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NBA Grind Down: Tuesday, December 27th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2016-12-28 03:42:43

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.

Editor’s Note: Goran Dragic and Mike Conley have been ruled OUT for tonight.

Memphis Grizzlies at Boston Celtics – 7:30 PM ET

Memphis Grizzlies Boston Celtics
memphisnba Vegas Total 200.0 bostonnba Vegas Total 200.0
Vegas Spread 7.0 Vegas Spread -7.0
Team Total 96.5 Team Total 103.5
Pace +/- -0.2 Pace +/- -3.3
Proj. Starter Mike Conley Tony Allen James Ennis JaMychal Green Marc Gasol Proj. Starter Isaiah Thomas Avery Bradley Jae Crowder Amir Johnson Al Horford
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 18 6 23 20 24 DvP 2 10 1 5 1
DRPM -2.98 -2.29 1.51 1.09 1.90 DRPM -0.44 1.74 0.76 1.14 2.24

Memphis Grizzlies

I hate to be rude, but tonight’s slate is ugly. U-G-L-Y, this slate ain’t got no alibi, it’s ugly, yeah, yeah, it’s ugly. With that said, we all love fantasy basketball, so rather than avoiding the slate, we will work with the cards that we’ve been dealt. The Grizzlies are playing their second game in as many nights, after losing to the Magic in Orlando last night. Tonight they head to Boston to take on the Celtics in a game that features an over/under of 200 points. The Grizzlies are listed as 7-point underdogs with an implied total of only 96.5 points, which is the lowest in the slate. On a positive note, the Grizzlies will be looking to bounce back after a bad loss against the Magic.

There will be a lot of talk about the Grizzlies’ players being limited in the second half of a back-to-back, but assuming they are all active, I’m not concerned about their minutes. In the second halves of back-to-backs this season, Mike Conley is averaging 32 minutes and 31 fantasy points, while Marc Gasol is averaging 34 minutes and 40 fantasy points. Conley draws a tremendous matchup against Isaiah Thomas, who has a DRPM (Defensive Real Plus Minus) of -2.98 this season. Gasol draws an exploitable matchup as well, as the Celtics are ranked 24th against centers and 29th in rebounding differential. Tony Allen has scored at least 22 fantasy points in five of his last seven games and could see a few extra minutes tonight if they decide to stick him on Isaiah Thomas. Chandler Parsons has yet to play more than 15 minutes since coming back from injury and can be avoided in all formats.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Mike Conley $6,800 $6,400 1.04 31.5 -5.2 32.7 -4.9 28.9% 0.1% 18 -2.98
Tony Allen $4,400 $4,500 0.76 27.7 -1.2 21.2 -5.2 17.7% -3.7% 6 -2.29
James Ennis $3,600 $3,300 0.65 26.7 -6.5 17.3 -0.6 13.9% 0.5% 23 1.51
JaMychal Green $4,900 $4,400 0.73 29.7 -1.6 21.8 -4.8 14.7% -1.0% 20 1.09
Marc Gasol $7,800 $7,200 1.07 34.0 -1.0 36.4 0.2 28.3% -1.2% 24 1.90
Zach Randolph $5,400 $5,100 1.12 22.2 -1.5 25.0 -0.5 29.4% 0.8% 20 N/A

Elite Plays – Mike Conley, Marc Gasol

Secondary Plays – Tony Allen

Boston Celtics

The Celtics have won six of their last ten games and are now five games above .500 on the season. Unfortunately, they draw a daunting matchup against a Grizzlies’ team that is ranked 28th in pace of play, second in points allowed per game, and first in defensive efficiency. The only positive is that Memphis will be playing on short rest. The Celtics have an implied total of 103.5 points tonight, which is the fourth highest in the slate and 1.8 points below their season average.

Even though the Grizzlies are ranked inside the top ten in fantasy points allowed to all five positions on the floor, we have few options in tonight’s four game slate. Isaiah Thomas draws the best individual matchup of the five starters, as Mike Conley is the only Grizzlies’ starter that has a negative DRPM. Thomas is averaging 39.2 fantasy points on the season with an elite true usage rate of 35.1%. At a price under $8,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings, Thomas deserves consideration as an elite play in all formats. The Grizzlies have been stingy against opposing wing players this season, but Avery Bradley and Jae Crowder are cheap enough that they should be considered secondary plays tonight. Amir Johnson has played well recently and could see a few extra minutes against a big Grizzlies’ frontcourt. Al Horford has been my go-to play at center on DraftKings recently, but I’m not a fan of targeting players against Marc Gasol.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Isaiah Thomas $7,900 $7,900 1.18 33.3 -0.2 39.2 2.7 35.1% 3.9% 2 -0.44
Avery Bradley $6,200 $5,900 0.88 35.1 -2.3 30.9 -5.5 22.0% 0.2% 10 1.74
Jae Crowder $5,100 $5,300 0.77 31.4 2.2 24.1 -4.1 16.8% -3.0% 1 0.76
Amir Johnson $4,300 $3,500 0.80 20.0 4.5 16.0 10.0 14.8% 2.7% 5 1.14
Al Horford $7,800 $6,900 1.08 33.1 0.4 35.9 -1.1 22.8% -0.1% 1 2.24
Marcus Smart $4,800 $4,300 0.74 29.7 -3.8 22.1 2.6 20.1% 2.7% 10 N/A

Elite Plays – Isaiah Thomas

Secondary Plays – Avery Bradley, Jae Crowder, Amir Johnson (DK), Al Horford (DK)

Oklahoma City Thunder at Miami Heat – 7:30 PM ET

Oklahoma City Thunder Miami Heat
oklahomacitynba Vegas Total 205.0 miaminba Vegas Total 205.0
Vegas Spread -4.0 Vegas Spread 4.0
Team Total 104.5 Team Total 100.5
Pace +/- -1.9 Pace +/- 2.0
Proj. Starter Russell Westbrook Anthony Morrow Andre Roberson Domantas Sabonis Steven Adams Proj. Starter Goran Dragic Josh Richardson Justise Winslow James Johnson Hassan Whiteside
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 2 7 16 12 21 DvP 24 2 11 19 4
DRPM -1.98 -0.35 0.43 2.08 1.20 DRPM -0.69 -1.48 2.04 1.58 1.65

Oklahoma City Thunder

The Thunder have won three games in a row and are now 19-12 overall. Their matchup tonight against the Heat is far from ideal, but the same can be said about most of the teams in this slate. On the season, Miami is ranked 25th in pace of play, seventh in points allowed per game, and 11th in defensive efficiency. The Thunder have an implied total of 104.5 points. While their team total is the second highest in the slate, it is considerably lower than their season average.

Russell Westbrook (NESWestbrook) is like the sixth grader on the playground that is playing basketball against a bunch of fourth graders. Even though some of the kids may be the same size, it’s really not fair. He is averaging 31.7 points, 10.4 rebounds, 10.9 assists, and 1.6 blocks/steals per game. In theory, he shouldn’t be as strong of a play against a team like the Heat that has an elite rim protector in Hassan Whiteside, but fading Westbrook is a scary proposition in cash games. Steven Adams is coming off of a nice three game stretch, averaging 28.2 fantasy points with a true usage of 18.9%. Enes Kanter figures to be a popular target tonight off the bench. He is finally starting to play more minutes, averaging 29 in his last three games.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Russell Westbrook $13,000 $12,500 1.66 35.0 -1.3 58.2 7.0 46.1% 3.3% 2 -1.98
Anthony Morrow $3,500 $3,000 0.54 16.5 -2.4 8.9 -4.3 15.5% -3.4% 7 -0.35
Andre Roberson $3,900 $3,800 0.57 31.6 -0.4 18.1 0.7 10.7% -0.3% 16 0.43
Domantas Sabonis $3,500 $3,000 0.64 20.9 -2.1 13.4 1.7 14.7% 1.7% 12 2.08
Steven Adams $5,700 $5,100 0.83 29.7 -2.6 24.8 3.4 16.1% 2.8% 21 1.20
Enes Kanter $5,500 $4,900 1.14 19.9 9.1 22.7 8.4 24.9% -3.1% 12 N/A

Elite Plays – Russell Westbrook, Enes Kanter

Secondary Plays – Steven Adams

Miami Heat

The Heat are vying for the coveted title of having the most players on the injury report throughout the course of the season. Rodney McGruder and Wayne Ellington are hoping to return to the lineup tonight, but Josh McRoberts has been ruled out and Goran Dragic is questionable with some back pain. The Heat draw a mediocre matchup tonight against the Thunder, who are ranked 18th in points allowed per game and tenth in defensive efficiency. Miami has an implied total of 100.5 points, which may not seem like much, but it is 1.9 points above their season average.

In the games that Goran Dragic has missed this season, Josh Richardson has slid over and started at point guard. If Dragic is unable to suit up tonight, Richardson would become an elite value play in this small slate. Tyler Johnson would also see a nice boost off the bench and would become an elite play as well. If Dragic is active, all three are closer to secondary plays, even though the Thunder have struggled against point guards this season. With Josh McRoberts out, the Heat will likely start Derrick Williams or Justise Winslow at the four. I don’t mind Winslow here, but the biggest boost may go to James Johnson. Johnson has scored at least 25 fantasy points in five of his last six games. Hassan Whiteside draws a difficult matchup against Steven Adams. In his last three meetings against Adams, Whiteside has failed to clear the 35 fantasy point mark.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Goran Dragic $7,300 $7,100 0.96 34.4 3.8 33.0 -2.8 29.5% -1.5% 24 -0.69
Josh Richardson $4,100 $4,400 0.60 29.9 7.9 18.0 -0.6 18.9% -2.8% 2 -1.48
Justise Winslow $5,200 $5,300 0.71 35.4 6.6 25.0 5.9 20.6% -0.1% 11 2.04
James Johnson $5,000 $4,600 0.88 24.4 0.9 21.4 9.5 20.9% 3.8% 19 1.58
Hassan Whiteside $9,200 $8,700 1.21 34.0 6.0 41.2 5.7 22.2% -3.0% 4 1.65
Tyler Johnson $5,600 $5,000 0.83 31.1 2.7 25.8 5.7 21.3% 1.4% 24 N/A
Rodney McGruder $3,600 $3,000 0.53 25.6 13.6 12.4% 2 N/A

Elite Plays – Tyler Johnson and Josh Richardson (if Dragic is out)

Secondary Plays – Goran Dragic, Tyler Johnson, and Josh Richardson (if Dragic is active), Hassan Whiteside, Justise Winslow, James Johnson

Houston Rockets at Dallas Mavericks – 8:30 PM ET

Houston Rockets Dallas Mavericks
houstonnba Vegas Total 210.5 dallasnba Vegas Total 210.5
Vegas Spread -6.5 Vegas Spread 6.5
Team Total 108.5 Team Total 102.0
Pace +/- -5.6 Pace +/- 1.6
Proj. Starter James Harden Corey Brewer Trevor Ariza Ryan Anderson Montrezl Harrell Proj. Starter Deron Williams Wesley Matthews Dorian Finney-Smith Harrison Barnes Dirk Nowitzki
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 1 9 5 7 16 DvP 5 23 26 22 17
DRPM -0.40 0.21 0.61 -0.71 0.26 DRPM -0.82 0.33 1.78 -0.60 0.60

Houston Rockets

The Rockets picked up an easy win over the Suns last night and didn’t have to expend a lot of energy in the second half. Tonight they head to Dallas to take on the slowest paced team in the NBA. On the season, the Mavericks are ranked fifth in points allowed per game and fourth in fantasy points allowed per game. Even though the Rockets’ implied total is considerably lower than their season average, it is still the highest on the board. The fact that the spread is set at only 6.5 points bodes well for the playing time of the starters.

Patrick Beverley hurt his thigh last night against the Suns. The Rockets say that the injury isn’t serious, but that they may hold him out of tonight’s game as a precaution. If that’s the case, the Rockets could start Eric Gordon, Corey Brewer, or Sam Dekker. Regardless of the starting lineup, all three players should see a small boost in minutes if Beverley is unable to suit up. James Harden is averaging 52.6 fantasy points this season with a true usage rate of 38%. He can take over a game at any time and the Mavericks don’t have anyone that can stay in front of him. Dollar for dollar, I slightly prefer Harden over Russell Westbrook. Trevor Ariza is a fine play in all formats, although I typically prefer to target him in uptempo games. Ryan Anderson has played at least 35 minutes in two of the four games without Clint Capela. He is a little expensive on FanDuel, but an elite play on DraftKings. Montrezl Harrell is one of the best value plays tonight on FanDuel. He should see minutes in the mid to upper 20s against a Mavericks’ team that is ranked dead last in rebounding differential this season.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
James Harden $11,400 $11,400 1.43 36.7 -3.0 52.6 -3.9 38.0% 0.9% 1 -0.40
Corey Brewer $3,500 $3,000 0.57 13.8 -1.7 7.8 -2.0 13.7% 0.3% 9 0.21
Trevor Ariza $5,400 $5,200 0.75 33.5 -1.4 25.2 -1.9 15.3% -3.5% 5 0.61
Ryan Anderson $6,200 $5,300 0.72 30.9 -1.3 22.3 6.0 17.6% 2.5% 7 -0.71
Montrezl Harrell $4,300 $4,800 0.91 15.1 11.1 13.7 11.9 18.6% 0.7% 16 0.26
Eric Gordon $5,700 $5,500 0.83 30.7 -1.4 25.4 3.4 23.6% 3.3% 9 N/A
Sam Dekker $3,500 $3,200 0.75 18.7 1.1 14.0 -3.0 15.5% -0.5% 5 N/A

Elite Plays – James Harden, Montrezl Harrell, Ryan Anderson (DK)

Secondary Plays – Trevor Ariza, Ryan Anderson (FD), Eric Gordon, Sam Dekker

Dallas Mavericks

The Mavericks have won five of their last ten games, which means they are playing their best basketball of the season. They draw a pace-up matchup against the Rockets tonight and they get to play at home. The Rockets haven’t been awful defensively this season, but are ranked 19th in both points allowed per game and defensive efficiency. The Mavericks come into the game as 6.5-point underdogs with an implied total of 102 points. Dallas has the highest projected point differential (+7.9) of any team in tonight’s slate.

J.J. Barea has already been ruled out of tonight’s contest, which solidifies Deron Williams minutes in the low to mid 30s. The way I see it, Williams is a secondary option if Patrick Beverley is playing and a truly elite option if Beverley is ruled out. Seth Curry should also benefit from Barea’s absence, as he should see minutes in the upper 20s .He grades out as one of the best point-per-dollar value plays on DraftKings. Wesley Matthews has played well over the last month and could see upwards of 38-40 minutes in a favorable matchup against Houston. Harrison Barnes is in a similar situation, as he is ranked fifth in minutes played per game this season. Dirk Nowitzki has yet to play more than 17 minutes since coming back from injury. He needs to crack the 20 minute mark before I will seriously consider him at this price point. Dwight Powell is an intriguing GPP flier, as his price is down across the industry.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Deron Williams $6,700 $5,600 0.84 30.7 2.3 25.7 8.4 27.3% 5.1% 5 -0.82
Wesley Matthews $6,000 $5,400 0.67 36.1 2.6 24.2 4.6 21.1% 1.2% 23 0.33
Dorian Finney-Smith $3,800 $3,400 0.50 22.6 3.6 11.2 -1.7 12.3% -4.7% 26 1.78
Harrison Barnes $6,700 $6,300 0.82 36.5 0.6 30.0 0.9 25.4% 1.0% 22 -0.60
Dirk Nowitzki $5,200 $4,700 0.95 24.2 -8.4 23.0 -3.4 27.6% 5.2% 17 0.60
Dwight Powell $4,100 $3,900 0.84 21.2 -0.4 17.8 0.0 15.6% -3.3% 22 N/A
Salah Mejri $3,600 $3,100 0.78 14.5 6.0 11.3 3.0 9.3% -4.1% 17 N/A
Seth Curry $4,500 $3,600 0.69 26.8 -0.2 18.4 2.2 20.0% -1.6% 23 N/A

Elite Plays – Wesley Matthews, Harrison Barnes, Deron Williams (if Beverley is out)

Secondary Plays – Deron Williams (if Beverley is active), Dwight Powell (GPP)

Utah Jazz at Los Angeles Lakers – 10:30 PM ET

Utah Jazz Los Angeles Lakers
utahnba Vegas Total 204.0 lalakersnba Vegas Total 204.0
Vegas Spread -5.0 Vegas Spread 5.0
Team Total 104.5 Team Total 99.5
Pace +/- 2.3 Pace +/- -5.5
Proj. Starter Shelvin Mack Rodney Hood Gordon Hayward Boris Diaw Rudy Gobert Proj. Starter D’Angelo Russell Nick Young Luol Deng Julius Randle Timofey Mozgov
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 26 27 29 28 28 DvP 2 4 3 1 4
DRPM -0.71 -1.49 0.39 0.05 -0.41 DRPM -0.56 0.66 0.50 0.01 4.34

Utah Jazz

The Jazz are looking to snap a three game losing streak tonight against the Lakers. The fact that they are five games above .500 is a testament to their depth when you consider how many injuries they have had this season. Their matchup against the Lakers is an exploitable one, as Los Angeles is ranked 27th in points allowed per game and 29th in defensive efficiency. The Jazz come into the game as 5-point favorites with an implied total of 104.5 points, which is the second highest in the slate and 5.4 points above their season average.

In the two games that George Hill and Dante Exum have both missed this season, Shelvin Mack has played 33.9 and 34.1 minutes. He should see close to that tonight against a Lakers’ defense that is ranked 26th against point guards this season. Even though Mack isn’t the most productive per-minute point guard around, it’s hard to pass on this type of value in a four game slate. Rodney Hood fantasy production has been all over the map recently, but his price is all the way down to $4,800 on FanDuel. If he sees close to 30 minutes tonight against the Lakers, he should easily reach value. Gordon Hayward is a strong play at small forward, especially given the fact that the Jazz like to run their offense through him when Hill is out. Rudy Gobert has scored at least 32 fantasy points in ten straight games, topping the 40 fantasy point mark six times during that stretch. Dollar for dollar, I prefer Gobert over Hassan Whiteside. Derrick Favors and Trey Lyles are both intriguing punt plays for tournaments, although neither should be trusted in a cash game format.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Shelvin Mack $4,700 $5,000 0.68 23.3 6.7 15.9 1.8 22.1% 0.4% 26 -0.71
Rodney Hood $4,800 $5,300 0.79 29.1 -17.1 22.9 -19.7 24.0% 3.9% 27 -1.49
Gordon Hayward $7,800 $8,000 1.00 35.4 -0.7 35.5 -7.4 28.3% -0.9% 29 0.39
Boris Diaw $3,500 $3,000 0.49 21.2 -4.0 10.4 -0.6 16.2% 4.6% 28 0.05
Rudy Gobert $7,900 $7,700 1.01 32.7 1.2 32.9 3.7 14.3% -0.6% 28 -0.41
Derrick Favors $4,700 $3,800 0.91 20.9 -5.2 19.0 -4.9 21.1% 1.5% 28 N/A

Elite Plays – Shelvin Mack, Gordon Hayward, Rudy Gobert

Secondary Plays – Rodney Hood (FD)

Los Angeles Lakers

The Lakers are 12-22 on the season, which is where most people would have predicted them to be at through their first 34 games. The story that their record doesn’t tell is that they were above .500 for close to a month. The Lakers draw the worst possible matchup tonight, as they square off against a Jazz defense that is ranked first in points allowed per game and fourth in defensive efficiency. The Lakers are projected to see 5.5 fewer possessions tonight than their season average.

If you look at the DvP chart above, you can see that the Jazz are ranked fourth or better in fantasy points allowed to all five positions on the floor. Even in a four game slate, a complete fade of the Lakers may not be the worst idea. D’Angelo Russell is a decent tournament play on DraftKings, but at that price I would rather play Shelvin Mack. Nick Young and Luol Deng are both averaging over 31 minutes per game in their last three, but the Jazz are very good at defending wing players. Julius Randle and Thomas Robinson have flashed some upside, but given the matchup, they are GPP darts at best.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
D’Angelo Russell $5,600 $5,100 0.97 26.4 5.0 25.7 -0.3 30.5% -2.6% 2 -0.56
Nick Young $4,500 $4,100 0.77 26.2 5.1 20.1 2.6 19.1% -4.4% 4 0.66
Luol Deng $5,000 $5,300 0.73 26.8 6.3 19.6 11.1 15.4% -0.1% 3 0.50
Julius Randle $6,100 $5,800 0.98 28.8 2.4 28.2 9.2 23.4% -4.4% 1 0.01
Timofey Mozgov $3,600 $3,400 0.72 21.4 5.3 15.5 2.8 16.9% 1.4% 4 4.34
Jordan Clarkson $4,100 $4,200 0.77 28.3 -4.1 21.9 -7.4 24.0% 0.4% 2 N/A
Lou Williams $5,500 $4,900 1.09 25.1 -0.8 27.4 -3.8 30.7% -0.4% 4 N/A
Thomas Robinson $3,900 $3,200 0.94 11.0 6.7 10.3 11.1 16.1% -1.5% 1 N/A

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – D’Angelo Russell (DK), Nick Young, Luol Deng

About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious