NBA Grind Down: Sunday, January 7th

by Justin Van Zuiden (stlcardinals84) Last Updated 2018-01-07 19:27:47

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected Implied Team Totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.

Legend & FAQ

Utah Jazz at Miami Heat – 3:30 PM ET

Utah Jazz							Miami Heat
			Vegas Total		197.5					Vegas Total		197.5
			Vegas Spread		4.5					Vegas Spread		-4.5
			Implied Team Total		96.5					Implied Team Total		101.0
			Pace Projection +/-		-2.4					Pace Projection +/-		-2.4
Projected Starters	Ricky Rubio	Donovan Mitchell	Joe Ingles	Thabo Sefolosha	Derrick Favors		Projected Starters	Goran Dragic	Tyler Johnson	Josh Richardson	Kelly Olynyk	Hassan Whiteside
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	7	4	10	13	7		DvP	23	1	14	6	21
DRPM Rat.	21	23	7	11	1		DRPM Rat.	5	13	13	1	6

Utah Jazz

Notable Injuries

Rudy Gobert (Out)

Happy Sunday, everyone! We have five games on the NBA slate today, but only four of them are truly relevant for DFS purposes. We start the day with an island afternoon game between the Jazz and Heat, and it’s not one that we have to mess with all that much. FanDuel is offering it as part of an “all day” slate, while DraftKings is included the first evening game with this one as part of an “early only” slate. The GPP offerings are very small for those respective slates, and I would suggest just ignoring this game and playing the main slate today. FantasyDraft does not appear to have this game included in any of their contests.

If you are playing contests that include this game, you won’t want to grab a ton of exposure to it. This game has the lowest total of the day at a mere 197 points, and Utah has the lowest team total on the slate. I will completely ignore the wing rotation for this team, as you never know how many minutes each guy is going to play. Utah has significant depth at the small forward position, especially since Donovan Mitchell dominates minutes at shooting guard. Mitchell is your highest upside option on the Jazz with Rudy Gobert out, but he has been struggling a bit of late. He’s nowhere near a must play against the Heat. Derrick Favors has stepped up a bit in Gobert’s absence, and he is coming off a double-double in the last game. He’s the most logical option here. Ricky Rubio is nothing more than a massive risk/reward play in tournaments at this point.

Utah Jazz Offense

Points Per Game: 101.1 (27 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 96.5 (8 of 8)
Projected Point Differential: -4.6 ( of 8)

Matchup vs. Miami Heat

Points Allowed Per Game: 102.2 (7 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.1 (13 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.9 (21 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.0 (26 of 30)

Elite Plays – None

Secondary Plays – Donovan Mitchell, Derrick Favors, Ricky Rubio (GPP)

Miami Heat

Notable Injuries

Dion Waiters (Out)
Justise Winslow (Doubtful)

The Heat continue to be somewhat short-handed in the absence of Dion Waiters and Justise Winslow, and that does enhance their fantasy appeal to some degree. Goran Dragic has been playing extremely well of late, though he was slightly disappointing against the Knicks on Friday. He does carry a team leading 30%+ usage rate in the absence of those two players, according to our CourtIQ tool. I would feel comfortable using him in any DFS format today. Miami continues to roll with a short rotation, as they used only nine players in their last game, and two of them played 15 minutes or less. Hassan Whiteside hasn’t played more than 24 minutes in any game since his return from injury, so he is not on the DFS radar just yet.

If we want to take advantage of the short rotation, the heavier minutes have gone to guys like Dragic, Josh Richardson, Tyler Johnson, Kelly Olynyk, James Johnson, and Wayne Ellington. Out of that group, Richardson and the two Johnsons carry the most upside outside of Dragic. Also, keep in mind that Friday’s game went into overtime, so we might see the primary players get a little less run today. In what profiles as the slowest paced game of the day, there isn’t a must play from this group. I’ll side with Dragic as my favorite play, with Richardson and James Johnson as my secondary options.

Miami Heat Offense

Points Per Game: 100.7 (28 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 101.0 (5 of 8)
Projected Point Differential: 0.3 ( of 8)

Matchup vs. Utah Jazz

Points Allowed Per Game: 101.7 (5 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.6 (10 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -3.1 (25 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.0 (26 of 30)

Elite Plays – Goran Dragic

Secondary Plays – Josh Richardson, James Johnson, Tyler Johnson

New York Knicks at Dallas Mavericks – 7:00 PM ET

New York Knicks							Dallas Mavericks
			Vegas Total		207.0					Vegas Total		207.0
			Vegas Spread		4.5					Vegas Spread		-4.5
			Implied Team Total		101.3					Implied Team Total		105.8
			Pace Projection +/-		-2.3					Pace Projection +/-		-0.8
Projected Starters	Jarrett Jack	Courtney Lee	Lance Thomas	Kristaps Porzingis	Enes Kanter		Projected Starters	Dennis Smith	Wesley Matthews	Harrison Barnes	Maxi Kleber	Dirk Nowitzki
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	20	12	13	15	22		DvP	26	15	11	4	9
DRPM Rat.	28	26	29	7	15		DRPM Rat.	16	12	17	9	25

New York Knicks

Notable Injuries

Tim Hardaway Jr. (Out)
Michael Beasley (Questionable)

The main evening slate gets started with a matchup between the Knicks and Mavericks, and this game actually checks in with a projected Vegas total that is a little higher than I would have expected. The Knicks are five point road underdogs, but they do have an implied team total just over 100 points. Any discussion of this team has to start with Kristaps Porzingis. I’m really not sure what to do with him right now. He has admitted that he is tired, and he has struggled to carry the offensive load for the Knicks in Hardaway’s absence. His numbers have really been lagging, and that keeps him out of elite play status. I like the way the matchup sets up for him against a Dallas squad that is not strong on the glass, but his recent numbers are nothing short of alarming for a player that costs as much as he does in DFS. Enes Kanter has shown a ton of upside at times, but his minutes have been trending in the wrong direction. He also benefits from this matchup, but I would only consider him in GPP formats at this point.

In the backcourt, there’s not a ton to get excited about. Courtney Lee has a very secure load of minutes with Hardaway on the shelf. He is averaging 35.3 minutes per game over the last eight contests. He also led the team in scoring against the Heat on Friday. Lee is a strong cash game option, but the GPP upside isn’t all that exciting. Jarrett Jack has the upper hand on Frank Ntilikina for minutes at the point guard position these days, but his numbers have not been great lately. Again, there’s no reason to prioritize anyone from this backcourt, as it’s simply not necessary despite the short slate.

New York Knicks Offense

Points Per Game: 103.3 (21 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 101.3 (4 of 8)
Projected Point Differential: -2.1 ( of 8)

Matchup vs. Dallas Mavericks

Points Allowed Per Game: 103.9 (10 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.0 (20 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -4.2 (29 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.1 (25 of 30)

Elite Plays – Courtney Lee (Cash)

Secondary Plays – Kristaps Porzingis, Enes Kanter (GPP), Courtney Lee (GPP), Jarrett Jack

Dallas Mavericks

Notable Injuries

Seth Curry (Out)

The Dallas side of this game offers the implied team total that surprised me the most, as Dallas checks in with a healthy 106 point projection today. This still isn’t the most appealing matchup, as the Knicks rank in the middle of the pack in both pace and defensive efficiency. If we want to look for the most favorable individual matchup, that belongs to Dennis Smith Jr. The Knicks have been awful against opposing point guards this season, It would be nice if he was playing more minutes, as he seems to be capped at around 30, but he has still shown plenty of upside at times. I’m definitely comfortable using him as an affordably priced point guard in tournaments today, while he’s more of a secondary option in cash games because of the risk. Wesley Matthews has a very low floor and will likely see the defense of Courtney Lee in this game. There’s some potential if he knocks down some three pointers, but he’s nothing more than a deep secondary option in this matchup.

Harrison Barnes is really the only appealing target up front these days. Dirk Nowitzki doesn’t play a ton of minutes at this stage of his career, and flash in the pan Maxi Kleber has disappeared after a few good games in late December. Barnes is an extremely safe play on this Dallas squad, as he is a volume shooter on a team that doesn’t have a lot of scoring punch. If Dallas is going to reach that 106 point implied team total today, Barnes should have a fine game. His floor is appealing in cash games, while he carries GPP appeal simply because he never garners the ownership that he deserves. He can be used in all formats.

Dallas Mavericks Offense

Points Per Game: 101.6 (24 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 105.8 (3 of 8)
Projected Point Differential: 4.2 ( of 8)

Matchup vs. New York Knicks

Points Allowed Per Game: 104.0 (11 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.6 (14 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 3.1 (3 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.6 (19 of 30)

Elite Plays – Harrison Barnes, Dennis Smith Jr. (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Dennis Smith Jr. (Cash), Wesley Matthews

Oklahoma City Thunder at Phoenix Suns – 8:00 PM ET

Oklahoma City Thunder							Phoenix Suns
			Vegas Total							Vegas Total
			Vegas Spread							Vegas Spread
			Implied Team Total							Implied Team Total
			Pace Projection +/-		3.5					Pace Projection +/-		-1.7
Projected Starters	Russell Westbrook	Terrance Ferguson	Paul George	Carmelo Anthony	Steven Adams		Projected Starters	Tyler Ulis	Devin Booker	T.J. Warren	Marquese Chriss	Tyson Chandler
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	29	29	16	30	17		DvP	5	8	4	7	16
DRPM Rat.	29	27	27	13	6		DRPM Rat.	3	16	2	24	23

Oklahoma City Thunder

Notable Injuries

Andre Roberson (Out)
Alex Abrines (Out)

This could be the top overall fantasy game of the day, and the Thunder draw the best team matchup of the day. They get a significant pace boost against a Suns team that is also very weak defensively. Russell Westbrook should have his way in this one, and he is very clearly the top overall option on the slate. If you can find enough value to fit him into your lineups comfortably, do it. Period.

The other primary options on this team, of course, are Carmelo Anthony and Paul George. Anthony continues to disappoint on a nightly basis, as the secondary stats outside of his scoring simply aren’t there. He has been surprisingly efficient from the field over the last few games, and that could very well be the case against a weak defensive team tonight. I’m fine with him as a mid-range option, but you certainly don’t have to consider him as a must play. Paul George is the type of player who should thrive in an up tempo game, and he is coming off a 31 point performance against the Clippers in the last game.

While those three players dominate the offensive usage, don’t forget about Steven Adams. He continues to put up quiet double-doubles with regularity, and his performances have been very steady. He is a reasonable option in all formats. As for the fifth wheel, Terrance Ferguson has entered the starting lineup with Abrines and Roberson sidelined, but he won’t carry enough usage to matter much. Don’t chase that mid-week performance against the Lakers, as that will very clearly be an outlier for him.

Oklahoma City Thunder Offense

Points Per Game: 104.3 (18 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: ( of 8)
Projected Point Differential: #VALUE! ( of 8)

Matchup vs. Phoenix Suns

Points Allowed Per Game: 112.7 (30 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 109.2 (29 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.1 (14 of 30)
Pace of Play: 102.9 (3 of 30)

Elite Plays – Russell Westbrook, Paul George, Steven Adams

Secondary Plays – Carmelo Anthony

Phoenix Suns

Notable Injuries

Isaiah Canaan (Questionable)
T.J. Warren (Questionable)

The viability of this team largely depends on the availability of T.J. Warren. He sat out Friday’s game, and his absence would definitely hinder Phoenix’s chances of competing in this game. Even if Warren plays, I’m not all that excited about paying a premium for him against the strong defense of Paul George. However, that would leave the door open for Devin Booker to potentially have a massive game. Though he would be at risk of seeing some of George’s defense himself in that case, it’s hard to ignore his team-leading 32% usage rate. If you are looking for GPP upside, Booker comes with the highest ceiling on this team by a wide margin.

With Booker back and dominating, the point guard position is simply irrelevant here. Booker will handle the ball plenty, and Tyler Ulis couldn’t even really get it going when Booker was out. Pass. There’s also no reason to target the center rotation, as the Thunder rank in the top half of the league defensively against every position. Marquese Chriss would be my pick if I had to select anyone else from this team. He has really started to show off his potential of late, with a few massive games over the last two weeks. As long as he can stay out of foul trouble, the ceiling remains through the roof. It appears as though he will be given a crack at consistent minutes over the second half of the season.

Phoenix Suns Offense

Points Per Game: 105.9 (13 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: ( of 8)
Projected Point Differential: #VALUE! ( of 8)

Matchup vs. Oklahoma City Thunder

Points Allowed Per Game: 100.4 (3 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 102.4 (4 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 3.0 (4 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.7 (22 of 30)

Elite Plays – Devin Booker

Secondary Plays – Marquese Chriss

San Antonio Spurs at Portland Trail Blazers – 9:00 PM ET

San Antonio Spurs							Portland Trail Blazers
			Vegas Total		199.0					Vegas Total		199.0
			Vegas Spread		2.0					Vegas Spread		-2.0
			Implied Team Total		98.5					Implied Team Total		100.5
			Pace Projection +/-		-0.5					Pace Projection +/-		-3.0
Projected Starters	Dejounte Murray	Bryn Forbes	Kyle Anderson	LaMarcus Aldridge	Pau Gasol		Projected Starters	Damian Lillard	C.J. McCollum	Evan Turner	Al-Farouq Aminu	Jusuf Nurkic
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	4	16	24	11	3		DvP	2	3	3	8	8
DRPM Rat.	14	25	15	9	4		DRPM Rat.	1	28	1	20	3

San Antonio Spurs

Notable Injuries

Tony Parker (Out)
Kawhi Leonard (Out)
Rudy Gay (Out)
Danny Green (Doubtful)

Hello, value! The Spurs will likely be without three starters and a top reserve today, and minutes will be available everywhere. The biggest opening comes on the wing, where Leonard, Gay, and Green will likely all be out. Kyle Anderson figures to benefit the most from this, and he has a clear path to 35 minutes in this one. He has shown fantasy upside when he gets the minutes this year, and he checks in as my favorite value play of the day. LaMarcus Aldridge should also dominate usage today, and CourtIQ tells us that he gets a 4.3% boost in usage and scores over six additional fantasy points per 36 minutes with those four players off the floor. Anderson and Aldridge will be on a large majority of all the lineups I make this evening.

The point guard spot is really interesting here. Dejounte Murray was completely overwhelmed by Ben Simmons in the last game that Parker missed, and that led to Patty Mills playing a large chunk of the minutes at the position. Murray was between 50 and 70% owned that day depending on the site and format, and almost all of those owners will be shy to pull the trigger on him today. I’ll list both Murray and Mills as secondary options, as I have no idea how the minutes will shake out today, but they are both viable value selections. Bryn Forbes played 41 minutes in that game against the Sixers, and while he is a low usage player, he’s worth a look with all the absences. If you plan on using him, make sure that Danny Green is ruled out before you lock him in.

This isn’t the best matchup against a Blazers team that is better defensively than most realize, but the value is there simply because so many players are likely out for the Spurs. The only player that I’m really not interested in is Pau Gasol. He’s not cheap enough to entice me, and the minutes are always hit or miss with him. I’ll let someone else deal with that headache.

San Antonio Spurs Offense

Points Per Game: 101.3 (26 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 98.5 (7 of 8)
Projected Point Differential: -2.8 ( of 8)

Matchup vs. Portland Trail Blazers

Points Allowed Per Game: 101.9 (6 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 102.9 (5 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 2.4 (9 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.9 (16 of 30)

Elite Plays – Kyle Anderson, LaMarcus Aldridge

Secondary Plays – Dejounte Murray, Patty Mills, Bryn Forbes (if Green is officially out)

Portland Trail Blazers

Notable Injuries

None

Portland is actually a home favorite over the Spurs today, largely thanks to the fact that the Spurs will be without several key players. As such, this is not the difficult matchup that it would normally be. The Spurs will not be the same defensive team, especially with Kawhi Leonard out. The primary options, as usual, are the two starting guards. Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum dominate the usage on this team, and Lillard should be able to have his way with Dejounte Murray when Murray is in there. McCollum also should have an advantage over Bryn Forbes. I am comfortable using either player in any DFS format today.

The uncertainty comes in a little more with the frontcourt, where minutes are a little harder to predict. Evan Turner has entered the starting lineup at small forward recently, and he would be the most direct beneficiary from Leonard’s absence. It’s hard to completely trust him, but he remains affordable in DFS formats and is worth a look as a value play on a short slate. He is still priced at $4,400 on FanDuel, $4,500 on DraftKings, and $8,800 on FantasyDraft. At those prices, he is still in play. Al-Farouq Aminu has limited upside and isn’t really on my radar today. Jusuf Nurkic always carries some upside, but his minutes are often lower than we would like for a mid-range center play. This slate isn’t loaded with center options, and that makes Nurkic a reasonable play at the position. I feel more comfortable with him in tournaments compared to cash games, especially since he is the most expensive true center on the board today.

Portland Trail Blazers Offense

Points Per Game: 102.5 (22 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 100.5 (6 of 8)
Projected Point Differential: -2.0 ( of 8)

Matchup vs. San Antonio Spurs

Points Allowed Per Game: 98.3 (2 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 101.7 (2 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 2.9 (5 of 30)
Pace of Play: 96.4 (28 of 30)

Elite Plays – Damian Lillard, C.J. McCollum

Secondary Plays – Evan Turner, Jusuf Nurkic (GPP)

Atlanta Hawks at Los Angeles Lakers – 9:30 PM ET

Atlanta Hawks							Los Angeles Lakers
			Vegas Total		217.5					Vegas Total		217.5
			Vegas Spread		2.5					Vegas Spread		-2.5
			Implied Team Total		107.5					Implied Team Total		110.0
			Pace Projection +/-		4.4					Pace Projection +/-		0.0
Projected Starters	Dennis Schroder	Kent Bazemore	Taurean Prince	Ersan Ilyasova	Miles Plumlee		Projected Starters	Lonzo Ball	Kentavious Caldwell-Pope	Brandon Ingram	Julius Randle	Brook Lopez
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
DvP	25	27	27	27	27		DvP	15	24	29	22	26
DRPM Rat.	1	7	24	17	11		DRPM Rat.	30	1	20	20	9

Atlanta Hawks

Notable Injuries

Dewayne Dedmon (Out)

This projects to be a tight, high scoring game between a pair of bad teams. The Hawks and Lakers carry a game total of 217 points, and both teams are projected to score over 105 here. The issue we have is that both coaches are somewhat unpredictable with their rotations, but that applies to the Lakers side moreso than the Hawks side. Yes, I’m already talking about you, Luke Walton. Dennis Schroder is the obvious choice from the Atlanta side, as he carries a team leading 31.1% usage rate and draws a great individual matchup against a weak defender in Lonzo Ball. Schroder is a rock solid play in all formats tonight, even though he has let us down a few times as a chalky play of late.

The wing players are both solid, if unspectacular, options. Kent Bazemore and Taurean Prince have somewhat of a capped ceiling because they rarely exceed about 32 minutes (especially Bazemore), but they are reasonably priced, and 28-32 minutes against the Lakers should be just fine. More upside exists with guys like John Collins and Ersan Ilyasova, but the minutes are even more of a moving target with those two. I like the athleticism of Collins against this opponent, but he simply doesn’t exceed 25 minutes these days. He’s a secondary option with an uncomfortable floor, and the same goes for Ilyasova. There are several players in play from the Hawks, but none of them are slam dunks. Pegging this team correctly will be a big key to success on a short slate.

Atlanta Hawks Offense

Points Per Game: 103.9 (19 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 107.5 (2 of 8)
Projected Point Differential: 3.6 ( of 8)

Matchup vs. Los Angeles Lakers

Points Allowed Per Game: 111.8 (29 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.0 (15 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.7 (10 of 30)
Pace of Play: 103.8 (1 of 30)

Elite Plays – Dennis Schroder

Secondary Plays – Kent Bazemore, Taurean Prince, John Collins, Ersan Ilyasova

Los Angeles Lakers

Notable Injuries

Larry Nance (Questionable)

Here is the conclusion on how minutes are going to shake out for the Lakers:

Nobody knows.

I don’t even think Luke Walton knows what he wants to use for rotations on a nightly basis. Nine Lakers saw at least 18 minutes of court time against the Hornets the other night. Hurrah! Even though the Lakers are projected to score 110 points tonight, this rotation is a complete mess, especially now that both Lonzo Ball and Brook Lopez are back. If Larry Nance happens to be out for this game, you can upgrade Julius Randle and Kyle Kuzma quite a bit. Randle has been the most consistent player for this team of late, and he is coming off a 15 point, 10 rebound double-double the other night. However, we have seen him go from dominant to 15 minutes with a moment’s notice. I’ll list him as an elite GPP play, but there is still some risk in cash games. You simply can’t trust Luke Walton at this point.

Atlanta is below average defensively against every position, so we can also consider the likes of Lonzo Ball and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope tonight. The uncertain rotations give them some risk, too, and they are secondary options. The only safe player on this roster is Brandon Ingram. His minutes have been consistent all year, and he is clearly the offensive leader of this squad. He is the only Lakers player that I would feel comfortable rostering in any format, especially as the Hawks rank 29th in DvP against the small forward position. Lock in Ingram with confidence, but be careful with the rest of the squad.

Thanks, Luke Walton.

Los Angeles Lakers Offense

Points Per Game: 106.7 (11 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 110.0 (1 of 8)
Projected Point Differential: 3.3 ( of 8)

Matchup vs. Atlanta Hawks

Points Allowed Per Game: 107.9 (24 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 108.0 (26 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -3.6 (28 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.4 (13 of 30)

Elite Plays – Brandon Ingram, Julius Randle (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Lonzo Ball (GPP), Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Kyle Kuzma

Fades – Luke Walton’s rotations