NBA Preview Pt. 4: Opening Night Fever
There are only 3 games on the official opening night for the NBA season, which I absolutely hate for daily fantasy formats. The variance will be minimal and you have to be deadly correct to win any type of GPP. With that said, it also means I can take some time and go next level with all of the individual players. In the final part of the NBA preview I have full projections for each player, their salaries on every site that has launched NBA games thus far, and their $ spent per fantasy point value ratings.
The projections I ran were relatively simple. They were a function of the players statistics from 2011-12 and their opponent statistics against that players position. From there I made a bunch of tweaks to guys in new roles, on new squads or rookies, or the rare Jeff Green scenario. It’s not perfect but it gets all these players in one place for you with their salaries and a solid idea of where you might be able to find some solid value for opening night!
Good luck and if you ever have any daily fantasy hoops questions feel free to PM me or send me an email Ethan@RotoGrinders.com
▾ NOTE: All Tables are sortable. Just click the header of each column to sort!
Forwards Projections and Salaries
| FORWARD | Proj. FP | DS | FD | DD | DJ | SS | DK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeBron James | 37.48 | $22,402 | $9,900 | $20,450 | $203,000 | $18,000 | $11,100 |
| Pau Gasol | 30.07 | $17,266 | $7,900 | $16,400 | $156,000 | $13,972 | $8,200 |
| Dirk Nowitzki | 0.00 | $15,433 | $8,200 | $14,200 | $153,000 | $13,390 | $7,400 |
| Paul Pierce | 29.67 | $13,948 | $7,400 | $13,750 | $142,000 | $12,595 | $7,000 |
| Nene Hilario | 24.25 | $13,175 | $6,900 | $11,350 | $122,000 | $9,853 | $7,700 |
| Elton Brand | 23.19 | $11,741 | $6,200 | $11,050 | $88,000 | $7,831 | $5,700 |
| Shawn Marion | 21.66 | $10,731 | $6,200 | $10,050 | $96,000 | $8,658 | $5,300 |
| Brandon Bass | 20.93 | $10,161 | $6,000 | $10,250 | $82,000 | $6,596 | $5,200 |
| Trevor Booker | 15.00 | $10,019 | $5,700 | $8,800 | $55,000 | $4,500 | $4,400 |
| Antawn Jamison | 19.83 | $9,868 | $6,600 | $9,700 | $59,000 | $6,377 | $5,100 |
| Tristan Thompson | 18.04 | $9,787 | $5,700 | $9,200 | $100,000 | $9,802 | $5,900 |
| Kevin Seraphin | 17.30 | $8,731 | $6,200 | $7,450 | $55,000 | $6,221 | $5,000 |
| Jared Sullinger | 12.10 | $8,019 | $4,900 | $7,000 | $55,000 | $4,500 | $3,000 |
| Udonis Haslem | 16.28 | $7,949 | $4,700 | $7,300 | $72,000 | $6,602 | $3,600 |
| Jan Vesely | 14.08 | $7,918 | $5,400 | $7,850 | $73,000 | $6,548 | $3,400 |
| Jeff Green | 21.20 | $7,903 | $6,000 | $7,600 | #N/A | $4,972 | $3,800 |
| Brandan Wright | 15.66 | $7,903 | $4,700 | $7,300 | $55,000 | $4,500 | $3,300 |
| Rashard Lewis | 15.44 | $7,681 | $5,100 | $9,000 | $55,000 | $4,500 | $3,000 |
| Metta World Peace | 16.64 | $7,413 | $6,100 | $6,750 | $68,000 | $6,189 | $3,900 |
| Jon Leuer | 12.10 | $6,521 | $4,200 | $3,000 | #N/A | $4,500 | $3,000 |
| Chris Wilcox | 12.71 | $6,191 | $3,400 | $6,050 | #N/A | $4,500 | $3,000 |
| Omri Casspi | 10.00 | $6,090 | $4,800 | $5,600 | $55,000 | $4,500 | $3,000 |
| Chris Singleton | 14.11 | $5,964 | $4,600 | $6,500 | $55,000 | $4,500 | $3,000 |
| Samardo Samuels | 12.63 | $5,515 | $4,700 | $6,000 | $55,000 | $4,500 | $3,500 |
| Luke Harangody | 10.22 | $4,964 | $4,100 | $5,250 | $55,000 | $4,500 | $3,000 |
| Earl Clark | 0.00 | $4,449 | $4,600 | $5,300 | #N/A | $4,500 | $3,000 |
Forwards I LOVE
- Jeff Green – Hands down he’s my top value pick for opening night. The man is playing like he has new life(probably because he does.) It might only be preseason but Green played with a sense of urgency that critics had knocked him for lacking for years. He’ll play big minutes off the bench to help on LeBron and should contribute a 15 point, 7 rebound performance.
- Brandan Wright – Filling in for Dirk won’t be easy but the minutes on the court Wright should get will allow him to pick up a bunch of rebounds and some scrap buckets. Don’t overthink this too much, just save money on Wright.
Forwards I HATE
- Antawn Jamison – This is not the Antawn Jamison who could shoot whenever he felt like it and pretty much do whatever he wanted in Cleveland. This is one that will play scattered minutes and be the 3rd or 4th option on the court 90% of the time.
- Washington Forwards – This whole front court is a mess and I would say just avoid it altogether. Nene is questionable at Center but will play through pain if he goes. Vesely is the starting PF but will split minutes with Booker and Seraphin is hurt as well. Too much confusion and concern here. Avoid on opening night and wait until there’s some clear sense of who can contribute in Washington.
Guards Projections and Salaries
| NAME | Fantasy Points | DS | FD | DD | DJ | SS | DK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dwyane Wade | 27.18 | $17,635 | $8,900 | $16,150 | $170,000 | $14,874 | $8,200 |
| Rajon Rondo | 37.14 | $16,685 | $8,300 | $14,250 | $144,000 | $13,368 | $8,100 |
| Kobe Bryant | 30.09 | $15,978 | $8,500 | $16,050 | $173,000 | $15,109 | $9,000 |
| Kyrie Irving | 34.36 | $15,509 | $7,400 | $14,000 | $158,000 | $13,970 | $9,200 |
| Steve Nash | 21.27 | $13,807 | $6,200 | $12,600 | $124,000 | $11,453 | $6,700 |
| Trevor Ariza | 20.01 | $11,453 | $5,900 | $12,050 | $111,000 | $9,870 | $5,900 |
| O.J. Mayo | 17.96 | $10,585 | $5,500 | $11,100 | $110,000 | #N/A | $5,900 |
| Alonzo Gee | 13.90 | $10,484 | $5,700 | $10,700 | $74,000 | $4,500 | $5,800 |
| Darren Collison | 17.29 | $10,433 | $5,100 | $10,000 | $103,000 | $9,239 | $5,900 |
| Jason Terry | 16.50 | $10,095 | $6,000 | $10,150 | $93,000 | $7,490 | $4,800 |
| Jordan Crawford | 18.48 | $10,039 | $6,100 | $8,550 | $70,000 | $6,135 | $6,200 |
| Mario Chalmers | 15.76 | $9,221 | $5,800 | $8,450 | $65,000 | $5,726 | $4,300 |
| Courtney Lee | 18.58 | $8,848 | $6,000 | $8,550 | $66,000 | $5,816 | $4,400 |
| Ray Allen | 12.00 | $8,459 | $5,600 | $9,150 | $76,000 | $6,620 | $4,300 |
| Rodrigue Beaubois | 15.82 | $8,338 | $5,000 | $7,150 | $55,000 | $4,859 | $4,400 |
| Delonte West | 15.78 | $8,327 | $5,200 | $7,150 | $55,000 | $4,500 | $3,000 |
| Bradley Beal | 18.60 | $8,171 | #N/A | $8,100 | $82,000 | $7,147 | $5,800 |
| Vince Carter | 16.20 | $7,817 | $5,600 | $7,600 | $61,000 | $5,839 | $3,300 |
| C.J. Miles | 17.30 | $7,035 | $4,900 | $6,400 | $55,000 | #N/A | $5,800 |
| Leandro Barbosa | 7.00 | $6,949 | #N/A | $3,800 | #N/A | #N/A | $4,300 |
| Daniel Gibson | 13.49 | $6,929 | $3,500 | $7,400 | $55,000 | $4,500 | $3,200 |
| Dion Waiters | 19.30 | $6,706 | $5,200 | $6,600 | $83,000 | $7,299 | $5,000 |
| Donald Sloan | 10.91 | $6,550 | $4,600 | $6,400 | $55,000 | $4,500 | $3,000 |
| Martell Webster | 6.00 | $6,237 | $5,000 | $6,100 | #N/A | $4,500 | $3,000 |
| Jodie Meeks | 8.00 | $5,903 | $4,000 | $6,500 | $55,000 | $4,787 | $3,000 |
| Norris Cole | 10.46 | $5,661 | $3,600 | $5,900 | $55,000 | $4,500 | $3,000 |
| Steve Blake | 11.02 | $5,388 | $4,600 | $4,650 | $55,000 | $4,500 | $3,000 |
| Shane Battier | 11.07 | $5,378 | $5,000 | $5,150 | $68,000 | $6,064 | $3,000 |
| Cartier Martin | 14.00 | $5,282 | $4,800 | $3,800 | #N/A | $4,500 | $3,000 |
| Chris Douglas-Roberts | 0.00 | $5,050 | $4,700 | #N/A | #N/A | $4,500 | $3,000 |
| A.J. Price | 15.20 | $4,974 | $3,800 | $9,650 | $55,000 | #N/A | $3,000 |
| Chris Duhon | 9.22 | $4,833 | $3,900 | $4,300 | #N/A | $4,500 | $3,000 |
| Mike Miller | 3.00 | $4,495 | $4,300 | $3,550 | #N/A | $4,500 | $3,000 |
| Dahntay Jones | 9.77 | $4,222 | $3,900 | $4,200 | $55,000 | $4,500 | $3,000 |
| Dominique Jones | 5.00 | $3,176 | $3,900 | $3,000 | #N/A | $4,500 | $3,000 |
| James Jones | 5.00 | $2,535 | $3,600 | $3,000 | #N/A | $4,500 | $3,000 |
Guards I LOVE
- Kyrie Irving – Kyrie should come out firing against an abysmal Wizards defense and light up opening night. No sophomore slump here, he’s my #2 Guard for next Tuesday evening behind Rajon Rondo.
- C.J. Miles – Value is king and Miles earned a starting role in Cleveland and will now get plenty of minutes to fill up the stat sheet. Minutes mean everything in NBA daily fantasy people, get used to it.
- O.J. Mayo – With Dirk out, someone has to step up and take over the role of leading scorer for the Mavs. Mayo is new to Dallas and should put up a ton of shots on opening night. The Lakers will probably blow them out late, but Mayo has the most potential for a huge game for Dallas.
Guards I HATE
- Steve Nash – Not sold on Nash in LA at all yet. Kobe has always flourished with a PG who acts more like a shooting guard and is willing to defer to Kobe on occasion to bring up the ball. They will find a way to work together, but opening night could prove worrisome. Avoid Nash.
- Alonzo Gee – His price tag is high on a bunch of sites because of the starter role he was supposed to fill and the big play at the end of last year. He finds himself coming off the bench and while he still should play good minutes, the benching is a sign of Gee not quite clicking right now. He’s off his game, so keep him off your lineups.
Centers Projections and Salaries
| NAME | Fantasy Points | DS | FD | DD | DJ | SS | DK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dwight Howard | 36.08 | $19,301 | $9,000 | $17,650 | $182,000 | $16,238 | $10,200 |
| Kevin Garnett | 26.57 | $14,832 | $7,900 | $13,100 | $139,000 | $12,485 | $7,100 |
| Chris Bosh | 29.24 | $14,519 | $7,100 | $13,400 | $142,000 | $12,613 | $6,900 |
| Anderson Varejao | 29.94 | $14,044 | $6,800 | $12,300 | $102,000 | $9,253 | $7,000 |
| Chris Kaman | 23.76 | $11,963 | $7,100 | $10,200 | $125,000 | $11,120 | $7,100 |
| Emeka Okafor | 20.87 | $10,721 | $6,000 | $9,450 | $88,000 | $7,862 | $6,100 |
| Jordan Hill | 11.00 | $6,833 | $4,700 | $6,350 | $55,000 | $4,920 | $3,800 |
| Tyler Zeller | 13.00 | $6,363 | $4,900 | $5,500 | $55,000 | $4,500 | $3,900 |
| Darko Milicic | 12.20 | $6,131 | $4,500 | $3,000 | #N/A | #N/A | $3,000 |
| Joel Anthony | 10.20 | $5,530 | $4,200 | $5,800 | $55,000 | $4,500 | $3,000 |
| Fab Melo | 0.00 | $5,303 | $3,400 | $4,650 | $55,000 | $4,500 | $3,000 |
Centers I LOVE
- Dwight Howard – The cop out pick is an easy one here. He has a match-up against one of the worst defenses versus Centers last year and should be hungry to get back on the court. 20/20 night for D-12 to open up his LAKERS CAREER. If you’re gonna spend on a superstar I’d recommend Dwight #1.
- Anderson Varejao – Remember the shaky Wizards frontcourt I mentioned earlier? Well Varejao is ready to tear them apart. He and Kyrie should have no issue getting whatever they want against Washington’s weak defense. He’s a scrapper who gets a ton of boards as well and will be a touch underpriced on most sites because of his injuries to end last season.
Centers I HATE
- Chris Kaman – Going up against D-12 is gonna be a blast for the slow, fundamentally sound Kaman. Pause…naht. Kaman did say the other day he will play in the opener but I still can’t see a way he’s healthy enough to contribute let alone beat up on one of the best defensive centers in the NBA.
Forwards $/Fantasy Point
| FORWARD | Proj. FP | DS $/Pt | FD $/Pt | DD $/Pt | DJ $/Pt | SS $/Pt | DK $/Pt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeBron James | 37.48 | $597.75 | $264.16 | $545.66 | $5,416.58 | $480.29 | $296.18 |
| Pau Gasol | 30.07 | $574.29 | $262.76 | $545.48 | $5,188.76 | $464.73 | $272.74 |
| Dirk Nowitzki | 0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Paul Pierce | 29.67 | $470.06 | $249.39 | $463.39 | $4,785.58 | $424.47 | $235.91 |
| Nene Hilario (Q) | 24.25 | $543.24 | $284.51 | $467.99 | $5,030.41 | $406.27 | $317.49 |
| Elton Brand | 23.19 | $506.24 | $267.33 | $476.45 | $3,794.33 | $337.65 | $245.77 |
| Shawn Marion | 21.66 | $495.37 | $286.21 | $463.94 | $4,431.62 | $399.68 | $244.66 |
| Brandon Bass | 20.93 | $485.42 | $286.64 | $489.67 | $3,917.35 | $315.11 | $248.42 |
| Trevor Booker | 15.00 | $667.93 | $380.00 | $586.67 | $3,666.67 | $300.00 | $293.33 |
| Antawn Jamison | 19.83 | $497.63 | $332.83 | $489.16 | $2,975.29 | $321.58 | $257.19 |
| Tristan Thompson | 18.04 | $542.44 | $315.92 | $509.91 | $5,542.47 | $543.27 | $327.01 |
| Kevin Seraphin | 17.30 | $504.68 | $358.38 | $430.64 | $3,179.19 | $359.60 | $289.02 |
| Jared Sullinger | 12.10 | $662.73 | $404.96 | $578.51 | $4,545.45 | $371.90 | $247.93 |
| Udonis Haslem | 16.28 | $488.42 | $288.79 | $448.54 | $4,423.96 | $405.65 | $221.20 |
| Jan Vesely | 14.08 | $562.56 | $383.66 | $557.73 | $5,186.50 | $465.22 | $241.56 |
| Jeff Green | 21.20 | $372.78 | $283.02 | $358.49 | #N/A | $234.53 | $179.25 |
| Brandan Wright | 15.66 | $504.58 | $300.08 | $466.08 | $3,511.57 | $287.31 | $210.69 |
| Rashard Lewis | 15.44 | $497.64 | $330.42 | $583.09 | $3,563.33 | $291.55 | $194.36 |
| Metta World Peace | 16.64 | $445.49 | $366.59 | $405.65 | $4,086.54 | $371.94 | $234.38 |
| Jon Leuer | 12.10 | $539.15 | $347.25 | $248.04 | #N/A | $372.05 | $248.04 |
| Chris Wilcox | 12.71 | $487.00 | $267.45 | $475.91 | #N/A | $353.98 | $235.99 |
| Omri Casspi | 10.00 | $609.00 | $480.00 | $560.00 | $5,500.00 | $450.00 | $300.00 |
| Chris Singleton | 14.11 | $422.60 | $325.95 | $460.58 | $3,897.25 | $318.87 | $212.58 |
| Samardo Samuels | 12.63 | $436.75 | $372.20 | $475.15 | $4,355.57 | $356.37 | $277.17 |
| Luke Harangody | 10.22 | $485.71 | $401.17 | $513.70 | $5,381.60 | $440.31 | $293.54 |
| Earl Clark | 0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
Guards $/Fantasy Point
| NAME | Proj. FP | DS $/Pt | FD $/Pt | DD $/Pt | DJ $/Pt | SS $/Pt | DK $/Pt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dwyane Wade | 27.18 | $648.82 | $327.45 | $594.19 | $6,254.60 | $547.24 | $301.69 |
| Rajon Rondo | 37.14 | $449.31 | $223.51 | $383.74 | $3,877.74 | $359.98 | $218.12 |
| Kobe Bryant | 30.09 | $531.05 | $282.51 | $533.44 | $5,749.90 | $502.17 | $299.13 |
| Kyrie Irving | 34.36 | $451.37 | $215.37 | $407.45 | $4,598.37 | $406.58 | $267.75 |
| Steve Nash | 21.27 | $649.21 | $291.52 | $592.45 | $5,830.49 | $538.52 | $315.03 |
| Trevor Ariza | 20.01 | $572.29 | $294.82 | $602.12 | $5,546.53 | $493.19 | $294.82 |
| O.J. Mayo | 17.96 | $589.53 | $306.32 | $618.21 | $6,126.43 | #N/A | $328.60 |
| Alonzo Gee | 13.90 | $754.24 | $410.07 | $769.78 | $5,323.74 | $323.74 | $417.27 |
| Darren Collison | 17.29 | $603.50 | $295.01 | $578.45 | $5,958.06 | $534.43 | $341.29 |
| Jason Terry | 16.50 | $611.82 | $363.64 | $615.15 | $5,636.36 | $453.94 | $290.91 |
| Jordan Crawford | 18.48 | $543.16 | $330.04 | $462.60 | $3,787.37 | $331.94 | $335.45 |
| Mario Chalmers | 15.76 | $585.09 | $368.02 | $536.17 | $4,124.37 | $363.32 | $272.84 |
| Courtney Lee | 18.58 | $476.34 | $323.01 | $460.30 | $3,553.16 | $313.11 | $236.88 |
| Ray Allen | 12.00 | $704.92 | $466.67 | $762.50 | $6,333.33 | $551.67 | $358.33 |
| Rodrigue Beaubois | 15.82 | $527.14 | $316.11 | $452.03 | $3,477.16 | $307.19 | $278.17 |
| Delonte West | 15.78 | $527.69 | $329.53 | $453.11 | $3,485.42 | $285.17 | $190.11 |
| Bradley Beal | 18.60 | $439.30 | #N/A | $435.48 | $4,408.60 | $384.25 | $311.83 |
| Vince Carter | 16.20 | $482.53 | $345.68 | $469.14 | $3,765.43 | $360.43 | $203.70 |
| C.J. Miles | 17.30 | $406.65 | $283.24 | $369.94 | $3,179.19 | #N/A | $335.26 |
| Leandro Barbosa | 7.00 | $992.71 | #N/A | $542.86 | #N/A | #N/A | $614.29 |
| Daniel Gibson | 13.49 | $513.83 | $259.55 | $548.76 | $4,078.61 | $333.70 | $237.30 |
| Dion Waiters | 19.30 | $347.46 | $269.43 | $341.97 | $4,300.52 | $378.19 | $259.07 |
| Donald Sloan | 10.91 | $600.64 | $421.82 | $586.89 | $5,043.56 | $412.65 | $275.10 |
| Martell Webster | 6.00 | $1,039.50 | $833.33 | $1,016.67 | #N/A | $750.00 | $500.00 |
| Jodie Meeks | 8.00 | $737.88 | $500.00 | $812.50 | $6,875.00 | $598.38 | $375.00 |
| Norris Cole | 10.46 | $541.33 | $344.25 | $564.19 | $5,259.38 | $430.31 | $286.88 |
| Steve Blake | 11.02 | $488.82 | $417.33 | $421.86 | $4,989.79 | $408.26 | $272.17 |
| Shane Battier | 11.07 | $485.71 | $451.57 | $465.12 | $6,141.34 | $547.66 | $270.94 |
| Cartier Martin | 14.00 | $377.35 | $342.92 | $271.48 | #N/A | $321.49 | $214.32 |
| Chris Douglas-Roberts | 0.00 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #N/A | #N/A | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! |
| A.J. Price | 15.20 | $327.24 | $250.00 | $634.87 | $3,618.42 | #N/A | $197.37 |
| Chris Duhon | 9.22 | $524.04 | $422.88 | $466.25 | #N/A | $487.94 | $325.29 |
| Mike Miller | 3.00 | $1,498.33 | $1,433.33 | $1,183.33 | #N/A | $1,500.00 | $1,000.00 |
| Dahntay Jones | 9.77 | $432.36 | $399.39 | $430.11 | $5,632.36 | $460.83 | $307.22 |
| Dominique Jones | 5.00 | $635.20 | $780.00 | $600.00 | #N/A | $900.00 | $600.00 |
| James Jones | 5.00 | $507.00 | $720.00 | $600.00 | #N/A | $900.00 | $600.00 |
Centers $/Fantasy Point
| NAME | Proj. FP | DS $/Pt | FD $/Pt | DD $/Pt | DJ $/Pt | SS $/Pt | DK $/Pt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dwight Howard | 36.08 | $534.95 | $249.45 | $489.19 | $5,044.35 | $450.06 | $282.71 |
| Kevin Garnett | 26.57 | $558.17 | $297.30 | $492.99 | $5,230.97 | $469.85 | $267.19 |
| Chris Bosh | 29.24 | $496.63 | $242.86 | $458.35 | $4,857.19 | $431.43 | $236.02 |
| Anderson Varejao | 29.94 | $469.15 | $227.16 | $410.89 | $3,407.38 | $309.10 | $233.84 |
| Chris Kaman | 23.76 | $503.60 | $298.88 | $429.38 | $5,262.05 | $468.11 | $298.88 |
| Emeka Okafor | 20.87 | $513.70 | $287.49 | $452.80 | $4,216.58 | $376.71 | $292.29 |
| Jordan Hill | 11.00 | $621.18 | $427.27 | $577.27 | $5,000.00 | $447.27 | $345.45 |
| Tyler Zeller | 13.00 | $489.46 | $376.92 | $423.08 | $4,230.77 | $346.15 | $300.00 |
| Darko Milicic | 12.20 | $502.54 | $368.85 | $245.90 | #N/A | #N/A | $245.90 |
| Joel Anthony | 10.20 | $542.16 | $411.76 | $568.63 | $5,392.16 | $441.18 | $294.12 |
| Fab Melo | 0.00 | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! | #DIV/0! |
GOOD LUCK ON OPENING NIGHT GRINDERS. VIVA LA NBA