NBA Grind Down: Tuesday, February 25th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2014-02-25 22:33:51

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down Article. Each day, we’ll break down all of the matchups with a focus on defense vs. position stats. The Grind Down shows you Vegas lines, defense stats and projected starting lineups for each and every game.

The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!

Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NFL Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review

Click ‘Stat Chart’ Buttons Below for Pop-Ups of Essential Game-Specific Statistics including Defense vs. Position and Pace

Toronto at Cleveland

Vegas Line – Toronto -3, 192.5 Over/Under
Toronto Proj. Starters – Lowry-Derozan-Ross-Patterson-Valanciunas
Cleveland Proj. Starters – Irving-Jack-Deng-Thompson-Hawes

Toronto

The Raptors are 3 point favorites tonight against the Cavs in a game that features one of the lowest totals of the night. We have quite a few games that are expected to be barn burners so this game is fairly low on the totem pole in terms of fantasy potential. That said, this is a pretty solid matchup for the Raptors. The Cavs are giving up 101.4 points per game to their opponents this season.

The Cavs have really struggled to defend the PG and SF positions this season. That said, Terrence Ross is a pretty average option tonight as there are better punt options in some of the other games. I will be avoiding the ugly Raptors’ big men situation again tonight. While I’m not personally calling them ugly, I do think the fantasy situation is ugly. Valanciunas, Patterson, Johnson, and Hansbrough are all scrapping for the minutes of two positions.

Kyle Lowry – Lowry will likely be under-owned tonight because there are so many good PG options on the board. However, I will argue that he has the best matchup of the bunch. The Cavs have given up the 2nd most FP’s to opposing PG’s this season. Lowry put up 14 points, 9 assists, 6 rebounds, and 3 steals in their first meeting this season and I’m expecting even better numbers this time around.

DeMar DeRozan – Even though the Cavs have been ranked 4th over the last 15 days against SG’s, I don’t mind the matchup for DeRozan tonight. His price is pretty low right now across the industry and I think he makes a solid cash game play. He will have a nice height advantage over Jack which means he can exploit his matchup in the post or just pull up and shoot over him.

Cleveland

The Cavs will be without Anderson Varejao, Dion Waiters, and C.J. Miles again tonight. These injuries have opened up big minutes for players like Tyler Zeller, Spencer Hawes, Luol Deng and Jarrett Jack. The Cavs matchup tonight is not a great one. The Raptors are only giving up 96.5 points per game this season which is the 4th lowest in the league.

The Raptors are ranked 16th or better against all five positions on the floor in terms of fantasy points allowed. Kyrie Irving should be avoided tonight, even though he has good home splits, he has a very tough matchup against Lowry. The two plays that I would recommend here are Jarrett Jack and Spencer Hawes. Jack is playing big minutes right now and is still close to minimum salary on most sites. Hawes has played well in a Cavs uniform and should continue to see more minutes that Zeller.

L.A.Lakers at Indiana

Vegas Line – Indiana -13, 202 Over/Under
L.A.Lakers Proj. Starters – Marshall-Meeks-Johnson-Hill-Kaman
Indiana Proj. Starters – Hill-Stephenson-George-West-Hibbert

L.A.Lakers

Even though the Lakers are short-handed, extended minutes against a Pacers team doesn’t exactly equate to fantasy production. The Pacers own the league’s best defense, they are holding their opponents to 90.9 points per game and are ranked 7th or better against all five positions in terms of fantasy points allowed. This game has blowout written all over it and I do not recommend taking any Lakers’ player tonight.

Indiana

The Pacers have a very favorable matchup against the Lakers who are giving up 105.9 points per game and are ranked 27th or worse at defending all positions this season. While the matchup is great, we do have the potential blowout to factor in. I have a hard time seeing this game stay competitive and the Pacers have some new pieces that they will likely want to give extended minutes to.

The question for me is whether or not the Pacers’ starters can cover their value in 3 quarters of play. George Hill is probably your safest bet because he is the cheapest of the bunch. He makes a great play on DS where he is under $8k. Roy Hibbert price is depressed on a couple of sites as well and could make a nice punt option at Center. Lance Stephenson and Paul George both have incredible upside in this matchup, but I’m not sure I will be paying up for them in my cash games with all of the other options available tonight. I think they are better served as GPP plays.

Orlando at Washington

Vegas Line – Washington -9.5, 195.5 Over/Under
Orlando Proj. Starters – Nelson-Oladipo-Afflalo-Harris-Vucevic
Washington Proj. Starters – Wall-Beal-Ariza-Booker-Gortat

Orlando

The Magic no longer have Glen Davis on the roster and will be without Arron Afflalo tonight. This opens up huge minutes for both Victor Oladipo and Tobias Harris. The injury also means big minutes for Maurice Harkless, Jameer Nelson, and Nikola Vucevic. The Magic are big underdogs tonight though and they have been one of the worst road teams in the league this season.

While the Wizards have been pretty solid defensively this season, the extended playing time more than make up for the bad matchup. Jameer Nelson is cheap on both DS and SS tonight. He should be able to reach value on both of those sites. Nikola Vucevic has a tough matchup against Gortat, he’s probably the one Magic starter that I will not be considering tonight.

Victor Oladipo – The combination of Oladipo in the starting lineup and Afflalo being out with an injury should mean huge minutes for the explosive young rookie. Oladipo should play close to 40 minutes tonight and I will take 40 minutes of his upside any day of the week. He’s one of my top plays across the board tonight.

Tobias Harris – In the two games since the Davis buyout, Harris has put up 35 and 42 FP’s. He has really stepped up on both ends of the floor. Tonight he will be matched up against Trevor Booker who is a great rebounder, but not a great defender. If his price is still affordable on the site you are playing on, don’t hesitate to use him tonight.

