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NBA Grind Down: Thursday, December 22nd

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-12-23 01:11:18

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.

Boston Celtics at Indiana Pacers – 7:00 PM ET

Boston Celtics Indiana Pacers
bostonnba Vegas Total 210.0 indiananba Vegas Total 210.0
Vegas Spread -1.5 Vegas Spread 1.5
Team Total 105.8 Team Total 104.3
Pace +/- 1.5 Pace +/- -0.6
Proj. Starter Isaiah Thomas Avery Bradley Jae Crowder Amir Johnson Al Horford Proj. Starter Jeff Teague Glenn Robinson Paul George Thaddeus Young Myles Turner
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 20 18 16 24 18 DvP 10 6 27 18 21
DRPM 0.32 -1.09 -0.41 1.05 1.78 DRPM -2.98 -2.29 1.51 1.09 1.90

Boston Celtics

The Celtics are looking for their fourth win in a row tonight, as they take on the Pacers on the road. This should be a great game to target for fantasy production, as both teams are ranked in the bottom 12 in fantasy points allowed per game this season. The Celtics come into the game as 1.5-point favorites with an implied total of 105.8 points. Even though their team total is right around the average of the ten teams in action, it is 1.3 points above their season average.

Isaiah Thomas scored 44 actual points against the Grizzlies the other night. While the game did go to overtime, that is still an impressive feat. Scoring 44 points against the Grizzlies is the equivalent of scoring 75 points against the Nets. Thomas remains an elite play tonight against a Pacers’ defense that is ranked 20th against point guards. The issue with Thomas is that he plays a position that is loaded with options tonight. Avery Bradley and Jae Crowder are both safe cash game options on the wing. Glenn Robinson, Paul George, and C.J. Miles all have negative DRPMs on the season. Al Horford has been tremendous in Brad Stevens’ offense. Over his last three games, he is averaging 35.2 minutes and 42.8 fantasy points. Horford is a little too expensive on FanDuel ($8,000) and a little too cheap on DraftKings ($6,800).

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Isaiah Thomas $8,400 $8,000 1.17 33.3 0.4 38.8 3.7 34.6% -3.4% 20 0.32
Avery Bradley $6,800 $6,100 0.90 35.4 -1.0 31.7 -6.3 22.1% -1.9% 18 -1.09
Jae Crowder $5,500 $5,200 0.81 31.0 5.3 25.1 0.5 17.4% -2.8% 16 -0.41
Amir Johnson $3,500 $3,100 0.77 19.6 -0.7 15.1 -3.2 14.3% -2.8% 24 1.05
Al Horford $8,000 $6,800 1.09 33.0 2.2 36.1 6.7 23.2% 1.1% 18 1.78
Marcus Smart $4,700 $4,000 0.72 30.2 -5.5 21.7 -7.0 19.9% -2.7% 20 N/A

Elite Plays – Isaiah Thomas, Jae Crowder, Avery Bradley (DK), Al Horford (DK)

Secondary Plays – Avery Bradley (FD)

Indiana Pacers

The Pacers seem to be 5-5 in their last ten games every time I check. They are also .500 overall with a 15-15 record. Maybe they just like the number five. They come into tonight’s game as 1.5-point underdogs against the Celtics. While Boston is ranked ninth in points allowed per game, Vegas is expecting a close, high scoring affair tonight. The Pacers have an implied total of 104.3 points, which is nearly identical to their season average. Rodney Stuckey and Monta Ellis have already been ruled out of tonight’s game.

With Monta Ellis off the floor, Jeff Teague sees a 4% usage boost. He has really taken advantage of Ellis’ absence, averaging 45 fantasy points in his last three games. On a night with so many great point guard options, Teague will be lower owned than he should be. He draws one of the best individual matchups in the slate, as Isaiah Thomas has a DRPM of -2.98 on the season. Glenn Robinson and C.J. Miles are both decent punt plays at small forward, but I’m giving the edge to guys like Luol Deng, Justise Winslow, and James Johnson at similar price points. Paul George grades out as a decent play tonight, but Avery Bradley and Jae Crowder are both good defenders. Dollar for dollar, I prefer Carmelo Anthony over George. Thaddeus Young has really played well in his last three games, averaging 35.7 minutes and 34.3 fantasy points per game. He will likely be the chalk power forward on FanDuel at a price of only $5,000. Myles Turner is finally seeing minutes in the 30s on a regular basis. While Al Horford is a good defender, the Celtics are ranked 21st against centers and 28th in rebounding differential this season.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Jeff Teague $7,700 $7,100 1.05 32.1 3.8 33.6 11.4 26.5% 2.5% 10 -2.98
Glenn Robinson $4,000 $3,800 0.59 21.1 12.3 12.5 2.0 12.8% -1.5% 6 -2.29
Paul George $7,900 $7,900 1.01 35.6 1.1 36.1 0.5 26.7% 1.2% 27 1.51
Thaddeus Young $5,000 $5,400 0.75 30.9 4.8 23.1 4.3 16.1% 0.0% 18 1.09
Myles Turner $6,700 $6,600 1.05 29.4 1.7 30.9 3.4 19.5% 0.1% 21 1.90
C.J. Miles $4,200 $4,100 0.80 22.5 4.2 18.1 -1.7 18.3% -3.1% 27 N/A

Elite Plays – Jeff Teague, Thaddeus Young, Myles Turner (FD)

Secondary Plays – Paul George, Myles Turner (DK)

Orlando Magic at New York Knicks – 7:30 PM ET

Orlando Magic New York Knicks
orlandonba Vegas Total 211.5 newyorknba Vegas Total 211.5
Vegas Spread 5.0 Vegas Spread -5.0
Team Total 103.3 Team Total 108.3
Pace +/- 0.9 Pace +/- -1.4
Proj. Starter D.J. Augustin Evan Fournier Aaron Gordon Serge Ibaka Bismack Biyombo Proj. Starter Derrick Rose Courtney Lee Carmelo Anthony Kristaps Porzingis Joakim Noah
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 15 28 21 14 29 DvP 19 10 11 9 26
DRPM -1.94 -0.21 -1.38 0.76 1.98 DRPM -1.94 -1.57 -1.04 0.54 1.02

Orlando Magic

The Magic are playing their best basketball of the season, which is kind of sad given the fact that they are only 5-5 in their last ten games. Tonight they head to New York to take on a Knicks’ team that is ranked 25th in points allowed per game and 26th in defensive efficiency. This game has the potential to turn into a shootout, as we have seen Orlando have some extremely high scoring games recently (266 combined points in their double-OT game against the Heat). Orlando has an implied total of 103.3 points tonight against New York. While that may be the fourth lowest in the slate, it is 5.2 points above their season average which gives them the third highest projected point differential tonight.

D.J. Augustin is the starter in name, but is an easy fade in DFS given the fact that he only plays 20-22 minutes per game. Elfrid Payton actually benefits from coming off the bench, as he has a higher usage rate with the second unit and he gets to face opposing team’s backup point guards. Payton is a little too expensive to use in cash games, but I always want a few shares of Elf on the Shelf in tournaments. Evan Fournier draws a nice matchup against a Knicks’ defense that has allowed the third most fantasy points to shooting guards this season. Aaron Gordon would typically grade out as a nice value play in this matchup, but I prefer the likes of Justise Winslow, James Johnson, and Luol Deng at similar price points. Serge Ibaka is in play tonight thanks to a lack of options at power forward. That may not be a ringing endorsement, but he’s not a bad play for the price. Bismack Biyombo is a viable punt play at center, especially on DraftKings ($4,300). Nikola Vucevic is averaging 38.1 fantasy points in last three games, but his price is the highest it’s been in weeks.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
D.J. Augustin $3,700 $3,400 0.74 20.7 1.6 15.2 3.1 22.2% 3.3% 15 -1.94
Evan Fournier $6,000 $6,000 0.79 33.3 0.3 26.4 1.9 24.1% 2.2% 28 -0.21
Aaron Gordon $4,200 $4,500 0.74 26.1 -0.4 19.4 -3.7 20.0% -0.1% 21 -1.38
Serge Ibaka $6,200 $5,900 0.91 30.5 0.8 27.7 2.9 19.9% -1.7% 14 0.76
Bismack Biyombo $4,700 $4,300 0.76 26.4 1.1 20.0 3.3 12.8% -0.2% 29 1.98
Nikola Vucevic $7,000 $6,400 1.13 27.9 4.2 31.5 6.6 24.9% 3.8% 29 N/A
Elfrid Payton $5,800 $5,600 0.90 28.7 -1.5 25.9 0.3 24.4% 2.4% 15 N/A

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Elfrid Payton (GPP), Evan Fournier, Serge Ibaka, Bismack Biyombo, Nikola Vucevic (DK)

New York Knicks

The Knicks have won six of their last ten games and are now battling for potential home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs. We are obviously a long ways away from the playoffs, but it’s nice to see the Knicks relevant again. They draw a favorable matchup tonight against the Magic, who are ranked 19th in defensive efficiency and 24th in rebounding differential this season. The Knicks are listed as 5-point favorites with an implied total of 108.3 points. Their team total is the third highest in the slate and three full points above their season average.

Derrick Rose is having his best season in years, averaging 28.2 fantasy points with a true usage rate of 27.5%. He draws an excellent matchup against the likes of Elfrid Payton and D.J. Augustin, who both have negative DRPMs this season. Rose should fly under the radar tonight, making him an attractive GPP option. Carmelo Anthony is affordable across the industry and he comes into the game in great form, averaging 43 fantasy points over his last three games. Aaron Gordon may be a big small forward, but Anthony should have no issues scoring against him. Kristaps Porzingis and Joakim Noah draw the toughest two matchups of the starters. Serge Ibaka and Bismack Biyombo are both excellent defenders. Porzingis is still worth a look in tournaments, but I’d much rather target Draymond Green against the Nets at a similar price point.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Derrick Rose $6,400 $6,300 0.90 31.2 4.7 28.2 9.7 27.5% 4.6% 19 -1.94
Courtney Lee $3,900 $3,800 0.57 30.7 4.3 17.5 -1.5 14.2% -0.3% 10 -1.57
Carmelo Anthony $7,900 $7,700 1.02 34.3 2.0 35.0 8.0 28.4% 0.0% 11 -1.04
Kristaps Porzingis $7,800 $7,600 1.01 34.6 0.9 34.8 -6.1 23.4% -1.0% 9 0.54
Joakim Noah $4,300 $4,100 0.92 21.5 -2.9 19.8 -0.9 14.3% 5.4% 26 1.02
Willy Hernangomez $4,200 $3,200 1.00 13.9 3.2 13.9 6.1 19.0% -1.1% 26 N/A

Elite Plays – Carmelo Anthony

Secondary Plays – Derrick Rose (GPP), Kristaps Porzingis

Golden State Warriors at Brooklyn Nets – 7:30 PM ET

Golden State Warriors Brooklyn Nets
goldenstatenba Vegas Total 232.0 brooklynnba Vegas Total 232.0
Vegas Spread -14.0 Vegas Spread 14.0
Team Total 123.0 Team Total 109.0
Pace +/- 5.4 Pace +/- 3.7
Proj. Starter Stephen Curry Klay Thompson Kevin Durant Draymond Green Zaza Pachulia Proj. Starter Jeremy Lin Sean Kilpatrick Bojan Bogdanovic Trevor Booker Brook Lopez
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 29 29 29 28 30 DvP 14 15 7 22 10
DRPM -0.10 -2.10 -2.72 2.04 0.11 DRPM -0.78 -2.75 2.08 4.38 2.82

Golden State Warriors

I’m both excited about this game and a little disappointed. There will be very few times during the season when the Warriors are going to have an implied total of 123 points. There will obviously be a lot of times when they score that many points, but to have that high of an implied total is special. The issue that I have is that the Warriors are all too cheap on both FanDuel and DraftKings, which is going to inflate their ownership. We’ll get to that in a bit though. The Warriors draw the best possible matchup tonight, as they get to face the Nets. On the season, Brooklyn is ranked first in pace of play and dead last in points allowed per game. The best part is that the game is being played in Brooklyn, which is why the spread is set at only 14 points. If this game stays close, the big four from Golden State could all reach value.

I could break down each matchup individually, but I would basically be saying the same thing. The Nets are ranked 28th or worse in fantasy points allowed to all five positions on the floor. Stephen Curry is only $8,100 on DraftKings in the best matchup possible for a point guard. If you don’t have him in your cash game lineup, all hope may be lost. Klay Thompson is more inconsistent than the other studs in this lineup, but he should get a ton of open looks against the likes of Sean Kilpatrick and Joe Harris. Thompson could reach value with points alone. Kevin Durant is also too cheap tonight and he has the best individual matchup. Bojan Bogdanovic has one of the worst DRPMs of any player in the NBA this season. Draymond Green is probably the only Warriors’ player that is priced correctly, but like the other three, he is also an elite play. The Nets have the fifth worst rebounding differential in the NBA. We can target two or three of the Warriors players tonight in both cash games and tournaments. It really just depends on which players fit your lineup the best.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Stephen Curry $8,700 $8,100 1.20 33.0 -2.6 39.6 -6.2 30.0% -3.4% 29 -0.10
Klay Thompson $6,300 $6,500 0.86 33.5 -3.9 29.0 -1.2 24.4% -1.9% 29 -2.10
Kevin Durant $9,600 $9,000 1.36 34.0 -4.4 46.1 -3.1 27.8% 1.7% 29 -2.72
Draymond Green $8,100 $7,800 1.13 32.8 -2.3 37.2 -0.5 19.4% 1.4% 28 2.04
Zaza Pachulia $3,500 $3,000 0.88 17.4 -1.5 15.3 -4.1 14.1% -4.1% 30 0.11
Andre Iguodala $3,800 $3,400 0.69 24.7 -2.9 17.1 -1.2 12.3% 0.2% 29 N/A

Elite Plays – Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, Kevin Durant, Draymond Green

Secondary Plays – Andre Iguodala (DK)

Brooklyn Nets

The Nets are tied with the Sixers for the fewest number of wins in the NBA this season. While they will almost certainly add another loss to their resume tonight, they may be able to keep the game within striking distance. Six of their seven wins have come at home and they are only 14-point underdogs tonight against the Warriors. While the blowout is an obvious concern, the Nets have an implied total of 109 points, which is the second highest in the slate and 2.4 points above their season average.

Jeremy Lin has scored at least 22 fantasy points in every game since returning from injury, but he has yet to play more than 25 minutes. Until he starts playing 28-30 minutes or until his price comes down, he remains an easy fade in DFS. With Lin back in the lineup, Sean Kilpatrick production has gone way down. At this point, he is more of a GPP dart throw. Bojan Bogdanovic is an interesting tournament play, although the Nets won’t be able to hide his defensive inefficiencies. If his shot isn’t falling, they may look elsewhere at small forward. Trevor Booker has the most difficult individual matchup in all of fantasy basketball. Draymond Green leads the NBA with a DRPM of +4.38. Brook Lopez is really the only fantasy option on my radar from the Nets. He is finally seeing 30 minutes on a regular basis and he is averaging 46.3 fantasy points in his last three games.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Jeremy Lin $6,400 $5,700 1.13 24.6 -2.4 27.8 -3.9 28.6% 0.3% 14 -0.78
Sean Kilpatrick $5,000 $4,500 0.88 27.6 -2.0 24.2 -6.3 25.5% -7.4% 15 -2.75
Bojan Bogdanovic $4,400 $4,400 0.75 27.4 -2.8 20.5 -3.4 21.1% -0.3% 7 2.08
Trevor Booker $5,500 $5,600 0.95 28.2 -1.5 26.9 -9.7 16.9% -1.3% 22 4.38
Brook Lopez $7,800 $6,700 1.16 28.8 2.9 33.4 12.9 28.2% 0.9% 10 2.82
Isaiah Whitehead $3,600 $3,000 0.62 22.9 -0.6 14.3 0.1 18.3% -3.0% 14 N/A

Elite Plays – Brook Lopez (DK)

Secondary Plays – Brook Lopez (FD), Bojan Bogdanovic, Trevor Booker

Editor’s Note: Julius Randle (personal) has been ruled OUT for tonight.

Los Angeles Lakers at Miami Heat – 8:00 PM ET

Los Angeles Lakers Miami Heat
lalakersnba Vegas Total 209.5 miaminba Vegas Total 209.5
Vegas Spread 4.5 Vegas Spread -4.5
Team Total 102.5 Team Total 107.0
Pace +/- -2.0 Pace +/- 2.4
Proj. Starter D’Angelo Russell Nick Young Luol Deng Julius Randle Timofey Mozgov Proj. Starter Goran Dragic Josh Richardson Justise Winslow Josh McRoberts Hassan Whiteside
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 4 6 20 7 23 DvP 25 27 30 28 28
DRPM -1.98 -0.35 0.43 -0.01 1.20 DRPM -0.71 -1.49 0.39 0.05 -0.41

Los Angeles Lakers

We have a tidy five game slate on tap tonight. The first game of the night features two contrasting styles of basketball. The Lakers like to push the tempo and outscore teams in transition, while the Heat like to slow the game down and impose their will on both ends of the floor. Try as they might, both teams are well below .500 this season. Los Angeles comes into tonight’s game as a 4.5-point underdog against a Heat defense that is ranked seventh in points allowed per game and 12th in defensive efficiency. The Lakers have an implied total of only 102.5 points, which is the third lowest in the slate and 2.2 points below their season average.

Editor’s Note: Julius Randle (personal) has been ruled OUT for tonight.

The Lakers have too many guards in their rotation right now. Even though Goran Dragic and Josh Richardson both have negative Defensive Real Plus-Minus (DRPM) grades, it’s hard to project any of the Lakers’ guards to play more than 26-28 minutes. Even in a five game slate, we are stretching it a little thin with those type of minutes. D’Angelo Russell and Lou Williams are my favorite two of the bunch, but I will only be using them as deep GPP fliers. Luol Deng has scored at least 25 fantasy points in five of his last six games. While the Heat are ranked 20th against small forwards, most of that damage came when Justise Winslow was out. Winslow is the best perimeter defender on the Heat, so bump Deng down a little in this matchup. Julius Randle could push for 30+ minutes tonight in a game where the Lakers will be without Tarik Black and Larry Nance. Randle stands out as a nice value play on DraftKings ($5,800).

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
D’Angelo Russell $5,900 $5,500 1.02 25.6 0.6 26.1 3.3 30.7% -2.7% 4 -1.98
Nick Young $4,600 $4,400 0.78 25.5 3.4 19.8 10.2 20.0% 3.8% 6 -0.35
Luol Deng $4,600 $4,600 0.71 26.2 7.0 18.6 7.0 15.2% -1.4% 20 0.43
Julius Randle $6,300 $5,800 0.97 28.7 2.3 27.8 4.6 23.5% 3.7% 7 -0.01
Timofey Mozgov $3,500 $3,200 0.73 20.9 -5.8 15.4 -7.4 17.0% -0.4% 23 1.20
Lou Williams $5,800 $5,600 1.10 25.2 0.7 27.8 1.5 30.7% -2.7% 6 N/A
Jordan Clarkson $5,100 $5,000 0.79 28.7 0.5 22.5 3.9 24.2% -4.0% 4 N/A

Elite Plays – Julius Randle (DK), Luol Deng (FD)

Secondary Plays – Julius Randle (FD), Luol Deng (DK), D’Angelo Russell (GPP), Lou Williams (GPP)

Miami Heat

In an interview with Pat Riley the other day, he said that despite their poor record, he is happy with the young core that the Heat have built. He failed to mention 30-year old Goran Dragic in that core, so we shouldn’t be surprised if they try to move him sometime before the deadline. That doesn’t have anything to do with tonight’s game, but I thought I would pass the information along. The Heat draw a terrific matchup tonight against the Lakers, who are ranked 27th in points allowed per game and 29th in defensive efficiency. Miami comes into the game with an implied total of 107 points, which is the fourth highest in the slate and a whopping 8.6 points above their season average.

Rodney McGruder, Dion Waiters, and Wayne Ellington have all been ruled out of tonight’s game, which opens the door for a number of plays on the Heat. Goran Dragic has scored at least 42 fantasy points in three of his last five games and should see around 35 minutes tonight against a Lakers’ defense that is ranked 25th against point guards this season. Tyler Johnson isn’t going to crack the starting lineup, but he should see around 30 minutes off the bench. Josh Richardson and Justise Winslow are expected to start at shooting guard and small forward and they could both see minutes in the mid 30s. Even though they didn’t do a lot in their minutes against the Magic the other night, they both grade out as excellent value plays. James Johnson has the best FP/min of any of the wing players for Miami and could see minutes in the upper 20s. Hassan Whiteside should dominate both ends of the floor against a Lakers’ frontcourt that is ranked 28th against centers and 19th in rebounding differential. There are arguably six elite plays from the Heat tonight.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Goran Dragic $7,400 $7,400 0.97 34.4 6.0 33.3 6.0 29.3% -0.5% 25 -0.71
Josh Richardson $4,200 $4,800 0.62 29.4 6.6 18.2 -2.3 19.5% -2.8% 27 -1.49
Justise Winslow $4,700 $5,100 0.67 34.7 0.9 23.2 -1.3 20.5% -1.1% 30 0.39
Josh McRoberts $3,500 $3,200 0.75 17.5 -1.0 13.2 -2.2 20.5% 1.9% 28 0.05
Hassan Whiteside $9,300 $9,200 1.22 33.8 4.7 41.2 7.6 22.7% -0.5% 28 -0.41
Tyler Johnson $5,700 $5,500 0.84 31.1 2.7 26.1 6.5 21.4% 1.4% 25 N/A
James Johnson $4,700 $4,200 0.84 24.5 -1.8 20.5 0.1 20.3% 3.4% 30 N/A

Elite Plays – Goran Dragic, Tyler Johnson, Josh Richardson (FD), Justise Winslow (FD), Hassan Whiteside, James Johnson (DK)

Secondary Plays – Josh Richardson (DK), Justise Winslow (DK), James Johnson (FD)

San Antonio Spurs at Los Angeles Clippers – 10:30 PM ET

San Antonio Spurs Los Angeles Clippers
sanantonionba Vegas Total 203.0 laclippersnba Vegas Total 203.0
Vegas Spread -1.5 Vegas Spread 1.5
Team Total 102.3 Team Total 100.8
Pace +/- 0.0 Pace +/- -2.5
Proj. Starter Tony Parker Danny Green Kawhi Leonard LaMarcus Aldridge Pau Gasol Proj. Starter Chris Paul J.J. Redick Luc Richard Mbah a Moute Paul Pierce DeAndre Jordan
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 16 2 10 5 7 DvP 8 23 2 4 3
DRPM 2.72 -1.34 2.63 0.71 2.60 DRPM -0.90 0.63 0.90 0.47 1.61

San Antonio Spurs

The Spurs are playing in the front end of a back-to-back, but this is a game that they want to win. Obviously, they want to win them all, but these are two teams that are battling for playoff positioning in the West. On paper, this shouldn’t be a great game for fantasy production. Both teams are ranked below the league average in pace of play and they are both ranked seventh or better in points allowed per game. I want to target players from this game, but the over/under is set at a measly 203 points. It is expected to be the lowest scoring game of the night by far. The only good news is that the game is expected to stay close and that’s a common situation for either of these teams to be in. Kawhi Leonard is really the only option from the Spurs that is on my radar tonight. He should play 35+ minutes in a big game against the Clippers. Leonard should draw the defense of Luc Richard Mbah a Moute (aka Monte Muto), but the expected minute boost makes up for the difficult matchup. While I like the spot for Leonard, I still prefer Carmelo Anthony and Kevin Durant dollar for dollar.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Tony Parker $4,200 $3,900 0.74 25.2 -0.4 18.7 -0.9 23.1% -2.7% 16 2.72
Danny Green $3,700 $3,500 0.64 25.1 -0.1 15.9 1.6 12.5% -1.4% 2 -1.34
Kawhi Leonard $8,000 $7,800 1.16 33.4 -4.0 38.7 -7.2 29.2% -2.6% 10 2.63
LaMarcus Aldridge $6,500 $6,400 0.92 32.1 -2.5 29.5 2.0 23.6% 5.5% 5 0.71
Pau Gasol $6,400 $5,700 1.03 26.3 -1.7 27.1 3.1 21.2% 0.7% 7 2.60
Patty Mills $4,200 $4,000 0.84 23.1 -2.6 19.5 -1.9 22.3% 1.9% 16 N/A

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Kawhi Leonard

Los Angeles Clippers

The Clippers are still going to win a lot of games without Blake Griffin. Their team is extremely talented and they have one of the best benches in the NBA. Games against elite teams are when the Clippers will miss Griffin the most. They come into tonight’s game as 1.5-point underdogs with an implied total of only 100.8 points. This is one of the worst possible matchups for fantasy production, as the Spurs are ranked fourth in points allowed per game and fourth in defensive efficiency. While I generally avoid taking players against the Spurs, the Clippers’ lineup sees a big boost in potential fantasy production with Griffin out and they should all play big minutes in what is expected to be a close game.

If you run the CourtIQ for Griffin off the floor, you will see that Chris Paul and DeAndre Jordan see the biggest fantasy boosts with Griffin out. Paul sees a usage boost of 3.3% and his FP/min jumps from 1.37 all the way up to 1.68. Basically, Paul averages 11.2 more fantasy points per 36 minutes when Griffin is off the floor compared to when he is on the floor. DeAndre Jordan doesn’t see a usage boost without Griffin in the lineup, but his FP/min goes up by 0.12. This is thanks to more rebounding opportunities. Paul and Jordan should also be expected to play a few extra minutes tonight in a close game against the Spurs. Basically, even though the matchup isn’t ideal, Paul and Jordan should still be on your radar. J.J. Redick is coming off of one of his best games of the season. He basically becomes the number two scorer in this offense with Griffin out. Austin Rivers and Jamal Crawford are both intriguing punt plays for tournaments.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Chris Paul $9,200 $9,400 1.29 31.8 0.8 40.9 -2.7 28.4% 2.2% 8 -0.90
J.J. Redick $4,400 $4,700 0.71 27.0 -0.3 19.2 5.2 21.6% 4.6% 23 0.63
Luc Richard Mbah a Moute $3,600 $3,300 0.54 23.0 0.6 12.3 1.8 10.7% 3.3% 2 0.90
Paul Pierce $3,500 $3,000 0.51 12.4 5.7 6.4 -0.2 14.2% 5.4% 4 0.47
DeAndre Jordan $7,400 $6,900 1.00 31.7 1.7 31.8 4.8 13.7% -2.1% 3 1.61
Jamal Crawford $3,500 $3,700 0.67 25.1 -2.6 16.9 -6.0 22.3% -0.6% 23 N/A
Austin Rivers $4,000 $3,900 0.65 23.6 3.2 15.2 1.2 18.0% -1.8% 8 N/A

Elite Plays – Chris Paul, DeAndre Jordan, J.J. Redick (FD)

Secondary Plays – J.J. Redick (DK), Jamal Crawford (GPP), Austin Rivers (GPP)

About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious