NBA Grind Down: Tuesday, January 28th
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down Article. Each day, we’ll break down all of the matchups with a focus on defense vs. position stats. The Grind Down shows you Vegas lines, defense stats and projected starting lineups for each and every game.
The analysis should point you in the right direction, but it is still up to you to decipher the information and make your own selections. Use this article to help you gain a better understanding of the matchups for the coming week and build from there. We have everything you could possibly need on our Daily Research console for you to be a successful daily fantasy player!
Note: Any Fantasy Point Average Listed Uses FanDuel Scoring. For more info on FanDuel’s NFL Scoring System, check out the scoring systems section of our FanDuel Review
Click ‘Stat Chart’ Buttons Below for Pop-Ups of Essential Game-Specific Statistics including Defense vs. Position and Pace
New Orleans at Cleveland
- Vegas Line – Cleveland -2.5, 194 Over/Under
- New Orleans Proj. Starters – Roberts-Gordon-Aminu-Davis-Ajinca
- Cleveland Proj. Starters – Irving-Miles-Deng-Thompson-Varejao
New Orleans
The Pelicans and Cavs are two of the slower paced teams in the league. They both average 95 possessions per game or less which is below the league average. The total for this game is set at 194 points, but that’s not extremely low. The Cavs have been very average defensively this season, they are ranked between 11th and 29th against every position.
Brian Roberts makes an interesting value play on sites where he is close to minimum salary. The Cavs have given up the 2nd most FP’s to PG’s this season and he should see around 30 minutes. Eric Gordon is also in play, he has picked up some of the play-making with Jrue out of the lineup.
- Anthony Davis – Davis is coming off one of his best games of the season. I like his matchup tonight against the Cavs, especially if Varejao ends up sitting out tonight’s game. Davis has such a length advantage that he should have no problem grabbing rebounds and blocks down low against Thompson and Co. Davis is the only player in the league that averages almost 10 FP’s per game from blocks and steals alone.
- Tyreke Evans – Evans has been a boom or bust type of player this season, but he has been streaky which helps us predict his fantasy value. He is coming off of a 47 fantasy point performance in their last game and I love his matchup against the second unit of the Cavs. His price is affordable across the board and he makes a solid play at the SG position.
Cleveland
The big question for the Cavs tonight is whether or not Anderson Varejao is going to play. Right now he is listed as a game-time decision, but luckily for us, this is the first game of the night so we will hear about his status before leagues lock. If Varejao ends up sitting out, give a nice fantasy boost to both Tristan Thompson and Tyler Zeller.
In addition to the bigs, I also like the matchup for Irving and the wings. Jarrett Jack and Dion Waiters are both cheap across the board and make very deep sleeper picks tonight. Luol Deng is also very much in play, he played 41 minutes in their last game and put up 18 and 10.
- Kyrie Irving – Home/Road splits typically affect first and second year players more than veterans, but that hasn’t been the case with Irving this season. He is averaging 10 more fantasy points per game at home than he has on the road. I like his matchup tonight against Roberts and will be using him in my lineups across the industry.
Orlando at Detroit
- Vegas Line – Detroit -7.5, 204 Over/Under
- Orlando Proj. Starters – Nelson-Oladipo-Afflalo-Harris-Davis
- Detroit Proj. Starters – Jennings-Caldwell-Pope-Smith-Monroe-Drummond
Orlando
The Magic’s road woes continue. They have lost their last 8 road games by an average of close to 15 points per game. They are 7.5 point underdogs tonight, but hopefully they can keep it competitive enough that the starters will get their full complement of minutes. Nikola Vucevic still hasn’t been cleared to play, so the Magic will roll out their small starting lineup once again. That could be trouble tonight against this massive front-court of the Pistons.
Assuming the Magic can keep this game close, there are a few favorable matchups that we can exploit. The Pistons have not defended any position particularly well this season. Victor Oladipo is a stat stuffer, he should play close to 40 minutes again and is one of my favorite SG’s tonight. Arron Afflalo is in a similar position, I think he will play well and easily top 25 FP’s. Jameer Nelson is also in play, Jennings has been one of the worst on-ball defenders this season.
Detroit
The Pistons have a nice matchup against the Magic and I fully expect them to take advantage of the much smaller Magic lineup. Josh Smith, Greg Monroe, and Andre Drummond will all have significant size advantages down low. All three have favorable matchups so look for the best value of the three and get them in your lineups. Brandon Jennings is also in play, he scored over 35 FP’s in their last meeting with the Magic.
- Greg Monroe – If I had to pick one of the bigs for the Pistons, it would probably be Monroe. Davis will likely get the start again at Center for the Magic which means Tobias Harris will be defending Monroe. I love that matchup. Monroe posted over 30 FP’s the other night and I expect him to top that mark again tonight.
Boston at New York
- Vegas Line – New York -5.5, 192 Over/Under
- Boston Proj. Starters – Rondo-Green-Wallace-Sullinger-Bass
- New York Proj. Starters – Felton-Prigioni-Shumpert-Anthony-Chandler
Boston
The Celtics will have Jerryd Bayless back for tonight’s game, but it sounds like they will stick with their same starting lineup. Having Bayless back hurts the value of Pressey, Wallace, and Johnson though as those 4 will all be fighting for minutes. Rajon Rondo is coming off of a season high 30 minutes, I expect him to see around that many minutes again tonight. His price is very mixed across the industry though, so only take him on sites where he is affordable.
The Knicks are a slow paced team that has played pretty good defense this season. Other than Rondo, I don’t love any of the matchups for the C’s. I think Jeff Green and Jared Sullinger both make decent GPP plays, but I have a hard time trusting them in my cash games.
New York
The Knicks are really hurting down low right now. They will be without Kenyon Martin, Amar’e Stoudemire, and Andrea Bargnani. That leaves a ton of minutes for Tyson Chandler. He is probably my favorite play across the board tonight, especially on both FanDuel and DraftKings. Other than Chandler, I think Carmelo Anthony is in play, he has been red hot and will have to help crash the glass with all of the injuries to the Knicks’ bigs.
San Antonio at Houston
- Vegas Line – Houston -1.5, 212 Over/Under
- San Antonio Proj. Starters – Parker-Belinelli-Ginobili-Diaw-Duncan
- Houston Proj. Starters – Beverley-Harden-Parsons-Jones-Howard
San Antonio
The Spurs travel to Houston to take on the Rockets in what should be one of the faster-paced games of the night. This looks like a great game to target from a fantasy perspective, but the Spurs are in the middle of a 3 games in 4 nights stretch and you never really know what Coach Pop is going to do.
The Rockets have actually picked up their defense of late. In the last 15 days, they are only below average at defending PF’s. I think Tony Parker makes a nice play here, but he does have a tough matchup against Patrick Beverley who is a very solid defender. Manu Ginobili and Marco Belinelli are also both in play. With Kawhi and Green both out, they should both see a nice boost in fantasy value.
- Tim Duncan – Duncan has scored over 27 fantasy points in each of his last 11 games and has a great matchup against Terrence Jones tonight. Duncan is playing at an extremely high level and should put together another one of his classic Duncan stat lines (something like 18 and 13 isn’t out of the question).
Houston
The Rockets are expected to be one of the highest scoring teams of the night, but if you look at the Spurs DvP rankings, you would think otherwise. The Spurs are ranked 9th or better against every position on the floor except for PG’s. Coach Pop is so good at taking away opponent’s best players and I really think he will try to frustrate James Harden. For that reason, I will be avoiding Harden tonight.
Terrence Jones is cheap on a couple of sites tonight (specifically DK & SS) and makes a nice value play. Dwight Howard should have a nice size advantage down low, but he is a bit too risky to trust in cash games. Chandler Parsons makes a nice cash game play.
Memphis at Portland
- Vegas Line – Portland -4.5, 196.5 Over/Under
- Memphis Proj. Starters – Conley-Lee-Prince-Randolph-Gasol
- Portland Proj. Starters – Lillard-Matthews-Batum-Aldridge-Lopez
Memphis
The Grizzlies travel to Portland to take on the Blazers. The total for this game is set at 196 points which is very low for a Blazers home game. That says a lot about the pace of play of the Grizzlies and their ability to establish their style of play on opponents.
The Blazers have defended PF’s well this season, but have been pretty average against the other 4 positions. Courtney Lee continues to make a nice punt option at SG as long as Tony Allen is out. Mike Conley makes an interesting play at PG as the Blazers are ranked 25th at defending that position this season.
- Marc Gasol – This is the first time since Marc’s return from his injury that I will be targeting him. His price is very affordable across the board and he should top 30 minutes as long as this game stays close. I like the matchup against Lopez and think that he will have a bigger role in the offense as his matchup is much more favorable than Randolph’s.
Portland
The Blazers are in a tough position tonight. The Grizzlies are constantly holding teams well below their season average. For an example, they held the Rockets to 87 and 81 points in back to back games against them. I expect the Grizzlies to try to slow the pace of this game down as well. That really hurts the value of the Blazers. Just look at the Grizzlies DvP rankings over the last 15 days (with Gasol back) and you will agree that the Blazers are an easy team to avoid tonight.