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NBA Grind Down: Thursday, January 7th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-01-09 05:19:35

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

Every game is also broken down by our NBA experts, providing an overview of the game and a selection of players to consider from each contest.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

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Atlanta Hawks at Philadelphia 76ers – 7:00 PM

Atlanta Hawks Philadelphia 76ers
atlantanba Vegas Total 206.0 philadelphianba Vegas Total 206.0
Vegas Sprd -9.5 Vegas Sprd 9.5
Team Proj. 107.8 Team Proj. 98.3
Team Pace 98.60 Team Pace 99.90
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Jeff Teague Kyle Korver Kent Bazemore Paul Millsap Al Horford Proj. Starter Ishmael Smith Nik Stauskas Jerami Grant Nerlens Noel Jahlil Okafor
Opp. Season 19 16 29 29 29 Opp. Season 15 20 18 12 24
Opp. Last 7 20 26 30 14 28 Opp. Last 7 12 24 13 8 24

Atlanta Hawks

Record: 21-15 — Road: 9-8 — Last 10: 7-3

It’s my first full day of watching my two-month old baby boy, so if there are any mistakes or typos, bear with me. Luckily it’s only a four-game slate, so I couldn’t possibly make too many mistakes, right? The Hawks head to Philadelphia for their free punch on the WIN card. The Hawks are listed as 9.5-point favorites with their team total set at 107.8 points. Not only is that the second highest total on the board, but it is also six points higher than their average points per game.

Get ready to be surprised! Despite the thought that they are one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA, oh wait, they still are. Scratch the surprise. The Sixers are ranked 22nd or worse in all four of the defensive categories listed above. We can safely give a sizable boost to the Hawks as a whole, although we always have to factor in a potential blowout when the Sixers are on the schedule.

Elite Plays

Paul Millsap

As a Jazz fan, I miss Millsap being in Utah. While I’m certainly a fan of Rudy Gobert, Derrick Favors, and fantasy All-Star Jeff Withey, I was a bigger fan of Millsap. He does everything on the floor well – he can score, rebound, pass, and defend. In theory, he should have a big game tonight against the Sixers, who are one of the worst rebounding teams in the NBA. The Sixers also ranked dead opponent blocked shots per game at 6.6.

FD — $8,500 — PF
DK — $8,300 — PF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 20.4 | Last Five Games: 23.3
Min/Game — Season: 33.5 | Last Five Games: 35.5
FP/Game — Season: 37.7 | Last Five Games: 43.2

Al Horford

Horford is a little expensive on FanDuel, but a borderline elite play on DraftKings. We have to like him for the same reasons that we like Paul Millsap. The Sixers don’t rebound the ball well and they get their shots blocked more often than any other team in the league. Horford provides nice upside at $6,600 and he has been playing well recently, averaging 36.4 fantasy (WAHHHHH) points in his (WAHHHH) last five (WAHHHH) games. Sorry, my baby’s cries entered my train of thought on that one.

FD — $7,400 — C
DK — $6,600 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 18.7 | Last Five Games: 18.2
Min/Game — Season: 31.4 | Last Five Games: 32.0
FP/Game — Season: 31.3 | Last Five Games: 36.4

Kent Bazemore

Three Hawks as elite plays? Noto must have fallen off his rocker. While I am technically in a chair that rocks right now, no I have not fallen off. We have a short slate tonight and the Hawks are playing the Sixers. If this game stays close, we could see 3-4 Hawks players reach and exceed value. Bazemore is a little expensive, but has played well over his last five games, averaging 27.2 fantasy points.

FD — $5,700 — SG
DK — $6,100 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 16.0 | Last Five Games: 16.0
Min/Game — Season: 28.7 | Last Five Games: 30.9
FP/Game — Season: 24.2 | Last Five Games: 27.2

Secondary Plays

Jeff Teague

Teague was benched the other night in the fourth quarter. He had an off night and Dennis Schroder was playing much better. That’s not a concern moving forward, but it does help explain why Teague is only seeing 29.3 minutes per game this season. He is a viable play tonight at his discounted price point, but he is by no means a must play.

FD — $6,200 — PG
DK — $6,400 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 22.2 | Last Five Games: 21.4
Min/Game — Season: 29.3 | Last Five Games: 29.4
FP/Game — Season: 27.6 | Last Five Games: 25.1

Thabo Sefolosha

When it comes to value plays on the Hawks, we basically have Sefolosha and Kyle Korver. This is certainly the type of game where Korver could get going, but I’d rather take a chance on Sefolosha, who has been in slightly better form. This is a game where he could rack up a few blocks and/or steals.

FD — $4,000 — SF
DK — $3,900 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 10.6 | Last Five Games: 9.1
Min/Game — Season: 24.0 | Last Five Games: 24.0
FP/Game — Season: 17.1 | Last Five Games: 15.7

Philadelphia 76ers

Record: 4-33 — Home: 2-12 — Last 10: 3-7

The Sixers have won three of their last ten games. That has been by far their best ten-game stretch of the season. They are listed as 9.5-point underdogs tonight at home against the Hawks. This is not a great matchup on paper, but the Sixers are projected to score 98.3 points, which is 5.3 points higher than their average points per game.

The Hawks have been a mediocre defensive team this season, but they one area where teams have really taken advantage of Atlanta is on the glass. They are ranked dead last in rebounding differential and -4.8 per game. That is a glaring statistic and one that shouldn’t get overlooked tonight and moving forward.

Elite Plays

Ishmael Smith

After Smith had those two big games, his price skyrocketed across the industry. Luckily, it has come back down a bit and he is now priced at $6,100 on FanDuel and $6,900 on DraftKings. Smith has averaged 32.4 fantasy points per game in his last five outings and he managed to do that in an average of just 28.7 minutes. I’m all about that Ish again tonight.

FD — $6,100 — PG
DK — $6,900 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 20.7 | Last Five Games: 27.7
Min/Game — Season: 24.0 | Last Five Games: 28.7
FP/Game — Season: 23.9 | Last Five Games: 32.4

Secondary Plays

Nerlens Noel

Noel has seen a nice boost in production since the Sixers traded for Ish Smith. These two have a great chemistry together and it has really shown. Noel has also benefitted from Jahlil Okafor coming off the bench. Even though Okafor was back in the starting lineup the other night, Noel still had 26 fantasy points. Against a Hawks’ team that does not rebound well, I’m looking for a double-double from Noel tonight.

FD — $6,300 — PF
DK — $6,700 — PF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 14.4 | Last Five Games: 16.4
Min/Game — Season: 29.2 | Last Five Games: 27.5
FP/Game — Season: 25.5 | Last Five Games: 34.4

Nik Stauskas

Is Stauskas a must play tonight? Absolutely not. However, on a short slate, we are typically scraping the bottom of the bargain bin barrel looking for value. He provides that at shooting guard. He is back in the starting lineup for the Sixers and he should see close to 30 minutes tonight against the Hawks. That’s not bad for a scorer that is priced near the bare-minimum.

FD — $3,700 — SG
DK — $3,500 — SG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 13.9 | Last Five Games: 12.7
Min/Game — Season: 23.2 | Last Five Games: 26.2
FP/Game — Season: 13.2 | Last Five Games: 13.7

Utah Jazz at Houston Rockets – 8:00 PM

Utah Jazz Houston Rockets
utahnba Vegas Total 198.0 houstonnba Vegas Total 198.0
Vegas Sprd 9.0 Vegas Sprd -9.0
Team Proj. 94.5 Team Proj. 103.5
Team Pace 93.60 Team Pace 99.60
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Raul Neto Rodney Hood Gordon Hayward Trey Lyles Jeff Withey Proj. Starter Patrick Beverley James Harden Trevor Ariza Clint Capela Dwight Howard
Opp. Season 14 22 28 30 12 Opp. Season 11 3 7 4 5
Opp. Last 7 4 21 10 30 6 Opp. Last 7 9 19 1 10 17

Utah Jazz

Record: 15-19 — Road: 5-11 — Last 10: 5-5

The Jazz are coming off of another lopsided loss against the Spurs in San Antonio. Since the dawn of mankind, the Jazz have played more like the Sparkzz (old WNBA team) when they have faced the Spurs. Tonight they travel to Houston to take on the Rockets. Even though this will be a pace-up game for the Jazz, they still have the lowest team total on the board at 94.5 points.

The Rockets are not good defensively. On the season, they are ranked 22nd or worse in all four of the defensive categories listed above. Even though the Jazz have a low team total, that has more to do with their injuries – Derrick Favors, Alec Burks, and Rudy Gobert – than it does their matchup. We can give the Jazz a sizable boost as a whole tonight in Houston. UPDATE: Rudy Gobert has been upgraded to questionable for tonight’s game.

Elite Plays

Rodney Hood

It’s all good in the Hood now. Over his last five games, Rodney has averaged 30.9 fantasy points in 33.9 minutes per contest. Included in that five-game stretch was a game against the Rockets where he put up 35 fantasy points. The Rockets have struggled against shooting guards all season long and we have seen a major usage boost for Hood ever since Alec Burks went down with his injury.

FD — $5,600 — SG
DK — $5,800 — SG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 18.2 | Last Five Games: 22.1
Min/Game — Season: 30.5 | Last Five Games: 33.9
FP/Game — Season: 21.9 | Last Five Games: 30.9

Jeff Withey

It’s taken me a long time, but I’m finally on the Withey bandwagon. Once I realized that he went to Kansas (where one of the all-time Jazz greats Greg Ostertag played) I knew that his play wasn’t a fluke. Over his last five games, Withey is averaging 30.5 fantasy points in 30.9 minutes per contest. He had a solid 32 fantasy point outing against the Rockets just two games ago.

FD — $4,700 — C
DK — $5,100 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 11.9 | Last Five Games: 14.2
Min/Game — Season: 15.3 | Last Five Games: 30.9
FP/Game — Season: 13.6 | Last Five Games: 30.5

Secondary Plays

Gordon Hayward

It’s funny, every kid in the state of Utah has “The Hayward.” Any guesses on what that means? Nope, it’s not his jersey, shoes, or basketball card, it’s the hair. Unfortunately, the Hayward hair style gets in the way of my backwards baseball cap, so I have yet to ask for it when I get my haircut. Anyway, back to basketball. Hayward will continue to be the focal point offensively for the Jazz. He is a borderline elite play tonight at small forward.

FD — $7,600 — SF
DK — $7,400 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 21.1 | Last Five Games: 21.1
Min/Game — Season: 35.4 | Last Five Games: 37.0
FP/Game — Season: 30.1 | Last Five Games: 33.9

Trey Burke

Burke is one of those players that runs hot and cold. He is in the midst of a hot streak right now, as he has averaged 25.4 fantasy points per game in his last five. What is more important is that he has averaged 30.4 minutes during that stretch. He makes for a nice contrarian value tonight in tournaments.

FD — $4,900 — PG
DK — $4,900 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 21.5 | Last Five Games: 24.1
Min/Game — Season: 24.2 | Last Five Games: 30.4
FP/Game — Season: 18.9 | Last Five Games: 25.4

Houston Rockets

Record: 17-19 — Home: 10-9 — Last 10: 5-5

The Rockets have won five of their last ten games, but are still two games below .500 for the season. They are listed as 9-point favorites tonight against the Jazz, who are playing in the second half of a back-to-back. The Rockets are projected to score 103.8 points tonight, which is slightly below their average points per game.

The Jazz have been stout defensively this season. Most of that has to do with their slow pace of play. They are ranked fifth in points allowed per game and second in fantasy points allowed per game. Vegas doesn’t seem to mind the matchup though, as the Rockets are still projected to score well over 100 points tonight. The key injury to monitor on the Rockets tonight is Ty Lawson. If he is unable to go, give a nice boost to Patrick Beverley.

Elite Plays

James Harden

Before I looked at any of the salaries today, I had already made up my mind that I was going to play Jimmy Butler over Harden. However, once I saw that Harden was under $10,000 and Butler was well over $8,000, I changed my tune. I now like Harden slightly more than Butler. Harden’s production has been down recently, but he is still the clear number one option offensively.

FD — $9,900 — SG
DK — $9,600 — SG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 27.4 | Last Five Games: 25.5
Min/Game — Season: 37.9 | Last Five Games: 35.9
FP/Game — Season: 45.3 | Last Five Games: 38.5

Secondary Plays

Dwight Howard

Howard is a little too expensive on FanDuel, but is a borderline elite play tonight on DraftKings. Now that his minutes restriction has been lifted, we are finally starting to see him put up some stat lines of vintage-Dwight. Instead of referring to himself as Superman, maybe he should become Vintage Dwight – the superhero that plays up to expectations. Howard has averaged 39.2 fantasy points per game in his last five and the Jazz are missing both Derrick Favors and Rudy Gobert.

FD — $8,000 — C
DK — $7,100 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 14.3 | Last Five Games: 15.1
Min/Game — Season: 32.7 | Last Five Games: 36.5
FP/Game — Season: 33.0 | Last Five Games: 39.2

Boston Celtics at Chicago Bulls – 8:00 PM

Boston Celtics Chicago Bulls
bostonnba Vegas Total 203.0 chicagonba Vegas Total 203.0
Vegas Sprd 5.5 Vegas Sprd -5.5
Team Proj. 98.8 Team Proj. 104.3
Team Pace 100.70 Team Pace 98.90
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Isaiah Thomas Evan Turner Jae Crowder Amir Johnson Kelly Olynyk Proj. Starter Derrick Rose Jimmy Butler Nikola Mirotic Taj Gibson Pau Gasol
Opp. Season 26 7 21 11 23 Opp. Season 1 8 22 23 21
Opp. Last 7 28 11 24 6 12 Opp. Last 7 3 2 19 24 22

Boston Celtics

Record: 19-16 — Road: 10-6 — Last 10: 5-5

The Celtics have lost five of their last ten games, but are still three games above .500 for the season. Tonight they head to Chicago to take on the Bulls in what should be a very fast-paced game. Both of these teams play above the league average in terms of pace. The Celtics are only projected to score 98.8 points tonight though, which is four points lower than their average points per game.

Even though the Bulls play at a quick pace, they are still very stout defensively. On the season, they are ranked 12th or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. Avery Bradley remains out for the Celtics. He is targeting Sunday for his return to the lineup. Evan Turner is expected to draw another start in his place.

Elite Plays

Evan Turner

Going back to his days in Philadelphia, Turner has always been a player that can rack up fantasy points in a hurry. He will have a 4-5 minute stretch where he scored double-digit fantasy points. Unfortunately, he will also have those 4-5 minutes stretches where he isn’t even involved. He comes into tonight’s game in good form though, averaging 26.8 fantasy points in his last five games.

FD — $5,700 — SF
DK — $5,800 — SG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 16.4 | Last Five Games: 18.4
Min/Game — Season: 27.0 | Last Five Games: 30.9
FP/Game — Season: 21.9 | Last Five Games: 26.8

Kelly Olynyk

It looks like the Celtics are going to give Olynyk the chance to win over the starting center gig in Boston. He has not played particularly well in the last two games, but has played at least 29 minutes in each. He is by far the top value play at center tonight.

FD — $4,300 — C
DK — $5,000 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 17.6 | Last Five Games: 15.1
Min/Game — Season: 20.0 | Last Five Games: 22.5
FP/Game — Season: 18.6 | Last Five Games: 18.7

Secondary Plays

Isaiah Thomas

Thomas always seems to fly under the radar. With Avery Bradley out, his minutes have jumped back up into the 34-35 range rather than the 30-32 minute range. He is a nice play tonight against the Bulls, who have allowed the fifth most fantasy points to point guards this season. He is a borderline elite play in all league formats.

FD — $8,100 — PG
DK — $7,800 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 25.3 | Last Five Games: 26.0
Min/Game — Season: 32.5 | Last Five Games: 33.6
FP/Game — Season: 34.5 | Last Five Games: 34.0

Jae Crowder

Crowder would be listed as an elite play tonight if it weren’t for his elevated price tag. He has been incredibly productive over the last few weeks, but he is now well over $6,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings. I don’t mind targeting Crowder tonight if he is one of the last players that make it into your lineup, but I don’t consider him a must play at this price.

FD — $6,200 — SF
DK — $6,400 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 15.3 | Last Five Games: 17.4
Min/Game — Season: 32.0 | Last Five Games: 34.4
FP/Game — Season: 26.1 | Last Five Games: 30.7

Chicago Bulls

Record: 21-12 — Home: 15-5 — Last 10: 6-4

The Bulls have won six of their last ten games and have an impressive 15-5 record at home this season. Tonight they host the Celtics in a game that has the lowest spread on the board. The Bulls are listed as 5.5-point favorites with their team total set at 104.3 points.

For whatever reason, teams facing the Celtics always seem to have a higher team total than I would originally predict them for. Boston is very good defensively, ranking eighth in points allowed per game and second in defensive efficiency. While the Celtics do play at a fast pace, they are still one of the best defenses in the NBA.

Elite Plays

Pau Gasol

Gasol’s price continues to climb on FanDuel, but he is still a little underpriced on DraftKings. He comes into tonight’s game in good form, averaging 41.3 fantasy points in his last five contests. He also draws a favorable matchup against the Celtics, who have allowed the tenth most fantasy points to centers this season.

FD — $8,900 — PF
DK — $8,000 — C
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 21.7 | Last Five Games: 22.8
Min/Game — Season: 31.3 | Last Five Games: 33.0
FP/Game — Season: 38.2 | Last Five Games: 41.3

Taj Gibson

The Taj Mahal is coming off of one of his best games of the season. He had 11 points, 14 rebounds, and 6 blocks against the Bucks the other night at home. The Joakim Noah injury has cleared the way for big minutes and Gibson has taken advantage of them. He is a nice play again tonight, as he is still priced under $6,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings.

FD — $5,400 — PF
DK — $5,900 — PF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 11.8 | Last Five Games: 9.1
Min/Game — Season: 24.8 | Last Five Games: 33.5
FP/Game — Season: 20.5 | Last Five Games: 28.9

Secondary Plays

Jimmy Butler

Butler had that 40-point burst in the second-half against the Raptors and then followed it up with 32 points and 10 assists against the Bucks. So why on Earth do I have him listed as a secondary play? Dollar for dollar, I like James Harden more. I have no problems with using both players, but prefer Harden at his discounted price point.

FD — $8,500 — SG
DK — $8,200 — SG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 21.6 | Last Five Games: 23.6
Min/Game — Season: 37.8 | Last Five Games: 38.4
FP/Game — Season: 36.9 | Last Five Games: 42.3

Nikola Mirotic

If you can stomach a little risk, Mirotic could be considered an elite play tonight, even in cash games. However, if you are risk-averse, you may want to limit your exposure to him in tournaments. We all know the type of upside that he provides and he has been playing well over his last few games. He will have to deal with Jae Crowder though, which isn’t a favorable matchup.

FD — $4,800 — SF
DK — $5,200 — PF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 17.2 | Last Five Games: 13.6
Min/Game — Season: 23.8 | Last Five Games: 24.9
FP/Game — Season: 21.3 | Last Five Games: 21.5

Bobby Portis

If we could bank on Portis playing 25 minutes, I would have him listed as an elite play. However, it’s impossible to predict how many minutes he will play, especially since tonight’s game is expected to stay close. I love the upside that he provides, but the minutes uncertainty makes him a better target for tournaments than for cash games.

FD — $3,900 — PF
DK — $4,600 — PF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 19.3 | Last Five Games: 14.8
Min/Game — Season: 16.6 | Last Five Games: 24.5
FP/Game — Season: 16.0 | Last Five Games: 21.9

Los Angeles Lakers at Sacramento Kings – 10:30 PM

Los Angeles Lakers Sacramento Kings
lalakersnba Vegas Total 212.5 sacramentonba Vegas Total 212.5
Vegas Sprd 8.5 Vegas Sprd -8.5
Team Proj. 102.0 Team Proj. 110.5
Team Pace 98.80 Team Pace 102.10
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Jordan Clarkson Louis Williams Kobe Bryant “(player-popup)Larry Nance Jr Roy Hibbert Proj. Starter Rajon Rondo Ben McLemore Rudy Gay Quincy Acy DeMarcus Cousins
Opp. Season 24 28 25 28 28 Opp. Season 30 26 23 24 25
Opp. Last 7 24 23 16 29 18 Opp. Last 7 29 27 26 25 8

Los Angeles Lakers

Record: 8-28 — Road: 4-18 — Last 10: 4-6

The Lakers have won four of their last ten games, which is actually their best ten-game stretch of the season. Tonight they head to Sacramento to take on the Kings in what should be a high-scoring affair between two teams that hate playing defense. The Lakers have an implied team total of 102 points, which is 5.6 points higher than their average points per game.

The Kings have been one of the worst defensive teams in the NBA this season. They play at a fast pace and are ranked dead last in points allowed per game. It sounds like D’Angelo Russell and Kobe Bryant are both going to play tonight, which cuts into the production of Jordan Clarkson and Lou Williams.

Elite Plays

Jordan Clarkson

Clarkson has been solid in his last five games, averaging 29.9 fantasy points in 33 minutes per game. That does come with an asterisk though, as D’Angelo Russell and Kobe Bryant both missed games during that stretch. Clarkson deserves consideration again tonight though, as the Kings are ranked 24th against point guards this season.

FD — $6,100 — PG
DK — $5,700 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 18.9 | Last Five Games: 22.8
Min/Game — Season: 31.9 | Last Five Games: 33.0
FP/Game — Season: 24.0 | Last Five Games: 29.9

Secondary Plays

Louis Williams

As long as Williams remains in the starting lineup, he should be on your radar tonight. He draws a terrific matchup against the Kings and he also comes into tonight’s game in good form. Over his last five games, he is averaging 30.3 fantasy points per game.

FD — $5,500 — SG
DK — $5,900 — SG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 18.4 | Last Five Games: 19.2
Min/Game — Season: 28.4 | Last Five Games: 33.4
FP/Game — Season: 22.0 | Last Five Games: 30.3

“(player-popup)Larry Nance Jr

Nance has played well recently, averaging 23.3 fantasy points over his last five games. The issue that I have with Nance is the same issue that I have with Bobby Portis – minutes. He is only averaging 20.1 minutes on the season. He is a nice value, but not one that I would consider a must play tonight.

FD — $4,300 — PF
DK — $4,600 — PF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 10.9 | Last Five Games: 12.5
Min/Game — Season: 20.1 | Last Five Games: 24.3
FP/Game — Season: 13.5 | Last Five Games: 23.3

Sacramento Kings

Record: 14-21 — Home: 9-9 — Last 10: 4-6

The Kings have won four of their last ten games to improve to 14-21 on the season. They draw a favorable matchup tonight against the Lakers in what should be the highest scoring game on the schedule. The Kings are projected to score 110.5 points, which is easily the highest team total on the board.

The Lakers are just as bad as the Kings are defensively. The only difference is that the Lakers are a much worse rebounding teams, ranking 29th in rebounding differential. We can give the Kings a sizable boost as a whole tonight in this favorable matchup. There are two key injuries to monitor here and both impact the slate as a whole. Rajon Rondo and Omri Casspi are both listed as questionable. He’s not featured below, but Marco Belinelli would become a great play if both Rondo and Casspi are out.

Elite Plays

DeMarcus Cousins

Ladies and gentlemen, Cousins is back. After being stuck in the 40 fantasy point range there for a couple of weeks, he has broken out over his last three games, scoring 47, 60, and 65 fantasy points. He is the top play at any position tonight and he should be the guy that you start your lineups with.

FD — $10,400 — C
DK — $10,300 — PF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 28.6 | Last Five Games: 27.8
Min/Game — Season: 33.1 | Last Five Games: 32.0
FP/Game — Season: 44.0 | Last Five Games: 45.7

Rudy Gay

Gay is one of those players that is always priced affordably and always appears to be a solid fantasy option. He has a tendency to let us down more often than not, but you have to love the matchup tonight against the Lakers. Gay would also see a boost in minutes and/or usage if Rajon Rondo and/or Omri Casspi is ruled out.

FD — $7,100 — SF
DK — $7,000 — SF
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 20.0 | Last Five Games: 17.7
Min/Game — Season: 33.7 | Last Five Games: 35.8
FP/Game — Season: 30.1 | Last Five Games: 28.2

Darren Collison

This pick hinges on the status of Rajon Rondo. If Rondo is out, Collison becomes a must play against a Lakers’ team that is ranked dead last in fantasy points allowed to point guards this season. If Rondo plays, Collison becomes a sneaky tournament play. He has actually been playing very well off the bench recently.

FD — $5,600 — PG
DK — $6,000 — PG
TO-Adjusted Usage — Season: 17.9 | Last Five Games: 19.1
Min/Game — Season: 29.6 | Last Five Games: 33.5
FP/Game — Season: 23.4 | Last Five Games: 30.0

Secondary Plays

If Rajon Rondo is in the lineup tonight, bump him up to an elite play and bump Darren Collison down to a secondary option. If Omri Casspi is in the lineup tonight, bump him up to an elite play and bump Rudy Gay down to a secondary option.

About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious