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NBA Grind Down: Tuesday, November 3rd - Page Two

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2015-11-04 04:43:55

Memphis at Sacramento – 10:00 PM

Memphis Sacramento
memphisnba Vegas Total 198.0 sacramentonba Vegas Total 198.0
Vegas Sprd -5.0 Vegas Sprd 5.0
Team Proj. 101.5 Team Proj. 96.5
Team Pace 95.30 Team Pace 108.10
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Mike Conley Courtney Lee Tony Allen Zach Randolph Marc Gasol Proj. Starter Rajon Rondo Ben McLemore Rudy Gay Kosta Koufos Willie Cauley-Stein
Opp. Season 23 12 4 24 30 Opp. Season 7 14 25 12 9
Opp. Last 7 23 12 4 24 30 Opp. Last 7 7 14 25 12 9

Memphis

The Grizzlies have been flat out embarrassed in two of their first four games of the season. They were dominated by the Cavaliers on their home floor in their opener and then last night they lost to the Warriors by 50 points. Yes, you read that correctly. The most amazing part is that Memphis was ahead after the first quarter. While they will be playing in the second half of a back-to-back, it’s not a major issue since the starters didn’t play a whole lot in the blowout.

The Grizzlies have the perfect matchup to bounce back tonight, as the Kings are ranked 23rd or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and fantasy points allowed per game this season. The Grizzlies have an implied team total of 101.5 points, which is 12 points higher than their average this season.

The biggest issue with the Grizzlies is that they are a well-balanced team that plays at a very slow pace. That combination makes it tough to predict where the production is going to come from each night. That said, Mike Conley, Zach Randolph, and Marc Gasol all find themselves in favorable matchups. I’d give the edge to Gasol though, as he will not have to deal with DeMarcus Cousins, who is out for the next two games. This game also has a Tony Allen-type of feel to it. He could create some havoc on defense and force a lot of turnovers.

Elite Plays

Marc Gasol

FD: $7,700 — DK: $7,800
Min/Game: 31.0 — Usage: 21.9
FP/Game: 23.6 — FP/Min: 0.76

Secondary Plays

Zach Randolph

FD: $6,800 — DK: $6,800
Min/Game: 30.0 — Usage: 25.0
FP/Game: 24.1 — FP/Min: 0.80

Mike Conley

FD: $6,600 — DK: $6,800
Min/Game: 31.0 — Usage: 20.8
FP/Game: 30.3 — FP/Min: 0.98

Tony Allen

FD: $4,800 — DK: $4,300
Min/Game: 25.0 — Usage: 17.1
FP/Game: 22.4 — FP/Min: 0.90

Sacramento

The Kings are 1-2 to start the season and if their first few games are any indication, we are going to see a lot of high scoring games involving this team. In their first three games, teams have combined for an average of 224 points. The biggest news is Sacramento right now is the DeMarcus Cousins injury. He has been ruled out for the next two games with an Achilles injury.

Is the sample size still too small or are the Grizzlies not the same defense that we have seen in years past? I’m going to side with the latter, as two bad outings have had a big impact on the numbers above. When in doubt, I always like to trust Vegas and they seem to agree with me on the matter. The Kings have an implied team total of 96.5 points, which is the third lowest on the schedule tonight.

With DeMarcus Cousins out, Willie Cauley-Stein becomes a terrific fantasy option. He will likely draw the start at power forward, which hopefully means a matchup against Zach Randolph. Cauley-Stein has performed well in limited action this season and he should see a major minutes increase with Cousins out. Kosta Koufos is also expected to draw the start against Memphis. He is extremely cheap and he has the revenge game narrative going for him. Rudy Gay and Rajon Rondo are going to be forced to carry the load offensively. While their individual matchups are less than appealing, both should have a high usage rate tonight.

Elite Plays

Willie Cauley-Stein

FD: $5,200 — DK: $4,000
Min/Game: 20.0 — Usage: 14.5
FP/Game: 21.5 — FP/Min: 1.08

Kosta Koufos

FD: $3,800 — DK: $3,700
Min/Game: 24.0 — Usage: 13.0
FP/Game: 20.8 — FP/Min: 0.87

Secondary Plays

Rudy Gay

FD: $7,900 — DK: $7,400
Min/Game: 31.0 — Usage: 24.4
FP/Game: 31.7 — FP/Min: 1.02

Rajon Rondo

FD: $6,400 — DK: $6,000
Min/Game: 27.0 — Usage: 22.9
FP/Game: 31.7 — FP/Min: 1.17

Denver at L.A. Lakers – 10:30 PM

Denver L.A. Lakers
denvernba Vegas Total 208.0 lalakersnba Vegas Total 208.0
Vegas Sprd -1.0 Vegas Sprd 1.0
Team Proj. 104.5 Team Proj. 103.5
Team Pace 100.10 Team Pace 105.20
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Emmanuel Mudiay Gary Harris Danilo Gallinari Kenneth Faried Joffrey Lauvergne Proj. Starter D’Angelo Russell Jordan Clarkson Kobe Bryant Julius Randle Roy Hibbert
Opp. Season 29 2 26 26 29 Opp. Season 14 29 2 23 1
Opp. Last 7 29 2 26 26 29 Opp. Last 7 14 29 2 23 1

Denver

The Nuggets have not played well this season, but they are one of the top teams to target tonight for fantasy purposes. They travel to Los Angeles to take on a Lakers’ defense that has been non-existent this season. This game has the highest total on the board and it is expected to stay close throughout, as the Nuggets are only favored by a single point.

The Nuggets draw one of the top matchups on the board tonight. In addition to playing at a fast pace, the Lakers are ranked 21st or worst in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game. The Nuggets have an implied team total of 104.5 points, which is second only to the Pelicans.

There are seven potential fantasy options from the Nuggets tonight. Let’s start at center. Joffrey Lauvergne is listed as questionable for tonight’s game. If he plays, he obviously makes a nice value play. If he is out – and it looks like Nikola Jokic will be out as well, Darrell Arthur may slide into the starting lineup. Emmanuel Mudiay, Kenneth Faried, and Danilo Gallinari are all elite plays against a Lakers’ defense that has not been able to defend their three respective positions. Gary Harris has been quiet so far, but he is a sneaky tournament play. I’m more intrigued with Will Barton, who has scored at least 24 fantasy points in back-to-back games.

Elite Plays

Kenneth Faried

FD: $6,600 — DK: $6,300
Min/Game: 24.0 — Usage: 21.0
FP/Game: 26.6 — FP/Min: 1.11

Danilo Gallinari

FD: $6,500 — DK: $6,400
Min/Game: 32.0 — Usage: 21.5
FP/Game: 26.3 — FP/Min: 0.82

Emmanuel Mudiay

FD: $5,400 — DK: $5,900
Min/Game: 30.0 — Usage: 29.9
FP/Game: 22.1 — FP/Min: 0.74

Secondary Plays

Will Barton

FD: $5,000 — DK: $4,000
Min/Game: 25.0 — Usage: 23.1
FP/Game: 22.7 — FP/Min: 0.91

Joffrey Lauvergne

FD: $4,000 — DK: $4,500
Min/Game: 19.0 — Usage: 16.3
FP/Game: 21.9 — FP/Min: 1.15

Gary Harris

FD: $3,900 — DK: $3,300
Min/Game: 25.0 — Usage: 14.0
FP/Game: 14.0 — FP/Min: 0.56

Darrell Arthur

FD: $3,500 — DK: $3,000
Min/Game: 22.0 — Usage: 13.7
FP/Game: 15.3 — FP/Min: 0.70

L.A. Lakers

The Lakers are still looking for their first win of the season. They aren’t going to find many this year if they continue to allow their opponents to score an average of 115.7 points per game. They have a good chance to pick up their first win tonight, although based on the way these two teams play, there will be very little defense played. I believe both teams have a sign in their locker rooms that says, “check your defense at the door.”

Somehow, someway, in what feels like an alternate universe, the Nuggets have held their opponents to the seventh fewest fantasy points per game this season. Am I buying that? Heck no, techno. Vegas isn’t buying it either, as the Lakers are installed with an implied team total of 103.5 points. This is expected to be a shootout and is right there with the Magic/Pelicans game as my favorite one to target.

Julius Randle has looked great so far this season – with the exception of the Kings’ game. He remains an elite play tonight against the Nuggets, whose interior defense was last seen on the side of a milk carton. Jordan Clarkson and Kobe Bryant are also interesting plays, although one (Clarkson) has too low of a usage rate and the other (Bryant) has seen limited minutes this season. I expect some people to flock to Roy Hibbert in this matchup, but in what is expected to be a fast-paced game, I could see both teams playing small ball.

Elite Plays

Julius Randle

FD: $5,100 — DK: $6,100
Min/Game: 27.0 — Usage: 25.2
FP/Game: 28.7 — FP/Min: 1.06

Secondary Plays

Kobe Bryant

FD: $7,700 — DK: $6,600
Min/Game: 28.0 — Usage: 30.1
FP/Game: 25.0 — FP/Min: 0.89

Jordan Clarkson

FD: $6,400 — DK: $5,200
Min/Game: 29.0 — Usage: 19.5
FP/Game: 22.2 — FP/Min: 0.77

Louis Williams

FD: $4,800 — DK: $4,600
Min/Game: 27.0 — Usage: 23.4
FP/Game: 20.7 — FP/Min: 0.77

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious