NBA Grind Down: Thursday, November 16th
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.
Vegas lines are broken down to show projected Implied Team Totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.
We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.
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Before we get into the slate, I wanted to recap my crazy night of sweats. I’m in the minority in that I never check to see how my lineups are doing on the fantasy sites until after all of the games are over. I watch the box scores and generally have an idea of where I stand, but I like to wait for everything to be settled before seeing how my lineups actually fared. After the Lakers game ended, I had my hopes up for a decent finish in the $888 GPP on DraftKings. I opened the app and saw that I was in first for $150,000 and started fist pumping in my bed like a crazy man. I quickly remembered that there have been far too many stat corrections for me to feel confident in it holding. I heard that J.J. Redick score was wrong and that he would get five more fantasy points. After checking the standings, I thought there was only one person that could pass me.
Not long after that, I refreshed my lineups page and saw that I had dropped to third place because they took a rebound away from Jordan Clarkson. It was an absolutely brutal punch to the gut and I immediately got the “woe is me” feeling. But then I started thinking, if I wouldn’t have checked the scores that night and I would have woken up in the morning to a $50,000 payday, I would have been ecstatic. Sure, it was a brutal beat thanks to the way it unfolded, but in the end, the right stats were counted and I finished in third in a large tournament. I have no reason to complain. As with many things in life, we tend to focus on the negatives in DFS, but it provides far more good than bad. Not only does it provide nightly entertainment and the chance to win big prizes, but it provides a community for us to come together and share our love of sports.
I’ll get off of my soapbox now, but I do think it’s important to always keep a positive mindset. I received a lot of questions on Twitter about the actual lineup, so here it is:
I always feel better about winning lineups when they feature plays that I mentioned in the Grind Down. Jerami Grant was the one player that I didn’t really highlight yesterday, although I did say that he would benefit from Steven Adams and/or Carmelo Anthony being out. I was obviously high on the Sixers-Lakers game and once the Mike Conley news was announced, I loaded up on Mario Chalmers, Tyreke Evans, and Marc Gasol throughout my lineups. It sounds like a lot of the Grind Down readers had nice nights as well, which is one of the best parts of this gig. My goal is to help you improve as a DFS player, whether it be through recommending picks or giving tips on the strategy behind how I approach a slate.
Golden State Warriors at Boston Celtics – 8:00 PM ET
| Golden State Warriors | Boston Celtics | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 215.5 |  | Vegas Total | 215.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | -7.5 | Vegas Spread | 7.5 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 111.5 | Implied Team Total | 104.0 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -2.0 | Pace Projection +/- | 3.5 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Stephen Curry | Klay Thompson | Kevin Durant | Draymond Green | Zaza Pachulia | Projected Starters | Kyrie Irving | Jaylen Brown | Jayson Tatum | Al Horford | Aron Baynes | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 2 | 3 | 10 | 3 | 7 | DvP | 6 | 8 | 21 | 27 | 25 | |
| DRPM | 0.20 | 0.50 | 0.67 | 2.99 | 3.01 | DRPM | 0.35 | -1.05 | 0.28 | 2.60 | 2.33 | |
Golden State Warriors
The Warriors have won seven games in a row by at least ten points. They are not only winning, they are doing it in dominating fashion. The fact that they are listed as 7.5-point favorites against the team with the best record in basketball goes to show how well they are playing right now. Even though Golden State has arguably the most matchup-proof offense, this is still a difficult spot on the road against the Celtics. Boston is currently ranked first in points allowed per game and second in rebounding differential. The Warriors may still have a high implied total (111.5 points) compared to the other teams in the slate, but it is eight points below their season average.
Stephen Curry is expected to play tonight after missing Monday’s game with a thigh bruise. He should step right in and see a full complement of minutes. He leads the Warriors’ starters with a 27% true usage and a FP/min of 1.37. Kyrie Irving defense has been a popular topic of discussion this season. While he is certainly benefitting from the Celtics’ defense as a whole, it’s hard to argue with his DRPM of 0.20. Any DRPM above zero for a point guard is above-average. Curry will also see a lot of Marcus Smart, who is an even better defender than Irving. This isn’t a great matchup, but Curry is going to get open looks in this offense. He is still firmly in play in a two-game slate.
Klay Thompson is always intriguing in tournaments because his ownership tends to be lower than the shooting guards in the same price range. I expect that to be the case again tonight, as many will gravitate to James Harden at the top and Devin Booker in the mid-range. Kevin Durant is viable on FanDuel because we need to roster two small forwards and he’s viable on DraftKings thanks to a suppressed price point ($9,700). We used to be able to attack the Celtics with opposing bigs, but that hasn’t been the case this season. They are ranked third against power forwards, seventh against centers, and second in rebounding differential. Green seems a tad bit overpriced, especially given the other options at his position.
As for the role players on the Warriors, I don’t have a ton of interest in any of them. Andre Iguodala makes the most sense in a game that could be competitive throughout. Nick Young and Omri Casspi have had some nice outings recently, but those have been aided by the blowouts.
Notable Injuries
Stephen Curry (Probable)
Golden State Warriors Offense
Points Per Game: 119.6 (1 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 111.5 (2 of 4)
Projected Point Differential: -8.1 (4 of 4)
Matchup vs. Boston Celtics
Points Allowed Per Game: 94.5 (1 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 95.8 (1 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 5.5 (2 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.9 (22 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L3 +/- | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | Opp. DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Curry | $9,700 | $8,700 | $17,900 | 44.3 | 0.2 | 32.3 | -2.4 | 1.37 | 27.4% | 65.6% | 2 | 0.20 |
| Klay Thompson | $6,800 | $6,700 | $12,500 | 31.9 | -0.2 | 32.9 | -1.5 | 0.97 | 20.8% | 63.3% | 3 | 0.50 |
| Kevin Durant | $10,500 | $9,700 | $19,400 | 46.4 | -2.2 | 34.3 | -5.1 | 1.35 | 24.4% | 65.9% | 10 | 0.67 |
| Draymond Green | $8,200 | $7,300 | $13,200 | 33.7 | 3.7 | 29.9 | 0.2 | 1.13 | 15.8% | 64.5% | 3 | 2.99 |
| Zaza Pachulia | $3,200 | $3,100 | $6,000 | 12.5 | -0.2 | 13.9 | -0.5 | 0.90 | 11.6% | 54.4% | 7 | 3.01 |
| Andre Iguodala | $4,000 | $3,500 | $6,800 | 17.2 | -0.5 | 25.1 | -3.3 | 0.69 | 10.8% | 49.5% | N/A | N/A |
| Shaun Livingston | $3,200 | $3,500 | $7,200 | 13.8 | 7.0 | 16.8 | 2.3 | 0.82 | 15.1% | 52.5% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Stephen Curry (DK), Kevin Durant
Secondary Plays – Stephen Curry (FD), Klay Thompson, Draymond Green
Boston Celtics
After losing their first two games of the season (and Gordon Hayward in the process), the Celtics have reeled off 13 straight wins. The amazing part is that they are averaging fewer points per game than the Atlanta Hawks. They have slowed the pace of the game down and have been dominant on the defensive end of the floor. Tonight’s matchup against the Warriors isn’t necessarily good or bad. While the Warriors are ranked sixth in defensive efficiency, they also play at the fifth fastest pace. Boston comes into the game with an implied total of 104 points, which is the lowest on the board, but slightly above their season average.
Kyrie Irving has a nice track record against the Warriors, specifically in the NBA Championship a couple years back. Granted, he is on a new team with a new offense, but he has to feel confident heading into tonight’s game. He could see a few extra minutes of playing time and there’s a chance that he’s a little more aggressive when looking for his own shot. Marcus Smart doesn’t start, but he plays starter’s minutes. He is averaging 30.6 on the season and 33.7 in his last three games. They’ll need his defense on both Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson, so don’t be surprised to see a lot of Smart in this one.
As for the wings, Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum should both play close to 30 minutes tonight. These teams are both willing to play small, which does help their outlook a bit. I expect to see a lot of Brown at the three and Tatum at the four. Anytime a player’s salary is cheaper on FanDuel than it is on DraftKings, we should take note. That’s the case for both Brown and Tatum in this one. Marcus Morris had a monster game against the Nets the other night, but has yet to top 25 minutes in any game this season. He still provides decent value, but I prefer Brown and Tatum at slightly more expensive price points.
It will be interesting to see if the Celtics start Aron Baynes or whether they bring him off the bench. Either way, I’m not expecting him to play more than 15-18 minutes. This is not the type of game to expect big things from Baynes. Al Horford is very intriguing and he’ll likely go a tad under-owned with the two centers in the Rockets-Suns game soaking up so much ownership. Horford is a stat-stuffing big man that gets to face a Warriors’ defense that is ranked 27th against power forwards and 25th against centers. Don’t sleep on Horford in this one, he actually has a better matchup than Capela.
Notable Injuries
None
Boston Celtics Offense
Points Per Game: 102.7 (23 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 104.0 (4 of 4)
Projected Point Differential: 1.3 (3 of 4)
Matchup vs. Golden State Warriors
Points Allowed Per Game: 107.7 (22 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 101.8 (6 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 3.4 (7 of 30)
Pace of Play: 104.4 (5 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L3 +/- | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | Opp. DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyrie Irving | $8,300 | $8,100 | $15,600 | 36.8 | -18.3 | 30.9 | -15.5 | 1.19 | 29.0% | 54.0% | 6 | 0.35 |
| Jaylen Brown | $6,200 | $6,300 | $12,900 | 26.8 | 3.1 | 32.0 | 1.2 | 0.84 | 18.4% | 53.6% | 8 | -1.05 |
| Jayson Tatum | $5,600 | $6,100 | $13,400 | 26.2 | -2.4 | 30.1 | 1.2 | 0.87 | 15.9% | 63.4% | 21 | 0.28 |
| Al Horford | $7,500 | $7,600 | $14,900 | 34.0 | -0.4 | 31.9 | 0.0 | 1.07 | 17.7% | 67.9% | 27 | 2.60 |
| Aron Baynes | $3,400 | $3,700 | $7,200 | 17.0 | -2.1 | 19.4 | 0.2 | 0.88 | 15.0% | 49.1% | 25 | 2.33 |
| Marcus Morris | $5,000 | $4,900 | $11,400 | 22.9 | -0.8 | 22.7 | 0.9 | 1.01 | 22.0% | 58.3% | N/A | N/A |
| Marcus Smart | $5,800 | $5,500 | $11,300 | 26.3 | -2.9 | 30.6 | 3.1 | 0.86 | 19.8% | 40.6% | N/A | N/A |
| Terry Rozier | $4,400 | $4,700 | $9,100 | 22.4 | -0.6 | 24.5 | 1.5 | 0.91 | 20.2% | 46.3% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Kyrie Irving, Marcus Smart, Al Horford (GPP), Jaylen Brown (FD), Jayson Tatum (FD)
Secondary Plays – Al Horford (Cash), Jaylen Brown (DK), Jayson Tatum (DK), Marcus Morris
Houston Rockets at Phoenix Suns – 10:30 PM ET
| Houston Rockets | Phoenix Suns | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 228.5 |  | Vegas Total | 228.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | -12.0 | Vegas Spread | 12.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 120.3 | Implied Team Total | 108.3 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 5.1 | Pace Projection +/- | 0.3 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Chris Paul | James Harden | Trevor Ariza | Ryan Anderson | Clint Capela | Projected Starters | Tyler Ulis | Devin Booker | T.J. Warren | Marquese Chriss | Alex Len | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 30 | 27 | 15 | 28 | 12 | DvP | 7 | 18 | 18 | 6 | 17 | |
| DRPM | -2.24 | -1.33 | -1.72 | 0.66 | 0.50 | DRPM | -0.73 | 0.73 | 0.54 | -0.56 | 2.60 | |
Houston Rockets
The Rockets are finally getting the band back together, as Chris Paul is expected to return from his knee injury. Houston said that he will play about 20 minutes, but we can never fully trust coaches and their minute restrictions. In this instance, I’m inclined to believe Mike D’Antoni. The Rockets draw a dream matchup against the Suns, who are ranked second in pace of play and dead last in points allowed per game. Houston is listed as 12-point favorites with an implied total of 120.3 points. Not only do they have the highest total on the board, but they also have the best projected point differential at +9.1.
With Paul being on a minute limit, he is off the table for fantasy purposes. It would take some incredible efficiency for him to reach value at his current price point. Paul being limited actually benefits the rest of the lineup, including James Harden. He is the top overall play on the board tonight and it’s fairly easy to fit him in your lineups. There isn’t a single player on the Suns that can slow him down and the fact that they will be without their best rim protector only helps Harden. We don’t need to over-analyze this one, Harden is an elite play in all formats. Eric Gordon will likely come off the bench tonight, which is going to drastically lower his ownership. If anything, it may actually help his usage, as he’ll now get to man the second unit and I still expect him to play over 30 minutes.
Trevor Ariza is a player that I never get too excited to target in DFS. He’s fine if you need a small forward at his price point, but he’s not a player that I’m going to start my builds with. I’m more interested in Ryan Anderson and P.J. Tucker. Anderson’s home/road splits are well documented and he should be locked into 30+ minutes with Nene Hilario out. Tucker also benefits from Nene’s absence, as long as he doesn’t get throw out of the game like he did on Tuesday night. If you are into the revenge narrative, Tucker did play for the Suns for nearly five years.
Clint Capela has been so good that he deserves his own paragraph. While I love Al Horford as a leverage play in tournaments, Capela is my favorite of the two when I’m talking about a core play tonight. He is averaging 39 fantasy points in his last three games, he draws a favorable matchup against the Suns, and his minutes have been creeping up. Tarik Black came in and stole some of his production the other night, but that’s not something that will happen regularly. If Capela comes close to playing 30 minutes tonight, he has a great chance of exceeding salary expectations once again.
Notable Injuries
Chris Paul (Probable)
Nene Hilario (Doubtful)
Houston Rockets Offense
Points Per Game: 111.2 (3 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 120.3 (1 of 4)
Projected Point Differential: 9.1 (1 of 4)
Matchup vs. Phoenix Suns
Points Allowed Per Game: 115.1 (30 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 108.4 (27 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.1 (20 of 30)
Pace of Play: 106.0 (2 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L3 +/- | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | Opp. DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Paul | $8,900 | $7,100 | $15,900 | 36.6 | 33.1 | 1.11 | 15.2% | 22.2% | 30 | -2.24 | ||
| James Harden | $12,500 | $12,700 | $24,200 | 53.2 | 2.9 | 36.3 | 0.5 | 1.47 | 34.8% | 61.1% | 27 | -1.33 |
| Trevor Ariza | $6,000 | $5,200 | $11,300 | 25.2 | 3.9 | 35.7 | -0.1 | 0.71 | 12.9% | 53.9% | 15 | -1.72 |
| Ryan Anderson | $4,600 | $4,500 | $8,500 | 21.4 | -0.7 | 31.2 | -0.9 | 0.69 | 13.1% | 58.3% | 28 | 0.66 |
| Clint Capela | $7,400 | $7,200 | $13,400 | 35.2 | 3.4 | 26.1 | 5.5 | 1.35 | 15.7% | 70.8% | 12 | 0.50 |
| P.J. Tucker | $4,000 | $3,700 | $7,200 | 18.8 | -1.5 | 27.9 | -4.9 | 0.67 | 9.6% | 52.0% | N/A | N/A |
| Tarik Black | $3,300 | $3,500 | $7,300 | 11.2 | 4.1 | 9.7 | 2.6 | 1.15 | 12.0% | 76.1% | N/A | N/A |
| Eric Gordon | $6,100 | $6,200 | $13,000 | 29.9 | -2.9 | 33.3 | -1.1 | 0.90 | 25.0% | 58.2% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – James Harden, Clint Capela, Ryan Anderson, P.J. Tucker
Secondary Plays – Trevor Ariza, Eric Gordon
Phoenix Suns
The Suns are always one of my favorite teams to see on the schedule because they push the pace and they don’t play defense. This leads to a lot of high scoring games and consequently, a lot of fantasy points. Tonight they host the Rockets, who are ranked 13th in pace of play and 12th in defensive efficiency. This game has all the makings of a shootout, but it does have some blowout potential with a 12-point spread. Phoenix has an implied total of 108.3 points, which is the third highest on the board and two points above their season average.
Even though it could be argued that Mike James was outplaying Tyler Ulis, the Suns have decided to roll with Ulis as their starter for now. In the last two games, Ulis has averaged 26 minutes, while James has averaged 17. In DFS, we have to follow the minutes and that means we have to give the nod to Ulis tonight. The matchup against Chris Paul is far from ideal, but Ulis is cheap enough that he deserves consideration. On FanDuel, we have to roster two point guards and one of the four starters tonight (Paul) is on a minute restriction. Devin Booker leads the Suns’ starters with a 26% true usage rate this season. His minutes and production have both been trending up and I like his matchup against the wings from Houston.
T.J. Warren production is volatile to say the least, but he is finally starting to see a full complement of minutes. He is averaging 36 minutes per game over his last three and could see close to that again tonight. Phoenix has tightened their rotation recently, which should be music to our ears. I like pairing Warren with Booker, as the Suns will need a big game from both players if they are going to keep this game close. Marquese Chriss has also seen a bump in minutes recently if you want to take a shot on him in tournaments. Power forward is pretty loaded for a two-game slate, so he’s a GPP dart at best.
Alex Len could be the best value play of the slate if he can stay out of foul trouble. He averages just under a fantasy point per minute this season and could see upwards of 30 minutes tonight against the Rockets. Foul trouble is a big concern in this matchup though, as Clint Capela fights for offensive rebounds and James Harden is always drawing fouls near the basket. I’m willing to take that risk given Len’s upside, but don’t say that I didn’t warn you if he picks up two quick ones in the first quarter. It sounds like Greg Monroe is close to making his debut with the Suns. Even if he plays, he’s unlikely to see enough minutes to make a fantasy impact.
Notable Injuries
Jared Dudley (Out)
Tyson Chandler (Out)
Greg Monroe (Questionable)
Phoenix Suns Offense
Points Per Game: 106.1 (13 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 108.3 (3 of 4)
Projected Point Differential: 2.2 (2 of 4)
Matchup vs. Houston Rockets
Points Allowed Per Game: 104.6 (11 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.3 (12 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 4.6 (4 of 30)
Pace of Play: 101.2 (13 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L3 +/- | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | Opp. DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Ulis | $4,000 | $4,200 | $8,500 | 15.2 | 1.5 | 21.0 | 3.1 | 0.72 | 19.0% | 39.0% | 7 | -0.73 |
| Devin Booker | $7,600 | $7,500 | $13,600 | 34.9 | 4.3 | 33.7 | 3.0 | 1.04 | 26.2% | 57.5% | 18 | 0.73 |
| T.J. Warren | $7,200 | $6,500 | $11,900 | 31.0 | 4.9 | 29.2 | 5.2 | 1.06 | 23.9% | 53.9% | 18 | 0.54 |
| Marquese Chriss | $4,500 | $4,000 | $7,600 | 19.3 | 5.3 | 21.0 | 3.9 | 0.92 | 13.8% | 51.6% | 6 | -0.56 |
| Alex Len | $4,800 | $4,400 | $8,500 | 22.1 | 2.4 | 22.9 | 3.6 | 0.96 | 13.4% | 58.7% | 17 | 2.60 |
| Mike James | $4,700 | $4,100 | $8,600 | 22.9 | -5.8 | 23.8 | -2.4 | 0.96 | 23.1% | 50.9% | N/A | N/A |
| Josh Jackson | $3,300 | $3,600 | $6,900 | 17.1 | 1.1 | 21.5 | -2.1 | 0.80 | 20.0% | 43.6% | N/A | N/A |