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NBA Grind Down: Thursday, January 19th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2017-01-20 03:31:58

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.

Phoenix Suns at Cleveland Cavaliers – 7:00 PM ET

Phoenix Suns Cleveland Cavaliers
phoenixnba Vegas Total 218.0 clevelandnba Vegas Total 218.0
Vegas Spread 13.0 Vegas Spread -13.0
Team Total 102.5 Team Total 115.5
Pace +/- 0.4 Pace +/- 3.3
Proj. Starter Eric Bledsoe Devin Booker T.J. Warren Marquese Chriss Tyson Chandler Proj. Starter Kyrie Irving Iman Shumpert LeBron James Kevin Love Tristan Thompson
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 22 26 28 6 6 Adj. DvP 14 21 16 18 19
DRPM -1.76 -0.70 1.15 1.78 2.23 DRPM -0.73 -2.16 -1.03 -0.75 1.65

Phoenix Suns

When I first saw the spread of this game, I automatically thought that is was being played in Phoenix. The Suns were originally listed as 11.5-point underdogs, which seemed a bit low. Overnight, the line has moved all the way up to 13 points. From a matchup standpoint, this isn’t one that we need to automatically avoid. On the season, the Cavaliers are ranked 11th in points allowed per game and 14th in defensive efficiency. Their implied total is a bit lower than their season average, but there are a few intriguing plays from the Suns tonight.

The Cavaliers have been tough against opposing frontcourts, but they have struggled against point guards and wing players. Eric Bledsoe has scored at least 34 fantasy points in nine of his last ten games and his price hasn’t come up all that much. The Cavaliers have put Iman Shumpert on opposing point guards a bit lately, but I’m not sure they will be able to with Devin Booker at shooting guard. Assuming Bledsoe sees Kyrie Irving, we have to like his chances in that matchup. Booker has been on fire recently, scoring at least 39 fantasy points in three of his last four games. He doesn’t have as good of an individual matchup as Bledsoe, but he should see minutes in the mid to upper 30s. T.J. Warren stands out as a nice value play at small forward. His usage is down since coming back from injury, but he’s at least a secondary play in this small slate. Tyson Chandler is expected to return to the lineup tonight. He has been in good form recently and is too cheap on DraftKings at only $4,600.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Eric Bledsoe $8,000 $7,700 1.11 32.8 1.6 36.3 3.4 29.7% -2.9% 22 -1.76
Devin Booker $6,400 $6,200 0.82 34.1 6.0 28.0 6.8 27.8% 2.2% 26 -0.70
T.J. Warren $4,500 $4,000 0.77 29.0 -0.7 22.3 -5.8 20.5% -5.1% 28 1.15
Marquese Chriss $3,700 $3,200 0.73 17.9 2.3 13.0 0.3 19.0% -2.6% 6 1.78
Tyson Chandler $5,400 $4,600 0.85 27.9 6.6 23.6 8.5 10.9% 1.9% 6 2.23
P.J. Tucker $4,100 $3,800 0.62 27.4 0.3 17.1 3.9 11.2% -0.4% 28 N/A

Elite Plays – Eric Bledsoe, Devin Booker

Secondary Plays – T.J. Warren, Tyson Chandler (DK)

Cleveland Cavaliers

The Cavaliers have lost three of their last four games and now hold a slim lead over the Raptors for the best record in the Eastern Conference. Granted, all four of those games were on the road, but their recent form is at least slightly concerning. The good news is that they get to face the Suns at home in a get-right spot. On the season, Phoenix is ranked 29th in points allowed per game and 24th in defensive efficiency. The Cavaliers come into the game as 11.5-point favorites with an implied total of 115.5 points, which is the second highest in the slate and 6.6 points above their season average.

The entire Cavaliers’ team has been in bad form recently, but it’s a good spot for them to bounce back in DFS. A lot hinges on the availability of Kevin Love. He is dealing with a sore back and was limited in yesterday’s practice and this morning’s shoot-around. As we all know, when Love is out, we can basically lock in Kyrie Irving and LeBron James in all formats. Irving draws a dream matchup against a very beatable Suns’ frontcourt. The only issue that I have with Irving is his price tag. Basically, if Love plays, Irving becomes more of a GPP play and if he’s out, Irving is an elite play in all formats. I’m glad that the sites raised LeBron’s price a bit tonight or else he would be 80% owned in all formats. He is the top overall play in the slate, especially if Love is out. Kyle Korver could get plenty of open looks off the bench and he is extremely cheap on FanDuel at $3,800. Tristan Thompson is a viable punt play at center if you need the savings.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Kyrie Irving $8,400 $8,600 1.03 34.8 -2.9 35.9 -12.0 31.0% 4.2% 14 -0.73
Iman Shumpert $3,900 $3,800 0.59 24.3 2.8 14.4 6.5 14.2% 0.8% 21 -2.16
LeBron James $10,500 $10,800 1.27 37.0 -1.3 46.8 -11.1 33.4% -2.3% 16 -1.03
Kevin Love $8,300 $7,800 1.16 31.6 -6.4 36.8 -13.0 26.1% -1.9% 18 -0.75
Tristan Thompson $4,900 $4,100 0.79 28.9 -1.3 22.8 -1.5 10.5% 1.4% 19 1.65
Kyle Korver $3,800 $4,300 0.62 27.5 -1.6 17.1 -0.6 14.9% 0.1% 21 N/A

Elite Plays – LeBron James, Kyrie Irving (if Love is out)

Secondary Plays – Kyrie Irving (if Love is active), Kevin Love (if active), Tristan Thompson

Dallas Mavericks at Miami Heat – 7:30 PM ET

Dallas Mavericks Miami Heat
dallasnba Vegas Total 197.0 miaminba Vegas Total 197.0
Vegas Spread 1.5 Vegas Spread -1.5
Team Total 97.8 Team Total 99.3
Pace +/- -1.4 Pace +/- -5.4
Proj. Starter Deron Williams Seth Curry Wesley Matthews Harrison Barnes Dirk Nowitzki Proj. Starter Goran Dragic Rodney McGruder Dion Waiters Luke Babbitt Hassan Whiteside
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 15 15 8 15 12 Adj. DvP 2 11 4 11 11
DRPM -2.34 -1.00 -0.11 1.32 1.31 DRPM -1.56 -0.34 -0.06 -0.82 0.17

Dallas Mavericks

The Mavericks have won three games in a row and are only two and a half games out of the playoff picture in the Western Conference. They don’t have the best matchup on paper, but they come into the game as 1.5-point underdogs against the Heat. On the season, Miami is ranked 22nd in pace of play and ninth in points allowed per game. Despite the bad game environment, the Mavericks’ implied total is 2.1 points above their season average. This low total in this game isn’t all that appealing, but there are a number of viable fantasy options here.

The Mavericks have been playing a lot of small ball lately, but they may have to change their approach a bit tonight. I can’t imagine Dirk Nowitzki being able to keep Hassan Whiteside off the glass. If they play a bit bigger, someone’s minutes in the rotation are going to get squeezed. The odd man out could be Seth Curry, who will likely be a popular value play. This is all speculation on my part, but it’s something to keep in mind. Deron Williams is cheap on DraftKings ($5,800) and draws a decent matchup against Goran Dragic, but he hasn’t shown a high ceiling in the last few weeks. Wesley Matthews is certainly in play on DraftKings ($4,600), but is a secondary option on FanDuel. Harrison Barnes has been quiet since Dirk Nowitzki starting playing 30 minutes a night. I don’t hate his price on DraftKings, but I probably won’t have a lot of exposure to Barnes. Nowitzki should see around 30 minutes and he has scored at least 27 fantasy points in each of his last four games.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Deron Williams $6,400 $5,800 0.87 30.4 0.7 26.3 8.6 27.7% -0.8% 15 -2.34
Seth Curry $4,000 $3,900 0.69 26.4 2.3 18.2 4.2 19.5% -2.4% 15 -1.00
Wesley Matthews $5,400 $4,600 0.67 35.8 2.1 23.9 1.6 20.6% -2.6% 8 -0.11
Harrison Barnes $6,700 $6,000 0.84 35.9 -0.5 30.2 -2.0 25.4% -1.7% 15 1.32
Dirk Nowitzki $5,700 $5,900 0.95 24.9 3.5 23.8 5.5 25.6% -3.3% 12 1.31

Elite Plays – Wesley Matthews (DK), Dirk Nowitzki (FD)

Secondary Plays – Wesley Matthews (FD), Dirk Nowitzki (DK), Deron Williams (DK), Harrison Barnes (DK), Seth Curry

Miami Heat

The Heat have lost eight of their last ten games, but they did pick up a nice win against the Rockets on Tuesday night. The matchup against the Mavericks doesn’t look great on paper, but Dallas has picked up their pace in the last two weeks and are ranked 22nd in defensive efficiency on the season. The Heat come into the game with an implied total of 99.3 points, which is slightly higher than their season average.

Deron Williams is not a particularly good defender at this stage of his career and Goran Dragic should play 35+ minutes with Josh Richardson out. Dragic is still priced below $7,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings and is worth a look in all formats. Dion Waiters stands out as an elite play on FanDuel at $5,300. He has scored at least 23 fantasy points in three straight games. Tyler Johnson is always worth a look in tournaments. Even though he plays starter’s minutes, his ownership doesn’t ever reflect it. James Johnson is consistently seeing 30+ minutes a game and you have to like his upside against the short-handed frontcourt of the Mavericks. Speaking of upside, who is going to defend Hassan Whiteside tonight? Whiteside will have his knife, fork, and bib ready because he is going to feast on a Mavericks’ team that is ranked dead last in rebounding differential this season.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Goran Dragic $6,900 $6,900 0.94 34.3 2.2 32.3 -1.5 29.0% -2.0% 2 -1.56
Rodney McGruder $3,500 $3,000 0.50 25.8 -3.4 12.8 -1.9 12.0% -0.1% 11 -0.34
Dion Waiters $5,300 $5,700 0.78 29.6 2.6 23.2 2.7 26.4% -0.4% 4 -0.06
Luke Babbitt $3,500 $3,100 0.52 15.7 6.6 8.1 4.0 13.5% -1.9% 11 -0.82
Hassan Whiteside $8,700 $8,100 1.16 33.8 0.0 39.3 1.7 21.7% -0.8% 11 0.17
Tyler Johnson $6,100 $5,500 0.86 31.1 0.2 26.9 4.5 21.7% 0.7% 2 N/A
James Johnson $6,300 $5,900 0.93 25.5 7.4 23.8 8.1 22.5% -1.2% 11 N/A

Elite Plays – Goran Dragic, Dion Waiters (FD), James Johnson, Hassan Whiteside

Secondary Plays – Dion Waiters (DK)

Washington Wizards at New York Knicks – 8:00 PM ET

Washington Wizards New York Knicks
washingtonnba Vegas Total 217.0 newyorknba Vegas Total 217.0
Vegas Spread -2.0 Vegas Spread 2.0
Team Total 109.5 Team Total 107.5
Pace +/- 1.0 Pace +/- 0.4
Proj. Starter John Wall Bradley Beal Otto Porter Markieff Morris Marcin Gortat Proj. Starter Derrick Rose Ron Baker Mindaugas Kuzminskas Carmelo Anthony Kyle O’Quinn
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 7 29 5 26 27 Adj. DvP 3 17 15 23 5
DRPM -2.26 0.50 -0.05 -1.52 0.95 DRPM -0.22 -0.71 1.33 1.10 1.46

Washington Wizards

The Wizards have won seven of their last ten games and have basically swapped places in the Eastern Conference standings with the Knicks. As little as a month ago, the Knicks were a top six team in the East, while the Wizards were a few games out of the playoff picture. Washington comes into tonight’s game as 2-point favorites with an implied total of 109.5 points, which is the third highest in the slate and 3.7 points above their season average. The Knicks are always a great matchup for fantasy production, as they are ranked 25th in both defensive efficiency and points allowed per game.

John Wall is expensive across the industry, but he is a strong play against Derrick Rose, who has a DRPM of -2.26. With Courtney Lee now coming off the bench, the Knicks have no choice but to put Rose on Wall. He is an elite play in all formats, assuming there is enough value to fit him into your lineups. Bradley Beal struggled in last night’s win against the Grizzlies, but draws a tremendous matchup against Ron Baker. Beal will have a size and speed advantage and has the upside of 30 actual points. Otto Porter is always on my radar when he is priced at $6,000 and below. Markieff Morris is playing his best and most consistent basketball of the season. He has scored at least 31 fantasy points in five of his last six games. It doesn’t feel great paying $6,100 for Morris, but he is a top point-per-dollar play in this small slate. Marcin Gortat minutes are down recently, but that had to do with foul trouble and blowouts more than anything else. He should see minutes in the mid-30s tonight against a Knicks’ frontcourt that is missing Kristaps Porzingis and Joakim Noah. I plan to have a ton of exposure to the Wizards’ starting five tonight.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
John Wall $10,200 $9,600 1.23 36.2 -4.0 44.6 -3.1 34.5% 0.7% 7 -2.26
Bradley Beal $7,200 $7,000 0.93 34.2 -3.3 31.9 5.7 26.6% 2.7% 29 0.50
Otto Porter $6,000 $5,900 0.83 33.8 -1.4 28.0 -2.0 15.4% 1.1% 5 -0.05
Markieff Morris $6,100 $6,100 0.80 31.4 2.6 25.1 9.9 19.9% -0.5% 26 -1.52
Marcin Gortat $5,800 $5,800 0.83 35.4 -8.2 29.4 -8.1 14.1% 1.9% 27 0.95
Kelly Oubre $3,700 $3,500 0.63 19.3 3.4 12.3 2.4 14.4% -1.2% 5 N/A

Elite Plays – John Wall, Bradley Beal, Otto Porter, Markieff Morris (FD), Marcin Gortat (FD)

Secondary Plays – Markieff Morris (DK), Marcin Gortat (DK)

New York Knicks

The Knicks picked up a nice win in Boston last night and will look to make it two in a row. Tonight they host the visiting Wizards in what should be a close, high scoring game. This is one of my favorite games to stack in the slate and I plan to have a lot of exposure to both sides. The Wizards are ranked 17th or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential this season. Despite missing two of their starters, the Knicks are still projected to score 107.5 points, which is the fourth highest in the slate and 2.3 points above their season average.

If we run the CourtIQ tool with Joakim Noah and Kristaps Porzingis off the floor, we see that Derrick Rose has a usage rate of 28.8% and Carmelo Anthony has a usage rate of 35.5%. We can expect the offense to run through Rose and Anthony and you can make the case for both as elite plays. Point guard is always the deepest position in DFS, so I see Anthony as more of a building block than Rose tonight. With that said, Rose stands out as an elite tournament play. Mindaugas Kuzminskas has scored 26 fantasy points in back-to-back games and stands out as an elite value play in all formats. He should see 30+ minutes tonight with Kristaps Porzingis out. Kyle O’Quinn trolled 70% of the DFS community last night and people will be scared to go back to him tonight. I see this as a great bounce-back spot, but I’m not a huge fan of his price point. I will likely have a lot of O’Quinn in tournaments and look elsewhere in cash games. For whatever reason, Marshall Plumlee saw fourth quarter playing time over both O’Quinn and Willy Hernangomez last night. While his minutes may be capped, Hernangomez provides nice upside at a near-minimum salary.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Derrick Rose $6,200 $6,400 0.89 31.9 0.0 28.5 -1.4 28.1% -0.3% 3 -0.22
Ron Baker $3,700 $3,600 0.80 10.8 1.7 8.6 2.7 19.4% -2.0% 17 -0.71
Mindaugas Kuzminskas $3,900 $4,500 0.76 13.0 17.2 9.9 12.7 19.1% -1.9% 15 1.33
Carmelo Anthony $7,700 $7,900 1.06 33.2 -2.0 35.1 -0.3 29.1% -0.3% 23 1.10
Kyle O’Quinn $4,900 $4,800 1.13 15.4 -0.8 17.5 5.3 18.9% 8.4% 5 1.46
Willy Hernangomez $3,600 $3,200 0.91 13.2 0.6 12.1 -1.3 18.4% 0.6% 5 N/A

Elite Plays – Carmelo Anthony, Mindaugas Kuzminskas, Derrick Rose (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Derrick Rose (Cash), Kyle O’Quinn (GPP), Willy Hernangomez

Denver Nuggets at San Antonio Spurs – 8:30 PM ET

Denver Nuggets San Antonio Spurs
denvernba Vegas Total 222.0 sanantonionba Vegas Total 222.0
Vegas Spread 12.0 Vegas Spread -12.0
Team Total 105.0 Team Total 117.0
Pace +/- -2.7 Pace +/- 2.2
Proj. Starter Emmanuel Mudiay Will Barton Danilo Gallinari Kenneth Faried Nikola Jokic Proj. Starter Tony Parker Danny Green Kawhi Leonard LaMarcus Aldridge Pau Gasol
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 1 23 3 3 1 Adj. DvP 29 27 9 19 22
DRPM -1.25 0.70 0.99 0.96 2.03 DRPM -2.38 -0.41 -0.71 -0.66 1.41

Denver Nuggets

The Nuggets have won three games in a row and would narrowly squeeze into the playoffs if the regular season ended today. I’m a fan of Damian Lillard and the Blazers, but how great would it be to see Nikola Jokic on the big stage against the Warriors in the first round of the playoffs? Denver draws one of the worst possible matchups tonight, as they square off against the Spurs in San Antonio. On the season, the Spurs are ranked second in points allowed per game and fourth in defensive efficiency. The Spurs haven’t been as dominant at home this season, but I’m a little worried about a blowout here, as the spread is currently set at 12 points.

Emmanuel Mudiay has scored at least 26 fantasy points in each of his last three games and, in theory, should see a minutes boost with Gary Harris out. I hope that his ownership reaches the 20% mark, as I see him as an easy fade. Not only are the Spurs ranked first against point guards, but Mudiay averages nearly ten fantasy points less per game when he is playing on the road. I’d rather take a shot on Jameer Nelson coming off the bench. Will Barton should draw another start at shooting guard and is the one Nuggets’ player that I feel comfortable using in all formats. With Harris and Wilson Chandler out, he is a safe bet to play 30+ minutes, even in a blowout. Danilo Gallinari is questionable heading into this game and we likely won’t know his status until after lineups lock. For now, he can be avoided in all formats. With Chandler and Darrell Arthur out, we should expect Kenneth Faried to see big minutes again. However, he is a hustle player that scores his fantasy points on dunks, rebounds, blocks, and steals. Tonight’s matchup against the Spurs is a lot different than his last two matchups against the Lakers and Magic. Faried is a deep GPP target at best. I’m not sure what to do with Nikola Jokic tonight. I wish that he would stay $8,000 forever, but he is $9,400 on FanDuel and $8,000 on DraftKings. He draws an awful matchup against the Spurs and there is a decent chance that this game is over by the start of the fourth quarter. I’m going to have a really hard time using him in a cash game setting tonight, even though my love for Jokic runs deep.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Emmanuel Mudiay $5,000 $4,700 0.79 29.0 -0.2 22.9 8.7 24.2% -3.1% 1 -1.25
Will Barton $5,300 $6,100 0.85 28.7 -1.0 24.5 3.0 21.7% 0.1% 23 0.70
Danilo Gallinari $5,900 $5,400 0.78 34.3 2.2 26.6 -0.5 19.2% -2.7% 3 0.99
Kenneth Faried $5,600 $5,200 1.04 22.1 4.4 22.9 8.1 17.2% 1.4% 3 0.96
Nikola Jokic $9,400 $8,700 1.22 25.3 8.0 30.8 19.9 22.8% 6.1% 1 2.03
Jameer Nelson $3,700 $3,500 0.70 24.7 0.7 17.4 1.7 20.3% -3.1% 1 N/A

Elite Plays – Will Barton

Secondary Plays – Nikola Jokic, Kenneth Faried, Jameer Nelson

San Antonio Spurs

I can’t remember the exact number, but the Spurs were something like 38-0 at home at one point last season. Their home-court advantage hasn’t been nearly as strong this season at 15-5. With that said, they come into tonight’s game against the Nuggets as 12-point favorites in a game that could easily turn into a blowout. The Nuggets have not played well on the road and they could potentially be very short handed tonight. On paper, this is one of the most favorable matchups in DFS. The Nuggets are ranked 28th in points allowed per game and 29th in defensive efficiency. I’m a little worried about a blowout here, but the Spurs have the highest implied total in the slate at 117 points.

Tony Parker is averaging over 20 fantasy points in his last three games and draws a dream matchup against the Nuggets, who are ranked 29th against point guards this season. I don’t expect Parker to play more than 25-27 minutes, but he could certainly pay off his salary in that amount of time. Danny Green has been frustrating all season, but he should see 25-28 minutes against a Nuggets’ defense that is ranked 27th against shooting guards. He is a viable punt at shooting guard in tournaments. Kawhi Leonard price is all the way up to $9,400 on FanDuel and $9,000 on DraftKings. I love the spot for him, but am always a little hesitant to pay a premium for a player in a potential blowout. Dollar for dollar, I prefer Carmelo Anthony over Leonard. LaMarcus Aldridge is in play no DraftKings at a price of only $6,700. He draws a nice matchup against Kenneth Faried. Pau Gasol is also underpriced on DraftKings at $5,100, although I don’t love his matchup against Nikola Jokic.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Tony Parker $4,700 $5,000 0.79 25.8 1.2 20.5 0.4 24.6% 0.3% 29 -2.38
Danny Green $3,600 $3,600 0.62 25.9 0.7 16.0 -1.1 13.1% -0.9% 27 -0.41
Kawhi Leonard $9,400 $9,000 1.19 33.2 -0.9 39.5 6.2 29.2% 2.1% 9 -0.71
LaMarcus Aldridge $7,800 $6,700 0.96 32.3 -1.1 31.2 -3.8 23.5% 0.1% 19 -0.66
Pau Gasol $6,100 $5,100 1.03 26.4 -2.9 27.1 -4.4 20.8% -3.8% 22 1.41
Patty Mills $3,600 $3,200 0.82 21.9 -3.8 17.9 -3.7 21.9% 3.0% 29 N/A

Elite Plays – Tony Parker (FD), LaMarcus Aldridge (DK)

Secondary Plays – Tony Parker (DK), Danny Green (GPP), Kawhi Leonard, LaMarcus Aldridge (FD), Pau Gasol (DK)

Minnesota Timberwolves at Los Angeles Clippers – 10:30 PM ET

Minnesota Timberwolves Los Angeles Clippers
minnesotanba Vegas Total 204.5 laclippersnba Vegas Total 204.5
Vegas Spread 1.5 Vegas Spread -1.5
Team Total 101.5 Team Total 103.0
Pace +/- -0.1 Pace +/- -1.9
Proj. Starter Ricky Rubio Zach LaVine Andrew Wiggins Gorgui Dieng Karl-Anthony Towns Proj. Starter Austin Rivers J.J. Redick Wesley Johnson Luc Richard Mbah a Moute DeAndre Jordan
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 5 4 25 10 16 Adj. DvP 11 3 6 4 17
DRPM -2.23 -1.36 1.98 2.97 2.66 DRPM 1.51 -3.19 -2.25 2.93 -0.90

Minnesota Timberwolves

The Wolves have won four of their last ten games, but still have one of the worst records in the NBA. They do happen to catch the Clippers at a good time though, as Blake Griffin and Chris Paul are both on the shelf. The Wolves come into the game as 1.5-point underdogs with an implied total of 101.5 points. The Clippers have been tough defensively this season, but we can’t really rely on their season averages given the fact that they will be without two of their starters tonight. The one plus about this game is that we don’t have to worry about a potential blowout. Two of the five games on the schedule tonight have spreads of at least 12 points.

Ricky Rubio is averaging 38 fantasy points per game in his last three and Austin Rivers does have a DRPM of -2.23 this season. Rubio probably won’t be on many people’s radar tonight, which makes him an intriguing GPP target. Zach LaVine has not played well over the last couple of weeks and his price hasn’t come down enough to make him a viable option. Andrew Wiggins will likely see a lot of Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, who is an excellent on ball defender. At small forward, I prefer the likes of LeBron James, Carmelo Anthony, and Mindaugas Kuzminskas. I’m never on the right side of Gorgui Dieng and will not be using him tonight, so feel free to target him with confidence. Karl-Anthony Towns has scored at least 54 fantasy points in three of his last five games and is my favorite target on the Wolves tonight. The issue isn’t so much the matchup, it’s the price.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Ricky Rubio $6,700 $6,600 0.83 32.0 5.0 26.5 12.7 18.4% 5.7% 5 -2.23
Zach LaVine $6,200 $6,000 0.77 37.2 -2.9 28.8 -6.6 22.8% -5.7% 4 -1.36
Andrew Wiggins $6,800 $6,300 0.82 36.9 0.6 30.1 -3.6 27.3% -4.5% 25 1.98
Gorgui Dieng $5,700 $5,300 0.79 32.6 -1.6 25.7 1.4 15.4% 3.7% 10 2.97
Karl-Anthony Towns $10,100 $9,900 1.17 35.9 3.2 42.2 3.4 27.1% -1.6% 16 2.66

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Ricky Rubio (GPP), Karl-Anthony Towns

Los Angeles Clippers

The Clippers got some bad news about Chris Paul. He had to have surgery on his thumb and is expected to miss six to eight weeks. The Clippers just haven’t been able to stay healthy over the years and if they are unable to make some noise in the playoffs this season, they will look back and be disappointed with their run together. Tonight they draw a decent matchup against the Wolves, who are ranked 13th in points allowed per game. I’m not overly concerned about the Clippers’ low implied total because they are missing their best two offensive players.

With Chris Paul out, Austin Rivers and Raymond Felton will both become vital players for the Clippers. They should both see 30+ minutes tonight and they should both have high usage rates in the offense. I have the two projected fairly close, so I would give the edge to whichever one is cheaper on the site that you are playing on. Jamal Crawford becomes close to a must-play tonight, as he should see around 30 minutes off the bench. J.J. Redick is also in play, but he’s my fourth favorite guard from the Clippers. DeAndre Jordan is the only other play on my radar in this one, although I typically like to use him when Paul is in the lineup. If you are paying up at center, I’d rather target Hassan Whiteside.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Austin Rivers $5,600 $5,200 0.67 26.3 6.4 17.7 5.5 19.8% -0.1% 11 1.51
J.J. Redick $5,200 $5,300 0.73 27.7 3.3 20.3 7.0 21.6% -0.3% 3 -3.19
Wesley Johnson $3,500 $3,000 0.71 13.6 2.2 9.7 2.2 12.6% -4.2% 6 -2.25
Luc Richard Mbah a Moute $3,500 $3,000 0.53 23.4 -2.1 12.4 -1.6 11.4% 2.2% 4 2.93
DeAndre Jordan $8,200 $7,500 1.05 31.9 0.6 33.5 17.2 14.4% 1.1% 17 -0.90
Jamal Crawford $3,500 $4,200 0.66 26.3 -3.2 17.3 -9.4 23.2% -3.4% 3 N/A

Elite Plays – Austin Rivers, Raymond Felton, Jamal Crawford

Secondary Plays – J.J. Redick, DeAndre Jordan

About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious