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NBA Grind Down: Thursday, December 10th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2015-12-11 16:50:20

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

Every game is also broken down by our NBA experts, providing an overview of the game and a selection of players to consider from each contest.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

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Philadelphia 76ers at Brooklyn Nets – 7:30 PM

Philadelphia 76ers Brooklyn Nets
philadelphianba Vegas Total 196.5 brooklynnba Vegas Total 196.5
Vegas Sprd 7.0 Vegas Sprd -7.0
Team Proj. 94.8 Team Proj. 101.8
Team Pace 99.60 Team Pace 98.90
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Tony Wroten Isaiah Canaan Robert Covington Nerlens Noel Jahlil Okafor Proj. Starter Jarrett Jack Joe Johnson Bojan Bogdanovic Thaddeus Young Brook Lopez
Opp. Season 25 29 26 4 21 Opp. Season 12 6 29 29 24
Opp. Last 7 15 29 29 26 6 Opp. Last 7 12 6 19 30 20

Philadelphia 76ers

Record: 1-21 — Road: 0-12 — Last 10: 1-9

The Sixers are coming off of yet another loss, only this one was worse than any other loss they have had this season. They lost by 51 points to the Spurs at home. They have been so bad that the NBA has stepped in, hiring Jerry Colangelo in their front office. It’s going to be a long time before the Sixers are competitive again. They are listed as 7-point underdogs tonight against the Nets. The hope is that they will be able to keep the game close enough that the starters will see their usual complement of minutes.

The Nets have not fared well defensively this season. They are ranked 21st or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. The Sixers implied team total of 94.8 points is by far the lowest on the schedule tonight. However, it’s not all bad news, as their total is actually four points higher than their average points scored this season.

The biggest issue with the Sixers is their current form. There isn’t one player in their lineup that you can really feel 100% confident in targeting tonight. However, with only four games on the slate, it’s hard to avoid this team completely. Isaiah Canaan is a borderline elite play here. While is production has been down recently, he has averaged 29.5 minutes over his last five games. He draws a favorable matchup against Jarrett Jack and the Nets, who are ranked 25th against point guards and 29th against shooting guards. Tony Wroten is expected to start at point guard, but he is on a 16-minute restriction. He can safely be avoided in all league formats until his playing time increases. Robert Covington and Jahlil Okafor are both secondary options at their respective positions.

Elite Plays

Isaiah Canaan

FD — $4,800 — PG
DK — $5,000 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 17.2 | Last Five Games: 16.3
Min/Game — Season: 26.7 | Last Five Games: 29.5
FP/Game — Season: 17.9 | Last Five Games: 18.9

Secondary Plays

Robert Covington

FD — $6,700 — SF
DK — $7,200 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 17.6 | Last Five Games: 15.7
Min/Game — Season: 30.0 | Last Five Games: 32.0
FP/Game — Season: 28.0 | Last Five Games: 29.2

Jahlil Okafor

FD — $6,100 — C
DK — $6,400 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 21.9 | Last Five Games: 19.8
Min/Game — Season: 32.6 | Last Five Games: 30.2
FP/Game — Season: 29.0 | Last Five Games: 19.9

Brooklyn Nets

Record: 6-15 — Home: 5-4 — Last 10: 4-6

The Nets have lost six of their last ten games, but they have a good chance of picking up a win tonight at home. They draw a favorable matchup against the Sixers, who still only have one victory on the season. The Nets are listed as 7-point favorites tonight in a game that features a total of 196.5 points.

In news that should not surprise anyone that has paid attention to the NBA this season, the Sixers are one of the worst defenses in the NBA this season. They are ranked 20th or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game. The Nets are projected to score 101.8 points tonight, which is 5.5 points higher than their average points scored this season.

Rondae Hollis-Jefferson will miss another game tonight, which means Bojan Bogdanovic will draw another start. Bogdanovic is coming off of his best game of the season, scoring 30.8 fantasy points in 38 minutes of action. His minutes will largely depend on how well he is playing that night, but he should be a lock for 25+ minutes tonight against a bad Sixers’ defense. He is one of the best value plays on the board tonight. Brook Lopez and Thaddeus Young should both be able to dominate down low. The Sixers don’t defend the paint well and they have the worst rebounding differential in the NBA. Jarrett Jack, Joe Johnson, and Shane Larkin are all viable secondary options tonight.

Elite Plays

Brook Lopez

FD — $8,300 — C
DK — $7,700 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 22.5 | Last Five Games: 23.2
Min/Game — Season: 34.4 | Last Five Games: 34.7
FP/Game — Season: 36.0 | Last Five Games: 37.5

Thaddeus Young

FD — $7,000 — PF
DK — $7,400 — PF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 19.2 | Last Five Games: 20.4
Min/Game — Season: 32.0 | Last Five Games: 33.7
FP/Game — Season: 31.1 | Last Five Games: 33.1

Bojan Bogdanovic

FD — $3,900 — SF
DK — $4,200 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 14.3 | Last Five Games: 13.6
Min/Game — Season: 24.2 | Last Five Games: 23.3
FP/Game — Season: 14.1 | Last Five Games: 16.8

Secondary Plays

Jarrett Jack

FD — $6,200 — PG
DK — $6,200 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 19.2 | Last Five Games: 15.9
Min/Game — Season: 31.8 | Last Five Games: 30.9
FP/Game — Season: 27.7 | Last Five Games: 22.7

Joe Johnson

FD — $5,800 — SG
DK — $5,500 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 15.6 | Last Five Games: 13.8
Min/Game — Season: 35.0 | Last Five Games: 37.1
FP/Game — Season: 22.8 | Last Five Games: 23.2

Shane Larkin

FD — $4,400 — PG
DK — $4,500 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 16.4 | Last Five Games: 16.1
Min/Game — Season: 19.1 | Last Five Games: 23.6
FP/Game — Season: 16.9 | Last Five Games: 21.6

Atlanta Hawks at Oklahoma City Thunder – 8:00 PM

Atlanta Hawks Oklahoma City Thunder
atlantanba Vegas Total 212.0 oklahomacitynba Vegas Total 212.0
Vegas Sprd 7.0 Vegas Sprd -7.0
Team Proj. 102.5 Team Proj. 109.5
Team Pace 98.30 Team Pace 100.40
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Jeff Teague Kyle Korver Thabo Sefolosha Paul Millsap Al Horford Proj. Starter Russell Westbrook Andre Roberson Kevin Durant Serge Ibaka Steven Adams
Opp. Season 18 11 8 17 7 Opp. Season 17 20 13 16 23
Opp. Last 7 23 1 4 16 10 Opp. Last 7 10 20 2 12 4

Atlanta Hawks

Record: 14-9 — Road: 6-5 — Last 10: 6-4

The Hawks haven’t exactly been playing their best basketball of late, but they have still won six of their last ten games. They are playing in the second half of a back-to-back, after picking up a tough win against the Mavericks in Dallas last night. The Hawks now head to Oklahoma City to take on a red-hot Thunder team. The Hawks are listed as 7-point underdogs tonight on the road.

The Thunder play at a very fast pace, but they are still stout defensively. On the season, they are ranked tenth in defensive efficiency, first in rebounding differential, and 11th in fantasy points allowed per game. Pace is expected to win out in this matchup though, as the Hawks are projected to score 102.5 points tonight, which is the third-highest team total on the board.

The main issue with the Hawks tonight is that they could potentially rest a starter or two in the second half of a back-to-back. This is a strategy that coach Mike Budenholzer employed many times last season. If any of the starters do get the night off, their backups would obviously see a nice fantasy boost. Assuming everyone is able to play, Paul Millsap and Jeff Teague are the two options on my radar in this one. They have the best matchups of the five starters. Al Horford draws a difficult matchup against Steven Adams, but at his price he deserves consideration. Thabo Sefolosha could provide nice value at small forward, as he will be tasked with defending Kevin Durant.

Elite Plays

Paul Millsap

FD — $8,400 — PF
DK — $8,300 — PF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 20.4 | Last Five Games: 21.6
Min/Game — Season: 33.7 | Last Five Games: 33.0
FP/Game — Season: 39.0 | Last Five Games: 38.7

Jeff Teague

FD — $6,800 — PG
DK — $6,800 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 23.3 | Last Five Games: 21.2
Min/Game — Season: 30.1 | Last Five Games: 30.0
FP/Game — Season: 29.5 | Last Five Games: 24.6

Secondary Plays

Al Horford

FD — $7,000 — C
DK — $6,900 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 19.1 | Last Five Games: 17.6
Min/Game — Season: 31.4 | Last Five Games: 31.7
FP/Game — Season: 32.1 | Last Five Games: 32.7

Thabo Sefolosha

If he is in the lineup tonight. If not, bump up Kent Bazemore.
FD — $4,400 — SF
DK — $4,900 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 11.0 | Last Five Games: 10.2
Min/Game — Season: 25.1 | Last Five Games: 30.8
FP/Game — Season: 19.6 | Last Five Games: 20.5

Oklahoma City Thunder

Record: 13-8 — Home: 9-3 — Last 10: 7-3

The Thunder have won seven of their last ten games and most of their wins have been in dominating fashion. They are listed as 7-point favorites tonight against the Hawks at home. This game does have the potential to turn into a blowout, but if the Hawks can keep it close, it will be a great game to target. The total is set at 212 points, which is easily the highest in this short slate.

The Hawks have improved their play on the defensive end of the floor recently, but they are still an average defensive team. They are ranked between 11th and 19th in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game this season. The Thunder are projected to score 109.5 points tonight. Not only is that the highest team total on the board, but it’s also slightly higher than their average points per game this season.

The big question tonight is going to be, do I roster Russell Westbrook, Kevin Durant, or both? I generally don’t like to wrap up that much of my salary cap into one team, but with only four games on the schedule, they are both in play tonight. Targeting both may not be the best tournament strategy because it limits your upside, but they can be used together in cash games. With the highest team total on the board, they are both elite plays tonight. Serge Ibaka could be worth a look at his discounted price point, but if you take that route, I would only roster one of the Thunder’s two superstars.

Elite Plays

Russell Westbrook

FD — $10,800 — PG
DK — $10,400 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 29.9 | Last Five Games: 25.3
Min/Game — Season: 34.2 | Last Five Games: 32.4
FP/Game — Season: 50.3 | Last Five Games: 40.1

Kevin Durant

FD — $10,300 — SF
DK — $10,100 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 24.9 | Last Five Games: 24.3
Min/Game — Season: 35.1 | Last Five Games: 36.3
FP/Game — Season: 44.7 | Last Five Games: 47.4

Secondary Plays

Serge Ibaka

FD — $6,100 — PF
DK — $6,000 — PF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 15.9 | Last Five Games: 15.3
Min/Game — Season: 31.9 | Last Five Games: 29.7
FP/Game — Season: 27.1 | Last Five Games: 25.4

Los Angeles Clippers at Chicago Bulls – 8:00 PM

Los Angeles Clippers Chicago Bulls
laclippersnba Vegas Total 201.0 chicagonba Vegas Total 201.0
Vegas Sprd 1.0 Vegas Sprd -1.0
Team Proj. 100.0 Team Proj. 101.0
Team Pace 99.60 Team Pace 100.30
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Chris Paul J.J. Redick Luc Richard Mbah a Moute Blake Griffin DeAndre Jordan Proj. Starter Derrick Rose Jimmy Butler Tony Snell Nikola Mirotic Pau Gasol
Opp. Season 23 12 21 9 27 Opp. Season 13 15 15 5 17
Opp. Last 7 21 11 8 22 30 Opp. Last 7 30 26 10 5 5

Los Angeles Clippers

Record: 13-9 — Road: 4-4 — Last 10: 7-3

The Clippers are finally playing up to their talent level. After a rough start to the season, they have won seven of their last ten games. They are playing in the second half of a back-to-back tonight, after beating the Bucks in Milwaukee last night. The Clippers are listed as 1-point underdogs tonight against the Bulls in Chicago.

The Bulls have played at a much quicker tempo this season, but they have maintained solid play on the defensive end of the floor. They are ranked ninth in points allowed per game and fourth in defensive efficiency. The Clippers have an implied team total of 100 points, which is 3.5 points lower than their average points per game this season.

Even though the Clippers are playing in the second half of a back-to-back, I don’t expect it to impact their minute distribution very much. Chris Paul could see a few less minutes, but the rest of the starters should see their usual playing time. Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan are my favorite two plays here. We all know the type of upside that Griffin offers at power forward and the Bulls have allowed the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing centers this season.

Elite Plays

Blake Griffin

FD — $9,300 — PF
DK — $9,200 — PF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 26.7 | Last Five Games: 26.2
Min/Game — Season: 34.4 | Last Five Games: 36.8
FP/Game — Season: 42.5 | Last Five Games: 41.0

DeAndre Jordan

FD — $7,500 — C
DK — $7,100 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 12.1 | Last Five Games: 13.8
Min/Game — Season: 32.2 | Last Five Games: 34.2
FP/Game — Season: 33.7 | Last Five Games: 37.9

Secondary Plays

Chris Paul

FD — $8,600 — PG
DK — $8,400 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 22.2 | Last Five Games: 21.9
Min/Game — Season: 31.3 | Last Five Games: 31.2
FP/Game — Season: 34.6 | Last Five Games: 31.6

J.J. Redick

FD — $4,200 — SG
DK — $4,000 — SG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 17.9 | Last Five Games: 23.4
Min/Game — Season: 25.7 | Last Five Games: 21.4
FP/Game — Season: 17.9 | Last Five Games: 18.2

Chicago Bulls

Record: 11-8 — Home: 7-3 — Last 10: 5-5

The Bulls have lost five of their last ten games, but they do have a 7-3 record at home. The Bulls will also be playing in the second half of a back-to-back tonight, as they host the visiting Clippers. This game is expected to stay close throughout, which is important, as two of the four games on tap tonight have a spread of at least seven points.

The Clippers have been very mediocre defensively this season. They are ranked between 12th and 17th in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. The Bulls are projected to score 101 points tonight, which is two points higher than their average points per game this season.

Pau Gasol has been playing at an incredibly high level recently. Even though he rarely plays more than 30 minutes, he has averaged 47.2 fantasy points per game in his last five. He is an elite play tonight against the Clippers, who have the fourth worst rebounding differential this season. Jimmy Butler is also an elite play here. The Clippers don’t have anyone that can match up with his ability to both shoot and attack the rim. Taj Gibson drew the start at power forward last night, but his minutes aren’t going to change much. Gasol is the only Bulls’ big man on my radar tonight.

Elite Plays

Pau Gasol

FD — $8,500 — PF
DK — $7,700 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 21.8 | Last Five Games: 25.9
Min/Game — Season: 29.1 | Last Five Games: 30.1
FP/Game — Season: 36.4 | Last Five Games: 47.2

Jimmy Butler

FD — $8,200 — SG
DK — $7,500 — SG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 19.9 | Last Five Games: 20.7
Min/Game — Season: 37.1 | Last Five Games: 38.4
FP/Game — Season: 35.6 | Last Five Games: 34.0

Secondary Plays

Derrick Rose

FD — $6,900 — PG
DK — $6,500 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 22.4 | Last Five Games: 21.6
Min/Game — Season: 33.1 | Last Five Games: 35.2
FP/Game — Season: 26.3 | Last Five Games: 27.8

Taj Gibson

FD — $4,500 — PF
DK — $4,000 — PF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 13.0 | Last Five Games: 15.4
Min/Game — Season: 21.2 | Last Five Games: 20.2
FP/Game — Season: 17.4 | Last Five Games: 19.4

New York Knicks at Sacramento Kings – 10:30 PM

New York Knicks Sacramento Kings
newyorknba Vegas Total 207.5 sacramentonba Vegas Total 207.5
Vegas Sprd 6.0 Vegas Sprd -6.0
Team Proj. 100.8 Team Proj. 106.8
Team Pace 97.00 Team Pace 101.90
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Jose Calderon Arron Afflalo Carmelo Anthony Kristaps Porzingis Robin Lopez Proj. Starter Rajon Rondo Ben McLemore Rudy Gay Omri Casspi DeMarcus Cousins
Opp. Season 22 26 22 27 25 Opp. Season 9 24 9 6 14
Opp. Last 7 22 21 21 19 27 Opp. Last 7 13 16 22 21 9

New York Knicks

Record: 10-13 — Road: 5-6 — Last 10: 3-7

The Knicks have lost seven of their last ten games, including a blowout loss to the Jazz last night in Utah. They now have to turn around and take on the Knicks in Sacramento tonight. The Knicks are listed as 6-point underdogs tonight in a game that features a total of 207.5 points.

The Kings have been one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA this season. They are ranked 28th or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. This will be a pace-up game for the Knicks and their implied team total of 100.8 points is markedly higher than their average points per game this season (96.7).

The Knicks are technically playing in the second half of a back-to-back, but the starters barely broke a sweat last night against the Jazz. Carmelo Anthony and Kristaps Porzingis are both in nice bounce back spots tonight against the Kings. I have them with similar fantasy point projections, so I’d lean toward whichever one is cheaper. In the case of the two main fantasy sites, Anthony is cheaper on DraftKings and Porzingis is cheaper on FanDuel. Jose Calderon and Arron Afflalo are decent punt plays at their respective positions.

Elite Plays

Carmelo Anthony

FD — $8,200 — SF
DK — $7,600 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 26.1 | Last Five Games: 25.7
Min/Game — Season: 34.1 | Last Five Games: 30.7
FP/Game — Season: 34.8 | Last Five Games: 28.4

Kristaps Porzingis

FD — $7,200 — PF
DK — $7,800 — PF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 19.8 | Last Five Games: 20.3
Min/Game — Season: 28.0 | Last Five Games: 25.3
FP/Game — Season: 29.1 | Last Five Games: 26.9

Secondary Plays

Arron Afflalo

FD — $4,800 — SG
DK — $4,400 — SG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 17.0 | Last Five Games: 14.8
Min/Game — Season: 30.3 | Last Five Games: 27.2
FP/Game — Season: 19.4 | Last Five Games: 18.0

Jose Calderon

FD — $4,700 — PG
DK — $4,300 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 11.9 | Last Five Games: 10.9
Min/Game — Season: 27.3 | Last Five Games: 27.5
FP/Game — Season: 17.9 | Last Five Games: 22.7

Sacramento Kings

Record: 8-15 — Home: 6-7 — Last 10: 4-6

The Kings have lost six of their last ten games, but they did pick up a nice win against the Jazz the other night. Seeing as how the Knicks got smoked by the Jazz, the Kings should have no problem beating the Knicks, right? Unfortunately, that’s not how is works in the NBA. The Kings are listed as 6-point favorites tonight at home in a game that features a total of 207.5 points.

The Knicks defensive numbers have really taken a hit in the last week or two. They are now ranked 11th in points allowed per game and 17th in defensive efficiency. The Kings are projected to score 106.8 points tonight, which is the second-highest team total on the board.

There are three fantasy options that stand out tonight against the Knicks. Omri Casspi has really taken advantage of his chance to start with Willie Cauley-Stein out. He is coming off of a huge game against the Jazz and he should see 32+ minutes again tonight. His matchup against Kristaps Porzingis is a difficult one, but Casspi is still one of the best values on the board. DeMarcus Cousins and Rajon Rondo are also in play here. With a team total of 106.8 points, both players should be heavily involved offensively.

Elite Plays

DeMarcus Cousins

FD — $9,800 — C
DK — $10,200 — PF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 29.3 | Last Five Games: 27.7
Min/Game — Season: 32.8 | Last Five Games: 32.6
FP/Game — Season: 43.3 | Last Five Games: 37.0

Omri Casspi

FD — $4,600 — SF
DK — $5,300 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 14.6 | Last Five Games: 15.8
Min/Game — Season: 27.6 | Last Five Games: 33.6
FP/Game — Season: 21.5 | Last Five Games: 24.8

Secondary Plays

Rajon Rondo

FD — $8,400 — PG
DK — $8,500 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 18.1 | Last Five Games: 18.4
Min/Game — Season: 35.3 | Last Five Games: 32.6
FP/Game — Season: 37.4 | Last Five Games: 36.1

About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious