NBA Grind Down: Tuesday, November 14th
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.
Vegas lines are broken down to show projected Implied Team Totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.
We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.
If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.
Boston Celtics at Brooklyn Nets – 7:30 PM ET
| Boston Celtics | Brooklyn Nets | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 206.5 |  | Vegas Total | 206.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | -7.0 | Vegas Spread | 7.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 106.8 | Implied Team Total | 99.8 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 6.6 | Pace Projection +/- | -2.5 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Kyrie Irving | Jaylen Brown | Jayson Tatum | Al Horford | Aron Baynes | Projected Starters | Spencer Dinwiddie | Allen Crabbe | DeMarre Carroll | Rondae Hollis-Jefferson | Timofey Mozgov | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 27 | 16 | 28 | 30 | 29 | DvP | 3 | 2 | 12 | 3 | 8 | |
| DRPM | -0.33 | -1.39 | 1.31 | -0.74 | 1.67 | DRPM | 0.20 | 0.50 | 0.67 | 2.99 | 3.01 | |
Happy Tuesday everyone. First off, big thanks to Allan Lem for filling in on the Grind Down yesterday. I had an amazing weekend with DB, Stevie, and a few others. We spent our Sunday at FanDuelVille in Jacksonville and watched the Jaguars squeeze out a win against the Chargers and then I got the opportunity to play TPC Sawgrass on Monday, which was amazing. The course was brutally difficult and I may or may not have dunked my first two tee shots in the water on 17, but I now have one fewer item on my bucket list. Before we get into the slate, I look forward to meeting anyone heading to Nashville this weekend for the RotoGrinders DRAFT party. If you are attending, make sure to come say what’s up. I always love meeting new people in DFS.
Boston Celtics
After losing the first two games of the season, the Celtics have reeled of 12 straight victories. They have the best record in the NBA and they don’t appear to be slowing down anytime soon. They draw the best possible matchup in all of fantasy basketball, as they face a Nets’ team that is ranked first in pace of play and dead last in points allowed per game. It helps that the game is being played in Brooklyn, as the spread (7.0) is a lot closer than it would have been in Boston. The Celtics have an implied total of 106.8 points, which is the second highest of the slate and 4.6 points above their season average.
Kyrie Irving basically missed two full games over the weekend, after suffering a facial fracture against the Hornets. He’s expected to wear a mask and be back in the lineup tonight. Assuming he doesn’t get hit in the face, we should expect him to see a full complement of minutes. His injury, recent minutes, and recent playing time are all working in our favor when it comes to ownership. He’s an elite tournament play and I wouldn’t rule him out in cash games either. Marcus Smart will head back to the bench tonight. He should resume his 28-30 minute role, which will make it difficult to reach value at his price point, even in a great matchup.
Now that Boston is fully healthy, we are going to see a lot of players that average between 26-30 minutes a game moving forward. This includes the likes of Smart, Jaylen Brown, Jayson Tatum, and Marcus Morris. They are all priced up a bit on DraftKings, but Brown and Tatum are both nice values on FanDuel. They also see the matchup bump against Brooklyn, as 28-30 minutes against the Nets is similar to 32-34 minutes against most teams. Terry Rozier remains an intriguing tournament play on DraftKings, but his price is steep for a player that we can’t rely on to see more than 25 minutes.
The Nets have one of the most beatable frontcourts in basketball. They are ranked 30th against power forwards, 29th against centers, and 25th in rebounding differential. This is a dream spot for Al Horford and Aron Baynes. Horford is viable in all formats, although I have my eye on another center in this slate at a similar price point. On sites like DraftKings and FantasyDraft, I don’t mind using my utility spot on a center and playing both Horford and Clint Capela. As far as Baynes go, this is an uptempo game against a Nets’ team that doesn’t have a traditional center that plays big minutes. I will be fading Baynes in hopes that Boston plays more small-ball lineups.