Washington

The Wizards are big favorites tonight against the Magic. They will be without Nene Hilario for the next 6 weeks which means Trevor Booker will fill in as the starter. None of the DFS sites have adjusted his salary yet, so look for him to be one of the most popular value plays across the industry. He offers great value on pretty much every site tonight.

In addition to Booker, I think the rest of the starters are in play as well. The Magic are giving up 101.8 points per game this season and are ranked 14th or worse against all positions this season. Trevor Ariza and Bradley Beal makes nice upside plays at the wing. Marcin Gortat should play well too, he will likely see a few extra minutes with Nene out.

John Wall – Wall has been one of the best fantasy players in the league at home this season. He is averaging right around 40 FP’s per game. He has a great matchup against Jameer Nelson and he played well against them earlier in the season as he posted 16 points, 13 assists, and 4 rebounds in only 29 minutes of playing time.

Chicago at Atlanta

Vegas Line – Chicago -2, 187 Over/Under
Chicago Proj. Starters – Hinrich-Snell-Dunleavy-Boozer-Noah
Atlanta Proj. Starters – Teague-Korver-Carroll-Millsap-Brand

Chicago

The Bulls are 2 point favorites tonight against the Hawks in a game that features the lowest total of the night. The Hawks are a fairly fast paced team though, so we can give a small fantasy boost to the Bulls as a whole. Jimmy Butler is listed as a game-time decision for tonight’s game, if he isn’t able to suit up, give a nice fantasy boost to Mike Dunleavy, Tony Snell, and Taj Gibson. All three make pretty average fantasy plays tonight though.

Joakim Noah – Noah is the only Bulls’ player that I am heavily targeting tonight. He has a terrific matchup against a depleted Hawks’ frontcourt who will be missing Millsap, Ayon, and Antic. Noah faced this same team a few games ago and put up 59 FP’s. While it’s hard to expect a repeat performance out of him, I have him ranked as my top Center tonight. UPDATE: It is also Noah’s B-Day today. This could be a game for the ages.

Atlanta

As mentioned above, the Hawks will be without Paul Millsap, Gustavo Ayon, and Pero Antic tonight. That basically leaves the Bulls with Elton Brand and Mike Scott as their active bigs. The Hawks have announced that they will play small tonight which means Shelvin Mack will start at SG and Mike Scott will come off the bench.

This is not a great matchup for the Hawks. The Bulls are only giving up 92.3 points per game this season which is 2nd only to the Pacers. The Bulls are also one of the slowest paced teams in the league and are ranked 8th or better against all five positions on the floor in terms of fantasy points allowed. While I hate the matchup, Elton Brand and Mike Scott are in play due to sheer attrition.

Portland at Denver

Vegas Line – Portland -2.5, 214 Over/Under
Portland Proj. Starters – Lillard-Matthews-Batum-Aldridge-Lopez
Denver Proj. Starters – Foye-Fournier-Chandler-Faried-Mozgov

Portland

The Blazers face a Nuggets defense that is giving up 104.7 points per game which is the 3rd most in the NBA. This is a terrific matchup for the Blazers. They will be without LaMarcus Aldridge again tonight which really only boosts the production for everyone else on the floor. He is such a big part of their offense and rebounding that everyone gets a small fantasy boost with him out of the lineup.

Wesley Matthews is now the 2nd best scorer on this offense and will be facing one of the worst defenses in the league. That bodes well for him tonight. Nicolas Batum is also in play, he had a big game the other night. However, he is better served as a GPP play because he has trouble creating his own shot and often has games where he disappears defensively.

Damian Lillard – In the three games without Aldridge, Lillard has posted 42, 40, and 41 fantasy points. That’s not only consistent, but it’s incredible production for the price. Lillard is one of the top PG options tonight. He will have a solid matchup against either a hobbled Ty Lawson or Aaron Brooks who has never been known for his defense.

Robin Lopez – Right when I start to drink the Lopez Kool-Aid, he has his worst game in weeks against the Wolves. That said, he continues to make a strong fantasy play with Aldridge out and most people will be scared to take him after his subpar performance last game. I’m expecting Lopez to bounce back nicely here and post 30+ FP’s.

Thomas Robinson – Robinson is coming off of a career game in which he posted a huge double-double that equated to over 40 FP’s. It hasn’t been announced if he will step into the starting lineup, but either way he makes a nice punt option at PF. The Nuggets are not a great rebounding team and have struggled to defend the paint all season long.

Denver

The Nuggets also have a terrific matchup tonight. The Blazers are giving up 103.6 points per game this season. That means that this game features 2 of the 4 worst defenses in the league in terms of points allowed. This one should be a very high scoring game. Ty Lawson is listed as questionable for tonight, he will likely be a game-time decision and we probably won’t know his status until after the first game tips off. If he has to sit, Aaron Brooks would be a nice play on late swap sites.

The Nuggets are making a change to their starting lineup tonight. They will move J.J. Hickson to the bench and give Timofey Mozgov the start. This takes Hickson out of play, but makes Mozgov one of the top value plays in the industry. Randy Foye is an interesting play, but I like him more when Lawson is out of the lineup. Kenneth Faried has great splits at home and makes a nice GPP play tonight.

Timofey Mozgov – Mozgov is close to minimum salary on almost every fantasy site. If you aren’t spending up at Center, get Mozgov in your lineup. He has the potential to post 30+ fantasy points now that he is a starter.

Wilson Chandler – Chandler has struggled in his last two games, but maybe he will be able to get it going tonight against the Blazers. Chandler’s price is depressed across the board and this may be a great time to buy low on him. He put up 18/3/1/1 in their first meeting.