Sign In $

NBA Grind Down: Thursday, February 18th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-02-20 06:48:42

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

Every game is also broken down by our NBA experts, providing an overview of the game and a selection of players to consider from each contest.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

grind%20down%20article%20faq

Utah Jazz at Washington Wizards – 5:00 PM

Utah Jazz Washington Wizards
utahnba Vegas Total 199.0 washingtonnba Vegas Total 199.0
Vegas Sprd 1.0 Vegas Sprd -1.0
Team Proj. 99.0 Team Proj. 100.0
Team Pace 92.90 Team Pace 100.20
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Raul Neto Rodney Hood Gordon Hayward Derrick Favors Rudy Gobert Proj. Starter John Wall Brad Beal Otto Porter Jared Dudley Marcin Gortat
Opp. Season 17 26 28 10 11 Opp. Season 8 2 2 1 3
Last 3 Weeks 28 24 18 25 9 Last 3 Weeks 13 1 1 2 2

Utah Jazz

Record: 26-26 — Road: 9-16 — Last 10: 8-2

Welcome back, welcome back, welcome back! After what seemed like an eternity, the NBA All-Star break is finally over. We have a small three-game slate on Thursday night to wet our appetites for the 14-game main course slate on Friday. One important thing to note is that the trade deadline is today, so there could be a few players in this slate that are on the move.

This was originally going to be a two-game slate, but this will serve as a make-up game for the one that was cancelled earlier in the season. The Jazz have won eight of their last ten games and currently find themselves in eighth place in the Western Conference standings. They head to Washington to take on the Wizards in what should be a pace-up game for the Jazz. Utah is projected to 99 score points, which is 1.2 points above their season average.

The Wizards have not fared well defensively this season, ranking 20th or worse in all four of the defensive categories above. They play at a fast pace and they haven’t been particularly efficient against any of the five positions on the floor. Alec Burks has been targeting this game to return to the court, but we will consider him questionable until we get an update on his status. When Burks does return to the lineup, it will cut into the production of Gordon Hayward, Rodney Hood, and Trey Burke.

Elite Plays

Derrick Favors

Even though the Wizards are ranked in the top third in fantasy points allowed to power forwards, this is a matchup that we shouldn’t be scared of. Favors has been in great form recently, averaging 34.7 fantasy points in 34.4 minutes in his last five games. His price is still a bit too cheap across the industry and Jared Dudley may have a tough time defending him in the post.

FD — $7,400 — PF
DK — $7,000 — PF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 20.3 | Last Five Games: 20.5
Min/Game — Season: 32.4 | Last Five Games: 34.4
FP/Game — Season: 32.6 | Last Five Games: 34.7

Secondary Plays

Gordon Hayward

With the return of Derrick Favors to the lineup and the resurgence of Rodney Hood, we have seen a decline in Hayward’s usage and fantasy production over his last five games. He draws a terrific matchup tonight though, as the Wizards have really struggled to defend wing players this season. His price is a little high on FanDuel, but he’s very playable at $7,100 on DraftKings.

FD — $7,800 — SF
DK — $7,100 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 22.1 | Last Five Games: 20.8
Min/Game — Season: 36.1 | Last Five Games: 39.9
FP/Game — Season: 31.8 | Last Five Games: 29.9

Rudy Gobert

Gobert continues to fly under the radar in DFS. He typically gets a decent amount of attention from the touts across the industry, but ends up having a low ownership percentage each night. His matchup against Marcin Gortat is less than ideal, but Gobert doesn’t need a great matchup to be productive. He derives most of his fantasy points through rebounds and blocks.

FD — $7,400 — C
DK — $6,700 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 11.3 | Last Five Games: 12.1
Min/Game — Season: 33.2 | Last Five Games: 34.5
FP/Game — Season: 30.5 | Last Five Games: 33.8

Rodney Hood

Hood feels a little bit too expensive tonight. However, with only three games on the schedule, there aren’t many great plays at shooting guard. Hood’s usage has been up over his last five games and so has his production, averaging 27.9 fantasy points during that stretch. While the price is high, the matchup is in his favor, as the Wizards are ranked 26th against shooting guards.

FD — $6,000 — SG
DK — $6,300 — SG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 19.3 | Last Five Games: 21.9
Min/Game — Season: 31.4 | Last Five Games: 37.6
FP/Game — Season: 23.2 | Last Five Games: 27.9

Raul Neto

It sounds like the Jazz are “committed” to trading Trey Burke before the deadline. Their best offer that is currently on the table is for Ty Lawson. While I don’t necessarily love the move, it sounds like it could happen. If Burke does get traded, odds are that whoever get back won’t be cleared in time for tonight’s game. Neto could see minutes in the mid-30s, assuming he can stay out of foul trouble.

FD — $3,700 — PG
DK — $4,000 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 14.0 | Last Five Games: 14.2
Min/Game — Season: 20.5 | Last Five Games: 29.8
FP/Game — Season: 12.2 | Last Five Games: 17.7

Washington Wizards

Record: 23-28 — Home: 11-16 — Last 10: 3-7

The Wizards needed a break, after losing seven of their ten games before the All-Star game. They will look to get back on track against a very tough defensive team in the Jazz. Utah plays at the slowest pace of any team in the NBA and when you combine that with a stifling defense, they become an easy matchup to avoid. The Wizards are only projected to score 100 points, which is the third lowest team total on the board and 2.7 points lower than their season average. Before we move on, I should note that the Wizards play the first back-to-back-to-back series in the NBA this season.

The Jazz are one of the worst fantasy matchups in the entire NBA. On the season, they are ranked third in points allowed per game and second in fantasy points allowed per game. The Wizards have a low team total and would typically be an easy fade on a full slate. However, given the fact that there are only three games on the schedule, there are a couple of plays on my radar.

Elite Plays

NONE – The Jazz are ranked eighth or better in fantasy points allowed to each of the five positions on the floor.

Secondary Plays

Brad Beal

Beal went on a nice five-game stretch before the All-Star break, scoring at least 28 fantasy points in every game. His price has come up a bit, but it still feels like it is a few hundred dollars too cheap. After the layoff, he should be a safe bet to play 32+ minutes in a game that is expected to stay close throughout. Dollar for dollar, I slightly prefer him over Rodney Hood.

FD — $6,300 — SG
DK — $6,800 — SG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 21.5 | Last Five Games: 23.2
Min/Game — Season: 31.8 | Last Five Games: 29.9
FP/Game — Season: 27.9 | Last Five Games: 31.3

Otto Porter

Porter’s price has come way down, offering us a good opportunity to buy low on the versatile small forward. He had a stretch there when his minutes were down, but he has averaged 32.5 minutes over his last five games. It’s not a great strategy loading up on players against the Jazz, but Porter is a viable option at the very thin small forward position.

FD — $5,300 — SF
DK — $5,700 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 14.8 | Last Five Games: 13.6
Min/Game — Season: 31.1 | Last Five Games: 32.5
FP/Game — Season: 24.2 | Last Five Games: 24.1

Chicago Bulls at Cleveland Cavaliers – 8:00 PM

Chicago Bulls Cleveland Cavaliers
chicagonba Vegas Total 207.5 clevelandnba Vegas Total 207.5
Vegas Sprd 12.0 Vegas Sprd -12.0
Team Proj. 97.8 Team Proj. 109.8
Team Pace 98.60 Team Pace 95.20
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Derrick Rose E’Twaun Moore Mike Dunleavy Taj Gibson Pau Gasol Proj. Starter Kyrie Irving J.R. Smith LeBron James Kevin Love Tristan Thompson
Opp. Season 15 6 7 3 1 Opp. Season 28 17 24 16 27
Last 3 Weeks 12 22 13 5 4 Last 3 Weeks 18 25 19 17 26

Chicago Bulls

Record: 27-25 — Road: 11-15 — Last 10: 3-7

The Bulls are trending in the wrong direction. They have lost seven of their last ten games and will be without Jimmy Butler for the foreseeable future. There are rumors that they are aggressively shopping Pau Gasol and Taj Gibson, which would essentially be the waving of the white towel. The Bulls draw a difficult matchup against the Cavaliers in Cleveland. They are listed as 12-point underdogs with the lowest team total on the board at only 97.8 points.

Much like the Jazz and the Spurs, we often try to avoid targeting players against the Cavaliers. On the season, they are ranked seventh or better in all four of the defensive categories listed above. The saving grace here is that the Bulls are playing short-handed. They will be without Joakim Noah, Jimmy Butler, and Nikola Mirotic, which gives a minutes and/or usage boost to a number of different players.

Elite Plays

Derrick Rose

Rose is my top point guard target on the board tonight. His usage rate is going to go through the roof while Jimmy Butler is out and we have already seen evidence of this over his last five games. During that stretch, he is averaging 38.8 fantasy points with a turnover-adjusted usage rate of 30. Rose also draws the best matchup of the five starters, as the Cavaliers have been mediocre against point guards this season.

FD — $6,800 — PG
DK — $7,300 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 23.2 | Last Five Games: 30.0
Min/Game — Season: 32.2 | Last Five Games: 33.1
FP/Game — Season: 26.4 | Last Five Games: 38.8

E’Twaun Moore

Moore is a little too expensive on DraftKings, but is still an elite play on FanDuel. Over his last five games, he is averaging 25.2 fantasy points in 33.4 minutes per contest. His role in the offense will continue to grow with Jimmy Butler out and he has shown that he can provide peripheral statistics in addition to his scoring. The matchup against the Cavaliers isn’t great, but the value is still there.

FD — $4,300 — SG
DK — $5,400 — SG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 13.1 | Last Five Games: 15.4
Min/Game — Season: 18.6 | Last Five Games: 33.4
FP/Game — Season: 11.4 | Last Five Games: 25.2

Secondary Plays

Pau Gasol

As long as he doesn’t get traded before the deadline, Gasol will be an excellent fantasy option tonight against the Cavaliers. Cleveland has been tough on opposing bigs this season, but with all of the injuries to the Bulls, Gasol is expected to see a boost in both minutes AND usage. That’s a rare combination in daily fantasy. Look for the offense to run through Gasol, who is averaging 43.2 fantasy points over his last five games. Gasol may get overlooked tonight, making him an excellent tournament play.

FD — $9,000 — C
DK — $8,700 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 21.1 | Last Five Games: 22.2
Min/Game — Season: 31.9 | Last Five Games: 33.2
FP/Game — Season: 38.3 | Last Five Games: 43.2

Taj Gibson

Gibson hasn’t exactly had that breakout game that I’ve been expecting with Nikola Mirotic and Joakim Noah out, but he is still a reliable fantasy option. He should see minutes in the low to mid-30s tonight against the Cavaliers. The matchup is less than appealing, but he offers a high floor for a player in his price range.

FD — $5,100 — PF
DK — $5,300 — PF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 11.9 | Last Five Games: 13.5
Min/Game — Season: 26.5 | Last Five Games: 29.3
FP/Game — Season: 20.8 | Last Five Games: 21.6

Bobby Portis

If Pau Gasol and/or Taj Gibson get traded, Portis would become close to a must start tonight. Even if that doesn’t happen, Portis could be worth a look in a game that has the potential to get out of hand early. He has played well over his last five games, averaging 20.1 fantasy points in 23.9 minutes per contest.

FD — $3,900 — PF
DK — $4,400 — PF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 18.1 | Last Five Games: 17.2
Min/Game — Season: 16.2 | Last Five Games: 23.9
FP/Game — Season: 14.2 | Last Five Games: 20.1

Cleveland Cavaliers

Record: 38-14 — Home: 22-4 — Last 10: 8-2

The Cavaliers have won eight of their last ten games and are one of the few teams in recent memory that are first in their conference, yet still actively shopping one of their best players at the trade deadline. Cleveland has said that they would need a superstar in return for Kevin Love and it’s hard to see a blockbuster trade coming together before the deadline, but there are always talks behind closed doors that we don’t know about. The Cavaliers are 12-point favorites tonight against the Bulls at home.

Elite Plays

Kyrie Irving

There was a three-week stretch where Irving was just a little too cheap. After averaging 42.1 fantasy points over his last five games, his price is finally back to where it should be. I probably wouldn’t pay this price in a full slate, but he’s one of the top point guard options on the board tonight. The Bulls have been one of the worst teams at defending point guards all season, allowing the third most fantasy points to the position.

FD — $7,900 — PG
DK — $8,000 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 26.1 | Last Five Games: 26.6
Min/Game — Season: 29.8 | Last Five Games: 36.4
FP/Game — Season: 29.6 | Last Five Games: 42.1

Secondary Plays

LeBron James

James continues to play well, night in and night out. He doesn’t have many of those 60 fantasy point outings, but he offers a very high floor, especially against a Bulls’ team that is missing their best perimeter defender in Jimmy Butler. James is a borderline elite play in all league formats. The main problem is trying to find the value plays needed to squeeze him into your lineup.

FD — $10,300 — SF
DK — $9,800 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 27.5 | Last Five Games: 29.5
Min/Game — Season: 35.9 | Last Five Games: 36.3
FP/Game — Season: 44.5 | Last Five Games: 47.2

Kevin Love

Love is expected to be a full-go tonight, assuming of course that he doesn’t get traded. In his last five games where he has played at least 30 minutes, he has scored at least 35 fantasy points in each. His price is down thanks to his production over his last few games. The Cavaliers have the highest team total on the board tonight, so as long as the game stays competitive, there could be enough production for the Cavaliers’ studs to reach value.

FD — $7,100 — PF
DK — $7,400 — PF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 19.4 | Last Five Games: 18.9
Min/Game — Season: 32.1 | Last Five Games: 26.3
FP/Game — Season: 32.9 | Last Five Games: 24.5

J.R. Smith

Smith isn’t my favorite play tonight, but his minutes, usage, and production are all up over his last five games. Part of that has to do with Kevin Love limited minutes, but Smith should be a safe bet to play minutes in the low to mid-30s against a Bulls’ defense that is ranked 25th against shooting guards over the last three weeks of play.

FD — $5,300 — SG
DK — $5,500 — SG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 17.0 | Last Five Games: 19.0
Min/Game — Season: 30.5 | Last Five Games: 33.4
FP/Game — Season: 20.8 | Last Five Games: 25.3

San Antonio Spurs at Los Angeles Clippers – 10:30 PM

San Antonio Spurs Los Angeles Clippers
sanantonionba Vegas Total 207.5 laclippersnba Vegas Total 207.5
Vegas Sprd -3.0 Vegas Sprd 3.0
Team Proj. 105.3 Team Proj. 102.3
Team Pace 96.30 Team Pace 98.20
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Tony Parker Danny Green Kawhi Leonard LaMarcus Aldridge Tim Duncan Proj. Starter Chris Paul J.J. Redick Paul Pierce Luc Richard Mbah a Moute DeAndre Jordan
Opp. Season 4 10 11 7 22 Opp. Season 4 1 1 5 4
Last 3 Weeks 2 3 6 20 14 Last 3 Weeks 14 4 5 29 15

San Antonio Spurs

Record: 45-8 — Road: 17-8 — Last 10: 8-2

The Spurs have won eight of their last ten games and are 45-8 overall. They draw one of their toughest matchups to date tonight, as they head to Los Angeles to take on a red-hot Clippers’ team. We rarely see the Spurs listed as such small favorites, which should help solidify the starters’ minutes. The Spurs are projected to score 105.3 points, which is the second highest team total on the board.

The Clippers continue to climb up the defensive rankings. On the season, they are now ranked ninth or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game. Even though this doesn’t look like a great spot on paper, the fact that the Spurs’ starters should see a full complement of minutes more than outweighs the tough matchup. Tony Parker missed last Wednesday’s game against the Magic, but has had plenty of time to heal up. I will consider him probable for tonight’s game.

Elite Plays

Kawhi Leonard

I always love targeting Leonard in games where the Spurs aren’t huge favorites. Minutes are always the main concern with the Spurs’ starters and with a 3-point spread, we can expect them to play a full complement of minutes tonight. Leonard should see minutes in the mid-30s and he comes into this game in good form, averaging 38.5 fantasy points over his last five games.

FD — $7,700 — SF
DK — $7,500 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 21.4 | Last Five Games: 24.1
Min/Game — Season: 32.4 | Last Five Games: 32.5
FP/Game — Season: 36.0 | Last Five Games: 38.5

Tony Parker

Parker is one of my favorite value plays on the board tonight. Assuming he is cleared to play, it’s hard to pass up on the value that he provides. Hopefully, everyone will see his matchup against Chris Paul and immediately want to avoid Parker. However, Parker averaged 31.1 fantasy points against the Clippers last season and he had 27.7 fantasy points in their first meeting this year.

FD — $5,000 — PG
DK — $4,800 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 18.8 | Last Five Games: 15.1
Min/Game — Season: 26.7 | Last Five Games: 27.0
FP/Game — Season: 23.0 | Last Five Games: 17.1

Danny Green

Green is starting to round back into form. Over his last five games, he is averaging 24.4 fantasy points in 32.1 minutes per contest. I’m hesitant to put too much stock into the recent breakout, but his minutes should be secure with Manu Ginobili out for the foreseeable future. Value plays are tough to come by tonight and Green is one of the best values on the board.

FD — $4,500 — SG
DK — $4,700 — SG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 12.7 | Last Five Games: 13.6
Min/Game — Season: 25.7 | Last Five Games: 32.1
FP/Game — Season: 16.9 | Last Five Games: 24.4

Secondary Plays

LaMarcus Aldridge

Aldridge had his best five-game stretch of the season before the All-Star break, averaging 40.3 fantasy points per contest. While he should have a bigger role offensively moving forward, his usage is vastly different when Tim Duncan is out. In the 15 games that Duncan has missed, Aldridge has a 26.7 usage rate. It’s considerably lower when Duncan is in the lineup. Aldridge is in play tonight, but I slightly prefer Derrick Favors at a similar price point.

FD — $7,500 — PF
DK — $6,900 — PF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 21.7 | Last Five Games: 25.3
Min/Game — Season: 29.7 | Last Five Games: 32.0
FP/Game — Season: 30.6 | Last Five Games: 40.3

Tim Duncan

It’s going to take a three-game slate for me to roster Mr. Duncan. He is a little too expensive on FanDuel, but is in play tonight on DraftKings. He has only played one game in the last month of play, but should see minutes somewhere in the 20s tonight. I’d like to find a way to get up to one of the more expensive centers, but Duncan is the best play at the position under $6,000.

FD — $5,800 — C
DK — $5,000 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 14.4 | Last Five Games: 24.6
Min/Game — Season: 25.7 | Last Five Games: 18.3
FP/Game — Season: 25.2 | Last Five Games: 25.9

Los Angeles Clippers

Record: 35-18 — Home: 17-8 — Last 10: 7-3

The Clippers have played some great basketball over the last month of play. Despite all of the Blake Griffin drama and trade rumors, they continue to win basketball games. They are only listed as 3-point underdogs tonight against the Spurs in what should be a close game throughout. This is still a very difficult matchup though, as the Clippers’ team total is 2.5 points lower than their season average.

We have arguably the three best defensive teams in the NBA on the schedule tonight, which really makes it tough to find great fantasy options in such a small slate. On the season, the Spurs are ranked second or better in all four of the defensive categories listed above. The Clippers are still projected to score 102.3 points tonight, but I have a hard time listing any of their players as elite fantasy options.

Elite Plays

NONE – The Spurs have the best defense in the NBA. They are ranked fifth or better in fantasy points allowed to each of the five positions on the floor.

Secondary Plays

Chris Paul

This is a tough one. On the one hand, the Spurs have the best defense in the NBA. On the other hand, Paul is one of the most matchup-proof players in the NBA (he had 66.5 fantasy points against the Celtics last week). In his last five meetings against the Spurs, he has averaged just over 42 fantasy points per game. It’s tough to recommend him in cash games, but I will be starting a few GPP lineups with CP3.

FD — $9,900 — PG
DK — $9,000 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 24.5 | Last Five Games: 24.7
Min/Game — Season: 33.0 | Last Five Games: 38.5
FP/Game — Season: 39.9 | Last Five Games: 44.3

DeAndre Jordan

Jordan is finally starting to produce at the level we all expected when Blake Griffin first went down with his injury. In his last five games, Jordan is averaging 41.6 fantasy points in 38.6 minutes per contest. This game should be competitive throughout, which means Jordan should see 35+ minutes of action. The matchup isn’t great, but Jordan is like Rudy Gobert in that the largest portion of his fantasy production comes from rebounds and blocks.

FD — $8,600 — C
DK — $7,600 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 11.9 | Last Five Games: 13.7
Min/Game — Season: 33.9 | Last Five Games: 38.6
FP/Game — Season: 35.1 | Last Five Games: 41.6

About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious