NBA Grind Down: Sunday, January 28th - Page Two

by Justin Van Zuiden (stlcardinals84) Last Updated 2018-01-28 15:53:34

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Legend & FAQ

Los Angeles Lakers at Toronto Raptors – 6:00 PM ET

Los Angeles Lakers							Toronto Raptors
			Vegas Total		217.5					Vegas Total		217.5
			Vegas Spread		9.5					Vegas Spread		-9.5
			Implied Team Total		104.0					Implied Team Total		113.5
			Pace Projection +/-		1.3					Pace Projection +/-		3.8
Projected Starters	Tyler Ennis	Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	Brandon Ingram	Julius Randle	Brook Lopez		Projected Starters	Kyle Lowry	DeMar DeRozan	OG Anunoby	Serge Ibaka	Jonas Valanciunas
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	6	11	10	13	17		DvP	21	22	26	28	20
DRPM Rat.	4	24	4	13	17		DRPM Rat.	16	7	25	16	21

Los Angeles Lakers

Notable Injuries

Lonzo Ball (Out)

I have already written a diatribe about Luke Walton in this space many times, so, if you are a regular reader of my content, you understand how unpredictable the Lakers are. Know that any Lakers player comes with an inherent level of risk because we never know how many minutes they will play.

With that warning out of the way, let’s figure out if any Lakers are worth risking on our DFS rosters today. Toronto is a solid defensive squad that tends to be slightly weaker on the interior, so let’s start there. Larry Nance appears to be the odd man out at this point, while Brook Lopez doesn’t play more than 20 minutes on most nights even though he starts. The upside belongs with both Julius Randle and Kyle Kuzma, and I don’t mind the fact that Kuzma comes off the bench. He is a solid scorer for this team and had a big game against Boston earlier in the week. The only player that seems to be immune from the rotation shenanigans is Brandon Ingram, so that gives him some natural value on the surface. He is also coming off a strong 25/9/5 game against the Bulls. His price tag remains affordable on every DFS site, so Ingram is the top play from this group. Kuzma and Randle are solid GPP options.

The backcourt is nothing short of a bona fide mess, even with Lonzo Ball out. Jordan Clarkson has been playing well, but we have seen this movie before, and the price is simply too high for my liking right now. Both Tyler Ennis and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope were awful in the last game and were held to low minutes, so I can’t endorse them, either. In a matchup against Toronto’s backcourt, this is a spot that is generally best left avoided. I prefer the frontcourt options.

Los Angeles Lakers Offense

Points Per Game: 106.6 (9 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 104.0 (12 of 14)
Projected Point Differential: -2.6 (13 of 14)

Matchup vs. Toronto Raptors

Points Allowed Per Game: 103.7 (9 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 102.7 (4 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 1.0 (10 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.7 (10 of 30)

Elite Plays – Brandon Ingram, Kyle Kuzma (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Julius Randle (GPP), Kyle Kuzma (Cash), Jordan Clarkson

Toronto Raptors

Notable Injuries

None

On a per possession basis, the Lakers aren’t as bad defensively as a lot of people think. After ranking dead last in the NBA in defensive efficiency a year ago, they rank inside the top half of the league this year. However, their defensive improvement is masked by the fact that the Lakers are currently playing at the fastest pace in the league. That naturally leads to more high scoring games, and it is evident in the fact that the team still ranks in the bottom half of the league in DvP against every position. Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan should absolutely benefit from the pace up nature of this game, and the Raptors own the highest implied team total on the late slate. Fire up both guards with confidence in all formats.

Things are a little more hairy up front, where we never know where the minutes will land. Good luck figuring out the small forward mess. Good luck figuring out how many minutes Jonas Valanciunas will get. Perhaps this will be my rant for the day. Why doesn’t Dwane Casey give Jonas Valanciunas more consistent minutes? Big Val is coming off a 28 point, 14 rebound, four block performance against Rudy Gobert and the Jazz, and he is averaging 12 points and eight boards per game this year. He’s doing that in just TWENTY-ONE MINUTES PER GAME. Why??? If you extrapolate his stats out just to 30 minute averages, you get averages of 18 points and 12 rebounds, which would put him at elite center status. The guessing game for minutes makes him a GPP-only play, but he’s definitely a high upside one against Brook Lopez and company.

Serge Ibaka is the last fantasy relevant player on this team, and he’s a steady — if unspectacular — option. He will play around 30 minutes, but 30 minutes against the Lakers gives him a reasonable projection. Fire him up in cash games, but look elsewhere for GPP upside.

Toronto Raptors Offense

Points Per Game: 110.9 (4 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 113.5 (3 of 14)
Projected Point Differential: 2.6 (7 of 14)

Matchup vs. Los Angeles Lakers

Points Allowed Per Game: 109.7 (27 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.7 (11 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.9 (11 of 30)
Pace of Play: 103.2 (1 of 30)

Elite Plays – Kyle Lowry, DeMar DeRozan, Jonas Valanciunas (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Jonas Valanciunas (Cash), Serge Ibaka (Cash)

Sacramento Kings at San Antonio Spurs – 7:00 PM ET

Sacramento Kings							San Antonio Spurs
			Vegas Total		193.5					Vegas Total		193.5
			Vegas Spread		10.0					Vegas Spread		-10.0
			Implied Team Total		91.8					Implied Team Total		101.8
			Pace Projection +/-		-2.9					Pace Projection +/-		-2.2
Projected Starters	De’Aaron Fox	George Hill	Bogdan Bogdanovic	Zach Randolph	Willie Cauley-Stein		Projected Starters	Dejounte Murray	Danny Green	Kyle Anderson	LaMarcus Aldridge	Pau Gasol
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	3	2	4	1	5		DvP	12	19	22	21	28
DRPM Rat.	1	1	1	18	3		DRPM Rat.	29	25	24	28	24

Sacramento Kings

Notable Injuries

Frank Mason (Out)
Willie Cauley-Stein (Out)

This is undoubtedly the least exciting game of the day. We have two slow-paced teams facing off, and the Kings are on the road going against a tough Spurs defense. On a large slate, we would probably want to ignore this spot entirely. However, we have just four night games today, and the Kings also have some situations where we can maybe take advantage of injuries. Let’s start with the frontcourt. Willie Cauley-Stein has already been ruled out for today, and he has been the most consistent frontcourt option for this team all year. This should give Skal Labissiere a chance to shine, and he is by far my favorite option from this group. Even if Kosta Koufos starts, it’s Labissiere that holds the DFS intrigue here. He has posted some solid games over the last two weeks and is a fine value option, especially in tournaments. Zach Randolph also enters the conversation.

Frank Mason has been out for a while, so we have some data on how the minutes will shake out at the guard spots. De’Aaron Fox and Bogdan Bogdanovic should continue to start and play 30+ minutes, while Buddy Hield will have a big role off the bench. It’s hard to parse out these options in a tough matchup. If you are looking for a point guard in this game, I prefer Murray over Fox, so I will largely ignore Fox tonight. The shooting guard spot is very thin, particularly on FanDuel with the lack of positional flexibility. As such, Hield and Bogdanovic carry more value over there. Both are decent tournament options.

Keep in mind that the Kings have a very low implied team total of just 92 points in this game, so there is risk with everyone. I am not going to list any individual player as an elite option, but the injury situations at least give us some potential targets.

Sacramento Kings Offense

Points Per Game: 97.8 (30 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 91.8 (14 of 14)
Projected Point Differential: -6.1 (14 of 14)

Matchup vs. San Antonio Spurs

Points Allowed Per Game: 97.4 (1 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 100.8 (2 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 1.9 (9 of 30)
Pace of Play: 96.5 (29 of 30)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Skal Labissiere, De’Aaron Fox, Buddy Hield, Bogdan Bogdanovic

San Antonio Spurs

Notable Injuries

Rudy Gay (Out)
Kawhi Leonard (Out)
Manu Ginobili (Questionable)

With three wing players on the shelf, Kyle Anderson has wormed his way into a solid role for this Spurs team. He will never be a high usage player, but he’s a competent all around guy and a great fit for this Spurs team. I expect a focused performance following an ugly loss to the Sixers the other night. Anderson is a solid cash game option, but he’s not a primary piece in GPP formats. LaMarcus Aldridge carries the highest usage on the team with Gay and Leonard off the floor, and he has the best combination of floor and ceiling. I don’t think he is a must play at his current price, but he is certainly a strong option if you want to go there.

The best point per dollar play on this squad just might be Dejounte Murray. He has clearly taken over the starting point guard spot at this point, and even Tony Parker is on board with the move. Over the last three games, Murray is averaging 13 points, eight rebounds, and five assists per game. Those numbers will play for a mid-range option at the position, and the Kings are not an efficient defensive team. Even though this game won’t be played at a fast pace, the Spurs should still be able to put up some points. Pau Gasol should be fresh after playing just 18 minutes in the blowout loss the other night, and he is an interesting GPP play against a weak Kings interior defense.

Remember, don’t go nuts with this game, but targeting a Spur or two isn’t a bad move.

San Antonio Spurs Offense

Points Per Game: 100.6 (28 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 101.8 (13 of 14)
Projected Point Differential: 1.2 (11 of 14)

Matchup vs. Sacramento Kings

Points Allowed Per Game: 106.4 (19 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 109.6 (29 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -3.4 (28 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.2 (25 of 30)

Elite Plays – LaMarcus Aldridge, Dejounte Murray, Pau Gasol (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Kyle Anderson

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