NBA Grind Down: Wednesday, December 27th
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Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.
Vegas lines are broken down to show projected Implied Team Totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.
We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.
If you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use promo code “GRINDERS” to receive the best perks in the industry.
Boston Celtics at Charlotte Hornets – 7:00 PM ET
| Boston Celtics | Charlotte Hornets | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 206.5 |  | Vegas Total | 206.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | -1.0 | Vegas Spread | 1.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 103.8 | Implied Team Total | 102.8 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 1.6 | Pace Projection +/- | -1.9 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Kyrie Irving | Marcus Smart | Jayson Tatum | Al Horford | Aron Baynes | Projected Starters | Kemba Walker | Nicolas Batum | Michael Kidd-Gilchrist | Marvin Williams | Dwight Howard | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 23 | 22 | 21 | 12 | 3 | DvP | 1 | 4 | 10 | 9 | 8 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 17 | 5 | 5 | 17 | 7 | DRPM Rat. | 27 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | |
Boston Celtics
The Celtics have lost five of their last ten games and no longer have the fewest number of losses in the Eastern Conference. They will look to right the ship tonight against the Hornets, who have significant home/road splits. On the season, Charlotte is ranked 12th in defensive efficiency and sixth in rebounding differential. The Celtics have a below average implied total (103.5 points) compared to the other teams in the slate.
Kyrie Irving has played at a high level all season, averaging 38 fantasy points per game with a true usage rate of 30%. The Hornets have struggled to contain opposing point guards and Irving could see a small minute bump with Jaylen Brown out. Brown’s absence will also open the door for Marcus Smart, who doesn’t seem to like when he’s the chalk in DFS. Smart is viable tonight, but I wouldn’t consider him a must play with nine other games on the schedule. Terry Rozier stands out as an elite value on FanDuel at a price of only $3,800. He should see minutes in the mid-20s if Brown is ruled out.
Jayson Tatum is quietly having a great rookie season. He may not have the same fantasy upside as Ben Simmons, Kyle Kuzma, Lonzo Ball, or Donovan Mitchell, but he is averaging 27 fantasy points per game. He’s viable on FanDuel where we have to roster two power forwards. Al Horford is priced under $7,000 on DraftKings and should come in at sub-10% ownership. He always seems to get overlooked in tournaments. While his matchup isn’t ideal, I will have a share or two of Horford in GPPs.
Notable Injuries
Marcus Morris (Out)
Jaylen Brown (Out)
Boston Celtics Offense
Points Per Game: 103.5 (20 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 103.8 (11 of 20)
Projected Point Differential: 0.3 (8 of 20)
Matchup vs. Charlotte Hornets
Points Allowed Per Game: 106.5 (21 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.6 (14 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 3.0 (6 of 30)
Pace of Play: 101.0 (9 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyrie Irving | $8,600 | $8,500 | $17,000 | 37.9 | 3.9 | 32.2 | 1.8 | 1.18 | 29.9% | 21 | 23 | 17 |
| Marcus Smart | $5,500 | $5,200 | $11,200 | 24.0 | 0.7 | 30.6 | 1.0 | 0.79 | 18.1% | 18 | 22 | 5 |
| Jayson Tatum | $5,700 | $5,600 | $12,000 | 26.6 | -1.3 | 30.7 | 2.1 | 0.87 | 15.5% | 22 | 21 | 5 |
| Al Horford | $7,100 | $6,800 | $13,400 | 33.9 | -5.6 | 32.5 | -2.2 | 1.04 | 18.0% | 17 | 12 | 17 |
| Aron Baynes | $3,500 | $3,600 | $8,000 | 14.8 | -2.9 | 18.1 | -2.3 | 0.82 | 14.1% | 7 | 3 | 7 |
| Terry Rozier | $3,800 | $4,600 | $10,100 | 19.3 | -1.4 | 23.3 | 1.3 | 0.83 | 18.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Daniel Theis | $4,000 | $3,600 | $6,700 | 13.2 | 8.4 | 13.2 | 6.6 | 1.00 | 13.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Kyrie Irving (GPP), Terry Rozier (FD), Marcus Smart (DK)
Secondary Plays – Kyrie Irving (Cash), Marcus Smart (FD), Jayson Tatum, Al Horford
Charlotte Hornets
The Hornets have really struggled on the road this season, but sport a 10-9 record at home. While they are playing in Charlotte tonight, they draw one of the most difficult matchups on the board. The Celtics play at the eighth slowest pace and are ranked second in both points allowed per game and defensive efficiency this season. The Hornets’ implied total of 102.8 points is the seventh lowest of the slate and two points below their season average.
The Celtics have done a nice job of holding opposing point guards in check this season, largely thanks to Marcus Smart. With Jaylen Brown doubtful, Smart will likely draw the start at shooting guard. There’s a decent chance that Smart will be on Kemba Walker to start the game. While that’s not ideal, Walker is only $6,600 on DraftKings. Even if I set his matchup to be the worst of any point guard in the slate, he’s still grading out as a nice point-per-dollar option at point guard. We have to remember that price can be more important than the matchup.
Outside of Walker, I don’t have much interest in the Hornets. Nicolas Batum just hasn’t been able to sustain any kind of momentum, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist seems to be nursing a different injury every few days, and Marvin Williams is seeing fewer and fewer minutes. Frank Kaminsky offers decent value off the bench, although the matchup is far from ideal. Dwight Howard is slightly underpriced on DraftKings, but with a floor of 15 fantasy points and a ceiling of 50+ fantasy points, he’s more of a tournament target than a cash game option.
Notable Injuries
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (Probable)
Charlotte Hornets Offense
Points Per Game: 104.6 (17 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 102.8 (14 of 20)
Projected Point Differential: -1.8 (14 of 20)
Matchup vs. Boston Celtics
Points Allowed Per Game: 98.5 (2 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 101.0 (2 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.4 (13 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.5 (23 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kemba Walker | $7,500 | $6,600 | $14,000 | 36.5 | -2.6 | 34.8 | -4.1 | 1.05 | 26.4% | 2 | 1 | 27 |
| Nicolas Batum | $6,100 | $5,400 | $10,100 | 24.4 | -0.7 | 30.9 | 0.1 | 0.79 | 17.4% | 5 | 4 | 6 |
| Michael Kidd-Gilchrist | $5,000 | $4,100 | $8,000 | 21.8 | 3.7 | 27.0 | 0.7 | 0.81 | 15.3% | 2 | 10 | 3 |
| Marvin Williams | $4,000 | $3,900 | $7,900 | 19.2 | 0.1 | 26.2 | -3.2 | 0.73 | 12.5% | 16 | 9 | 2 |
| Dwight Howard | $8,200 | $7,200 | $14,200 | 34.3 | -8.5 | 29.4 | -6.2 | 1.17 | 19.9% | 12 | 8 | 1 |
| Jeremy Lamb | $5,500 | $4,900 | $10,900 | 26.1 | 0.4 | 26.9 | 0.4 | 0.97 | 22.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Frank Kaminsky | $4,300 | $4,100 | $8,000 | 18.9 | 6.0 | 23.1 | 2.6 | 0.82 | 18.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Kemba Walker (DK)
Secondary Plays – Kemba Walker (FD), Frank Kaminsky, Dwight Howard (DK GPP)
Dallas Mavericks at Indiana Pacers – 7:00 PM ET
| Dallas Mavericks | Indiana Pacers | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 203.5 |  | Vegas Total | 203.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 5.0 | Vegas Spread | -5.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 99.3 | Implied Team Total | 104.3 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 0.0 | Pace Projection +/- | -2.6 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Dennis Smith | Wesley Matthews | Harrison Barnes | Maxi Kleber | Dirk Nowitzki | Projected Starters | Darren Collison | Victor Oladipo | Bojan Bogdanovic | Thaddeus Young | Myles Turner | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 20 | 10 | 6 | 17 | 30 | DvP | 18 | 11 | 13 | 18 | 16 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 10 | 2 | 29 | 4 | 10 | DRPM Rat. | 28 | 27 | 28 | 9 | 18 | |
Dallas Mavericks
The Mavericks are playing in the second half of a back-to-back after beating the Raptors at home last night. They draw an exploitable matchup tonight against the Pacers, who are ranked 19th or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. The Mavericks might be underdogs on the road, but this is still a good spot for the offense as a whole. The Mavericks’ implied total might suggest otherwise, but I’m willing to take a shot on the Mavericks in tournaments.
Dennis Smith has yet to play more than 26 minutes since returning from injury. With Yogi Ferrell and J.J. Barea playing so well behind him, the Mavericks don’t need Smith to play 35 minutes a night. Of the three, I have the most interest in Barea, who is averaging 30 fantasy points over his last four games. Wesley Matthews is never a core play in my eyes, but he’s always viable if you are stuck and need a cheap shooting guard. He is only $4,400 on DraftKings and should play around 35 minutes in a pace-up game against the Pacers.
Harrison Barnes is a player that always gets overlooked in cash games. He may not have the ceiling that we are looking for in tournaments, but he provides a very high floor for cash games. He has scored at least 22 fantasy points in every single game this season, which is incredible for a player that is priced in the $6,000 range on both FanDuel and DraftKings. The best way to attack Indiana is with opposing bigs, but I will not be chasing the points with Dirk Nowitzki or Maxi Kleber after their big fantasy performances last night.
Notable Injuries
None
Dallas Mavericks Offense
Points Per Game: 99.9 (27 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 99.3 (18 of 20)
Projected Point Differential: -0.7 (11 of 20)
Matchup vs. Indiana Pacers
Points Allowed Per Game: 106.9 (22 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.4 (19 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.6 (23 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.4 (12 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dennis Smith | $4,800 | $5,100 | $10,500 | 24.7 | -4.9 | 27.5 | -3.4 | 0.90 | 26.9% | 14 | 20 | 10 |
| Wesley Matthews | $5,500 | $4,400 | $8,500 | 21.6 | -5.7 | 34.4 | -1.9 | 0.63 | 15.4% | 14 | 10 | 2 |
| Harrison Barnes | $6,300 | $6,600 | $13,800 | 30.7 | -0.4 | 34.8 | -1.5 | 0.88 | 22.1% | 7 | 6 | 29 |
| Maxi Kleber | $3,600 | $4,000 | $7,500 | 14.3 | 3.7 | 19.0 | -1.1 | 0.75 | 11.5% | 24 | 17 | 4 |
| Dirk Nowitzki | $4,900 | $4,800 | $9,400 | 23.1 | 7.2 | 25.4 | 2.6 | 0.91 | 18.5% | 26 | 30 | 10 |
| J.J. Barea | $5,200 | $5,000 | $9,700 | 24.2 | 6.1 | 22.9 | 1.1 | 1.06 | 26.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Yogi Ferrell | $4,600 | $4,600 | $9,000 | 18.9 | 0.7 | 28.8 | -1.8 | 0.66 | 15.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Harrison Barnes (Cash), J.J. Barea (GPP)
Secondary Plays – Harrison Barnes (GPP), J.J. Barea (Cash), Wesley Matthews (DK)
Indiana Pacers
The Pacers have won six of their last ten games and are tied with the Wizards for fifth place in the East. While the Mavericks play at one of the slowest paces of any team in basketball, I generally side with the home team when trying to project the pace of a game. If Indiana can speed the tempo up, this should be a great spot for their offense. The Mavericks are ranked 18th in defensive efficiency and 29th in rebounding differential. The Pacers currently have the ninth highest implied total on the board.
We have to take a wait and see approach with Indiana tonight. Victor Oladipo and Domantas Sabonis are both questionable and they would obviously leave big shoes to fill if they are unable to suit up. We will start with Oladipo. If he is ruled out, Lance Stephenson would likely draw the start at shooting guard and would immediately become one of the best value plays of the slate. Oladipo’s absence would also give small boosts to Darren Collison, Bojan Bogdanovic, and Cory Joseph. If Oladipo is active, I will be avoiding the Pacers’ backcourt altogether.
If Sabonis is unable to suit up, Thaddeus Young and Myles Turner would both play 35+ minutes in a favorable matchup against the Mavericks. Dallas is ranked below the league average in fantasy points allowed to both power forwards and centers and they are one of the worst rebounding teams in basketball. If Sabonis is ruled out, Young and Turner would both become elite plays in all formats. Keep an eye on the injury news as we get closer to lock and be ready to stack the Pacers if necessary.
Notable Injuries
Domantas Sabonis (Questionable)
Victor Oladipo (Questionable)
Indiana Pacers Offense
Points Per Game: 107.9 (7 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 104.3 (9 of 20)
Projected Point Differential: -3.7 (16 of 20)
Matchup vs. Dallas Mavericks
Points Allowed Per Game: 102.9 (10 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.3 (18 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -4.5 (29 of 30)
Pace of Play: 96.8 (26 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darren Collison | $5,600 | $5,500 | $12,000 | 27.1 | -8.0 | 30.3 | -4.6 | 0.89 | 18.6% | 24 | 18 | 28 |
| Victor Oladipo | $9,700 | $9,100 | $16,500 | 42.5 | 2.0 | 34.4 | -0.6 | 1.24 | 27.4% | 8 | 11 | 27 |
| Bojan Bogdanovic | $5,100 | $4,300 | $8,200 | 21.0 | 1.2 | 31.5 | 0.1 | 0.67 | 16.0% | 26 | 13 | 28 |
| Thaddeus Young | $5,800 | $5,700 | $11,200 | 27.5 | -9.6 | 32.9 | -6.0 | 0.83 | 15.4% | 5 | 18 | 9 |
| Myles Turner | $8,400 | $6,700 | $12,400 | 32.2 | -2.1 | 30.2 | -0.7 | 1.07 | 17.8% | 24 | 16 | 18 |
| Cory Joseph | $3,900 | $3,700 | $7,700 | 17.8 | -1.8 | 25.0 | 1.8 | 0.71 | 14.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Lance Stephenson | $4,800 | $4,300 | $8,200 | 19.4 | 2.1 | 22.6 | 5.0 | 0.86 | 17.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Domantas Sabonis | $5,100 | $5,400 | $10,400 | 25.2 | 0.6 | 24.0 | 0.4 | 1.05 | 19.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – TBD
Secondary Plays – TBD
Washington Wizards at Atlanta Hawks – 7:30 PM ET
| Washington Wizards | Atlanta Hawks | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 213.0 |  | Vegas Total | 213.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | -6.0 | Vegas Spread | 6.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 109.5 | Implied Team Total | 103.5 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 0.1 | Pace Projection +/- | 0.0 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | John Wall | Bradley Beal | Otto Porter | Markieff Morris | Marcin Gortat | Projected Starters | Dennis Schroder | Kent Bazemore | Taurean Prince | Ersan Ilyasova | Miles Plumlee | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 17 | 25 | 27 | 25 | 27 | DvP | 14 | 7 | 19 | 1 | 7 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 30 | 1 | 19 | 16 | 8 | DRPM Rat. | 7 | 16 | 1 | 13 | 6 | |
Washington Wizards
The Wizards have won two games in a row and are climbing their way back up the Eastern Conference standings. The Hawks are always an underrated matchup for fantasy production, especially when the game in question features a relatively low spread. Atlanta plays at a fast pace and is ranked 24th or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. The Wizards have the second highest implied total on the board and it is four points above their season average.
John Wall had himself a merry little Christmas, scoring 50 fantasy points in a win over the Celtics. He should keep it going tonight against the Hawks, who have been a team to stream point guards against for the last few years. Dennis Schroder has the worst DRPM grade of any point guard in basketball. Wall’s price will likely be above $9,000 after tonight, so this is our last chance to buy low on him. The favorable matchup is icing on the cake.
Bradley Beal draws the toughest matchup of the five starters. Kent Bazemore is an underrated defender and as a whole, the Hawks are ranked seventh in efficiency against shooting guards. Beal is a fade for me in all formats, but I have interest in the other Wizards’ starters. Otto Porter finally broke out of his slump on Christmas and draws an excellent matchup against Atlanta, who is ranked dead last in efficiency against small forwards. Porter is cheap and I don’t mind pairing him with Wall in cash games or tournaments.
Kelly Oubre has played well off the bench and is always worth a look in tournaments. I will not have any Oubre shares myself because I never seem to be on the right side of him. With Markieff Morris and Mike Scott in a timeshare, they are both tournament plays at best in a ten game slate. Marcin Gortat continues to play well on a per-minute basis. While his playing time is sporadic, he has 30+ fantasy point upside at a price of only $4,600 on FanDuel.
Notable Injuries
None
Washington Wizards Offense
Points Per Game: 105.8 (12 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 109.5 (2 of 20)
Projected Point Differential: 3.7 (5 of 20)
Matchup vs. Atlanta Hawks
Points Allowed Per Game: 108.7 (24 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 108.7 (29 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -4.1 (27 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.5 (11 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Wall | $8,700 | $8,900 | $17,000 | 39.7 | -4.3 | 33.0 | -3.1 | 1.20 | 29.0% | 25 | 17 | 30 |
| Bradley Beal | $7,800 | $7,400 | $14,400 | 35.8 | -5.0 | 35.2 | -1.3 | 1.02 | 26.7% | 7 | 25 | 1 |
| Otto Porter | $6,400 | $5,900 | $12,300 | 30.3 | -4.5 | 31.0 | -4.6 | 0.98 | 17.1% | 30 | 27 | 19 |
| Markieff Morris | $4,500 | $4,700 | $8,800 | 18.7 | 1.7 | 23.6 | 2.2 | 0.79 | 17.2% | 14 | 25 | 16 |
| Marcin Gortat | $4,600 | $5,600 | $12,000 | 24.8 | -1.0 | 27.6 | -5.0 | 0.90 | 13.5% | 25 | 27 | 8 |
| Kelly Oubre | $4,400 | $4,700 | $9,200 | 22.5 | 0.6 | 27.9 | 1.6 | 0.81 | 16.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Mike Scott | $4,000 | $4,500 | $9,200 | 16.1 | 2.8 | 19.0 | 0.0 | 0.85 | 17.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – John Wall, Otto Porter, Marcin Gortat (FD GPP)
Secondary Plays – Marcin Gortat (FD Cash), Kelly Oubre
Atlanta Hawks
The Hawks have lost seven of their last ten games and own the worst record in basketball. They draw a fairly difficult matchup tonight against the Wizards, who are ranked 11th in points allowed per game and eighth in defensive efficiency. The Hawks are only 6-point underdogs which helps, but this is far from an ideal spot. Atlanta has an implied total of 103.5 points, which is the ninth lowest of the slate and slightly below their season average.
Dennis Schroder has an elite true usage rate, but he doesn’t rack up peripheral statistics as well as other point guards. With a matchup against an underrated defender in John Wall, Schroder seems a bit overpriced on FanDuel. He’s worth a look in large-field tournaments on DraftKings ($7,300), but far from a core play. Kent Bazemore and Taurean Prince are both intriguing tournament plays, but trusting them in a ten game slate isn’t wise. With so many player splitting minutes in the Hawks’ frontcourt, I will continue to avoid the situation as a whole.
Notable Injuries
Mike Muscala (Questionable)
Atlanta Hawks Offense
Points Per Game: 103.8 (19 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 103.5 (12 of 20)
Projected Point Differential: -0.3 (9 of 20)
Matchup vs. Washington Wizards
Points Allowed Per Game: 103.6 (11 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.8 (8 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.6 (19 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.4 (12 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dennis Schroder | $8,000 | $7,300 | $13,400 | 34.3 | 3.7 | 32.2 | 2.0 | 1.06 | 28.6% | 7 | 14 | 7 |
| Kent Bazemore | $6,100 | $6,200 | $12,200 | 28.9 | 6.1 | 28.6 | 0.0 | 1.01 | 19.5% | 10 | 7 | 16 |
| Taurean Prince | $5,500 | $5,800 | $12,100 | 25.5 | -0.2 | 31.1 | 0.7 | 0.82 | 16.8% | 10 | 19 | 1 |
| Ersan Ilyasova | $5,300 | $4,800 | $9,500 | 21.2 | 4.1 | 24.5 | 6.6 | 0.86 | 16.2% | 21 | 1 | 13 |
| Miles Plumlee | $4,000 | $3,500 | $6,800 | 11.8 | 3.0 | 17.3 | 3.9 | 0.68 | 9.8% | 9 | 7 | 6 |
| Marco Belinelli | $3,500 | $3,600 | $7,000 | 19.6 | -2.0 | 24.1 | -4.3 | 0.81 | 19.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| John Collins | $6,300 | $5,600 | $11,500 | 25.1 | -0.3 | 22.9 | -0.1 | 1.10 | 17.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – Dennis Schroder (DK), Kent Bazemore (GPP), Taurean Prince (GPP)
New York Knicks at Chicago Bulls – 8:00 PM ET
| New York Knicks | Chicago Bulls | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 208.5 |  | Vegas Total | 208.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 1.5 | Vegas Spread | -1.5 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 103.5 | Implied Team Total | 105.0 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -0.1 | Pace Projection +/- | -0.9 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Jarrett Jack | Courtney Lee | Lance Thomas | Kristaps Porzingis | Enes Kanter | Projected Starters | Kris Dunn | Justin Holiday | Denzel Valentine | Lauri Markkanen | Robin Lopez | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 19 | 19 | 23 | 21 | 19 | DvP | 29 | 14 | 8 | 3 | 5 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 5 | 3 | 23 | 23 | 23 | DRPM Rat. | 16 | 19 | 22 | 17 | 26 | |
New York Knicks
The Knicks have lost two games in a row and have momentarily fallen out of the playoff picture in the Eastern Conference. Tonight they head to Chicago to take on a Bulls’ team that seems to have figured it out recently. The Bulls are still an exploitable matchup for fantasy production, as they are ranked 20th or worse in points allowed per game and defensive efficiency. Despite playing on the road, the Knicks’ implied total is nearly identical to their season average.
There is one value point guard (featured in page two) that I absolutely love tonight, so I will not be targeting Jarrett Jack or Frank Ntilikina. Courtney Lee draws a difficult individual matchup against Justin Holiday, which also makes him an easy fade. This game sets up well for the Knicks’ frontcourt. Kristaps Porzingis has been wildly inconsistent over the last few weeks, but is still only $8,600 on DraftKings. Enes Kanter had a massive game on Christmas, scoring 31 points and grabbing 22 rebounds. While we shouldn’t expect a repeat performance, he gets to face a Bulls’ team that is ranked 20th in efficiency against centers and 18th in rebounding differential. Kanter is on my short list of potential center plays on FanDuel.
Notable Injuries
None
New York Knicks Offense
Points Per Game: 104.0 (18 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 103.5 (12 of 20)
Projected Point Differential: -0.5 (10 of 20)
Matchup vs. Chicago Bulls
Points Allowed Per Game: 106.4 (20 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.9 (21 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.5 (18 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.3 (14 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jarrett Jack | $5,100 | $4,500 | $8,600 | 19.7 | 0.4 | 26.1 | -1.7 | 0.75 | 16.7% | 23 | 19 | 5 |
| Courtney Lee | $6,500 | $5,100 | $11,600 | 25.1 | -1.8 | 32.1 | -1.9 | 0.78 | 16.6% | 12 | 19 | 3 |
| Lance Thomas | $3,500 | $3,300 | $6,200 | 8.8 | 2.3 | 18.5 | 7.2 | 0.48 | 10.6% | 25 | 23 | 23 |
| Kristaps Porzingis | $9,200 | $8,600 | $16,300 | 40.2 | -8.1 | 31.8 | 0.1 | 1.27 | 29.4% | 28 | 21 | 23 |
| Enes Kanter | $6,000 | $6,800 | $12,500 | 30.4 | 12.3 | 26.1 | 1.7 | 1.16 | 18.7% | 20 | 19 | 23 |
| Frank Ntilikina | $4,200 | $3,800 | $7,400 | 15.4 | -2.3 | 20.6 | 3.0 | 0.75 | 17.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Enes Kanter (FD), Kristaps Porzingis (DK GPP)
Secondary Plays – Kristaps Porzingis (DK Cash)
Chicago Bulls
The Bulls have won eight of their last ten games, including a nice road victory over the Bucks last night. This team is firing on all cylinders right now, which helps explain why their implied total if five points higher than their season average, even though a matchup against the Knicks is mediocre at best. The only issue with the Bulls right now is that their rotation is deep and it is inconsistent, which makes it difficult to predict the fantasy production of each player.
Kris Dunn had yet another big game last night and I was kicking myself for overlooking him. I will not make that mistake again tonight. The Knicks are ranked 29th in both efficiency and DvP against point guards this season. Dunn has massive upside and is still slightly underpriced on DraftKings ($7,200). Justin Holiday has underwhelmed recently, but he has scored at least 22 fantasy points in eight straight games. That’s quite a high floor for a player that we only need 27 fantasy points from to reach 5x. I prefer Holiday over Valentine, whose minutes aren’t quite as secure.
The Bulls’ frontcourt has a difficult matchup against the Knicks. Not only is New York the third best rebounding team in basketball, but they are ranked third in efficiency against power forward and second in efficiency against centers. Lauri Markkanen, Robin Lopez, Nikola Mirotic, and Bobby Portis are all major parts of the rotation right now and they are all cutting into each other’s fantasy production. This is a situation to avoid in a slate this size.
Notable Injuries
None
Chicago Bulls Offense
Points Per Game: 99.9 (27 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 105.0 (8 of 20)
Projected Point Differential: 5.1 (2 of 20)
Matchup vs. New York Knicks
Points Allowed Per Game: 103.6 (11 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.1 (15 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 3.7 (3 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.5 (19 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kris Dunn | $7,900 | $7,200 | $13,500 | 31.4 | 5.4 | 28.5 | 0.8 | 1.10 | 24.4% | 29 | 29 | 16 |
| Justin Holiday | $5,400 | $5,300 | $11,300 | 26.5 | -2.6 | 33.4 | -3.1 | 0.79 | 17.8% | 4 | 14 | 19 |
| Denzel Valentine | $5,100 | $4,600 | $9,500 | 21.8 | 5.8 | 28.5 | 1.0 | 0.76 | 15.9% | 21 | 8 | 22 |
| Lauri Markkanen | $5,700 | $5,700 | $11,900 | 27.0 | -6.1 | 29.6 | -5.7 | 0.91 | 20.0% | 3 | 3 | 17 |
| Robin Lopez | $4,700 | $4,500 | $8,400 | 24.0 | -1.9 | 29.3 | -5.6 | 0.82 | 18.2% | 2 | 5 | 26 |
| Nikola Mirotic | $6,500 | $6,500 | $12,700 | 30.7 | -2.7 | 25.5 | -1.0 | 1.20 | 24.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| David Nwaba | $4,000 | $4,000 | $7,600 | 20.2 | -3.7 | 23.5 | -2.1 | 0.86 | 12.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Bobby Portis | $4,500 | $4,600 | $9,000 | 24.1 | -2.5 | 21.3 | -2.9 | 1.13 | 22.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Kris Dunn (DK), Justin Holiday (Cash)
Secondary Plays – Kris Dunn (FD), Justin Holiday (GPP)
Denver Nuggets at Minnesota Timberwolves – 8:00 PM ET
| Denver Nuggets | Minnesota Timberwolves | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 213.5 |  | Vegas Total | 213.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 5.5 | Vegas Spread | -5.5 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 104.0 | Implied Team Total | 109.5 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -1.2 | Pace Projection +/- | -0.8 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Jamal Murray | Gary Harris | Wilson Chandler | Mason Plumlee | Nikola Jokic | Projected Starters | Jeff Teague | Jimmy Butler | Andrew Wiggins | Taj Gibson | Karl-Anthony Towns | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 13 | 12 | 9 | 6 | 22 | DvP | 27 | 3 | 5 | 23 | 10 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 20 | 2 | 27 | 11 | 28 | DRPM Rat. | 25 | 3 | 21 | 14 | 6 | |
Denver Nuggets
The Nuggets picked up an easy win over the Jazz last night. Tonight they head to Minnesota to take on a Wolves’ team that is looking to take that leap forward this season. This is one of my favorite games on the schedule, as it has a spread of only 5.5 points and a total of 213.5 points. The Wolves are an above-average matchup for fantasy production, ranking 19th in points allowed per game and 25th in defensive efficiency. The Nuggets’ implied total is three points lower than their season average, but that’s likely due to the fact that they are playing in the second half of a back-to-back.
Jamal Murray has taken over the reigns at point guard, but Emmanuel Mudiay is always lurking in the background. Murray is worth a look in large-field tournaments, but there are better point-per-dollar options in cash games. Gary Harris will likely have to deal with Jimmy Butler, which is a difficult matchup on both ends of the floor. Wilson Chandler is averaging 36 minutes and 28 fantasy points over his last four games. He grades out as one of the best small forward options tonight on DraftKings ($4,700).
Mason Plumlee has also played well over his last four games, averaging 25 minutes and 28 fantasy points. Like Chandler, he is also worth a look on DraftKings ($4,400). I keep hesitating to play Trey Lyles and I keep regretting it. He has scored at least 21 fantasy points in eight of his last nine games. He deserves consideration in all formats against a Wolves’ team that has struggled to defend stretch fours. Nikola Jokic was ejected for a flagrant two foul last night, but is not expected to be suspended. If he is active, he makes a tremendous tournament play against Karl-Anthony Towns, who is one of the worst defenders in basketball. Jokic has scored at least 43 fantasy points in three of his last four games against Towns.
Notable Injuries
None
Denver Nuggets Offense
Points Per Game: 106.8 (10 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 104.0 (10 of 20)
Projected Point Differential: -2.8 (15 of 20)
Matchup vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
Points Allowed Per Game: 106.3 (19 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.5 (25 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.6 (11 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.2 (20 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamal Murray | $6,100 | $5,900 | $11,600 | 24.2 | 6.4 | 28.0 | 3.5 | 0.86 | 22.2% | 16 | 13 | 20 |
| Gary Harris | $6,400 | $6,200 | $12,300 | 29.4 | -1.0 | 34.4 | 2.3 | 0.85 | 18.2% | 24 | 12 | 2 |
| Wilson Chandler | $5,300 | $4,700 | $8,900 | 21.0 | 7.4 | 31.0 | 5.5 | 0.68 | 14.4% | 14 | 9 | 27 |
| Mason Plumlee | $5,500 | $4,400 | $8,500 | 20.3 | 7.6 | 19.9 | 4.7 | 1.02 | 14.9% | 7 | 6 | 11 |
| Nikola Jokic | $9,100 | $8,600 | $15,800 | 38.2 | -0.5 | 29.7 | 4.1 | 1.29 | 21.4% | 26 | 22 | 28 |
| Will Barton | $6,200 | $5,800 | $11,700 | 29.8 | -2.5 | 31.2 | -0.2 | 0.96 | 20.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Trey Lyles | $5,000 | $4,400 | $9,100 | 16.6 | 7.3 | 17.7 | 10.8 | 0.94 | 17.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Wilson Chandler (DK), Trey Lyles (DK), Nikola Jokic (GPP)
Secondary Plays – Wilson Chandler (FD), Trey Lyles (FD), Nikola Jokic (Cash), Jamal Murray (GPP), Mason Plumlee (DK)
Minnesota Timberwolves
The Wolves are well on their way to making the playoffs. After a slow start to the season, they are really starting to gel. They have won four games in a row and seven of their last ten. They draw a favorable matchup tonight against the Nuggets, who are playing in the second half of a back-to-back (with travel). The Wolves have the second highest implied total of the slate at 109.5 points and the seventh best projected point differential (+1.1).
You can honestly make a case for all five of the Wolves’ starters tonight. Jeff Teague draws the best matchup of the bunch, as the Nuggets are ranked 27th in both efficiency and DvP against point guards. Teague is viable on both sites, but I slightly prefer him on DraftKings where he is $600 cheaper. Jimmy Butler will likely draw the defense of Gary Harris, but he should play close to 40 minutes. Andrew Wiggins doesn’t offer much in terms of peripheral statistics, but he is only $5,700 on FanDuel.
Taj Gibson’s minutes have come down a bit recently and it sounds like Nemanja Bjelica is finally ready to return from his injury. While I usually take a wait and see approach in these situations, Gibson is viable on FanDuel at $5,800. The Nuggets have not fared well against power forwards this season. Karl-Anthony Towns draws a difficult individual matchup against Nikola Jokic, but is once again underpriced on DraftKings ($8,700). For whatever reason, KAT seems to love this matchup. In his last five games against Jokic, Towns has scored 59, 46, 63, 53, and 48 fantasy points (insert wide-eyed emoji).
Notable Injuries
None
Minnesota Timberwolves Offense
Points Per Game: 108.4 (6 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 109.5 (2 of 20)
Projected Point Differential: 1.1 (7 of 20)
Matchup vs. Denver Nuggets
Points Allowed Per Game: 105.1 (14 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.1 (17 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 4.5 (2 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.6 (18 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L4 +/- | Minutes | L4 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Teague | $6,700 | $6,100 | $11,600 | 30.4 | -2.1 | 34.1 | 0.0 | 0.89 | 19.6% | 27 | 27 | 25 |
| Jimmy Butler | $8,900 | $8,000 | $14,700 | 39.0 | 7.2 | 37.3 | -0.1 | 1.05 | 23.3% | 21 | 3 | 3 |
| Andrew Wiggins | $5,700 | $5,700 | $12,600 | 28.7 | -4.0 | 36.4 | -3.1 | 0.79 | 21.1% | 4 | 5 | 21 |
| Taj Gibson | $5,800 | $6,000 | $12,100 | 27.0 | -1.5 | 33.4 | 0.0 | 0.81 | 12.6% | 19 | 23 | 14 |
| Karl-Anthony Towns | $10,500 | $8,700 | $17,300 | 42.0 | -0.5 | 35.9 | 3.2 | 1.17 | 20.0% | 18 | 10 | 6 |
| Gorgui Dieng | $4,200 | $3,600 | $7,000 | 16.3 | 0.2 | 17.9 | 1.7 | 0.91 | 14.2% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Jamal Crawford | $3,700 | $3,900 | $7,500 | 15.2 | 8.6 | 18.3 | 4.6 | 0.83 | 22.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A |