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NBA Grind Down: Tuesday, March 7th

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2017-03-08 02:04:35

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.

Legend & FAQ

Portland Trail Blazers at Oklahoma City Thunder – 8:00 PM ET

Portland Trail Blazers Oklahoma City Thunder
portlandnba Vegas Total 222.0 oklahomacitynba Vegas Total 222.0
Vegas Spread 6.0 Vegas Spread -6.0
Team Total 108.0 Team Total 114.0
Pace +/- 1.9 Pace +/- 0.8
Proj. Starter Damian Lillard C.J. McCollum Maurice Harkless Noah Vonleh Jusuf Nurkic Proj. Starter Russell Westbrook Victor Oladipo Andre Roberson Domantas Sabonis Steven Adams
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 25 7 21 13 15 Adj. DvP 13 25 16 22 21
DRPM -0.02 0.78 2.14 1.37 1.74 DRPM -2.03 -2.11 0.76 0.88 2.30

Portland Trail Blazers

The Blazers have lost six of their last ten games, but are only two games behind the Nuggets for the eighth and final seed in the West. They really need to start winning some games on the road and they’ll have a chance to do just that tonight against the Thunder. From a fantasy perspective, this is a mediocre matchup. On the season, Oklahoma City is ranked 20th in points allowed per game and tenth in defensive efficiency. The Blazers are listed as 6-point underdogs with an implied total of 108 points, which is the fourth highest implied total in the slate. I should note that these two teams squared off last week and the game played out as expected with the Blazers winning at home 114-109.

Damian Lillard has scored at least 40 fantasy points in each of his last five games, averaging 46 fantasy points in his last five games. He has a nice track record against the Thunder and as we know, Oklahoma City struggles to defend point guards in general. C.J. McCollum is a player that I tend to take an underweight approach on most nights and that will be the case again tonight. He will likely draw the defense of Andre Roberson, who has a DRPM of 2.14 this season. Maurice Harkless is coming off of a strong five-game stretch, averaging 35 minutes and 27 fantasy points per contest. He stands out as an elite value on FanDuel at a price of only $4,800. Suddenly, the Mason Plumlee / Jusuf Nurkic trade isn’t looking so bad for the Blazers. In his last five games, Nurkic is averaging 35 fantasy points per contest. The funny part is that he is seeing more minutes than Plumlee ever did. Nurkic scored 51 fantasy points against the Thunder last week and is one of my favorite plays at center tonight. Al-Farouq Aminu and Allen Crabbe are decent values if you are looking for a couple of contrarian plays.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Damian Lillard $9,600 $8,800 1.12 36.0 0.6 40.2 6.4 32.2% 1.6% 25 -0.02
C.J. McCollum $7,200 $7,100 0.98 34.8 2.7 34.0 -1.9 27.9% -1.8% 7 0.78
Maurice Harkless $4,800 $5,300 0.71 29.5 5.7 21.1 6.4 15.6% -2.8% 21 2.14
Noah Vonleh $3,500 $3,000 0.68 13.6 3.9 9.2 1.6 13.4% -1.8% 13 1.37
Jusuf Nurkic $6,700 $6,800 1.02 19.3 12.3 19.6 14.9 22.9% -1.8% 15 1.74
Al-Farouq Aminu $5,400 $5,400 0.77 29.1 0.2 22.4 1.7 15.7% 1.8% 13 N/A
Allen Crabbe $3,500 $3,600 0.57 28.3 -1.5 16.0 -3.3 14.4% -2.8% 7 N/A

Elite Plays – Damian Lillard, Jusuf Nurkic, Maurice Harkless (FD)

Secondary Plays – Maurice Harkless (DK), C.J. McCollum, Al-Farouq Amninu (GPP)

Oklahoma City Thunder

The Thunder have lost three games in a row and have dropped all the way down to the seventh seed in the West. They will try to bounce back tonight against the Blazers at home. This is one of the best possible matchups for fantasy production, as the Blazers play at a fast pace and are ranked 26th or worse in both points allowed per game and defensive efficiency. Oklahoma City comes into the game as 6-point favorites with an implied total of 114 points, which is the second highest in the slate and 7.9 points above their season average.

Russell Westbrook is coming off of a subpar outing against the Mavericks, yet he is still averaging 64 fantasy points in his last five games. In a three game slate, a Westbrook fade at home against a bad defense may not be the best approach. He is priced over $13,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings, but he is certainly worth the price if he puts up 65+ once again. Victor Oladipo went through shootaround this morning, but is listed as questionable once again. If he is unable to suit up, Westbrook would see a small boost and Doug McDermott could see 28-30 minutes off the bench. If Oladipo is active, we may want to fire him up in tournaments as long as he doesn’t have a minute restriction. Steven Adams’ playing time and fantasy production are both trending in the wrong direction. While I like his price on DraftKings, I would much rather use his teammate, Enes Kanter. Kanter is averaging 28 fantasy points in his last five games and should see minutes in the mid-20s tonight against a beatable Blazers’ frontcourt. This is also an interesting spot to buy back in on Taj Gibson, as he scored 33 fantasy points against the Blazers in their meeting last week.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Russell Westbrook $13,100 $13,400 1.66 34.8 2.1 57.9 6.1 46.1% 4.1% 13 -2.03
Victor Oladipo $6,000 $5,700 0.79 33.7 26.5 21.2% 25 -2.11
Andre Roberson $4,100 $3,700 0.59 30.5 -1.5 17.9 -3.2 10.4% -3.0% 16 0.76
Domantas Sabonis $3,500 $3,000 0.60 21.0 -8.3 12.6 -3.4 14.8% 1.0% 22 0.88
Steven Adams $5,700 $5,200 0.84 30.5 -3.5 25.5 -5.2 16.6% -0.5% 21 2.30
Enes Kanter $5,800 $5,700 1.14 21.8 2.3 24.8 3.6 25.9% 0.9% 22 N/A
Taj Gibson $4,200 $3,900 0.83 26.9 -3.3 22.4 -7.3 18.2% -2.2% 22 N/A
Doug McDermott $3,500 $3,500 0.60 25.0 6.2 15.0 -1.1 16.4% -4.1% 16 N/A

Elite Plays – Russell Westbrook, Enes Kanter

Secondary Plays – Taj Gibson, Steven Adams (DK), Doug McDermott (if Oladipo is out)

Los Angeles Lakers at Dallas Mavericks – 8:30 PM ET

Los Angeles Lakers Dallas Mavericks
lalakersnba Vegas Total 205.0 dallasnba Vegas Total 205.0
Vegas Spread 10.0 Vegas Spread -10.0
Team Total 97.5 Team Total 107.5
Pace +/- -5.1 Pace +/- 2.0
Proj. Starter D’Angelo Russell Nick Young Brandon Ingram Julius Randle Tarik Black Proj. Starter Yogi Ferrell Seth Curry Wesley Matthews Harrison Barnes Dirk Nowitzki
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 1 6 3 8 10 Adj. DvP 29 17 27 30 30
DRPM -1.56 -0.14 0.25 0.16 0.85 DRPM -0.88 -1.81 -2.78 -0.25 2.03

Los Angeles Lakers

The Lakers have lost seven games in a row and have dropped down to the second worst record in the NBA. They have little to play for at this point, but at least Luke Walton is finally playing his younger players a full complement of minutes. How frustrating was it when Luol Deng was playing 32 minutes a night? The Lakers draw an awful matchup tonight against the Mavericks and they have to face them in Dallas. On the season, the Mavericks are ranked 29th in pace of play and third in points allowed per game. The Lakers have the lowest implied total on the board (97.5 points) and the lowest projected point differential (-6.4) in the slate.

We have conflicting trends with the Lakers tonight. On the one hand, D’Angelo Russell and Julius Randle are finally starting to play 30+ minutes a night. On the other hand, they have the worst matchup in the slate and come into the game as double-digit underdogs. If this was a bigger slate, I would contemplate fading the Lakers altogether. However, with only three games to choose players from, we have to give strong consideration to both Russell and Randle. Over his last five games, Russell is averaging 33 fantasy points. He also draws a decent matchup against Yogi Ferrell, who has a DRPM of -1.56 this season. Randle will likely see a mix of defenders, as Harrison Barnes will start on him and Nerlens Noel could defend him coming off the bench. The main reason to like Randle here is his rebounding upside against the worst rebounding team in the NBA. Jordan Clarkson and Brandon Ingram are intriguing tournament plays, but they aren’t going to be a part of my core targets tonight.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
D’Angelo Russell $6,400 $7,000 0.99 27.1 5.6 26.9 7.0 29.7% 1.4% 1 -1.56
Nick Young $4,200 $4,000 0.73 26.2 -2.7 19.2 -5.4 19.0% 0.5% 6 -0.14
Brandon Ingram $3,700 $4,800 0.58 28.3 7.9 16.5 3.1 16.2% 0.2% 3 0.25
Julius Randle $6,200 $6,100 0.99 28.4 2.0 28.1 6.1 23.3% -2.1% 8 0.16
Tarik Black $3,500 $3,100 0.89 16.2 -0.5 14.4 -2.9 16.2% -0.2% 10 0.85
Jordan Clarkson $5,100 $5,200 0.78 27.5 1.2 21.5 4.6 23.7% 4.5% 1 N/A
Larry Nance $4,000 $3,600 0.83 22.0 -2.1 18.3 -3.3 13.7% -1.5% 8 N/A

Elite Plays – D’Angelo Russell (FD), Julius Randle

Secondary Plays – D’Angelo Russell (DK), Brandon Ingram (FD), Jordan Clarkson (GPP)

Dallas Mavericks

The Mavericks have won six of their last ten games and have climbed within two and a half games of the Nuggets. There is still a lot of basketball to be played over the next five weeks and they do face off against each other in the last week of the season. Dallas draws an excellent matchup tonight against the Lakers, who are ranked 27th in points allowed per game and 29th in defensive efficiency. The Mavericks come into the game as 10-point favorites with an implied total of 107.5 points, which gives them the highest projected point differential in the slate at +9.6.

As strange as it sounds, a Mavericks’ stack is viable tonight in both cash games and tournaments. Their team total is basically 10% higher than their season average, so we can give a sizable boost to their offense as a whole. Yogi Ferrell hasn’t blown any doors off recently, but is averaging 22 fantasy points in his last five games and should play around 30 minutes against the Lakers. I see him as an excellent tournament play and a borderline cash game target if you need the savings at point guard. Seth Curry has been on fire since the Mavericks waived Deron Williams. It’s crazy to think that he got a two-year deal for $6 million in the offseason, while Timofey Mozgov signed a four-year deal for $64 million. Curry should have another big outing tonight against the porous defense of the Lakers. Wesley Matthews has been quiet recently, but nobody is going to own him. I’ll have a couple of shares in tournaments. Harrison Barnes is one of three viable small forward targets in cash games and he has the best matchup of the bunch. Dirk Nowitzki never gets the ownership he deserves, which is just fine by me. I will gladly play him tonight against the Lakers, who are ranked dead last against both power forwards and centers this season. Nerlens Noel hasn’t played a lot when he has come off the bench. Despite the great matchup, he is more of a GPP flier than a viable cash game target.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Yogi Ferrell $5,100 $5,000 0.72 25.5 4.9 18.3 3.4 21.8% -2.5% 29 -0.88
Seth Curry $6,200 $6,600 0.74 29.0 6.0 21.5 11.1 20.3% 3.3% 17 -1.81
Wesley Matthews $5,200 $5,100 0.69 35.2 -3.2 24.3 -6.8 20.1% -4.5% 27 -2.78
Harrison Barnes $6,100 $6,400 0.82 35.8 -0.1 29.4 0.3 24.8% -0.1% 30 -0.25
Dirk Nowitzki $6,000 $5,800 0.98 26.4 1.8 25.8 1.3 24.3% -2.3% 30 2.03
Nerlens Noel $6,100 $5,600 1.02 20.2 4.3 20.6 2.3 18.1% -2.3% 30 N/A

Elite Plays – Seth Curry, Harrison Barnes, Dirk Nowitzki

Secondary Plays – Yogi Ferrell, Wesley Matthews (GPP), Nerlens Noel (GPP)

Washington Wizards at Phoenix Suns – 9:00 PM ET

Washington Wizards Phoenix Suns
washingtonnba Vegas Total 225.5 phoenixnba Vegas Total 225.5
Vegas Spread -4.5 Vegas Spread 4.5
Team Total 115.0 Team Total 110.5
Pace +/- 3.4 Pace +/- 0.6
Proj. Starter John Wall Bradley Beal Otto Porter Markieff Morris Marcin Gortat Proj. Starter Eric Bledsoe Devin Booker T.J. Warren Marquese Chriss Alex Len
Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C Opponent Rank PG SG SF PF C
Adj. DvP 26 27 8 26 11 Adj. DvP 4 10 15 28 12
DRPM -1.03 -2.13 -1.88 -0.26 1.00 DRPM -0.28 -0.70 1.22 1.94 1.68

Washington Wizards

The Wizards have won seven of their last ten games and are tied with the Celtics in the loss column (24). Two months ago, most people were writing the Wizards off and now they could end up as the two seed in the Eastern Conference. Washington draws an exploitable matchup tonight against the Suns, who are ranked third in pace of play and 29th in points allowed per game. The Wizards have an implied total of 115 points, which is the highest in the slate and seven points above their season average. To make the game even more enticing, it features a spread of only 4.5 points.

John Wall is having a career season, averaging 45.2 fantasy points per game with one of the highest true usage rates in the NBA. His price has been over $10,000 for quite some time now, but a matchup against the Suns may be worth the premium. The Suns are ranked 26th in adjusted DvP against point guards and Wall is sitting at a playable $10,200 on FanDuel. Bradley Beal is also an excellent play here, as the Suns haven’t fared any better against shooting guards. Beal’s price is up across the industry, but he is averaging 37 fantasy points in his last five games. Otto Porter and Markieff Morris are better GPP targets than cash game options. Of the two, I prefer Morris, who has been dreaming of ways to get revenge against his former team. This is also a revenge game of sorts for Marcin Gortat, but it’s hard to trust him after averaging only 24 minutes in his last five games. Bojan Bogdanovic has played well off the bench and should get plenty of open looks in an uptempo game against the Suns.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
John Wall $10,200 $11,000 1.23 36.7 0.5 45.2 -0.9 34.8% -1.4% 26 -1.03
Bradley Beal $8,000 $7,800 0.94 34.7 1.7 32.5 5.2 26.4% 0.0% 27 -2.13
Otto Porter $6,100 $6,400 0.83 33.8 -1.0 28.0 -4.0 15.0% -2.5% 8 -1.88
Markieff Morris $6,600 $6,500 0.85 32.1 0.7 27.3 0.2 20.6% -1.3% 26 -0.26
Marcin Gortat $6,200 $5,200 0.85 33.7 -9.2 28.8 -8.8 14.6% 3.6% 11 1.00
Bojan Bogdanovic $4,000 $4,900 0.75 26.7 -0.8 20.1 0.9 22.2% -1.3% 8 N/A

Elite Plays – John Wall, Bradley Beal, Markieff Morris (GPP)

Secondary Plays – Markieff Morris (Cash), Otto Porter (GPP), Marcin Gortat (DK), Bojan Bogdanovic

Phoenix Suns

The Suns have been a fun team to watch lately. They are riding a three-game winning streak and have a chance to extend that to four tonight against the Wizards. On paper, this appears to be an average matchup at best, but Vegas is expecting this game to shootout. Both teams have an implied total of 110.5 points, so if you are looking for a game to stack, this is it. As long as this game stays close, it should be a fantasy goldmine for players on both sides.

Eric Bledsoe has played well on a per-minute basis in his last five games, but his minutes have taken a dip thanks to the outstanding play of Tyler Ulis. I still see Bledsoe as a viable option in tournaments, but we can’t pay that price for a player that we can only project to play 30-32 minutes. Ulis is averaging 22 fantasy points in his last five games and he hit the game winner against the Celtics on Sunday. I’d love to target him in tournaments tonight, but the sites have been quick to adjust his salary. Devin Booker has been quiet in his last five games, but I’m willing to buy low on a high usage player in a potential shootout. The same can be said for T.J. Warren, who has scored at least 25 fantasy points in seven straight games. The one position that the Wizards have really struggled to defend is power forward. Marquese Chriss is an athletic young big man with great block and rebound upside. At $4,500 on FanDuel, I will have some shares of Chriss in tournaments. Alan Williams continues to play at a high level off the bench. Even though Alex Len is the starter in name, Williams is getting the bulk of the minutes at center. In his last five games, he is averaging 28 minutes and 34 fantasy points per contest. His FP/min of 1.21 is the 20th highest of any player in the NBA this season. He is basically a slightly more productive and consistent Kyle O’Quinn that is playing more minutes.

Notable Fantasy Players

Player FD Salary DK Salary FP/Min Minutes L5 +/- FP/Game L5 +/- True Usage L5 +/- DvP DRPM
Eric Bledsoe $8,500 $8,200 1.12 33.2 -2.2 37.2 0.1 30.4% -0.5% 4 -0.28
Devin Booker $6,000 $6,300 0.83 34.4 -2.1 28.5 -5.1 27.7% -5.2% 10 -0.70
T.J. Warren $5,600 $5,900 0.75 29.5 2.4 22.2 6.7 18.6% -2.1% 15 1.22
Marquese Chriss $4,500 $4,700 0.78 19.5 5.1 15.2 4.1 18.7% -2.5% 28 1.94
Alex Len $4,400 $3,400 0.91 19.6 -3.4 17.9 -2.7 16.8% 0.6% 12 1.68
Alan Williams $5,500 $6,700 1.21 11.0 17.1 13.3 20.6 20.4% -0.8% 12 N/A
Tyler Ulis $5,300 $4,600 0.80 10.6 10.9 8.5 14.1 22.5% -1.7% 4 N/A

Elite Plays – Devin Booker, T.J. Warren, Alan Williams

Secondary Plays – Eric Bledsoe (GPP), Marquese Chriss (GPP), Tyler Ulis (DK GPP)

About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious