even play 20 minutes. Jonas Valanciunas has scored over 34 fantasy points in two of his last three games, and if you take out the dud against Boston, JoVal was averaging 30.4 in his last 13 games.

Update: Kyle Lowry is going to play and DeMar DeRozan and Patrick Patterson have been ruled out. Making Cory Joseph a GPP play and Lowry a strong option. Still, since it is against the Nets, Joseph should be able to exceed value and Lowry has a chance of not exceeding it since the game could turn into a blowout or he could be suffereing from his illness. I’d rather go with Lillard if I’m paying this much for a PG.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Kyle Lowry $9,000 $9,200 1.07 37.5 2.9 40.1 7.3 27.2% 3.6% 30 -0.38
Norman Powell $4,800 $5,700 0.72 16.5 12.0 11.9 7.1 19.0% -0.7% 29 -3.39
DeMarre Carroll $3,700 $3,900 0.68 26.3 4.5 17.9 -2.1 15.9% -0.7% 30 -0.32
Patrick Patterson $3,600 $3,300 0.64 28.0 0.3 18.0 0.8 12.3% 1.0% 29 0.15
Jonas Valanciunas $6,100 $6,000 0.97 27.1 -3.2 26.2 -3.3 18.5% 0.1% 26 -0.33
Terrence Ross $3,600 $4,000 0.75 22.5 1.8 16.9 0.5 18.5% 2.0% 30 N/A

Elite Plays – Norman Powell, Lucas Nogueira, Kyle Lowry

Secondary Plays – Jonas Valanciunas, Terrence Ross, Cory Joseph

Brooklyn Nets

Damn, I feel bad for the Nets. They only have one win this calendar year and have lost their last eight games. Still, this game SHOULD be competitive IF DeRozan, Lowry, and Patterson are out. Brook Lopez is a lock for 30 minutes and just roasted the Raptors for 41.7 FanDuel points in January. He also scored 34.1 FanDuel points against them in another contest and should be considered an elite option today. Caris LeVert made his first career start with Bojan Bogdanovic resting, but today LeVert has been ruled out, putting Bogdanovic squarely in play. Rondae Hollis-Jefferson has been starting at power forward and will likely continue in this game. He didn’t play well against the Pacers but did have a solid showing against the Nets. Considering he lacks a true offensive game, he’ll be a GPP option only.

This team plays way too many guys, capping everyone’s potential upside. Isaiah Whitehead has started the last two games, but he plays better off the bench. Spencer Dinwiddie produced off the bench, but I’d rather play Cory Joseph if I had to use a bench point guard. Joe Harris played 24 minutes against the Pacers, but he’s a scoring-dependent player. Brook Lopez is the only really appealing option unless they decide to rest others.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Isaiah Whitehead $3,700 $3,500 0.69 22.5 2.0 15.4 7.2 19.3% 2.5% 11 1.04
Bojan Bogdanovic $4,300 $4,100 0.76 26.6 1.8 20.2 -2.0 21.4% 1.4% 7 -0.15
Caris LeVert $4,400 $4,300 0.74 19.5 7.4 14.5 3.9 16.8% 1.1% 11 0.69
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson $4,200 $4,500 0.85 21.4 -1.3 18.2 -0.9 18.7% -1.3% 10 1.77
Brook Lopez $7,200 $6,700 1.12 29.3 1.4 32.7 -3.7 28.3% -4.8% 11 -0.29
Sean Kilpatrick $4,000 $4,200 0.82 26.7 -6.3 22.0 -9.2 24.1% -2.5% 7 N/A

Elite Plays – Brook Lopez

Secondary Plays – Rondae Hollis-Jefferson (GPP), Bojan Bogdanovic (GPP)

Los Angeles Clippers at Boston Celtics – 2:00 PM ET

Los Angeles Clippers Boston Celtics
Article Image Vegas Total 222.0 Article Image Vegas Total 222.0
Vegas Spread 5.0 Vegas Spread -5.0
Team Total 108.5 Team Total 113.5
Pace +/- -0.1 Pace +/- -0.2
Proj. Starter Austin Rivers J.J. Redick Raymond Felton Blake Griffin DeAndre Jordan Proj. Starter Isaiah Thomas Jaylen Brown Jae Crowder Amir Johnson Al Horford
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 22 23 7 16 27 Adj. DvP 5 2 24 15 21
DRPM -4.64 0.23 0.89 2.15 0.90 DRPM -2.23 -1.52 -0.18 1.25 2.56

Los Angeles Clippers

The Clippers will be without Chris Paul again tonight and have started Austin Rivers, Raymond Felton, and J.J. Redick on the wings. Austin Rivers has been playing solid ball since Chris Paul went down 7 games again, averaging 27.91 FanDuel points. He’s also played over 35 minutes in five of those seven games. Felton and Rivers split the time at point guard and I’d expect Rivers to defend Isaiah Thomas with Thomas likely staying on him on defense. Thomas has a DPRM of -4.64, and Rivers should be considered an elite option against the Celtics today. Felton has also been solid, but he lacks elite upside with Blake Griffin back in the lineup. Griffin’s salary has spiked all the way to $9.2k on FanDuel after scoring over 48 fantasy points in back-to-back games. Griffin is still $8.6k on DraftKings and has some more upside there due to the double-double bonus. The Celtics rank 26th in rebounding differential so Griffin should easily grab 8-10 rebounds.

DeAndre Jordan benefits the most with the weak interior of the Celtics. DJ has not been a solid contributor since Griffin has been back, so he will simply be a GPP option. Jamal Crawford has played over 32 minutes in three of his last four games and played about 30 minutes in that fourth game. He’s the cheapest guard available, so he has potentially the most upside. Paul Pierce is expected to play his final game in Boston, but PLEASE don’t put Pierce on your rosters.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Austin Rivers $5,900 $6,100 0.68 27.3 6.8 18.7 8.4 20.4% 1.6% 22 -4.64
J.J. Redick $4,900 $5,200 0.72 28.0 3.3 20.3 1.8 21.7% -1.5% 23 0.23
Raymond Felton $4,700 $4,900 0.72 22.0 8.5 15.8 8.9 18.5% 2.3% 7 0.89
Blake Griffin $9,200 $8,600 1.17 33.1 -4.1 38.8 3.3 29.6% 3.9% 16 2.15
DeAndre Jordan $7,600 $7,000 1.06 31.8 -8.0 33.7 -9.7 14.7% -2.2% 27 0.90
Jamal Crawford $4,700 $4,700 0.67 26.5 5.5 17.8 4.5 23.5% -4.7% 23 N/A
Raymond Felton $4,700 $4,900 0.72 22.0 8.5 15.8 8.9 18.5% 2.3% 22 N/A

Elite Plays – Blake Griffin, Austin Rivers, Jamal Crawford

Secondary Plays – DeAndre Jordan (GPP), Raymond Felton, J.J. Redick

Boston Celtics

Avery Bradley has missed 13 of his last 14 games but was seen going through shootaround on this past Friday. The Celtics have not upgraded Bradley yet, and we’ll have to play the day like he is out of the lineup. According to CourtIQ, Isaiah Thomas seen his usage jump to 38%, a 2.3% usage rate increase with Bradley off the court this season. Thomas will be an elite option against the Clippers on this slate and the only real better option than Thomas is Russell Westbrook for cash games. Thomas has averaged 51.07 FanDuel over his last four games but has seen his salary spike considerably. Thomas is $10.9k on FanDuel and $9.9k on DraftKings. He’s the better option on DraftKings while Lillard is likely the better GPP option if you’re spending up at point guard on this slate. Al Horford has been a solid option and his salary is nicer on DraftKings as well and center is lacking plenty of option today. Jae Crowder has been playing really well over his last 12 games and should also be considering a high-floor option against the Clippers. Marcus Smart has been playing more minutes than Jaylen Brown and should eventually start.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Isaiah Thomas $10,900 $9,900 1.22 34.3 4.3 41.7 12.3 35.3% 1.0% 5 -2.23
Jaylen Brown $3,800 $3,800 0.68 14.3 8.6 9.8 6.0 18.0% -2.4% 2 -1.52
Jae Crowder $6,500 $6,200 0.80 32.4 3.6 25.8 5.1 16.4% 3.0% 24 -0.18
Amir Johnson $3,600 $3,300 0.80 20.0 -1.8 16.0 -0.9 14.5% -0.9% 15 1.25
Al Horford $7,400 $6,900 1.03 33.2 0.0 34.2 -6.8 22.5% -2.0% 21 2.56
Marcus Smart $5,700 $5,600 0.76 30.6 2.6 23.3 1.8 20.1% 0.9% 5 N/A

Elite Plays – Isaiah Thomas, Marcus Smart

Secondary Plays – Jae Crowder, Al Horford

Portland Trail Blazers at Oklahoma City Thunder – 3:00 PM ET

Portland Trail Blazers Oklahoma City Thunder
Article Image Vegas Total 217.0 Article Image Vegas Total 217.0
Vegas Spread 4.0 Vegas Spread -4.0
Team Total 106.5 Team Total 110.5
Pace +/- 1.8 Pace +/- 1.3
Proj. Starter Damian Lillard C.J. McCollum Evan Turner Noah Vonleh Mason Plumlee Proj. Starter Russell Westbrook Victor Oladipo Andre Roberson Domantas Sabonis Steven Adams
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 21 9 26 22 6 Adj. DvP 12 11 23 25 28
DRPM -0.12 0.36 1.91 1.24 2.52 DRPM -2.35 -2.00 -1.27 0.53 0.72

Portland Trail Blazers

The Blazers are coming off a loss to the Mavericks. C.J. McCollum has scored over 40 fantasy points in back-to-back games; he’ll be one of the best options at the position but does come at a cost. Damian Lillard played 37 minutes against the Mavericks but has not had that huge game since he went off against Memphis. With Thomas and Westbrook on the slate, they should garner most of the ownership. Lillard is cheaper than Thomas, and Westbrook and could provide more potential profit. Still, he’s not been as consistent and can only be relied upon in GPPs. With only three games on the slate, he should still have a fair amount of ownership. Al-Farouq Aminu started over Noah Vonleh in the second half of the game against Dallas and played 37 minutes. He has scored over 25 fantasy points in four straight games and is an elite option at power forward. Evan Turner is getting a ton more burn over Moe Harkless and should be considered the higher floor option. I’m not sure I can Mason Plumlee against Steven Adams.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Damian Lillard $8,300 $7,500 1.12 35.6 -0.1 39.8 -1.4 32.2% -1.7% 21 -0.12
C.J. McCollum $8,000 $7,200 0.99 34.5 -2.5 34.2 -4.0 27.9% -2.2% 9 0.36
Evan Turner $4,900 $5,000 0.77 26.2 2.7 20.3 1.4 19.7% -0.3% 26 1.91
Noah Vonleh $3,500 $3,000 0.72 12.7 4.9 9.2 0.7 14.3% -1.1% 22 1.24
Mason Plumlee $7,000 $5,900 1.06 28.0 1.0 29.7 -0.1 20.3% 1.1% 6 2.52
Al-Farouq Aminu $5,300 $4,800 0.74 28.4 3.2 21.0 4.3 15.1% 0.1% 22 N/A

Elite Plays – Damian Lillard, C.J. McCollum, Al-Farouq Aminu

Secondary Plays – Evan Turner

Oklahoma City Thunder

Russell Westbrook is always an elite play any time he touches the slate. Considering there are only three games on the slate, Westbrook should be on your team otherwise you’re behind by 60+ points. Victor Oladipo is also considered an elite option but has been slumping over the last two games. This is the perfect game for him to bust out of the slump, and I know I’ll be having some Oladipo exposure at this under $6k price. Steven Adams should be able to dominate his matchup against Mason Plumlee and played 44 minutes against the Grizzlies. Adams will play heavy minutes regardless of the opponent now that Enes Kanter is out the lineup. Joffrey Lauvergne also played 29 minutes against the Grizzlies and is a viable option but considering he’s a center on FanDuel, I’d rather go with Adams. With his multi-position eligibility on DraftKings, you can use both Adams and Lauvergne.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Russell Westbrook $12,400 $12,800 1.65 34.7 -1.5 57.2 -7.2 45.7% -2.5% 12 -2.35
Victor Oladipo $5,700 $5,400 0.78 33.9 -2.4 26.5 0.1 21.1% 2.4% 11 -2.00
Andre Roberson $3,600 $3,300 0.56 30.6 -4.9 17.2 -3.3 10.5% -0.6% 23 -1.27
Domantas Sabonis $3,500 $3,100 0.61 21.7 6.0 13.3 2.8 14.6% 6.7% 25 0.53
Steven Adams $6,100 $5,600 0.84 30.3 -0.2 25.5 -2.8 16.4% -0.6% 28 0.72

Elite Plays – Russell Westbrook, Victor Oladipo, Steven Adams

Secondary Plays – Joffrey Lauvergne

About the Author

INSPYR
Chirag Hira (INSPYR)

Chirag Hira, DFS alias “INSPYR”, has been playing fantasy basketball since 2001. He picked up DFS during the 2015 playoffs and has never looked back. In charge of DFS Alerts for the NBA, Chirag takes it as a daily challenge to break news before anyone else in the industry. He graduated with a degree in sports journalism and his career highlights include interviewing Kobe Bryant and Joe Torre. You can find Chirag on Twitter at C_Hira24.