Notable Injuries
Kyrie Irving (Probable)
Boston Celtics Offense
Points Per Game: 102.2 (24 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 106.8 (2 of 6)
Projected Point Differential: 4.6 (1 of 6)
Matchup vs. Brooklyn Nets
Points Allowed Per Game: 114.5 (29 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.7 (24 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -4.0 (25 of 30)
Pace of Play: 107.7 (1 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L3 +/- | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | Opp. DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyrie Irving | $8,500 | $8,200 | $14,600 | 36.5 | -19.2 | 31.0 | -13.6 | 1.18 | 28.6% | 54.1% | 27 | -0.33 |
| Jaylen Brown | $6,200 | $6,700 | $14,400 | 26.6 | 1.8 | 32.0 | 1.7 | 0.83 | 18.7% | 52.9% | 16 | -1.39 |
| Jayson Tatum | $5,100 | $6,200 | $13,200 | 25.5 | -9.1 | 30.0 | -5.6 | 0.85 | 16.1% | 62.1% | 28 | 1.31 |
| Al Horford | $7,800 | $7,600 | $14,400 | 34.7 | -0.1 | 32.0 | 1.4 | 1.08 | 18.0% | 66.7% | 30 | -0.74 |
| Aron Baynes | $4,500 | $3,800 | $7,200 | 17.9 | 6.3 | 19.9 | 3.2 | 0.90 | 14.9% | 51.8% | 29 | 1.67 |
| Marcus Morris | $4,600 | $5,000 | $9,900 | 21.1 | -1.2 | 22.2 | 1.1 | 0.95 | 21.8% | 53.5% | N/A | N/A |
| Marcus Smart | $6,200 | $6,300 | $13,600 | 27.6 | 0.8 | 30.3 | 3.6 | 0.91 | 20.4% | 41.3% | N/A | N/A |
| Terry Rozier | $6,000 | $5,300 | $10,500 | 23.9 | 5.9 | 24.8 | 3.4 | 0.96 | 20.7% | 47.8% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Kyrie Irving, Jaylen Brown (FD), Jayson Tatum (FD), Al Horford
Secondary Plays – Jaylen Brown (DK), Jayson Tatum (DK), Marcus Morris, Marcus Smart, Terry Rozier (GPP)
Brooklyn Nets
These two teams play contrasting styles of basketball. The Nets push the pace and try to outscore teams in transition, while the Celtics slow the tempo and use their imposing defense in the half-court. In these situations, we should give a bump to the team playing up in pace and we should downgrade the team facing the stout defense. The Nets have an implied total of only 99.8 points, which is the second lowest on the board and 10.9 points below their season average.
While the matchup is far from ideal, the injury to D’Angelo Russell opens up minutes and usage in this Nets’ lineup. Spencer Dinwiddie has already been named the starter and should be locked into a 30-minute role tonight at point guards. He is averaging a fantasy point per minute this season and is one of the best value plays available tonight. For those of you that have been waiting patiently like I have, the DRPM numbers for this season have finally been released. As suspected, Kyrie Irving has made leaps and bounds defensively and it’s no surprise that all five of the Celtics’ starters have a positive DRPM.
Outside of Dinwiddie, I don’t see any of the Nets’ players are core targets in this three-game slate. Allen Crabbe, DeMarre Carroll, and Caris LeVert have all shown flashes at times this season, but the Celtics have some elite wing defenders. Rondae Hollis-Jefferson is our best bet in the frontcourt, but he is nearly priced out of consideration on FanDuel. It’s hard to pay $7,500 for a player that is averaging 28.5 fantasy points per game on the season. His price of $7,400 on DraftKings is much more palatable.
Notable Injuries
D’Angelo Russell (Out)
Jarrett Allen (Questionable)
Brooklyn Nets Offense
Points Per Game: 110.6 (4 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 99.8 (5 of 6)
Projected Point Differential: -10.9 (6 of 6)
Matchup vs. Boston Celtics
Points Allowed Per Game: 94.0 (1 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 95.4 (1 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 5.5 (2 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.6 (24 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L3 +/- | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | Opp. DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spencer Dinwiddie | $5,800 | $4,800 | $9,400 | 22.2 | -9.0 | 22.3 | -1.4 | 1.00 | 21.1% | 52.8% | 3 | 0.20 |
| Allen Crabbe | $4,900 | $4,600 | $8,900 | 19.4 | -2.2 | 25.7 | 1.0 | 0.75 | 15.8% | 54.1% | 2 | 0.50 |
| DeMarre Carroll | $6,200 | $5,800 | $12,600 | 28.3 | -4.3 | 28.7 | -2.1 | 0.99 | 17.4% | 57.0% | 12 | 0.67 |
| Rondae Hollis-Jefferson | $7,500 | $6,400 | $12,500 | 28.5 | 7.4 | 27.7 | 7.0 | 1.03 | 18.4% | 59.4% | 3 | 2.99 |
| Timofey Mozgov | $3,000 | $3,300 | $6,900 | 11.3 | 0.0 | 15.7 | -0.8 | 0.72 | 10.7% | 61.0% | 8 | 3.01 |
| Sean Kilpatrick | $3,800 | $3,400 | $6,500 | 8.0 | 0.5 | 8.8 | 2.2 | 0.90 | 25.9% | 36.1% | N/A | N/A |
| Caris LeVert | $5,400 | $4,500 | $8,800 | 21.3 | -3.3 | 26.3 | -4.4 | 0.81 | 18.0% | 44.1% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Spencer Dinwiddie
Secondary Plays – Rondae Hollis-Jefferson (DK)
Toronto Raptors at Houston Rockets – 8:00 PM ET
| Toronto Raptors | Houston Rockets | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 219.5 |  | Vegas Total | 219.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 6.5 | Vegas Spread | -6.5 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 106.5 | Implied Team Total | 113.0 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -0.1 | Pace Projection +/- | -0.3 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Kyle Lowry | DeMar DeRozan | C.J. Miles | Serge Ibaka | Jonas Valanciunas | Projected Starters | James Harden | Eric Gordon | Trevor Ariza | Ryan Anderson | Clint Capela | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 6 | 15 | 10 | 9 | 16 | DvP | 15 | 19 | 1 | 18 | 12 | |
| DRPM | 0.73 | -0.62 | 0.54 | -0.56 | 2.60 | DRPM | -0.02 | -2.57 | -0.33 | 0.01 | 0.50 | |
Toronto Raptors
The Raptors have been an afterthought in quite a few slates this season, but that won’t be the case tonight. They head to Houston to take on the Rockets in a game that features a total of 219.5 points. The next highest total tonight is the Celtics-Nets game at 206.5 points. Even though the Rockets have been stout defensively this season, I’m not putting a ton of stock into it. They have certainly improved in some areas, but this is still a team that doesn’t mind getting out into transition. The Raptors come into tonight’s game with an implied total of 106.5 points, which is the third highest of the slate.
Kyle Lowry hasn’t shot the ball as well from the floor this season, he isn’t creating as many turnovers, and his minutes are down. This has led to a decrease in fantasy production, yet he’s still priced at $7,700 on both FanDuel and DraftKings. I have no qualms about playing Lowry in uptempo game, but the price is a bit steep for me to consider him a core target. I’d rather pay a few hundred more and play DeMar DeRozan at shooting guard. DeRozan has a true usage of 29% this season and is averaging 1.05 FP/min. He is also averaging more minutes and more fantasy points per game than Lowry.
Norman Powell is not expected to play tonight, which means C.J. Miles or OG Anunoby will start at small forward. In my opinion, both are viable targets tonight, regardless of who ends up being in the starting lineup. I expect both to play minutes in the mid-20s and they are both priced close to the bare minimum. This is a slate where we are starved for value and both Miles and Anunoby provide it. I don’t hate the idea of using both in the same lineup in order to free up some cap space for the likes of James Harden, LaMarcus Aldridge, and Kyrie Irving.
Serge Ibaka has played at least 28 minutes in four straight games, averaging 28 fantasy points during that stretch. A matchup against Ryan Anderson looks good on paper, but it could actually hurt Ibaka’s production on the defensive end of the floor. Anderson pulls his defender away from the basket, which could lower Ibaka’s rebounding and blocked shot projection. Ibaka is viable, but he’s my fourth or fifth favorite play from the Raptors tonight. Jonas Valanciunas has upside, but he also has a very low floor. I prefer to target him in pace-down games against true centers where I know we can rely on him to play 25+ minutes.
Notable Injuries
Norman Powell (Doubtful)
Toronto Raptors Offense
Points Per Game: 108.8 (7 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 106.5 (3 of 6)
Projected Point Differential: -2.3 (5 of 6)
Matchup vs. Houston Rockets
Points Allowed Per Game: 102.9 (8 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 101.9 (8 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 4.0 (5 of 30)
Pace of Play: 101.0 (14 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L3 +/- | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | Opp. DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Lowry | $7,700 | $7,700 | $15,300 | 29.4 | 2.5 | 31.1 | 1.5 | 0.94 | 20.0% | 54.9% | 6 | 0.73 |
| DeMar DeRozan | $8,100 | $8,000 | $15,000 | 36.5 | 1.1 | 34.6 | 1.3 | 1.05 | 28.7% | 56.4% | 15 | -0.62 |
| C.J. Miles | $3,100 | $3,400 | $7,100 | 14.4 | 1.1 | 18.9 | 0.1 | 0.76 | 17.7% | 55.2% | 10 | 0.54 |
| Serge Ibaka | $5,300 | $5,200 | $10,000 | 23.8 | 3.2 | 27.2 | 2.7 | 0.88 | 15.9% | 63.8% | 9 | -0.56 |
| Jonas Valanciunas | $5,300 | $4,900 | $9,900 | 21.7 | 1.0 | 21.1 | 2.2 | 1.03 | 16.1% | 64.4% | 16 | 2.60 |
| Delon Wright | $3,400 | $3,500 | $6,800 | 16.5 | -4.6 | 21.4 | -5.3 | 0.77 | 16.0% | 64.0% | N/A | N/A |
| OG Anunoby | $3,200 | $3,000 | $6,000 | 13.4 | 1.2 | 16.9 | -0.9 | 0.79 | 14.0% | 53.5% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – DeMar DeRozan, C.J. Miles, OG Anunoby
Secondary Plays – Kyle Lowry, Serge Ibaka, Jonas Valanciunas (DK GPP)
Houston Rockets
The Rockets have won six games in a row and are tied with the Warriors for the best record in the Western Conference. The scary part is that they have been playing this well without Chris Paul, who is tentatively expected to return to the lineup on Thursday. Tonight’s matchup against the Raptors is a mediocre one when it comes to fantasy production. On the season, Toronto is ranked between 11th and 17th in pace of play, points allowed per game, and rebounding differential. Houston comes into the game with an implied total of 113 points, which is the highest on the board by more than six points.
James Harden is going to be popular tonight, but he’s hands down the top overall play of the slate. He is averaging 64 fantasy points in his last three games, he has an elite true usage of 34%, and the Raptors don’t have anyone that can slow him down defensively. Try as I might, fading Harden in this slate doesn’t seem like the right approach. Eric Gordon has been quiet recently, but he still owns a 25% true usage and he is still averaging over 33 minutes per game. He’s an excellent tournament play tonight with the other two shooting guards (Harden and DeRozan) in this game soaking up all of the ownership.
Trevor Ariza and Ryan Anderson are not productive when it comes to fantasy points per minute, but they are both three-point shooters that can get hot at any time. Whether or not you believe in Anderson’s color-blindness affecting his shooting at home, the numbers back it up. The sample is big enough that I would much rather target him on the road. Ariza is more of a wildcard. I will not talk you off of him, but I will likely be looking to pay down at small forward. P.J. Tucker is an interesting play in all formats and one that could get overlooked. In the ten games that Nene Hilario has played this season, Tucker has averaged 28 minutes and 16 fantasy points. In the four that Nene has missed, Tucker has averaged 31 minutes and 22 fantasy points per game.
Clint Capela has played at least 30 minutes and has scored at least 40 fantasy points in four straight games. He was a good player last season and has improved on the following categories this year — PPG, FG%, FT%, RPG, APG, BPG, and SPG. Basically every single stat category that matters, he has improved. I will continue to fire him up tonight in all formats. I prefer him over Al Horford at a similar price point, although as I alluded to earlier, I’m willing to play both in the same lineup on DraftKings and/or FantasyDraft.
Notable Injuries
Chris Paul (Out)
Nene Hilario (Out)
Houston Rockets Offense
Points Per Game: 111.1 (3 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 113.0 (1 of 6)
Projected Point Differential: 1.9 (2 of 6)
Matchup vs. Toronto Raptors
Points Allowed Per Game: 104.3 (11 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.5 (15 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.4 (17 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.8 (15 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L3 +/- | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | Opp. DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Harden | $12,500 | $12,300 | $21,700 | 52.9 | 11.5 | 36.1 | 1.8 | 1.46 | 34.4% | 61.5% | 15 | -0.02 |
| Eric Gordon | $6,300 | $6,600 | $14,000 | 30.8 | -1.9 | 33.3 | 1.2 | 0.92 | 25.4% | 59.3% | 19 | -2.57 |
| Trevor Ariza | $5,700 | $5,100 | $10,100 | 24.2 | 3.4 | 35.5 | 1.7 | 0.68 | 12.9% | 51.1% | 1 | -0.33 |
| Ryan Anderson | $4,600 | $4,700 | $8,800 | 21.2 | -2.4 | 31.2 | 0.0 | 0.68 | 13.2% | 58.8% | 18 | 0.01 |
| Clint Capela | $7,500 | $7,100 | $13,900 | 35.9 | 6.8 | 25.9 | 6.6 | 1.38 | 16.0% | 70.8% | 12 | 0.50 |
| P.J. Tucker | $4,300 | $3,800 | $7,300 | 19.7 | 3.2 | 28.7 | -1.4 | 0.69 | 9.9% | 52.6% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – James Harden, P.J. Tucker (DK), Clint Capela
Secondary Plays – Eric Gordon, Trevor Ariza, P.J. Tucker (FD)
San Antonio Spurs at Dallas Mavericks – 8:30 PM ET
| San Antonio Spurs | Dallas Mavericks | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 202.0 |  | Vegas Total | 202.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | -6.5 | Vegas Spread | 6.5 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 104.3 | Implied Team Total | 97.8 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -1.8 | Pace Projection +/- | -2.8 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Patty Mills | Danny Green | Kyle Anderson | LaMarcus Aldridge | Pau Gasol | Projected Starters | Dennis Smith | Yogi Ferrell | Wesley Matthews | Harrison Barnes | Dirk Nowitzki | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 22 | 24 | 5 | 28 | 22 | DvP | 1 | 21 | 25 | 13 | 6 | |
| DRPM | -1.46 | N/A | -1.75 | -2.44 | -0.45 | DRPM | -1.70 | 0.42 | 0.78 | 0.09 | 1.84 | |
San Antonio Spurs
The final game of the night would typically be one that we would gloss over in a large slate. The Spurs and Mavericks aren’t exactly the best teams to target or to target players against when it comes to daily fantasy basketball. With that said, there are only three games on the schedule, so we may be able to find some hidden gems in this one. While the Mavericks play at a very slow pace (22nd), they are still an above-average matchup for their opponents. On the season, Dallas is ranked 21st in points allowed per game and 27th in rebounding differential. The Spurs’ implied total of 104.3 points is slightly higher than their season average.
Patty Mills is averaging 29 minutes per game over his last four. While he doesn’t have a high usage rate compared to most point guards, he is still eating up minutes in an efficient offense. As long as he remains in the starting lineup, he’ll be on my radar in DFS. His price is very reasonable and he draws a favorable matchup against Dennis Smith, who has a DRPM of -1.46 this season. Danny Green is expected to play tonight, after missing one game with a hamstring injury. I don’t expect him to be limited one bit, yet his ownership will drop thanks to the “questionable” tab that is currently next to his name. Green is an excellent tournament play tonight.
Kyle Anderson minutes aren’t exactly secure, but he has been in good form recently, averaging 27 fantasy points in his last three games. He’s a decent value at small forward, although I plan to have more exposure to the two punt plays from Toronto (C.J. Miles and OG Anunoby). If price isn’t an issue, I also prefer Rudy Gay over Anderson. Gay has a higher usage rate and is averaging 0.20 more fantasy points per minute. LaMarcus Aldridge is one of my favorite plays of the slate if you can find a way to pair him with James Harden. Aldridge has an elite true usage (26%) and an elite matchup against the Mavericks, who struggle against power forwards and on the glass. Pau Gasol is not on my radar tonight, as he is priced a little too close to Al Horford and Clint Capela.
Notable Injuries
Joffrey Lauvergne (Out)
Tony Parker (Out)
Kawhi Leonard (Out)
San Antonio Spurs Offense
Points Per Game: 103.0 (22 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 104.3 (4 of 6)
Projected Point Differential: 1.3 (3 of 6)
Matchup vs. Dallas Mavericks
Points Allowed Per Game: 107.7 (21 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 109.1 (29 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -5.3 (27 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.3 (22 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L3 +/- | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | Opp. DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patty Mills | $4,500 | $4,200 | $8,200 | 16.4 | 3.1 | 25.1 | 3.9 | 0.65 | 17.9% | 45.8% | 22 | -1.46 |
| Danny Green | $5,100 | $4,600 | $8,800 | 22.4 | -1.6 | 29.0 | 0.2 | 0.77 | 16.5% | 53.5% | 24 | N/A |
| Kyle Anderson | $5,200 | $4,500 | $10,200 | 24.0 | 3.1 | 26.5 | 3.2 | 0.90 | 14.2% | 54.8% | 5 | -1.75 |
| LaMarcus Aldridge | $8,700 | $8,500 | $15,600 | 40.4 | 0.9 | 32.8 | -2.7 | 1.23 | 26.1% | 56.5% | 28 | -2.44 |
| Pau Gasol | $6,600 | $6,500 | $11,400 | 30.1 | 5.1 | 25.0 | 0.3 | 1.20 | 18.3% | 59.1% | 22 | -0.45 |
| Rudy Gay | $5,300 | $5,700 | $11,200 | 25.4 | 0.6 | 23.1 | -0.1 | 1.10 | 22.3% | 57.0% | N/A | N/A |
| Dejounte Murray | $4,400 | $4,600 | $9,500 | 21.5 | -3.6 | 22.1 | -4.9 | 0.97 | 20.2% | 47.9% | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – LaMarcus Aldridge, Danny Green (GPP)
Secondary Plays – Patty Mills, Danny Green (Cash), Kyle Anderson, Rudy Gay
Dallas Mavericks
For as long as I’ve been playing DFS, I’ve been avoiding players that are facing the Spurs. It’s not a proposition that is going to pay off over the long run. This season has been no different, as San Antonio is ranked 27th in pace of play, fourth in points allowed per game, and sixth in rebounding differential. The difference between tonight and most slates is that we don’t have many alternatives. A few of the Mavericks are in play strictly because we don’t have enough options to make them auto-fades.
It’s no surprise that the Mavericks have the lowest implied total on the board. The good news is that Dennis Smith has seen a major bump in minutes and production recently, averaging 32 minutes and 42 fantasy points in his last three games. The Spurs have a great team defense, but Patty Mills is not a good defender (-1.70 DRPM). Smith is viable in all formats, although I do prefer Spencer Dinwiddie if you are having a difficult time deciding between the two. Yogi Ferrell has quietly averaged 33 minutes in his last three games, but I prefer the upside that J.J. Barea offers coming off the bench. Barea could see a few extra minutes tonight if the game stays close.
The Spurs have struggled against small forwards this season, but Wesley Matthews has such a low usage rate that I have a hard time using him as a core play. Harrison Barnes has some appeal, especially on DraftKings. He is averaging 38 minutes and 39 fantasy points in his last three games and will be a tough cover for LaMarcus Aldridge to start the game. I expect Barnes to see more of Rudy Gay than Aldridge throughout the game, but we can still roster him in all formats. The rest of the Mavericks can be avoided, as they aren’t playing enough minutes to warrant consideration, especially against the Spurs.
Notable Injuries
Josh McRoberts (Out)
Devin Harris (Out)
Dorian Finney-Smith (Out)
Seth Curry (Out)
Dallas Mavericks Offense
Points Per Game: 99.5 (27 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 97.8 (6 of 6)
Projected Point Differential: -1.8 (4 of 6)
Matchup vs. San Antonio Spurs
Points Allowed Per Game: 99.6 (4 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 101.4 (6 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 3.8 (6 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.3 (27 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L3 +/- | Minutes | L3 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | TS% | Opp. DvP | Opp. DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dennis Smith | $6,300 | $5,600 | $12,400 | 27.6 | 14.2 | 28.9 | 2.9 | 0.95 | 27.0% | 47.1% | 1 | -1.70 |
| Yogi Ferrell | $4,300 | $3,800 | $7,000 | 19.2 | -1.0 | 29.3 | 3.9 | 0.65 | 15.7% | 58.7% | 21 | 0.42 |
| Wesley Matthews | $5,100 | $4,700 | $8,700 | 21.6 | 5.1 | 34.4 | 2.8 | 0.63 | 15.1% | 50.8% | 25 | 0.78 |
| Harrison Barnes | $6,900 | $6,100 | $11,800 | 30.2 | 8.7 | 35.4 | 2.6 | 0.85 | 21.3% | 54.7% | 13 | 0.09 |
| Dirk Nowitzki | $4,500 | $4,000 | $7,600 | 19.5 | -4.6 | 23.9 | -2.5 | 0.82 | 18.4% | 50.2% | 6 | 1.84 |
| J.J. Barea | $4,200 | $4,100 | $8,000 | 21.4 | -3.0 | 21.8 | -2.5 | 0.98 | 26.0% | 53.0% | N/A | N/A |
| Dwight Powell | $3,600 | $3,000 | $6,000 | 14.3 | -0.9 | 16.6 | -4.4 | 0.86 | 13.5% | 46.0% | N/A | N/A |