NBA Grind Down: Wednesday, December 18th - Page 2
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Washington at Brooklyn
- Vegas Line – Brooklyn -5, 196 Over/Under
- Washington Proj. Starters – Wall-Webster-Ariza-Hilario-Gortat
- Brooklyn Proj. Starters – Williams-Johnson-Pierce-Garnett-Lopez
Washington
The Wizards are somehow 5 point underdogs to the Nets. I’m not a betting man, but if I did, I would have a hard time staying away from the Wizards at +5. But enough of that, let’s get into the fantasy analysis. Nene Hilario is expected to be back in the lineup which ends the run for Trevor Booker as a value play. The Nets have really struggled to defend PG’s, SG’s and Centers this season. I am going to give Bradley Beal another game or two before I trust him as he is still working his way back from injury, but I like both Wall and Gortat in this one.
- John Wall – The Nets are ranked 22nd against PG’s this season and D-Will has never been known as a great defender. I love taking Wall because he can do everything on the floor, including getting blocks and steals. He has great upside and should continue to play well here.
- Marcin Gortat – I think Gortat will actually benefit from Nene being back in the lineup. He just didn’t seem to play that well with Booker as his frontcourt mate. The Nets have not been great against Centers and I think Gortat can pick up a few blocks on Lopez which is an added bonus.
Brooklyn
The Nets are in a decent spot tonight, but they are starting to get healthy again which really hurts their individual fantasy values. Brook Lopez is expected to play, but he is still nursing an injury and is stuck in a tough matchup against Gortat. I think you should avoid him tonight. Joe Johnson is coming off of a monster game, but everyone plays well against the Sixers, I’m expecting him to come back to Earth tonight.
- Deron Williams – D-Will is really the only option that I like on the Nets tonight. He finally looks healthy and has been posting big numbers his past few games. D-Will is one of those players that is always trying to prove himself and a matchup against Wall is a perfect spot to do it in.
New York at Milwaukee
- Vegas Line – New York -3, 186.5 Over/Under
- New York Proj. Starters – Udrih-Shumpert-World Peace-Anthony-Bargnani
- Milwaukee Proj. Starters – Knight-Mayo-Middleton-Ilyasova-Henson
New York
The Knicks will be without both Raymond Felton and Pablo Prigioni tonight which means Beno Udrih is going to get all of the minutes he can handle. He is close to minimum salary across the board and is one of my favorite value plays tonight. He should easily cover his value. The injuries should open up some minutes for Smith, Shumpert, and Hardaway too, but they are all pretty risky fantasy options. The Knicks do have some good news though as Tyson Chandler will be back for tonight’s game. He will likely be on a minutes restriction which hurts both his and Bargnani’s fantasy value.
- Carmelo Anthony – I don’t know how you can avoid this guy at this point. He is playing some of the best basketball of his career and is doing it at both ends of the floor. Even with Chandler back, I expect Melo to keep his rebounding numbers up and he’s a threat to top 30 actual points every night he takes the floor.
Milwaukee
The Bucks are facing a Knicks team that has been very good defensively over the past two weeks. This game has one of the lowest total’s on the schedule tonight, but that doesn’t mean that we should avoid this game completely. I think Brandon Knight could have a solid game against Beno who has never been known for his defense. I also like Mr. double-double in this one.
- John Henson – Even though the Knicks have been good against Centers and PF’s all season long, I really think Henson is going to have a big game tonight. He is a walking double-double and neither Chandler not Bargnani really scares me off of him. He seems to top 30 FP’s every night and I’m expecting him to do so tonight as well.
Portland at Minnesota
- Vegas Line – Minnesota -2, 213 Over/Under
- Portland Proj. Starters – Lillard-Matthews-Batum-Aldridge-Lopez
- Minnesota Proj. Starters – Rubio-Martin-Brewer-Love-Pekovic
Portland
This is one of my favorite games of the night. Even though the Blazers are playing in a back to back, they are a young team and have a terrific matchup. Both of these teams love to push the tempo and I’m expecting both teams to score well into the hundreds. The Wolves are below average against every position except for Centers. I like the matchup for Aldridge, but I’m just not paying that price for him, instead I would rather save some cap room and take either Damian Lillard or Nicolas Batum.
- Damian Lillard – Lillard has been on fire over the last 5 quarters and I don’t think the Wolves defense is going to be the one that cools him down. Lillard was firing on all cylinders last night and I love the matchup against Rubio. Look for Lillard to post a 20 and 10 game tonight. Keep taking him before his price gets too crazy.
- Nicolas Batum – Batum has finally started to post some consistent fantasy scores. He’s scored at least 27 FP’s in each of his last 8 games and should be able to keep that streak going tonight. Batum is great at spotting up in transition and should get plenty of open looks tonight.
Minnesota
The Wolves are also in a very favorable spot. Even though the DvP rankings show that the Blazers have been solid on defense, the Blazers have really picked up their pace of play and it shows in their DvP rankings from the last 14 days. Kevin Martin is hoping to play tonight, but we won’t get an official word on him until closer to tipoff.
- Kevin Love – Love has a tough matchup against Aldridge, but he is matchup-proof and should have no problem padding his stats like he always does. For the Wolves to win this game, they are going to need a monster game out of Love and that’s exactly what I think he gives them. The price for Love is incredibly high, but I think he posts a 25 and 20 night tonight.
- Ricky Rubio – Anytime two fast-paced teams play against each other, you want to target the PG’s because they are the ones responsible for pushing the pace and they can either create shots for themselves or their teammates. Irving played great against the Blazers last night and Rubio should do the same to them tonight.
Memphis at Dallas
- Vegas Line – Dallas -10, 194 Over/Under
- Memphis Proj. Starters – Conley-Allen-Prince-Randolph-Koufos
- Dallas Proj. Starters – Calderon-Ellis-Marion-Nowitzki-Dalembert
Memphis
The Grizzlies had to play without Mike Conley last night and there haven’t been any updates on his status for tonight’s game. Tayshaun Prince is also dealing with an injury so the Grizzlies could potentially be without both of them tonight. If Conley is out, I love the Jerryd Bayless play again tonight, he got off to a slow start last night, but finished the game strong. If Prince is out, you can bump up both Tony Allen and Mike Miller. Both should see big minutes tonight.
- Zach Randolph – I’m a little worried about Randolph in a back to back situation after playing 35 minutes last night, but he’s by far their best offensive player if Conley can’t go tonight. He should easily post a big double-double against Dirk and the Mavs.
- Jon Leuer – Leuer has really came out of nowhere and played some great basketball for the Grizzlies. He’s taken over the majority of Koufos’ minutes and should continue to see big minutes tonight. He’s scored at least 25 FP’s in 6 straight games.
Dallas
The Mavs are in a tough spot tonight. The Grizzlies are one of the slowest paced teams in the league and the Grizzlies are favored by double-digits. That means the Mavs will have less possessions than their season average and the starters could potentially sit out the entire 4th quarter. For me, this is an easy fade.
San Antonio at Phoenix
- Vegas Line – San Antonio -2.5, 203.5 Over/Under
- San Antonio Proj. Starters – Mills-Green-Leonard-Duncan-Splitter
- Phoenix Proj. Starters – Bledsoe-Dragic-Tucker-Frye-Plumlee
San Antonio
The Spurs will be without Tony Parker tonight so look for Cory Joseph to get the start. While I usually love targeting the backup players that make spot starts, I’m just not that confident in Joseph tonight. The Spurs have a deep bench and if Patty Mills comes out and plays well, he could very easily end up playing more minutes than Joseph. I don’t think you should avoid him, but I do think Beno and Bayless are slightly better options if their prices are similar.
- Kawhi Leonard – I really like Kawhi tonight, with Parker out he will have to shoulder a bit more of the load offensively and he may pick up a few extra minutes as well. He has played great this season when given the minutes and I think he gets them tonight against the Suns.
Phoenix
The Suns are 2.5 point underdogs tonight against the Spurs, but have a great chance of walking away with a win as Tony Parker is out of tonight’s game. The Spurs have been a very good team defensively this season and I’m having a hard time finding options that I like from the Spurs. Both Goran Dragic and Eric Bledsoe should play well, but I think there are better options in their price range.
- Channing Frye – I don’t love Frye tonight, but I do think that he makes a great GPP play. He is cheap across the board and Duncan isn’t used to defending bigs on the perimeter. With Frye it really depends on his start, when he hits his first couple of shots he usually plays big minutes. When his shot is off, he loses minutes to Morris.