NBA Grind Down: Wednesday, March 26th - Page 2
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L.A.Clippers at New Orleans
- Vegas Line – L.A. Clippers -7.5, 206 Over/Under
- L.A.Clippers Proj. Starters – Paul-Collison-Barnes-Griffin-Jordan
- New Orleans Proj. Starters – Roberts-Evans-Babbitt-Davis-Stiemsma
L.A.Clippers
The Clippers are 7.5 point favorites tonight against the Pelicans in what should be a high scoring game. The Pelicans play at a slow pace, but they are still giving up the 11th most points per game this season. The Pelicans DvP rankings are all over the place if you look at the difference between the season rankings and the last 15 day rankings. This is mainly due to the fact that the Pelicans have had a lot of injuries and keep experimenting with their rotations.
- Chris Paul – In their last meeting, CP3 posted 38 FP’s in only 30 minutes of playing time. That game got out of hand quickly and Paul ended up sitting out the entire 4th quarter. This time around the game will be played in New Orleans and it should be much closer. He’s my top PG tonight as the Pelicans are ranked 23rd against PG’s this season.
- DeAndre Jordan – It was tough deciding between Griffin and Jordan, but it looks like the Pelicans will go with a bigger starting lineup tonight and that means Davis will be on Griffin and Stiemsma will be on Jordan. I’ll take Jordan at a cheaper price in a better matchup.
- Darren Collison – Collison is an average play on most sites, but is one of my favorite plays on DK tonight. He is only $4,000 which is insanely cheap. Even with Crawford back in the lineup, Collison is still starting and he has been seeing around 30 minutes per game. His floor is around his value tonight.
- Additional Bank Shot Plays – Blake Griffin, Jamal Crawford
New Orleans
The Pelicans will be without Eric Gordon tonight and Brian Roberts is listed as questionable. This opens up the door for Tyreke Evans, Austin Rivers, and Al-Farouq Aminu. All three should see extended playing time tonight against the Clippers. This is a decent matchup for the Pelicans. The Clippers are one of the fastest paced teams in the league and have really only defended the PG position well this season.
- Anthony Davis – You can throw out the last game that Davis had against the Clippers because he got into early foul trouble and the Pelicans got down big early. The foul trouble is still a small concern, but he’s managed to stay out of it during this incredible stretch that he has had. He had had a floor of around 50 FP’s over the last two weeks.
- Tyreke Evans – Evans is one of the top GPP plays tonight, but he also makes sense as a cash game play if the price is right. He can do so many things on the floor well that his floor is very high. He should continue to attack the rim tonight and should see a small uptick in production with Gordon out.
- Additional Bank Shot Plays – Brian Roberts, Al-Farouq Aminu, Austin Rivers
Miami at Indiana
- Vegas Line – Indiana -1.5, 188 Over/Under
- Miami Proj. Starters – Chalmers-Wade-James-Bosh-Oden
- Indiana Proj. Starters – Hill-Stephenson-George-West-Hibbert
Miami
This is going to be an extremely good game to watch, however, I’m not sure that I will be wasting any of my roster spots on players from either team. The total for this game is set at only 188 points and both teams are ranked in the top 10 in points allowed per game. The Pacers are ranked 7th or better against every position on the floor this season which does not bode well for the Heat players tonight. Dwyane Wade is once again a GTD, but even if he sits out, I don’t love anyone here for cash games.
- Additional Bank Shot Plays – LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh
Indiana
The Pacers are in the same boat as the Heat. This game should be a fairly slow paced game that will not feature a ton of offensive highlights. The Heat are ranked 3rd or better against PG’s, SG’s, and SF’s which pretty much takes George Hill, Lance Stephenson, and Paul George out of cash game consideration. The Heat are the second worst rebounding team in the league though so you could take a shot on either David West or Roy Hibbert down low.
- Additional Bank Shot Plays – Paul George, Lance Stephenson, David West, Roy Hibbert
Denver at San Antonio
- Vegas Line – San Antonio -13, 216.5 Over/Under
- Denver Proj. Starters – Lawson-Foye-Chandler-Faried-Mozgov
- San Antonio Proj. Starters – Parker-Green-Leonard-Duncan-Splitter
Denver
The Spurs continue to dominate their opponents and they continue to be huge favorites. The Nuggets are 13 points underdogs tonight in San Antonio and will be without both Wilson Chandler and Jan Vesely. This should solidify the minutes for Darrell Arthur off the bench. He’s actually one of my favorite value plays tonight. The Spurs used to be one of the worst teams against PG’s, but are ranked 1st against PG’s over the last 15 days and a lot of that has to do with the fact that they are just blowing teams out and opposing PG’s end up riding the bench. The Nuggets are all best served as tournament plays tonight.
- Additional Bank Shot Plays – Ty Lawson, Randy Foye, Kenneth Faried, Timofey Mozgov, Darrell Arthur
San Antonio
When the Spurs are huge favorites toward the end of the season, it makes me want to stay as far away from possible from all of their veterans. We have already seen Coach Pop rest players, give starters only 15 minutes of playing time, and even roll out some unusual starting lineups. This is a great matchup as the Nuggets are ranked below average defensively against all positions, but I think the veteran players are better served as tournament plays.
- Kawhi Leonard – Leonard hasn’t played less than 26 minutes in any of his last 5 games so as long as that holds true tonight against the Nuggets, he should have another solid fantasy outing. He has topped 25 FP’s in 10 straight games and the Nuggets are ranked 25th against SF’s this season.
- Additional Bank Shot Plays – Tony Parker, Tim Duncan, Danny Green, Boris Diaw, Manu Ginobili
New York at Sacramento
- Vegas Line – Even Spread, 202 Over/Under
- New York Proj. Starters – Felton-Smith-Anthony-Stoudemire-Chandler
- Sacramento Proj. Starters – Thomas-McLemore-Gay-Evans-Cousins
New York
The Knicks have shot themselves in the foot. After all that hard work to get back in the playoff race, they have dropped consecutive games to the Cavs and the Lakers. At this point, they can’t afford to lose another game. As far as DFS goes, this is a solid matchup for the Knicks. The Kings like to push the pace and are giving up the 6th most points per game this season. Amar’e Stoudemire could be a sneaky play tonight, the Knicks are hoping that he can play in tonight’s back to back situation.
- Carmelo Anthony – This is the time where Melo needs to tell the Knicks to get on his back and let him carry them to the promised land. Melo cannot be happy with their effort in the last two games and I expect him to come out firing tonight. The Kings are ranked 23rd against SF’s this season and I’m predicting Melo to post 40 actual points on his way to a Knicks win.
- Additional Bank Shot Plays – Tyson Chandler, J.R. Smith, Raymond Felton, Amare Stoudemire
Sacramento
The Kings face a Knicks team that seems to be two different teams on defense this season. They are either a shut down defense, or give up 50 points in a quarter like they did last night to the Lakers. Isaiah Thomas is questionable for tonight’s game and it appears that he may be on the wrong side of that questionable tag.
- Ray McCallum – McCallum is obviously a great play on late swap sites because you can always pivot away from him if Thomas ends up playing, but I actually think he provides nice value on sites that lock lineups at 7:00 ET. You have to think that Thomas has less than a 50% chance of playing tonight and taking a risk on McCallum could pay huge dividends if Thomas ends up sitting.
- Rudy Gay – Gay’s price is very affordable across the industry and I don’t mind his matchup against Melo tonight. He could also be matched up against J.R. Smith if Amare has to sit out and the Knicks decide to play small ball. He offers nice upside for the price and he has played well at against the Knicks in the past. Not only that, but he would see a nice uptick in production with Thomas out.
- Additional Bank Shot Plays – DeMarcus Cousins, Derrick Williams, Ben McLemore
Memphis at Utah
- Vegas Line – Memphis -7.5, 184 Over/Under
- Memphis Proj. Starters – Conley-Lee-Prince-Randolph-Gasol
- Utah Proj. Starters – Burke-Hayward-Jefferson-Favors-Kanter
Memphis
The final game of the night features two very slow paced teams. The Jazz are only averaging 93 possessions per game and the Grizzlies only average 92 possessions per game. The total for this one is set at only 184 points which is one of the lowest totals of the night. The Jazz are not a great team defensively, but the Grizzlies are a tough team to predict on a night in and night out basis. Tony Allen missed their last game and is he is forced to sit out again, give a small fantasy boost to Courtney Lee.
- Mike Conley – Conley has really been playing well lately and posted 37.5 FP’s in his last outing against the Jazz. The Jazz are ranked 21st against PG’s this season and the fact that this game is being played in Utah should mean that it will stay close enough for Conley to his his usual number of minutes.
- Additional Bank Shot Plays – Marc Gasol, Zach Randolph, Courtney Lee
Utah
I typically like to avoid all players against the Grizzlies. They play at one of the slowest paces in the league, they are giving up the 3rd fewest points per game this season, and they are ranked 10th or better against all five positions on the floor. I don’t mind some of the Jazz players as GPP plays tonight and I actually don’t mind Kanter as a cash game play.
- Enes Kanter – Kanter is averaging over 35 minutes per game in his last 3 games and posted 27 FP’s in his last meeting against the Grizzlies. His price is still cheap across the industry and I think he can reach that 25 FP mark again tonight.
- Additional Bank Shot Plays – Gordon Hayward, Derrick Favors