NBA Grind Down: Wednesday, January 10th
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Welcome to the RotoGrinders NBA Grind Down. In this all-encompassing preview of today’s NBA action, every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts.
Vegas lines are broken down to show projected Implied Team Totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide pace numbers, so you can spot a game that might have a few extra possessions and more opportunities for fantasy points.
We also provide position-by-position matchup rankings for every team, to give you an idea of the players who will be in better situations to succeed. Using Defense versus Position data, every projected starter is listed along with his opponent’s rank in points allowed to players of his position. These color-coded charts will help you spot the best matchups of the night at a glance.
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Miami Heat at Indiana Pacers – 7:00 PM ET
| Miami Heat | Indiana Pacers | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 205.0 |  | Vegas Total | 205.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 5.0 | Vegas Spread | -5.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 100.0 | Implied Team Total | 105.0 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -0.4 | Pace Projection +/- | -2.6 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Goran Dragic | Tyler Johnson | Josh Richardson | Kelly Olynyk | Hassan Whiteside | Projected Starters | Darren Collison | Victor Oladipo | Bojan Bogdanovic | Thaddeus Young | Domantas Sabonis | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 14 | 12 | 4 | 16 | 30 | DvP | 5 | 4 | 14 | 13 | 8 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 21 | 1 | 29 | 15 | 29 | DRPM Rat. | 24 | 24 | 10 | 14 | 1 | |
Miami Heat
The Heat have been dealing with a number of injuries all year and will be short-handed again tonight. Dion Waiters and Justise Winslow have already been ruled out, while Tyler Johnson and James Johnson are questionable at best. Tyler was a late scratch with a shoulder injury last night and James was ejected for throwing a punch at Serge Ibaka. This could be a good spot for value, as the Heat draw a favorable matchup against the Pacers.
Goran Dragic will be a core play if Tyler Johnson is ruled out and a borderline elite play if Johnson is active. Over his last five games, Dragic is averaging 38 minutes and 41 fantasy points. He is being more aggressive offensively and a matchup against Darren Collison isn’t scaring anyone at this point in his career. Wayne Ellington and Josh Richardson would also see significant boost if Johnson is unable to suit up. Richardson is a better play on FanDuel, while Ellington is more of a GPP flier off the bench.
Kelly Olynyk is too volatile to trust in cash games, but he would likely see a boost in playing time if James Johnson is suspended. The Pacers are one of the worst teams in basketball at defending frontcourts, which would put Olynyk on my radar in tournaments. Hassan Whiteside is only averaging 25 minutes over his last five games, but it’s hard to ignore a matchup against the Pacers. On the season, Indiana is ranked dead last in fantasy points allowed to centers and 19th in rebounding differential.
Notable Injuries
Dion Waiters (Out)
Justise Winslow (Out)
Tyler Johnson (Questionable)
James Johnson (Possible Suspension)
Miami Heat Offense
Points Per Game: 100.6 (28 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 100.0 (21 of 22)
Projected Point Differential: -0.6 (12 of 22)
Matchup vs. Indiana Pacers
Points Allowed Per Game: 106.6 (19 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.8 (21 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.8 (19 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.0 (16 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goran Dragic | $6,500 | $6,500 | 30.2 | 10.5 | 31.9 | 5.7 | 0.95 | 25.2% | 6 | 14 | 21 | |
| Tyler Johnson | $5,400 | $5,200 | 22.6 | 6.0 | 29.4 | 5.4 | 0.77 | 17.9% | 12 | 12 | 1 | |
| Josh Richardson | $5,600 | $6,300 | 24.8 | 6.9 | 33.9 | 4.9 | 0.73 | 15.8% | 6 | 4 | 29 | |
| Kelly Olynyk | $6,400 | $5,900 | 22.8 | 3.2 | 23.8 | 7.3 | 0.96 | 17.2% | 28 | 16 | 15 | |
| Hassan Whiteside | $7,600 | $6,800 | 34.2 | -3.5 | 25.7 | -0.8 | 1.33 | 20.0% | 28 | 30 | 29 | |
| Bam Adebayo | $3,700 | $3,800 | 17.5 | -0.7 | 19.5 | -3.3 | 0.90 | 12.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A | |
| Wayne Ellington | $4,300 | $4,600 | 17.1 | 7.2 | 24.5 | 9.3 | 0.70 | 15.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Goran Dragic, Josh Richardson (FD)
Secondary Plays – Josh Richardson (DK), Wayne Ellington, Kelly Olynyk (GPP), Hassan Whiteside (GPP)
Indiana Pacers
The Pacers don’t have a great matchup on paper, but they are catching the Heat at an opportune time. Not only is Miami playing in the second half of back-to-back road games, but they could be without four of their key players. Even though Myles Turner has been ruled out of tonight’s game, the Pacers still have an implied total of 105.5 points, which is above the average of the 22 teams in action tonight.
Goran Dragic might not be an elite on-ball defender, but the Heat have been tough as a whole against point guards. With Victor Oladipo back in the mix, Darren Collison is an easy fade in all formats. Oladipo is priced up across the industry, but he brings 50-fantasy point upside to the table at potentially low ownership. He sees a slight bump in usage with Turner off the floor this season.
Thaddeus Young has seen a decreased role over the last few weeks of play, but the Pacers will need him to log big minutes tonight against the Heat. We’ve seen Young play big minutes in the past and he is averaging 27 fantasy points in the seven games that Turner has missed this season. Domantas Sabonis stands to be the biggest beneficiary of Turner’s absence. He is averaging 32 fantasy points without Turner in the lineup this season and he owns an elite FP/min of 1.06.
Notable Injuries
Myles Turner (Out)
Indiana Pacers Offense
Points Per Game: 107.3 (9 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 105.0 (10 of 22)
Projected Point Differential: -2.3 (19 of 22)
Matchup vs. Miami Heat
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.9 (5 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.1 (13 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.9 (20 of 30)
Pace of Play: 96.8 (27 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darren Collison | $5,200 | $5,400 | 27.0 | -1.0 | 30.1 | -1.9 | 0.90 | 18.5% | 4 | 5 | 24 | |
| Victor Oladipo | $9,600 | $8,800 | 42.7 | 3.2 | 34.1 | -5.8 | 1.25 | 27.1% | 8 | 4 | 24 | |
| Bojan Bogdanovic | $4,300 | $4,300 | 20.9 | -1.5 | 31.1 | -4.7 | 0.67 | 16.2% | 14 | 14 | 10 | |
| Thaddeus Young | $5,600 | $4,800 | 26.4 | -6.8 | 32.3 | -5.1 | 0.82 | 15.3% | 12 | 13 | 14 | |
| Domantas Sabonis | $5,900 | $6,400 | 25.9 | 5.0 | 24.5 | 3.7 | 1.06 | 19.3% | 19 | 8 | 1 | |
| Cory Joseph | $4,400 | $4,200 | 18.8 | 6.0 | 25.6 | 3.0 | 0.73 | 15.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A | |
| Lance Stephenson | $4,800 | $4,700 | 20.4 | 0.9 | 23.6 | 4.1 | 0.86 | 18.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Domantas Sabonis (FD), Thaddeus Young (DK)
Secondary Plays – Domantas Sabonis (DK), Thaddeus Young (FD), Victor Oladipo (GPP)
Dallas Mavericks at Charlotte Hornets – 7:00 PM ET
| Dallas Mavericks | Charlotte Hornets | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 209.5 |  | Vegas Total | 209.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 7.0 | Vegas Spread | -7.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 101.3 | Implied Team Total | 108.3 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 1.3 | Pace Projection +/- | -2.1 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Dennis Smith | Wesley Matthews | Harrison Barnes | Maxi Kleber | Dirk Nowitzki | Projected Starters | Kemba Walker | Nicolas Batum | Michael Kidd-Gilchrist | Marvin Williams | Dwight Howard | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 17 | 15 | 24 | 15 | 2 | DvP | 23 | 9 | 11 | 18 | 21 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 13 | 7 | 9 | 21 | 8 | DRPM Rat. | 29 | 27 | 30 | 5 | 16 | |
Dallas Mavericks
The Mavericks are playing in the second half of a back-to-back after picking up a win against the Magic last night at home. It’s never ideal to have travel in between back-to-back games and it doesn’t help that they draw a difficult matchup against the Hornets, who are ranked ninth in defensive efficiency and fifth in rebounding differential this season. The Mavericks have an implied total of only 101.3 points, which is the fourth lowest on the board. In an 11 game slate, I have very little interest in the Mavericks. On paper, Dennis Smith, Harrison Barnes, Wesley Matthews, and J.J. Barea look like decent secondary options, but this is a full fade unless one of their players is ruled out closer to lineup lock.
Notable Injuries
None
Dallas Mavericks Offense
Points Per Game: 102.3 (23 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 101.3 (19 of 22)
Projected Point Differential: -1.1 (15 of 22)
Matchup vs. Charlotte Hornets
Points Allowed Per Game: 106.0 (14 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.5 (9 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 2.9 (5 of 30)
Pace of Play: 100.7 (10 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dennis Smith | $5,800 | $6,100 | 26.3 | 6.0 | 27.8 | 0.4 | 0.94 | 26.4% | 18 | 17 | 13 | |
| Wesley Matthews | $5,000 | $5,100 | 23.0 | 5.8 | 34.3 | 0.9 | 0.67 | 15.6% | 11 | 15 | 7 | |
| Harrison Barnes | $6,500 | $6,700 | 30.4 | 3.7 | 34.8 | 0.1 | 0.87 | 21.7% | 21 | 24 | 9 | |
| Maxi Kleber | $3,500 | $3,500 | 13.5 | -2.4 | 18.5 | -3.0 | 0.73 | 11.8% | 21 | 15 | 21 | |
| Dirk Nowitzki | $4,900 | $4,800 | 23.6 | -0.8 | 25.2 | -1.6 | 0.94 | 18.8% | 7 | 2 | 8 | |
| J.J. Barea | $5,900 | $5,400 | 24.5 | 3.2 | 23.1 | 1.7 | 1.06 | 25.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A | |
| Dwight Powell | $4,200 | $3,700 | 17.3 | 2.8 | 18.4 | 3.1 | 0.94 | 13.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – None
Secondary Plays – None
Charlotte Hornets
In case this is the first time that you’ve read the Grind Down this season, I’ll let you in on what everyone else already knows — the Hornets play well at home and they struggle mightily on the road. They have a .500 record in Charlotte this season and draw an exploitable matchup against the Mavericks, who have picked up their pace of play recently (16th over the last four weeks). The Hornets have an implied total of 108.3 points, which is the fifth highest on the board and 3.3 points above their season average.
The issue with the Hornets isn’t the matchup, it’s their price points. Kemba Walker draws one of the best possible matchups for a point guard, but his price is inflated on both FanDuel and DraftKings. Outside of tournaments, we should be able to find better point-per-dollar targets at point guard. Nicolas Batum, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, and Jeremy Lamb have all underwhelmed over the last couple of weeks. Frank Kaminsky has been playing well, but there is a certain Bulls’ power forward that is a much better play at a similar price point. The one and only Hornets’ player that is on my radar tonight is Dwight Howard. The Mavericks have the worst rebounding differential in basketball and are ranked 26th in efficiency against centers. There are two centers in this slate with perfect vision upside (20/20) and Howard is one of them.
