NBA Grind Down: Sunday, October 22nd

by Justin Van Zuiden (stlcardinals84) Last Updated 2017-10-22 15:12:05

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected Implied Team Totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.

Legend & FAQ

Atlanta Hawks at Brooklyn Nets – 3:30 PM ET

Atlanta Hawks							Brooklyn Nets
			Vegas Total		220.5					Vegas Total		220.5
			Vegas Spread		2.5					Vegas Spread		-2.5
			Implied Team Total		109.0					Implied Team Total		111.5
			Pace Projection +/-		13.0					Pace Projection +/-		-2.7
Projected Starters	Dennis Schroder	Kent Bazemore	Taurean Prince	Ersan Ilyasova	Dewayne Dedmon		Projected Starters	D’Angelo Russell	Allen Crabbe	DeMarre Carroll	Rondae Hollis-Jefferson	Timofey Mozgov
Opponent DRPM	-2.42	-2.68	1.09	1.36	0.90		Opponent DRPM	-2.53	-1.09	2.66	0.63	4.86

Atlanta Hawks

Notable Injuries

None

What’s up, Grinders? It’s an NFL Sunday today, and the NBA slate is very small with just three games. However, there are some decently sized NBA tournaments out there for the taking, and the competition might be a little softer with everyone focused on football. Use that to your advantage! Let’s take a look at what the slate has to offer.

We get things started with a fun matchup between two bad teams. The good news is that one of those bad teams is the Nets, and we love picking on the Nets! This game has a projected total of 222 points and a two point spread, so we will definitely want some exposure on both sides. Brooklyn ranked among the worst teams in the league in DvP against every single position last year, and that does not project to change this year with their thin roster and fast-paced nature. For the Hawks, it all starts with Dennis Schroder. He is going to run the show and see massive usage this season, and he has taken 47 shot attempts over the first two games. Fire him up with confidence in all formats as one of the top overall plays of the day. The wing players like Taurean Prince and Kent Bazemore generally don’t have a ton of upside, but they are reasonably priced and can be used in the positive matchup. I prefer Bazemore in cash games and Prince in tournaments.

The rotation is a little crowded at power forward and center. Ersan Ilyasova will start at power forward, but he played just 21 uninspiring minutes the other night, and both Mike Muscala and John Collins will push him for minutes off the bench. Collins has looked very good through two games and is a really interesting punt play on today’s slate. Dewayne Dedmon isn’t going to wow you with his stat lines, but his 26-30 minutes are secure at center, and he had a solid preseason. I would be comfortable rolling with him today if you are looking to go cheaper at center. However you slice it, you need some exposure to this team.

Matchup vs. Brooklyn Nets

Points Allowed Per Game: 130.5 (30 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 120.6 (30 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -3.3 (28 of 30)
Pace of Play: 116.6 (1 of 30)

Elite Plays – Dennis Schroder, Kent Bazemore (Cash), Taurean Prince (GPP), Dewayne Dedmon

Secondary Plays – Kent Bazemore (GPP), Taurean Prince (Cash), John Collins

Brooklyn Nets

Notable Injuries

Jeremy Lin (Out for season)

While we all know that we can pick on Brooklyn, there is also going to be plenty of opportunity this year to pick on Atlanta. While the Hawks might not play at the same pace as the Nets, they simply aren’t going to be a good team. The Nets are actually favored in this game and are projected to score 112 points. Just like Dennis Schroder is the clear leader of the Hawks, De’Angelo Russell is the clear leader of the Nets. He is going to facilitate the offense and play heavy minutes on a nightly basis, especially now that Jeremy Lin is out for the season. Schroder has always been known as a poor defender, too, so this is a fantastic spot for Russell. I love both point guards in this game as DFS options today. Allen Crabbe drew the start in place of Lin the other night, but he split minutes with Caris LeVert, and I actually prefer LeVert with the second unit. He has potential this year and is a great all-around athlete. Both players will have their ups and downs, but I prefer LeVert between the two.

The problem that we always have when targeting the Nets in DFS is that we never know how secure the minutes will be. Kenny Atkinson has a knack for giving about ten guys 20+ minutes on a nightly basis, and that can be very frustrating. That is going to make this frontcourt extremely hard to peg, and all of them are generally better as GPP options than cash game options. Even though the Nets scored 126 points on Friday night, nobody up front really had a “can’t miss” fantasy game, though DeMarre Carroll was very solid. Carroll and Rondae Hollis-Jefferson are capable of big games in a nice matchup here, but the minutes in the mid-20’s are a bit of a drag. Again, these guys are better utilized in GPPs. I am not going to mess with Timofey Mozgov, who is not guaranteed more than 20 minutes despite a starting role. Spencer Dinwiddie is in store for a larger role off the bench and is a decent punt play at point guard, as well.

Matchup vs. Atlanta Hawks

Points Allowed Per Game: 110.0 (18 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 108.6 (19 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.4 (13 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.9 (20 of 30)

Elite Plays – De’Angelo Russell, Caris LeVert, Allen Crabbe (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Allen Crabbe (Cash), DeMarre Carroll, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, Spencer Dinwiddie

Minnesota Timberwolves at Oklahoma City Thunder – 7:00 PM ET

Minnesota Timberwolves							Oklahoma City Thunder
			Vegas Total		211.5					Vegas Total		211.5
			Vegas Spread		4.0					Vegas Spread		-4.0
			Implied Team Total		103.8					Implied Team Total		107.8
			Pace Projection +/-		1.1					Pace Projection +/-		-6.9
Projected Starters	Jeff Teague	Jimmy Butler	Andrew Wiggins	Taj Gibson	Karl-Anthony Towns		Projected Starters	Russell Westbrook	Andre Roberson	Paul George	Carmelo Anthony	Steven Adams
Opponent DRPM	-0.59	2.47	0.13	-1.49	1.42		Opponent DRPM	-0.24	1.86	-2.73	2.10	-1.71

Minnesota Timberwolves

Notable Injuries

None

This should be another fun game between two teams that should be very competitive this year. The Timberwolves have had some difficult matchups to start the season, as they opened against the Spurs, had to face the Jazz on Friday night, and now they draw the Thunder. Those could arguably be the three most difficult defensive matchups in the Western Conference. There will be buy-low opportunities with this squad before long. As for tonight, it’s difficult to avoid a team on a three game slate, but Minnesota is one of the least appealing squads on the slate. The good news is that at least we know the minutes will be there for the big name players. Karl-Anthony Towns and Andrew Wiggins were among the league leaders in minutes played last season, while Tom Thibodeau played Jimmy Butler huge minutes back in their time together in Chicago. It’s difficult to vouch for Towns over DeMarcus Cousins or Anthony Davis up front, but Towns is capable of going nuts on any given night, making him an elite GPP play despite the difficult matchup.

The one Minnesota player that I probably will avoid tonight is Andrew Wiggins. He is a scoring dependent player and will likely have to deal with Andre Roberson and/or Paul George for a good chunk of this game. I’m not too excited about that. Jimmy Butler will also eat into Wiggins’ production to some degree. I trust Butler’s all around game more on the wing, so he would be my preferred option between the two. Jeff Teague has a solidified role at the point and a decent matchup with Russell Westbrook, making him a solid if unspectacular play at the point guard position. If you are looking for a low-owned punt play in this game, Jamal Crawford has some scoring punch off the bench and helped lead the team to a win over Utah last night.

Matchup vs. Oklahoma City Thunder

Points Allowed Per Game: 84.0 (1 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 81.7 (2 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 6.0 (1 of 30)
Pace of Play: 104.7 (9 of 30)

Elite Plays – Karl-Anthony Towns (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Karl-Anthony Towns (Cash), Jimmy Butler, Jeff Teague, Jamal Crawford

Oklahoma City Thunder

Notable Injuries

None

Oklahoma City is also coming off a difficult matchup, as they had to play the Jazz last night. Both these teams played the Jazz in their most recent game, which is a little bit freaky if you ask me. This should be a more favorable matchup, although the projected game total of 211 points is the lowest of the three games today. This should be one of the higher-scoring three game slates that we have seen in quite some time. Paul George is likely going to see a lot of Jimmy Butler defensively, but his talent certainly gives him the opportunity to go nuts on any given day. The most likely of the “big three” to go off today will almost assuredly be Russell Westbrook, and his price tag remains affordable (by his standards) on FanDuel and DraftKings. It’s a little tougher to fit him in on FantasyDraft, which makes him more of a secondary option over there. Westbrook only scored six actual points last night. I wouldn’t bank on that again. I’m not sure what to do with Carmelo Anthony. He actually led the team in scoring against the Jazz, and his price tag is the most favorable of the group. That at least earns him consideration tonight.

With all the usage revolving around Westbrook, Anthony, and George, there isn’t a lot left to go around for the rest of this team. I do expect Steven Adams to have a solid season with Enes Kanter no longer around, but I’m not dropping everything to roster him against Karl-Anthony Towns, especially since there are a lot of good center plays for a three game slate. I will definitely have less exposure to this game than the other games today, and I likely won’t go outside the big names for the Thunder.

Matchup vs. Minnesota Timberwolves

Points Allowed Per Game: 102.0 (12 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 111.0 (23 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 2.0 (7 of 30)
Pace of Play: 96.7 (29 of 30)

Elite Plays – Russell Westbrook (FD & DK), Paul George (GPP), Carmelo Anthony (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Russell Westbrook (FDRAFT), Paul George (Cash), Carmelo Anthony (Cash)

New Orleans Pelicans at Los Angeles Lakers – 9:30 PM ET

New Orleans Pelicans							Los Angeles Lakers
			Vegas Total		223.0					Vegas Total		223.0
			Vegas Spread		-4.0					Vegas Spread		4.0
			Implied Team Total		113.5					Implied Team Total		109.5
			Pace Projection +/-		6.3					Pace Projection +/-		-5.6
Projected Starters	Jrue Holiday	E’Twaun Moore	Dante Cunningham	Anthony Davis	DeMarcus Cousins		Projected Starters	Lonzo Ball	Brandon Ingram	Luol Deng	Julius Randle	Brook Lopez
Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C		Opponent Rank	PG	SG	SF	PF	C
Opponent DRPM		-2.88	1.51	-1.04	0.37		Opponent DRPM	1.40	-1.63	-0.47	3.65	0.57

New Orleans Pelicans

Notable Injuries

Alexis Ajinca (Out)
Rajon Rondo (Out)

The last game of the day also figures to be a very fantasy-friendly contest between the Pelicans and Lakers. As was the case with the Hawks/Nets contest, we have a Vegas total of 222 points and a close spread. The Lakers will rival the Nets as one of the worst defensive squads in the league, and they also play at a very fast tempo. Julius Randle, Larry Nance, Brook Lopez, and company have almost zero chance at slowing down the dynamic big man combination of Anthony Davis and DeMarcus Cousins. If you are playing cash games today, you absolutely have to play one of the two. If you are making multiple GPP lineups, you have to get exposure to both of them. This is far and away the best fantasy spot of the day, period.

Jrue Holiday will continue to run the offense in the absence of Rajon Rondo. Though he is coming off an underwhelming game against the Warriors on Friday, he did take 16 shots in that contest, and easy opportunities for assists should be there against the Lakers. Expect a bounce-back performance here. The Pelicans signed Jameer Nelson yesterday and plan to waive Jordan Crawford, so make sure you don’t roster Crawford today. I guarantee that he will be rostered by a few people today, as he was utilized in the first two games and has a very cheap DFS price tag. If you are looking for a punt play today, give E’Twaun Moore a peek, especially if Nelson is not cleared to play yet. Without Crawford and Nelson, Moore would likely see around 36 minutes in this game. He’s not a sexy option and won’t put up a huge game, but he is cheap, and we need punt plays somewhere in order to fit the studs in today.

Matchup vs. Los Angeles Lakers

Points Allowed Per Game: 119.0 (26 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 97.5 (9 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.9 (21 of 30)
Pace of Play: 109.9 (3 of 30)

Elite Plays – Anthony Davis, DeMarcus Cousins, Jrue Holiday

Secondary Plays – E’Twaun Moore

Los Angeles Lakers

Notable Injuries

None

The Lakers rebounded from a disappointing opening night loss with a 132-130 win over the Suns on Friday night, and this team is almost certainly going to score some points this season. It’s the defense that will be a problem. Lonzo Ball almost put up a triple-double in that game, but he does draw a more difficult matchup today. It’s hard to argue him as a top point guard option today, as I prefer Westbrook, Russell, and Schroder over him. With Russell and Schroder also carrying similar price points, Bell is relegated to secondary status as a GPP option. Don’t take the risk in cash games. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope will return from his two game suspension today, which will send Corey Brewer back to the bench. I want to see how many minutes he will get on a regular basis before putting him into any lineups, but you can make the case for it at a reasonable price tag.

Regardless of whether or not you are a believer in Brandon Ingram, it is clear that the Lakers expect him to be a primary scorer on this team. He played 37 minutes on Friday despite fouling out, and he scored 25 points in the victory. The wing spots don’t carry much depth on this slate, making Ingram an interesting option at a mid-range price point. I’ll have some exposure today. Julius Randle has more DFS upside than Larry Nance, and the Lakers will give him the minutes on the nights that he is playing well. He’s also better served in a matchup against Davis and Cousins. Give Randle a look in GPP formats today, though the minutes have been shaky in the first two games. Nance is the safer cash game option. Lastly, Brook Lopez falls into a similar boat as Lonzo Ball. Lopez is going to get abused defensively in this game, and it’s hard to argue for him at center with Davis and Cousins on the other side, and Karl-Anthony Towns checking in as the preferred GPP pivot. If you are stacking this game up, feel free to throw Lopez in, but he is not a cash game option today.

In short, the Lakers are full of secondary plays with GPP upside here, but nobody checks in as a truly elite option outside of Ingram.

Matchup vs. New Orleans Pelicans

Points Allowed Per Game: 115.5 (22 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 101.7 (14 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -4.6 (29 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.0 (25 of 30)

Elite Plays – Brandon Ingram

Secondary Plays – Lonzo Ball (GPP), Brook Lopez (GPP), Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Julius Randle (GPP), Larry Nance (Cash)