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NBA Grind Down: Tuesday, November 3rd

by Derek Farnsworth (Notorious) Last Updated 2015-11-05 13:32:23

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.

Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.

We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.

Every game is also broken down by our NBA experts, providing an overview of the game and a selection of players to consider from each contest.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and FanDuel promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

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Chicago at Charlotte – 7:00 PM

Chicago Charlotte
chicagonba Vegas Total 193.0 charlottenba Vegas Total 193.0
Vegas Sprd -4.0 Vegas Sprd 4.0
Team Proj. 98.5 Team Proj. 94.5
Team Pace 101.20 Team Pace 96.70
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Derrick Rose Jimmy Butler Tony Snell Nikola Mirotic Pau Gasol Proj. Starter Kemba Walker Nicolas Batum P.J. Hairston Marvin Williams Al Jefferson
Opp. Season 10 26 8 22 14 Opp. Season 21 3 28 7 21
Opp. Last 7 10 26 8 22 14 Opp. Last 7 21 3 28 7 21

Chicago

The Bulls are 3-1 to start their season. They have won with a balanced offensive attack and a stifling defense. While those two attributes are great for an NBA team, they are terrible for fantasy production. We like predictable offenses that play bad defense. The Bulls travel to Charlotte tonight to take on a Hornets’ team that has played at the sixth slowest pace this season.

The Hornets are not the most efficient team defensively, ranking 21st in the NBA this season. They play at a slow pace though, which is why they are ranked above the league average in both points allowed per game and fantasy points allowed per game. The Bulls have an implied team total of 98.5 points, which is actually the fifth lowest on the schedule tonight. This is not the most exploitable matchup, but it’s not one that we have to avoid either.

In daily fantasy basketball, minutes equal opportunity. The biggest issue with the Bulls so far this season has been their deep rotation. Jimmy Butler is the only Bulls player that has averaged more than 32 minutes per game and Derrick Rose is the only other player to average more than 30 minutes per game. Nikola Mirotic is the perfect fantasy player – a high volume scorer that racks up peripheral statistics, but he would be a bit more reliable if he was playing 35 minutes per game. For now, the Bulls big men should be considered secondary play. Butler is the one dependable option in this lineup. He is a borderline elite play at shooting guard.

Elite Plays

Jimmy Butler

FD: $8,000 — DK: $7,700
Min/Game: 37.0 — Usage: 20.9
FP/Game: 38.1 — FP/Min: 1.03

Secondary Plays

Nikola Mirotic

FD: $6,200 — DK: $6,700
Min/Game: 30.0 — Usage: 24.7
FP/Game: 28.6 — FP/Min: 0.95

Tony Snell

FD: $3,700 — DK: $3,200
Min/Game: 27.0 — Usage: 13.1
FP/Game: 13.0 — FP/Min: 0.48

Charlotte

The Hornets are looking for their first win of the season, after starting their season with two losses against the Hawks and another against the Heat. They have been the victim of a tough schedule to start the season, as tonight they host the Bulls. Cody Zeller has been upgraded to questionable for tonight’s contest. If he is able to draw the start, Marvin Williams would go back to his reserve role off the bench.

The Hornets draw a difficult matchup tonight against the Bulls. On the season, Chicago has held their opponents to the sixth fewest points per game and they are ranked fifth in defensive efficiency. The Hornets are small underdogs tonight at home with an implied team total of only 94.5 points, which is the lowest total on the schedule tonight. There aren’t any options that stand out as must starts tonight on the Hornets, but Marvin Williams would become a borderline elite play if Cody Zeller is ruled out.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Kemba Walker

FD: $7,300 — DK: $7,000
Min/Game: 34.0 — Usage: 23.3
FP/Game: 32.3 — FP/Min: 0.95

Marvin Williams

FD: $4,800 — DK: $4,500
Min/Game: 36.0 — Usage: 15.2
FP/Game: 28.0 — FP/Min: 0.78

Indiana at Detroit – 7:30 PM

Indiana Detroit
indiananba Vegas Total 202.0 detroitnba Vegas Total 202.0
Vegas Sprd 5.5 Vegas Sprd -5.5
Team Proj. 98.3 Team Proj. 103.8
Team Pace 100.50 Team Pace 96.60
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter George Hill Monta Ellis C.J. Miles Paul George Ian Mahinmi Proj. Starter Reggie Jackson Kentavious Caldwell-Pope Marcus Morris Ersan Ilyasova Andre Drummond
Opp. Season 3 9 7 21 6 Opp. Season 11 18 24 5 26
Opp. Last 7 3 9 7 21 6 Opp. Last 7 11 18 24 5 26

Indiana

Even with a healthy Paul George back in the lineup, the Pacers have yet to pick up their first win of the season. They have lost their first three games by an average of 12.3 points. With all of the talent on this team, it’s only a matter of time before they get it going. They will look for their first win of the season tonight against the undefeated Pistons.

Stan Van Gundy has his troops playing very well this season, especially on the defensive end of the floor. The Pistons are ranked sixth or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game. Granted, they haven’t face an elite offense yet, but that is still a concern for the Pacers. Indiana has an implied team total of 98.3 points, which is the fourth lowest on the board tonight.

Paul George is the one fantasy option that really stands out in tonight’s matchup against the Pistons. Detroit has been tough on all positions this season, with the exception of power forwards. George should be able to take advantage of his matchup against Ersan Ilyasova, who has never been an elite defender. This could be a breakout game for George, who has only shot 35.3% from the field this season. His ability to fill up all areas of the stat sheet makes him an elite play tonight at small forward. George Hill, C.J. Miles, and Ian Mahinmi are secondary plays tonight.

Elite Plays

Paul George

FD: $8,300 — DK: $8,100
Min/Game: 35.0 — Usage: 26.3
FP/Game: 33.9 — FP/Min: 0.97

Secondary Plays

George Hill

FD: $6,400 — DK: $6,200
Min/Game: 38.0 — Usage: 21.2
FP/Game: 26.3 — FP/Min: 0.69

Ian Mahinmi

FD: $4,900 — DK: $4,100
Min/Game: 26.0 — Usage: 13.6
FP/Game: 23.6 — FP/Min: 0.91

C.J. Miles

FD: $4,800 — DK: $4,200
Min/Game: 28.0 — Usage: 21.5
FP/Game: 20.4 — FP/Min: 0.73

Detroit

The Pistons are 3-0 to start the season. I know what you are thinking, they must have faced three awful teams, right? Wrong. They have beaten the Hawks, Jazz, and Bulls. I’m still not sure that I am a believer in this team long term, but they have the talent to be a playoff team in the East. They will look to keep their undefeated record intact tonight against the Pacers.

These two teams seem to have switched defenses. The Pacers haven’t been able to stop anyone in their first three games, as they are ranked 19th or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game this season. The Pacers have also played at a fast pace, which gives a small boost to the Pistons as a whole. Detroit has an implied team total of 103.8 points in this matchup, which is the third highest on the schedule tonight.

The Pistons are favored – but not by too much, they have a high team total, and they draw a favorable matchup against a struggling defense. You can make a case for all five starters here. Ersan Ilyasova is probably my least favorite play of the bunch, as he has only averaged 27 minutes per game this season. The other four starters have all averaged at least 34 minutes per game. Looking at the DvP rankings above, Andre Drummond and Marcus Morris have the best individual matchups. Drummond has been able to stay out of foul trouble this season, averaging 44.8 fantasy points per game.

Elite Plays

Andre Drummond

FD: $8,900 — DK: $8,200
Min/Game: 38.0 — Usage: 23.8
FP/Game: 44.8 — FP/Min: 1.18

Marcus Morris

FD: $5,800 — DK: $5,600
Min/Game: 38.0 — Usage: 20.3
FP/Game: 30.7 — FP/Min: 0.81

Secondary Plays

Reggie Jackson

FD: $8,200 — DK: $7,500
Min/Game: 34.0 — Usage: 27.6
FP/Game: 32.5 — FP/Min: 0.96

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope

FD: $4,900 — DK: $4,900
Min/Game: 37.0 — Usage: 17.5
FP/Game: 22.2 — FP/Min: 0.60

Atlanta at Miami – 7:30 PM

Atlanta Miami
atlantanba Vegas Total 195.0 miaminba Vegas Total 195.0
Vegas Sprd 4.0 Vegas Sprd -4.0
Team Proj. 95.5 Team Proj. 99.5
Team Pace 99.90 Team Pace 95.80
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Jeff Teague Kent Bazemore Kyle Korver Paul Millsap Al Horford Proj. Starter Goran Dragic Dwyane Wade Luol Deng Chris Bosh Hassan Whiteside
Opp. Season 8 6 9 25 10 Opp. Season 6 10 23 18 24
Opp. Last 7 8 6 9 25 10 Opp. Last 7 6 10 23 18 24

Atlanta

The Hawks lost their season opener against the Pistons, but they have bounced back nicely with three straight wins. Tonight they head to Miami to take on a Heat team that they will likely be competing against for home-court advantage in the Eastern Conference playoffs. This game has a low total, but it is expected to stay close throughout.

Last season, the Heat were one of the worst teams to target players against. They were tough on all five positions on the floor and so far this season, they are ranked tenth or better in fantasy points allowed to point guards, shooting guards, small forwards, and centers. The Heat play at a very slow pace (95.8 possessions per game) and they have held their opponents to the sixth fewest points per game. With an implied team total of only 95.5 points, the Hawks are not in an ideal spot tonight.

If this was a full slate, this would be a good spot to fade the Hawks completely. That can still be done, but with only seven games on the schedule, we need to exhaust all of our options. Kent Bazemore is an intriguing play tonight with Thabo Sefolosha out. After burning fantasy players in the first two games of the season, he has bounced back nicely with 30+ fantasy points in each of the last two games. Paul Millsap is also a decent play here, as he technically has the best matchup of the Hawks’ starters tonight.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Paul Millsap

FD: $7,900 — DK: $8,000
Min/Game: 36.0 — Usage: 20.6
FP/Game: 36.5 — FP/Min: 1.01

Kent Bazemore

FD: $4,700 — DK: $4,200
Min/Game: 26.0 — Usage: 19.2
FP/Game: 21.8 — FP/Min: 0.84

Miami

The Heat are coming off of an impressive comeback win over the Rockets on Sunday. They completely shut down James Harden thanks to some terrific defense by Justise Winslow. They should continue to be an elite defense this season, especially when it comes to fantasy points allowed.

The Hawks were one of the better teams defensively last season and even though the numbers don’t bare that out yet this season, they will end up being a borderline top ten defense. Tonight’s game is expected to be played at a snail’s pace, as both teams have averaged less than 100 possessions per game this season. The Heat have a respectable team total of 99.5 points, but that is still the sixth lowest of the 14 teams in play tonight.

The Heat have employed a deep rotation this season, with no single player averaging more than 31 minutes per game. That’s the exact opposite of what we like to see for fantasy purposes. Hassan Whiteside provides tremendous upside, but he has that boom or bust nature to his game, which takes him out of cash game consideration in my eyes. Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh have both had high usage rates this season, but they are secondary options at their respective positions.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Hassan Whiteside

FD: $7,800 — DK: $7,300
Min/Game: 30.0 — Usage: 19.0
FP/Game: 33.2 — FP/Min: 1.11

Chris Bosh

FD: $7,800 — DK: $7,100
Min/Game: 30.0 — Usage: 23.4
FP/Game: 29.9 — FP/Min: 1.00

Dwyane Wade

FD: $7,200 — DK: $7,000
Min/Game: 31.0 — Usage: 33.0
FP/Game: 34.3 — FP/Min: 1.11

Orlando at New Orleans – 8:00 PM

Orlando New Orleans
orlandonba Vegas Total 206.5 neworleansnba Vegas Total 206.5
Vegas Sprd 3.0 Vegas Sprd -3.0
Team Proj. 101.8 Team Proj. 104.8
Team Pace 102.50 Team Pace 105.40
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Elfrid Payton Victor Oladipo Evan Fournier Tobias Harris Nikola Vucevic Proj. Starter Jrue Holiday Eric Gordon Dante Cunningham Anthony Davis Omer Asik
Opp. Season 30 25 16 16 25 Opp. Season 27 4 21 6 4
Opp. Last 7 30 25 16 16 25 Opp. Last 7 27 4 21 6 4

Orlando

After reading the breakdown of the first three games, you are probably wondering where all of the elite plays are going to come from tonight. This game should help. Both of these teams have averaged at least 102 possessions per game this season, which should result in a shootout. Both of these teams are also looking for their first win.

The Magic draw one of the best matchups on the schedule tonight. In addition to playing at a fast pace, the Pelicans have been downright awful defensively. On the season, they are ranked 27th or worst in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game. The Magic have an implied team total of 101.8 points tonight. While that may seem low, these are two inefficient offenses squaring off. That’s not a concern though, as there will still be plenty of rebounds, blocks, and steals to go around in what is expected to be a fast paced game.

Much like the Pistons, you can make a case for all five Magic starters tonight. Eflrid Payton has gotten off to a slow start this season, but his ability to fill up all areas of the stat sheet makes him a nice contrarian play for tournaments. Victor Oladipo is averaging 42 minutes per game (which including two overtimes) and he has taken over as the main playmaker in this offense. Evan Fournier has been one of the best value plays early on in the season. He has played 36 minutes per game, averaging 24.6 fantasy points with a usage rate of 19.9. Tobias Harris and Nikola Vucevic have the toughest matchups tonight, as they square off against the stout frontcourt duo of Anthony Davis and Omer Asik (questionable).

Elite Plays

Victor Oladipo

FD: $8,100 — DK: $7,500
Min/Game: 42.0 — Usage: 22.5
FP/Game: 41.6 — FP/Min: 0.99

Evan Fournier

FD: $4,500 — DK: $4,300
Min/Game: 36.0 — Usage: 19.9
FP/Game: 24.6 — FP/Min: 0.68

Secondary Plays

Nikola Vucevic

FD: $8,000 — DK: $7,700
Min/Game: 36.0 — Usage: 19.8
FP/Game: 36.2 — FP/Min: 1.01

Elfrid Payton

FD: $7,000 — DK: $6,200
Min/Game: 31.0 — Usage: 17.1
FP/Game: 23.6 — FP/Min: 0.76

New Orleans

The Pelicans are 0-3 to start the season, but they will only get better moving forward, especially considering the fact that Omer Asik and Jrue Holiday will both have bigger roles moving forward.

The Pelicans find themselves in a favorable matchup tonight against the Magic, who are ranked below the league average in points allowed per game, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game this season. New Orleans has an implied team total of 104.8 points tonight, which is the second highest on the board.

Anthony Davis hasn’t had the start that many of us expected him to have, but he has gotten better in each of the first three games. He is coming off of a 51 fantasy point outing against the Warriors and now he gets to face a bad defense in the Magic. As long as he can stay out of foul trouble, he should be the highest fantasy scorer tonight. I am so confident in this matchup that I am going to have 100% exposure to him tonight and that includes both cash games and tournaments. Eric Gordon is also a nice play here, even though the DvP rankings above would suggest otherwise. He is the second option offensively on the team with the highest team total.

Elite Plays

Anthony Davis

FD: $10,700 — DK: $10,500
Min/Game: 37.0 — Usage: 28.6
FP/Game: 41.1 — FP/Min: 1.11

Eric Gordon

FD: $5,200 — DK: $5,400
Min/Game: 33.0 — Usage: 21.7
FP/Game: 23.2 — FP/Min: 0.70

Secondary Plays

Ryan Anderson

FD: $5,700 — DK: $5,200
Min/Game: 32.0 — Usage: 21.7
FP/Game: 26.1 — FP/Min: 0.82

Toronto at Dallas – 8:30 PM

Toronto Dallas
torontonba Vegas Total 203.5 dallasnba Vegas Total 203.5
Vegas Sprd -1.5 Vegas Sprd 1.5
Team Proj. 102.5 Team Proj. 101.0
Team Pace 103.80 Team Pace 101.60
Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters Matchup – Opponent DvP Ranks and Projected Starters
DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C DvP Rks PG SG SF PF C
Proj. Starter Kyle Lowry DeMar DeRozan DeMarre Carroll Luis Scola Jonas Valanciunas Proj. Starter Deron Williams Wesley Matthews Chandler Parsons Dirk Nowitzki Zaza Pachulia
Opp. Season 2 17 20 28 17 Opp. Season 19 15 17 9 22
Opp. Last 7 2 17 20 28 17 Opp. Last 7 19 15 17 9 22

Toronto

The Raptors have yet to lose a game this season, winning their first three by an average of 12 points. They will look to keep their winning streak alive tonight against the Mavericks. Both of these teams play at a fast pace, each averaging over 101 possessions per game. The total is set at 203.5 points, which is the third highest on the board.

Even though the Mavericks have played at a fast pace, they have been stout defensively this season. They are ranked 12th or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, rebounding differential, and fantasy points allowed per game. Vegas doesn’t seem to be buying the Mavericks’ defense early on though, as the Raptors have an implied team total of 102.5 points.

When it comes to the Raptors, there are two players that dominate the team’s usage: Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan. Lowry has really played well this season, yet he is still priced under $8,000 on both FanDuel and DraftKings. He is a multi-dimensional player that deserves consideration in all league formats. DeRozan is also in play tonight, although he relies more on scoring for his fantasy production. He will be defended by Wesley Matthews and Chandler Parsons, who are both above-average perimeter defenders.

Elite Plays

Kyle Lowry

FD: $7,800 — DK: $7,900
Min/Game: 34.0 — Usage: 22.4
FP/Game: 38.7 — FP/Min: 1.14

Secondary Plays

DeMar DeRozan

FD: $8,000 — DK: $7,400
Min/Game: 36.0 — Usage: 25.5
FP/Game: 35.9 — FP/Min: 1.00

Jonas Valanciunas

FD: $6,200 — DK: $6,200
Min/Game: 28.0 — Usage: 21.2
FP/Game: 29.5 — FP/Min: 1.05

DeMarre Carroll

FD: $6,100 — DK: $5,700
Min/Game: 36.0 — Usage: 21.4
FP/Game: 25.9 — FP/Min: 0.72

Dallas

The Mavericks are 2-1 to start the season. They have been dealing with numerous injuries and it appears that Wesley Matthews and Chandler Parsons are both going to be on a minute restriction for the foreseeable future.

The Mavericks’ matchup against the Raptors may not look appealing on paper, as Toronto is ranked eighth or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential this season. It’s still a small sample size though, and Vegas likes the Mavericks’ offense tonight, as they have an implied team total of 101 points.

The Mavericks are a tough team to target at the moment, as we can’t rely on Deron Williams, Wesley Matthews, or Chandler Parsons to play major minutes. That not only hurts their fantasy value, but it also takes the appeal away from their backups. The only players that really stand out here are Dirk Nowitzki and Zaza Pachulia, but both are averaging less than 25 minutes per game.

Elite Plays

NONE

Secondary Plays

Dirk Nowitzki

FD: $6,500 — DK: $6,600
Min/Game: 25.0 — Usage: 23.6
FP/Game: 32.7 — FP/Min: 1.31

Zaza Pachulia

FD: $5,400 — DK: $5,600
Min/Game: 24.0 — Usage: 22.0
FP/Game: 25.5 — FP/Min: 1.06

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About the Author

Notorious
Derek Farnsworth (Notorious)

Derek Farnsworth (aka Notorious) is a lead RotoGrinders Expert and one of the most recognizable names and faces in all of DFS. Before joining the RotoGrinders team, Derek received a Master’s Degree from the University of Utah. When he’s not busy providing content, he’s dominating the DFS industry as evidenced by his consistent top rankings in several sports and multiple Live Final appearances. Noto provides expert NBA, NFL, MLB, and PGA analysis for RotoGrinders Premium members on a daily basis and has also been nominated for five different Fantasy Sports Writer’s Association (FSWA) awards. Follow Noto on X – @RG_Notorious