Notable Injuries
None
Charlotte Hornets Offense
Points Per Game: 105.0 (16 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 108.3 (5 of 22)
Projected Point Differential: 3.3 (6 of 22)
Matchup vs. Dallas Mavericks
Points Allowed Per Game: 104.3 (12 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.3 (22 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -4.7 (30 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.3 (25 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kemba Walker | $8,400 | $7,900 | 36.6 | 1.8 | 34.5 | -1.7 | 1.06 | 26.5% | 30 | 23 | 29 | |
| Nicolas Batum | $6,100 | $6,000 | 24.6 | 0.6 | 30.8 | -0.2 | 0.80 | 17.7% | 7 | 9 | 27 | |
| Michael Kidd-Gilchrist | $4,500 | $4,300 | 21.4 | -1.3 | 26.3 | -3.5 | 0.81 | 15.6% | 25 | 11 | 30 | |
| Marvin Williams | $3,600 | $3,900 | 18.8 | -2.0 | 25.7 | -3.7 | 0.73 | 12.6% | 5 | 18 | 5 | |
| Dwight Howard | $8,700 | $7,700 | 34.5 | 3.1 | 29.9 | 3.5 | 1.15 | 19.9% | 26 | 21 | 16 | |
| Frank Kaminsky | $4,800 | $4,400 | 19.7 | 4.2 | 23.4 | 2.0 | 0.84 | 19.1% | N/A | N/A | N/A | |
| Jeremy Lamb | $5,600 | $5,400 | 26.2 | 1.7 | 26.5 | -3.0 | 0.99 | 21.9% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Dwight Howard (GPP)
Secondary Plays – Dwight Howard (Cash), Kemba Walker (DK GPP)
Utah Jazz at Washington Wizards – 7:00 PM ET
| Utah Jazz | Washington Wizards | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 205.0 |  | Vegas Total | 205.0 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 7.5 | Vegas Spread | -7.5 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 98.8 | Implied Team Total | 106.3 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 0.2 | Pace Projection +/- | -2.5 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Ricky Rubio | Donovan Mitchell | Joe Ingles | Thabo Sefolosha | Derrick Favors | Projected Starters | John Wall | Bradley Beal | Otto Porter | Markieff Morris | Marcin Gortat | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 15 | 6 | 16 | 4 | 6 | DvP | 22 | 1 | 12 | 10 | 17 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 8 | 11 | 1 | 17 | 8 | DRPM Rat. | 9 | 9 | 10 | 1 | 8 | |
Utah Jazz
The Jazz have lost three games in a row and eight of their last ten. They are counting down the days until Rudy Gobert can return from his injury. Tonight they head to the nation’s capital to take on a Wizards’ team that is ranked 16th or better in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. The Jazz have the lowest implied total (98.8 points) and the fifth worst projected point differential (-2.2 points) of the slate.
Even though this looks like a tough spot on paper, there are actually a few Jazz players that deserve consideration tonight. Ricky Rubio has played well over his last five games, averaging 29 fantasy points per contest. His price on FanDuel ($4,800) is one of the cheapest that we have seen all season. Thabo Sefolosha has seen extended minutes recently, averaging 28 over his last five games. He’s far from a core play for me in a slate this size, but he does offer nice upside at his price point. Derrick Favors is still underpriced on FanDuel, despite averaging 31 fantasy points over his last five games. He has great splits without Gobert in the lineup this season, averaging 30 minutes and 33 fantasy points per game.
Notable Injuries
Raul Neto (Out)
Rudy Gobert (Out)
Utah Jazz Offense
Points Per Game: 100.9 (27 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 98.8 (22 of 22)
Projected Point Differential: -2.2 (18 of 22)
Matchup vs. Washington Wizards
Points Allowed Per Game: 104.0 (11 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 103.9 (8 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.6 (16 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.6 (14 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricky Rubio | $4,800 | $5,600 | 25.7 | 2.6 | 28.8 | -2.0 | 0.89 | 20.5% | 6 | 15 | 8 | |
| Donovan Mitchell | $7,200 | $7,300 | 30.8 | 7.1 | 31.2 | 5.6 | 0.99 | 24.9% | 9 | 6 | 11 | |
| Joe Ingles | $5,000 | $4,800 | 23.5 | -0.2 | 30.5 | 0.2 | 0.77 | 14.6% | 9 | 16 | 1 | |
| Thabo Sefolosha | $4,600 | $4,400 | 19.3 | 11.4 | 21.7 | 6.9 | 0.89 | 15.0% | 23 | 4 | 17 | |
| Derrick Favors | $6,000 | $6,300 | 26.3 | 5.4 | 28.1 | 3.3 | 0.93 | 16.8% | 8 | 6 | 8 | |
| Rodney Hood | $5,300 | $5,300 | 24.0 | -1.4 | 28.9 | 1.1 | 0.83 | 23.8% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Ricky Rubio (FD), Derrick Favors (FD)
Secondary Plays – Derrick Favors (DK), Thabo Sefolosha
Washington Wizards
The Wizards are playing some of their best basketball of the season, winning seven of their last ten games. Tonight’s matchup against the Jazz doesn’t look great on paper, but Washington is playing at home and Utah is missing their best defender. The Wizards come into the game as 7.5-point favorites with an implied total of 106.3 points. Compared to the other teams in the slate, the Wizards have the eighth highest implied total.
John Wall is one of my favorite tournament plays tonight on DraftKings. Even at a discounted price point of $8,500, I can’t imagine him being more than 10-15% owned in tournaments. Wall draws a nice individual matchup against Ricky Rubio and the Jazz, who are ranked 22nd in fantasy points allowed to point guards. Wall is also in nice form, averaging 47 fantasy points over his last four games. Bradley Beal has some tournament appeal as well, but shooting guard is loaded with viable options in the $5,000-$6,000 range. Otto Porter, Markieff Morris, and Marcin Gortat are all cheap, but there are better plays at their respective positions and price points.
Notable Injuries
None
Washington Wizards Offense
Points Per Game: 106.4 (12 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 106.3 (8 of 22)
Projected Point Differential: -0.2 (9 of 22)
Matchup vs. Utah Jazz
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.7 (4 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.7 (10 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -2.4 (24 of 30)
Pace of Play: 96.9 (26 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Wall | $9,500 | $8,500 | 40.6 | 6.0 | 33.7 | 3.2 | 1.21 | 28.5% | 16 | 22 | 9 | |
| Bradley Beal | $8,000 | $7,900 | 37.4 | 7.4 | 35.6 | 2.8 | 1.05 | 26.5% | 10 | 1 | 9 | |
| Otto Porter | $6,700 | $6,100 | 30.2 | -0.2 | 31.4 | 3.2 | 0.96 | 16.7% | 14 | 12 | 10 | |
| Markieff Morris | $5,100 | $5,300 | 20.4 | 6.9 | 24.8 | 4.8 | 0.82 | 16.6% | 15 | 10 | 1 | |
| Marcin Gortat | $4,500 | $4,900 | 24.7 | 0.9 | 27.3 | -0.7 | 0.90 | 13.8% | 1 | 17 | 8 | |
| Kelly Oubre | $4,100 | $4,600 | 22.3 | -2.3 | 27.0 | -5.4 | 0.82 | 16.3% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – John Wall (DK GPP)
Secondary Plays – John Wall (DK Cash)
Chicago Bulls at New York Knicks – 7:30 PM ET
| Chicago Bulls | New York Knicks | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 208.5 |  | Vegas Total | 208.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | 4.5 | Vegas Spread | -4.5 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 102.0 | Implied Team Total | 106.5 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | -1.0 | Pace Projection +/- | 0.4 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Kris Dunn | Justin Holiday | Denzel Valentine | Lauri Markkanen | Robin Lopez | Projected Starters | Jarrett Jack | Courtney Lee | Lance Thomas | Kristaps Porzingis | Enes Kanter | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 26 | 16 | 13 | 2 | 5 | DvP | 24 | 28 | 20 | 23 | 7 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 18 | 17 | 18 | 9 | 24 | DRPM Rat. | 9 | 6 | 16 | 26 | 27 | |
Chicago Bulls
The Bulls have lost six of their last ten games and have to face an underrated Knicks’ defense tonight on the road. On the season, New York is ranked tenth in points allowed per game and third in rebounding differential. However, Vegas seems to be buying in on the Bulls’ offense, as they have an implied total of 102 points, even though Nikola Mirotic is expected to miss another game with a stomach virus. It’s scary to admit, but I am considering a Bulls’ stack tonight in cash games and tournaments.
Kris Dunn draws the best matchup of the five starters, as the Knicks are ranked 26th in efficiency and DvP against point guards this season. The problem is that this is the most expensive that we’ve seen him all season. Dunn is still viable in tournaments, but the high price point takes him out of cash game consideration. Justin Holiday has scored at least 22 fantasy points in 14 of his last 16 games, which is an impressive feat. He has a high floor and should play 35+ minutes tonight against the Knicks. Denzel Valentine played 36 minutes the other night with Mirotic out. While I’m not sure we can expect a repeat, I’m going to pencil him in for 30-32 tonight, which makes him a great play at a price under $5,000.
The three biggest beneficiaries of Mirotic being out are all in the frontcourt. Lauri Markkanen should see a nice boost in playing time and he comes into the game in good form, averaging 31 fantasy points over his last five games. While I like Markkenen, I absolutely love Bobby Portis tonight. Portis averages an elite FP/min of 1.13 this season and he played 33 minutes in Mirotic’s absence the other night. Portis will be chalky, but he’s the kind that you eat and look to differentiate elsewhere. Robin Lopez burned a lot of bridges on Monday night. I certainly didn’t expect him to play 14 minutes in a game without Mirotic, as he played at least 20 in each of his previous eight games. I’m going right back to the well tonight, as the Knicks are a much better matchup for him than the Rockets. If Monday’s game didn’t happen, Lopez would be 30% owned tonight. Thanks to recency bias, we can probably target him at 10%.
Notable Injuries
Nikola Mirotic (Doubtful)
Chicago Bulls Offense
Points Per Game: 101.8 (25 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 102.0 (18 of 22)
Projected Point Differential: 0.2 (8 of 22)
Matchup vs. New York Knicks
Points Allowed Per Game: 103.9 (10 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 105.3 (14 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 3.4 (3 of 30)
Pace of Play: 98.4 (19 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kris Dunn | $7,900 | $7,500 | $13,500 | 32.4 | 4.4 | 29.0 | 1.9 | 1.12 | 24.8% | 26 | 26 | 18 |
| Justin Holiday | $5,500 | $5,300 | $10,200 | 26.6 | 0.4 | 34.0 | 2.7 | 0.78 | 17.0% | 6 | 16 | 17 |
| Denzel Valentine | $4,700 | $4,800 | $10,300 | 22.1 | 5.6 | 28.5 | 1.9 | 0.77 | 15.7% | 22 | 13 | 18 |
| Lauri Markkanen | $5,900 | $5,900 | $11,600 | 27.7 | 3.3 | 29.7 | 1.6 | 0.93 | 19.6% | 1 | 2 | 9 |
| Robin Lopez | $4,100 | $4,400 | $8,600 | 23.4 | -4.1 | 28.2 | -5.0 | 0.83 | 18.3% | 6 | 5 | 24 |
| Nikola Mirotic | $5,800 | $5,600 | $11,900 | 29.6 | -2.9 | 25.1 | -2.5 | 1.18 | 23.6% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Bobby Portis | $4,900 | $4,700 | $9,000 | 23.5 | 0.9 | 20.8 | 0.5 | 1.13 | 22.4% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Justin Holiday, Denzel Valentine, Lauri Markkanen, Bobby Portis, Robin Lopez
Secondary Plays – Kris Dunn
New York Knicks
The Knicks have lost seven of their last ten games and have fallen outside of the top eight in the Eastern Conference standings. They draw a favorable matchup tonight against the Bulls, who are ranked 20th or worse in points allowed per game, defensive efficiency, and rebounding differential. The Knicks have an implied total of 106.5 points, which is the seventh highest on the board and three points above their season average.
Jarrett Jack isn’t a flashy play by any means, but his minutes and fantasy production have both been trending in the right direction. Over his last five games, he is averaging 29 minutes and 24 fantasy points. If you need a value play at point guard, you can certainly do a lot worse than Jack. While Kris Dunn is a good defender, the Bulls as a whole are ranked 26th in efficiency against point guards. Courtney Lee is a bit overpriced on FanDuel, but firmly in play for tournaments on DraftKings ($5,100). Kristaps Porzingis draws an excellent matchup, his price is down on DraftKings ($8,300), and he is playing at home where he averages 41 fantasy points per game this season. Enes Kanter makes some sense in tournaments on FanDuel ($5,400), but he is far too inconsistent to target in a cash game setting.
Notable Injuries
Michael Beasley (Questionable)
New York Knicks Offense
Points Per Game: 103.2 (21 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 106.5 (7 of 22)
Projected Point Differential: 3.3 (5 of 22)
Matchup vs. Chicago Bulls
Points Allowed Per Game: 108.1 (23 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 107.9 (25 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -0.9 (20 of 30)
Pace of Play: 99.8 (11 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jarrett Jack | $4,500 | $4,300 | $8,300 | 20.7 | 3.4 | 26.4 | 2.2 | 0.78 | 17.7% | 26 | 24 | 9 |
| Courtney Lee | $6,000 | $5,100 | $11,200 | 25.3 | -0.4 | 32.7 | 2.2 | 0.77 | 16.8% | 30 | 28 | 6 |
| Lance Thomas | $3,500 | $3,000 | $6,000 | 9.3 | 0.7 | 19.1 | 2.5 | 0.49 | 10.0% | 25 | 20 | 16 |
| Kristaps Porzingis | $9,500 | $8,300 | $15,900 | 40.0 | -2.8 | 32.7 | 3.0 | 1.22 | 28.4% | 27 | 23 | 26 |
| Enes Kanter | $5,400 | $6,200 | $12,200 | 29.1 | -4.9 | 25.0 | -3.9 | 1.16 | 18.6% | 12 | 7 | 27 |
| Michael Beasley | $6,300 | $5,700 | $11,000 | 20.5 | 16.3 | 18.6 | 5.3 | 1.10 | 24.7% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Jarrett Jack, Kristaps Porzingis (DK)
Secondary Plays – Kristaps Porzingis (FD), Courtney Lee (DK), Enes Kanter (FD GPP)
Detroit Pistons at Brooklyn Nets – 7:30 PM ET
| Detroit Pistons | Brooklyn Nets | |||||||||||
 | Vegas Total | 204.5 |  | Vegas Total | 204.5 | |||||||
| Vegas Spread | -2.0 | Vegas Spread | 2.0 | |||||||||
| Implied Team Total | 103.3 | Implied Team Total | 101.3 | |||||||||
| Pace Projection +/- | 3.0 | Pace Projection +/- | -1.8 | |||||||||
| Projected Starters | Ish Smith | Avery Bradley | Reggie Bullock | Tobias Harris | Andre Drummond | Projected Starters | Spencer Dinwiddie | Caris LeVert | Joe Harris | Rondae Hollis-Jefferson | Tyler Zeller | |
| Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | Opponent Rank | PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DvP | 25 | 18 | 15 | 28 | 28 | DvP | 7 | 13 | 26 | 11 | 20 | |
| DRPM Rat. | 4 | 23 | 23 | 21 | 13 | DRPM Rat. | 16 | 21 | 15 | 26 | 3 | |
Detroit Pistons
The Pistons have lost five of their last ten games, but would sneak into the playoffs if the regular season ended today. The Nets have slowed their pace of play down recently, but are still one of the top teams to target players against in DFS. On the season, Brooklyn is ranked fifth in pace and 26th in points allowed per game. The Pistons have an implied total of 103.3 points, which is slightly above their season average.
Ish Smith has filled in nicely for Reggie Jackson, averaging 29 minutes and 27 fantasy points over his last five games. The Pistons tend to get into more blowouts than most teams, but Smith is capable of playing 32-34 minutes in close games. He draws a nice matchup against the Nets and is viable on DraftKings ($5,700). Cue the music — “Reunited and it feels so good!” On Monday, I announced that I would give Avery Bradley one more chance before deciding to split ways forever. Playing hard to get was apparently all it took, as he scored 40 fantasy points against the Pelicans. Avery and I are back together and better than ever.
Reggie Bullock has had some decent outings recently, but Stanley Johnson is listed as probable. In a slate this size, we should be able to find better value plays. Tobias Harris is an intriguing play in tournaments, although power forward is a surprisingly deep position. If you recall from earlier, I mentioned that two centers have 20/20 type of upside tonight. The first was Dwight Howard and the second is Andre Drummond. The Nets are ranked 27th in efficiency against centers and 14th in rebounding differential this season.
Notable Injuries
None
Detroit Pistons Offense
Points Per Game: 101.9 (24 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 103.3 (15 of 22)
Projected Point Differential: 1.3 (7 of 22)
Matchup vs. Brooklyn Nets
Points Allowed Per Game: 108.8 (26 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 106.0 (16 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: + 0.2 (14 of 30)
Pace of Play: 102.4 (5 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ish Smith | $6,600 | $5,700 | $11,900 | 19.6 | 7.5 | 21.6 | 7.8 | 0.91 | 24.2% | 24 | 25 | 4 |
| Avery Bradley | $4,900 | $5,400 | $10,100 | 23.5 | -0.7 | 31.6 | 2.0 | 0.74 | 21.1% | 23 | 18 | 23 |
| Reggie Bullock | $4,500 | $4,200 | $8,700 | 13.5 | 3.6 | 22.4 | 9.1 | 0.60 | 11.5% | 3 | 15 | 23 |
| Tobias Harris | $6,700 | $6,900 | $12,900 | 29.2 | 4.3 | 32.9 | 0.6 | 0.89 | 21.2% | 24 | 28 | 21 |
| Andre Drummond | $9,300 | $8,700 | $15,800 | 42.6 | -0.6 | 32.7 | 2.4 | 1.30 | 18.4% | 27 | 28 | 13 |
| Stanley Johnson | $3,700 | $3,900 | $7,600 | 17.5 | 27.8 | 0.63 | 13.5% | N/A | N/A | N/A |
Elite Plays – Avery Bradley, Andre Drummond (DK)
Secondary Plays – Andre Drummond (FD), Tobias Harris (GPP), Ish Smith (DK)
Brooklyn Nets
You know it’s a strange slate when I’m considering stacking the Bulls on the road against the Knicks and stacking the Nets in a tough matchup against the Pistons. As with any DFS sport, value is more important than a matchup and injuries have opened up plenty of value for both the Bulls and the Nets. Allen Crabbe and DeMarre Carroll are both expected to miss tonight’s game, which opens up minutes and usage in this offense. Even though the Nets have the worst projected point differential on the board, I will be loading up on their players in DFS.
The knock on Spencer Dinwiddie this season has been the lack of minute upside. He is typically confined to a 28-32 minute role, but he has played at least 36 minutes in regulation in three straight games. With all of the injuries to the Nets, Dinwiddie makes a lot of sense in a nice matchup against Ish Smith. Caris LeVert was one of the biggest duds on Monday, but should bounce back nicely tonight. While a matchup against Avery Bradley isn’t ideal, LeVert should draw the start at shooting guard for the injured Crabbe. Look for LeVert to play 30+ minutes, which puts him on my radar in all formats.
Joe Harris should also log heavy minutes tonight. With no Crabbe and no Carroll, someone has to pick up extra playing time. Harris is a viable punt option at small forward, especially on FanDuel ($4,000). Rondae Hollis-Jefferson single-handedly carried my lineups to victory the other night and I don’t mind going right back to the well tonight. His price takes him out of consideration for cash games, but RHJ has 50-fantasy point upside when he plays 35+ minutes. I will have quite a few shares in tournaments and I’ll hope that his inflated price point keeps his ownership low.
Notable Injuries
DeMarre Carroll (Out)
Allen Crabbe (Doubtful)
Brooklyn Nets Offense
Points Per Game: 106.6 (11 of 30)
Implied Implied Team Total: 101.3 (19 of 22)
Projected Point Differential: -5.3 (22 of 22)
Matchup vs. Detroit Pistons
Points Allowed Per Game: 101.9 (5 of 30)
Defensive Efficiency: 104.8 (11 of 30)
Rebounding Differential: -1.1 (22 of 30)
Pace of Play: 97.6 (24 of 30)
| Player | FD Salary | DK Salary | FDRFT Salary | FP/Game | L5 +/- | Minutes | L5 +/- | FP/Min | True Usage | EFF | DVP | DRPM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spencer Dinwiddie | $7,200 | $6,700 | $13,500 | 29.2 | 6.0 | 27.9 | 6.8 | 1.05 | 22.7% | 19 | 7 | 16 |
| Caris LeVert | $6,000 | $5,400 | $10,100 | 25.4 | 4.3 | 26.9 | 0.9 | 0.95 | 20.2% | 1 | 13 | 21 |
| Joe Harris | $4,000 | $4,400 | $8,900 | 17.1 | 3.5 | 24.8 | 4.0 | 0.69 | 14.8% | 28 | 26 | 15 |
| Rondae Hollis-Jefferson | $7,300 | $6,600 | $12,100 | 29.2 | 1.1 | 28.6 | 3.8 | 1.02 | 20.1% | 13 | 11 | 26 |
| Tyler Zeller | $3,500 | $3,500 | $7,100 | 16.2 | -2.1 | 18.1 | -4.6 | 0.90 | 15.3% | 15 | 20 | 3 |
| Quincy Acy | $3,600 | $3,700 | $7,200 | 12.0 | 1.1 | 19.0 | 5.6 | 0.63 | 13.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A |