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NBA Grind Down: Tuesday, January 3rd

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2017-01-04 03:08:27

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Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.

Minnesota Timberwolves at Philadelphia 76ers – 7:00 PM ET

Minnesota Timberwolves Philadelphia 76ers
minnesotanba Vegas Total 203.0 philadelphianba Vegas Total 203.0
Vegas Spread -4.5 Vegas Spread 4.5
Team Total 103.8 Team Total 99.3
Pace +/- 0.5 Pace +/- -1.6
Proj. Starter Ricky Rubio Zach LaVine Andrew Wiggins Gorgui Dieng Karl-Anthony Towns Proj. Starter T.J. McConnell Gerald Henderson Robert Covington Ersan Ilyasova Joel Embiid
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 21 17 25 14 25 DvP 21 10 6 5 17
DRPM 0.09 -0.41 2.19 0.08 0.95 DRPM 0.76 -2.92 -2.26 2.81 -1.80

Minnesota Timberwolves

The Wolves have been a disappointment this season, but head to Philadelphia for what should be one of the most entertaining games in the slate. Karl-Anthony Towns and Joel Embiid are going to be two of the best big men in the league for a long time and I can’t wait to see them square off tonight. The Wolves enter the game as 4.5-point favorites with an implied total of 103.8 points. This is a favorable matchup for fantasy production, as the Sixers are ranked 21st or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential this season.

Ricky Rubio has seen a massive spike in playing time over the last month of play. In fact, all of the starters have. He should see minutes in the mid-30s tonight against a Sixers’ defense that is ranked 21st in fantasy points allowed to point guards. Rubio is a strong play in all formats. Zach LaVine has been one of the most inconsistent fantasy performers this season, but he has 40-minute type of upside against the Sixers. I will have a ton of LaVine shares in tournaments and I don’t mind him as a cash game play on FanDuel. Andrew Wiggins should garner a lot of ownership at small forward. While Robert Covington is the best defender that the Sixers have, Wiggins playing time and shot volume are hard to pass up. Gorgui Dieng is a safe play at power forward, although it’s surprisingly a very deep position tonight. Karl-Anthony Towns is averaging 41.1 fantasy points with a true usage rate of 27.2% this season. He does have better splits at home, but I’m willing to overlook that in a matchup against the Sixers’ frontcourt.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Ricky Rubio $5,900 $5,800 0.78 31.3 0.7 24.5 2.7 17.4% 2.0% 21 0.09
Zach LaVine $6,500 $6,600 0.78 37.6 0.8 29.2 -3.7 23.1% -2.7% 17 -0.41
Andrew Wiggins $6,900 $7,200 0.84 36.7 1.0 30.7 6.7 27.5% 1.2% 25 2.19
Gorgui Dieng $5,600 $5,700 0.78 32.9 4.1 25.8 2.8 15.2% -1.3% 14 0.08
Karl-Anthony Towns $9,300 $9,900 1.16 35.3 0.2 41.1 -0.2 27.2% -2.7% 25 0.95

Elite Plays – Ricky Rubio, Andrew Wiggins (FD), Zach LaVine (FD), Karl-Anthony Towns (FD)

Secondary Plays – Gorgui Dieng, Andrew Wiggins (DK), Zach LaVine (DK), Karl-Anthony Towns (DK)

Philadelphia 76ers

The Sixers are tied with the Nets for the fewest number of wins of any team in the NBA this season. They have a chance to pass the Nets tonight with a win over the Wolves. The Sixers will be playing short-handed, but they are only listed as 4.5-point underdogs. Joel Embiid is expected to play tonight, but the Sixers will be without both Sergio Rodriguez and Richaun Holmes. Philadelphia’s implied total of 99.3 points may not seem like much, but it is actually slightly higher than their season average.

With Jerryd Bayless out for the season and Sergio Rodriguez out for tonight’s game, T.J. McConnell is going to see all of the minutes that he can handle. In his spot start on Saturday, he played 36 minutes and finished with 29 fantasy points. He is my favorite value play in the slate and I plan to be overweight on my exposure to him compared to the field. Gerald Henderson is expected to play tonight, which means Nik Stauskas will head back to the bench. If I’m taking a shot on either player in tournaments, I’d still rather use Stauskas. Robert Covington is a wildly inconsistent fantasy option, but Andrew Wiggins has a Defensive Real Plus-Minus (DRPM) of -2.26 this season. Covington deserves a look in tournaments. Ersan Ilyasova has really played well recently and is slightly underpriced on DraftKings. Joel Embiid is averaging 1.34 fantasy points per minute this season with a true usage rate of 34.5%. Dollar for dollar, I prefer him over Karl-Anthony Towns, but I plan to have exposure to both tonight in tournaments.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
T.J. McConnell $4,600 $4,300 0.77 20.4 8.1 15.7 2.2 19.2% 0.3% 21 0.76
Gerald Henderson $3,500 $3,200 0.64 24.6 0.6 15.8 -5.9 17.4% -1.4% 10 -2.92
Robert Covington $5,100 $5,200 0.74 29.5 2.7 21.7 -0.8 18.0% -1.2% 6 -2.26
Ersan Ilyasova $6,100 $5,300 0.89 27.1 4.2 24.2 8.8 21.1% -0.7% 5 2.81
Joel Embiid $7,200 $7,500 1.34 24.8 3.9 33.1 6.3 34.5% 4.1% 17 -1.80
Jahlil Okafor $4,600 $4,500 0.88 22.9 -1.1 20.1 -4.5 21.8% 1.2% 17 N/A

Elite Plays – T.J. McConnell, Joel Embiid

Secondary Plays – Robert Covington (GPP), Ersan Ilyasova (DK)

Indiana Pacers at Detroit Pistons – 7:30 PM ET

Indiana Pacers Detroit Pistons
indiananba Vegas Total 204.5 detroitnba Vegas Total 204.5
Vegas Spread 5.0 Vegas Spread -5.0
Team Total 99.8 Team Total 104.8
Pace +/- -2.6 Pace +/- 1.4
Proj. Starter Jeff Teague Glenn Robinson Paul George Thaddeus Young Myles Turner Proj. Starter Reggie Jackson Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Marcus Morris Jon Leuer Andre Drummond
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 25 4 4 5 8 DvP 18 21 16 25 15
DRPM -1.18 0.54 0.45 1.34 1.89 DRPM 0.18 -1.10 -0.30 1.16 2.00

Indiana Pacers

The Pacers are looking for their third win in a row tonight, but they have a tough task ahead of them. The Pistons have been stingy on the defensive end of the floor, holding their opponents to 98.7 points per game. That is the fourth best mark in the NBA. Detroit is also ranked seventh in defensive efficiency and ninth in rebounding differential. The Pacers are listed as 5-point underdogs with an implied total of only 99.8 points, which is the fourth lowest in the slate and 4.8 points below their season average.

The only position that the Pistons have struggled to defend is point guard. Jeff Teague rolled his ankle on Sunday, but was eventually able to return to the game. He is listed as questionable for tonight’s contest, but would make a great GPP target if he’s able to suit up. If Teague is ruled out, Monta Ellis and Aaron Brooks would become intriguing value plays. Thaddeus Young also deserves a mention, as he has scored at least 26 fantasy points in five of his last seven games.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Jeff Teague $7,900 $7,100 1.04 32.1 1.2 33.5 3.0 26.6% -2.4% 25 -1.18
Glenn Robinson $3,700 $3,600 0.57 22.3 3.2 12.7 5.0 12.5% -1.2% 4 0.54
Paul George $7,800 $7,900 1.00 35.9 -1.1 36.0 1.5 26.8% 1.6% 4 0.45
Thaddeus Young $5,200 $5,500 0.75 31.4 3.0 23.6 0.8 16.3% 1.7% 5 1.34
Myles Turner $6,600 $6,500 1.04 29.6 1.9 30.7 2.1 19.4% 0.1% 8 1.89
Monta Ellis $4,000 $3,700 0.64 29.6 -14.0 19.1 -8.1 17.6% -1.7% 4 N/A

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – TBD

Detroit Pistons

The Pistons have lost seven of their last ten games and would not make the playoffs if the regular season ended today. They feel like a playoff team, but just can’t seem to get anything going offensively. They are ranked 27th in points scored per game at 98.8. The good news is that they draw a favorable matchup tonight at home. They get to face a Pacers’ defense that is ranked 20th in points allowed per game and 27th in rebounding differential. Detroit has an implied total of 104.8 points, which is the fifth highest in the slate and six points above their season average.

Reggie Jackson is one of my favorite plays on the board tonight. He finally appears to be off his minutes restriction, as he has played at least 32 minutes in each of his last three games. He draws a favorable matchup against the Pacers and his price has yet to reflect the recent boost in playing time. Point guard is always a stacked position, but I really like the idea of going with the two great values in Jackson and T.J. McConnell. I have been targeting Jon Leuer basically every night since he entered the starting lineup. He has scored at least 21 fantasy points in eight of his last nine games and should see 30+ minutes in an exploitable matchup against Thaddeus Young. Tobias Harris has seen a nice usage boost playing with the second unit and is worth a look in all formats tonight, assuming he comes off the bench again. Andre Drummond grades out as an excellent tournament play. He is considerably better at home and the Pacers have the fourth worst rebounding differential in the NBA.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Reggie Jackson $6,100 $6,000 0.89 27.7 5.0 24.7 7.9 30.7% -1.0% 18 0.18
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope $5,700 $5,600 0.74 33.7 2.5 25.0 1.9 20.3% -1.7% 21 -1.10
Marcus Morris $4,300 $4,200 0.68 31.6 -4.4 21.6 -6.3 19.7% -0.9% 16 -0.30
Jon Leuer $4,800 $4,800 0.81 27.3 3.8 22.2 0.3 17.0% -1.3% 25 1.16
Andre Drummond $7,700 $7,300 1.17 30.2 2.1 35.3 2.0 22.3% 5.0% 15 2.00
Tobias Harris $6,000 $6,200 0.81 32.7 2.0 26.3 5.3 21.4% 0.4% 25 N/A

Elite Plays – Reggie Jackson, Jon Leuer, Tobias Harris (GPP), Andre Drummond (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Tobias Harris (Cash), Andre Drummond (Cash)

Utah Jazz at Boston Celtics – 7:30 PM ET

Utah Jazz Boston Celtics
utahnba Vegas Total 200.0 bostonnba Vegas Total 200.0
Vegas Spread 5.5 Vegas Spread -5.5
Team Total 97.3 Team Total 102.8
Pace +/- -0.1 Pace +/- -5.5
Proj. Starter Shelvin Mack Rodney Hood Gordon Hayward Derrick Favors Rudy Gobert Proj. Starter Isaiah Thomas Avery Bradley Jae Crowder Amir Johnson Al Horford
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 17 5 26 22 24 DvP 2 3 3 1 3
DRPM -3.15 -2.31 1.26 1.07 2.10 DRPM -0.77 0.96 0.44 2.13 4.79

Utah Jazz

The Jazz picked up a win in Philadelphia last night to improve to 22-13 on the season. The craziest part is that their optimal starting lineup has played a total of 12 minutes together this season. George Hill has had some bad luck with injuries and apparently had a gash in his mouth that he could put his finger through. One of the Jazz beat writers said that he looks like he was on the losing end of a fight or two. Hill is not expected to play tonight and Dante Exum has already been ruled out. The Jazz come into the game as 5.5-point underdogs against the Celtics, who are ranked right around the league average in points allowed per game and defensive efficiency.

Shelvin Mack was listed as an elite play in yesterday’s Grind Down and I really wish all of that late breaking news didn’t happen because it took me off of Mack and onto guys like Michael Carter-Williams, Malcolm Brogdon, and Jordan McRae. Mack finished the game with 25 fantasy points in 32 minutes of action. He should see a similar number of minutes tonight against Isaiah Thomas, who has one of the worst DRPM’s of any player in the entire NBA. I do prefer T.J. McConnell over Mack, but both are great values. Rodney Hood has not played well in the last few weeks and Avery Bradley has been known as a shut down defender in his career. Gordon Hayward also draws a tough individual matchup, but his increased usage with George Hill out makes him a borderline elite play. I’m not sure what happened with Derrick Favors last night, but I’m a little concerned about using him in the second half of a back-to-back. The best frontcourt target here is Rudy Gobert, who has scored at least 32 fantasy points in ten of his last 11 games.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Shelvin Mack $4,200 $4,900 0.64 23.6 2.0 15.2 -0.5 22.0% -0.7% 17 -3.15
Rodney Hood $4,600 $4,800 0.76 28.9 -0.5 22.1 -2.0 23.6% 2.3% 5 -2.31
Gordon Hayward $8,000 $8,000 1.02 35.2 -1.4 36.0 1.8 27.9% -1.9% 26 1.26
Derrick Favors $4,800 $4,900 0.90 21.3 1.0 19.1 -1.9 20.9% -0.7% 22 1.07
Rudy Gobert $7,500 $7,300 1.00 33.0 3.1 33.0 5.5 14.4% 1.8% 24 2.10
Joe Ingles $3,800 $4,000 0.68 19.6 2.4 13.3 -2.3 15.7% -1.0% 26 N/A

Elite Plays – Shelvin Mack (FD), Gordon Hayward, Rudy Gobert

Secondary Plays – Shelvin Mack (DK), Derrick Favors, Rodney Hood

Boston Celtics

The Celtics have won seven of their last ten games and currently sit in third place in the Eastern Conference standings. While they may be favored tonight against the Jazz, this is arguably the worst matchup in all of fantasy basketball. The Jazz play at the slowest pace of any team in the NBA and are ranked first in points allowed per game and third in defensive efficiency. The Celtics have an implied total of only 102.8 points, which is 3.5 points below their season average. This would typically be a good spot to fade Boston as a whole, but there are two intriguing plays thanks to DraftKings and their dynamic pricing. Isaiah Thomas is only $7,400 and Avery Bradley is only $5,900. Is the discount big enough to make them viable plays tonight? They are certainly intriguing, but I still see them as secondary options at their respective positions.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Isaiah Thomas $8,100 $7,400 1.18 33.5 1.3 39.6 4.5 34.8% -0.7% 2 -0.77
Avery Bradley $6,500 $5,900 0.89 34.9 -2.9 31.2 5.3 22.4% 7.6% 3 0.96
Jae Crowder $5,000 $4,900 0.77 31.5 0.7 24.2 0.1 16.5% -2.0% 3 0.44
Amir Johnson $4,000 $3,800 0.80 20.1 0.9 16.0 1.1 14.7% -1.4% 1 2.13
Al Horford $7,200 $6,200 1.04 32.9 -1.4 34.2 -9.6 22.9% 0.1% 3 4.79
Marcus Smart $4,600 $4,400 0.75 29.8 1.4 22.2 0.4 19.9% -2.6% 2 N/A

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Isaiah Thomas, Avery Bradley

Toronto Raptors at San Antonio Spurs – 8:30 PM ET

Toronto Raptors San Antonio Spurs
torontonba Vegas Total 208.5 sanantonionba Vegas Total 208.5
Vegas Spread 5.5 Vegas Spread -5.5
Team Total 101.5 Team Total 107.0
Pace +/- -2.6 Pace +/- -0.8
Proj. Starter Kyle Lowry DeMar DeRozan DeMarre Carroll Pascal Siakam Jonas Valanciunas Proj. Starter Tony Parker Danny Green Kawhi Leonard LaMarcus Aldridge Pau Gasol
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 7 19 2 1 2 DvP 12 1 12 16 16
DRPM -0.76 1.09 1.06 0.57 1.48 DRPM 0.44 -2.16 0.40 1.50 0.08

Toronto Raptors

The Raptors are getting a lot of love from the oddsmakers tonight. There are very few teams that are only listed as 5.5-point underdogs when they go into San Antonio to take on the Spurs. While I like their chances to keep the game close, this is one of the worst matchups in the slate. The Spurs are ranked fifth or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential this season. To make matters worse, San Antonio also plays at the league’s fifth slowest pace. The Raptors have an implied total of only 101.5 points, which is the seventh lowest in the slate and 9.7 points below their season average. While I’m not a big fan of the spot as a whole, Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan are both worth a look in tournaments on FanDuel. Their prices are affordable and the Raptors will need a big game from both players if they are going to keep this one close.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Kyle Lowry $8,000 $8,400 1.07 37.2 1.9 40.0 9.8 27.1% 3.3% 7 -0.76
DeMar DeRozan $7,900 $8,100 1.13 35.4 1.0 40.0 0.1 34.1% -0.3% 19 1.09
DeMarre Carroll $3,500 $3,600 0.68 25.2 -4.2 17.2 -2.3 15.5% -0.4% 2 1.06
Pascal Siakam $3,600 $3,100 0.66 18.2 0.8 11.9 0.0 12.3% -2.6% 1 0.57
Jonas Valanciunas $5,400 $4,800 0.95 26.8 -3.0 25.6 -5.3 18.6% -2.9% 2 1.48
Patrick Patterson $4,000 $3,800 0.64 28.4 -7.5 18.2 -11.7 12.4% 2.7% 1 N/A

Elite Plays – NONE

Secondary Plays – Kyle Lowry, DeMar DeRozan

San Antonio Spurs

The Spurs have won eight of their last ten games and have the second best record in the NBA. Tonight’s contest against the Raptors is interesting for potential fantasy production because on the one hand, the game should stay close and starters should see a boost in minutes, but on the other hand, these are two of the top defensive teams in the league. I suppose calling the Raptors a top defensive team is a bit of an exaggeration, but they are ranked 11th in points allowed per game and sixth in fantasy points allowed per game. Vegas isn’t overly concerned about the matchup though, as San Antonio currently has the second highest implied total in the slate at 107 points.

Tony Parker has played well recently, but most of the increase in fantasy production can be attributed to Kawhi Leonard missing a couple of games. With Leonard back in the mix, there is no need to target Parker tonight, especially since Reggie Jackson and T.J. McConnell are in such great spots at point guard. Leonard is my favorite play here, as he could end up playing minutes in the upper-30s tonight. DeMarre Carroll is a decent defender, but injuries have taken their toll on his effectiveness on that end of the floor. I consider Leonard an elite play in all formats tonight. LaMarcus Aldridge basically set the DFS world on fire on Saturday when he took three shot attempts against his former team at home in a game where Leonard didn’t play. I’m still tilting about it and can’t bring myself to roster him tonight.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Tony Parker $4,500 $4,800 0.75 25.7 1.9 19.3 9.1 24.4% 7.6% 12 0.44
Danny Green $3,800 $3,900 0.61 26.2 4.6 16.0 5.4 12.6% 2.0% 1 -2.16
Kawhi Leonard $8,300 $8,500 1.17 33.3 -5.2 39.1 -15.3 29.3% -3.1% 12 0.40
LaMarcus Aldridge $7,900 $7,600 0.96 32.4 2.8 31.1 5.3 23.3% -4.7% 16 1.50
Pau Gasol $6,500 $6,100 1.04 26.8 3.1 27.8 2.3 21.3% 1.2% 16 0.08
Patty Mills $3,700 $3,700 0.81 22.6 -3.0 18.4 -7.3 21.8% -0.6% 12 N/A

Elite Plays – Kawhi Leonard

Secondary Plays – LaMarcus Aldridge

Washington Wizards at Dallas Mavericks – 8:30 PM ET

Washington Wizards Dallas Mavericks
washingtonnba Vegas Total 200.0 dallasnba Vegas Total 200.0
Vegas Spread -2.0 Vegas Spread 2.0
Team Total 101.0 Team Total 99.0
Pace +/- -5.4 Pace +/- 0.4
Proj. Starter John Wall Bradley Beal Otto Porter Markieff Morris Marcin Gortat Proj. Starter Deron Williams Wesley Matthews Dorian Finney-Smith Harrison Barnes Dirk Nowitzki
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
DvP 1 11 5 11 14 DvP 6 12 8 26 12
DRPM -0.65 0.17 0.54 -0.82 0.21 DRPM -0.35 -1.08 1.24 1.45 1.25

Washington Wizards

The Wizards fell short to the Rockets last night in Houston and now have a quick turnaround tonight. They draw a mediocre matchup against the Mavericks, who aren’t a particularly good defensive team, but they play at such a slow pace that they are ranked fifth in points allowed per game. Washington comes into the contest as 2-point favorites with an implied total of only 101 points. In general, I like to weigh the home team’s pace a bit heavier than the road team’s pace and if that’s the case tonight, the Wizards could see five or six fewer possessions than they are used to.

John Wall has been on a tear for over a month now, but his price has finally caught up to his production. He is now $9,600 on FanDuel and $10,600 on DraftKings. You can still make an argument for him in tournaments, but point guard is such a deep position that I don’t plan to have very much exposure to Wall in a pace-down game. Bradley Beal and Otto Porter are pretty easy fades as well, as both players are priced at a premium right now. Markieff Morris is always on my radar in tournaments, but I want no part of him in a cash game setting. Marcin Gortat makes the most sense here. The Mavericks are the worst rebounding team in the NBA and are planning to start Dirk Nowitkzi at center. I will gladly take my chances with Gortat and he should be lower owned than usual given all of the other options at his position.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
John Wall $9,600 $10,600 1.25 36.2 -0.3 45.3 4.5 35.0% -0.2% 1 -0.65
Bradley Beal $6,800 $6,600 0.91 34.3 -7.6 31.3 -3.9 26.2% 1.9% 11 0.17
Otto Porter $5,600 $6,300 0.83 33.7 -1.4 27.8 -6.6 15.2% 0.8% 5 -0.82
Markieff Morris $4,900 $5,200 0.76 31.2 -4.6 23.9 -2.8 19.9% 0.7% 11 0.21
Marcin Gortat $6,100 $6,500 0.83 35.6 1.9 29.7 6.2 13.9% 3.4% 14 4.03

Elite Plays – Marcin Gortat

Secondary Plays – John Wall, Markieff Morris (GPP)

Dallas Mavericks

The Mavericks have won four of their last ten games, which may be their best stretch of the season. It’s sad, but they are a team that clearly needs to enter the rebuilding mode. While I’m not high on the Mavericks in the future, I do like their prospects tonight against the Wizards, who are ranked 19th or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. The Mavericks come into the game with an implied total of 99 points, which is 3.9 points above their season average.

Deron Williams is dealing with an illness, but is expected to play tonight. I have used him as much as anyone over the last month of play, but will be fading him tonight. His minutes are down recently and the Wizards are ranked sixth in fantasy points allowed to point guards. Wesley Matthews is always a viable cash game option given his minute upside and his shot volume. Harrison Barnes is my favorite play here, although we do have to pay a premium for him. The Wizards are one of the worst teams in the NBA at defending power forwards and Barnes plays almost as many minutes per game as anyone in the NBA. Seth Curry is an intriguing GPP play off the bench. He should see minutes in the mid-20s with J.J. Barea still out.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L3 +/- FP/Game L3 +/- True Usage L3 +/- DvP DRPM
Deron Williams $6,100 $5,800 0.85 30.1 -4.6 25.7 -5.8 27.4% -0.5% 6 -0.35
Wesley Matthews $5,600 $5,600 0.69 35.6 -4.4 24.6 1.3 21.3% 1.6% 12 -1.08
Dorian Finney-Smith $3,500 $3,100 0.48 22.7 3.3 11.0 -2.2 11.9% -0.9% 8 1.24
Harrison Barnes $6,800 $6,700 0.82 36.1 -4.2 29.8 1.9 25.5% 1.9% 26 1.45
Dirk Nowitzki $5,300 $4,100 0.90 22.3 -3.1 20.2 -6.6 28.2% 4.7% 12 1.25
Dwight Powell $4,400 $3,900 0.87 21.2 -0.1 18.4 6.3 15.4% 2.4% 26 N/A
Seth Curry $4,300 $4,200 0.71 26.7 -2.4 18.9 1.1 19.9% -1.2% 12 N/A

Elite Plays – Harrison Barnes

Secondary Plays – Deron Williams, Wesley Matthews, Seth Curry (GPP)

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious