NBA Trend Blend: Tuesday, January 10th
Defense versus Position isn’t everything – pace isn’t everything – defensive rating isn’t everything, but the combination of trends and metrics is something; it’s the NBA Trend Blend.
Admittedly, there is no single article or tool that you can use to build perfect lineups night in and night out, but this will be another awesome article/tool that you can use to gain an edge over the competition. Some may look at one tool/trend and make decisions solely based on a narrow set of data, but we will dive in to take a deeper look at some of the best plays on the slate.
This article will feature some of my favorite plays (and occasionally overrated plays) at each position based on DvP, pace, defensive rating, and other factors.
DRtg/A – An estimate of points allowed per 100 possessions adjusted for strength of opponent offense
Pace – Possessions per game
DvP – Defense versus Position
Slate Info
Games
Nine
Highest O/U
Charlotte Hornets @ Houston Rockets – 225.5
Lowest O/U
Cleveland Cavaliers @ Utah Jazz – 201
Highest Projected Total
Houston Rockets – 117.5
Golden State Warriors – 117.5
Lowest Projected Total
Chicago Bulls – 96
Largest Spread
Golden State Warriors – 15.5-point favorites over Miami Heat
Closest Spread
Portland Trail Blazers – 1.5-point favorites over Los Angeles Lakers
Favorite Game To Stack
Portland Trail Blazers @ Los Angeles Lakers
Point Guard
Favorites
Damian Lillard ($9,000 DK – $8,900 FD) – After coming back from injury, Lillard’s price is back up to where it has been for much of the season. The player and the matchup certainly warrant the price tag. This game features the closest spread of the night and the second highest total of the slate. The Lakers rank 26th in PG DvP, 11th in pace and 28th in DRtg/A. The Lakers are allowing the second most made three pointers to opposing PGs in the NBA allowing with the third most assists. Everything here sets up extremely well for Lillard, and he’s in play for both cash games and tournaments.
Dennis Schroder ($6,700 DK – $6,900 FD) – The Hawks come into this game as eight point road favorites against the Nets. The Nets are atrocious across the board when it comes to defense. Specifically, they rank 30th in PG DvP, 26th in DRtg/A and they play at the fastest pace in the NBA. Schroder finds himself in one of the best possible matchups possible. The Nets allow the most steals, assists and rebounds to opposing PGs in the association, along with the fifth most real life points. This should be a spot for Schroder to smash.
Others worth mentioning
John Wall
Isaiah Thomas
Stephen Curry
Kyle Lowry
Goran Dragic
D’Angelo Russell
George Hill
Malcolm Brogdon
Patrick Beverley
Shooting Guard
Favorites
Jeremy Lamb ($5,100 DK – $4,000 FD) – Lamb is close to a must play on FD at his ridiculously low price. Frankly, he’s a value on DK in this spot as well. With Nicolas Batum off the court, Lamb owns the second highest usage percentage on the Hornets at a juicy 26%. Batum is listed as doubtful, and Lamb should once again draw the start. This time, Lamb will get the Harden treatment, which is taxing on defense, but liberating on offense. Lamb should be able to get his shot in this spot. The Rockets play at the fifth fastest pace in the NBA, and they rank 25th in SG DvP. This game has the highest O/U of the night, and you’d be wise to get a piece of two of this game, especially one that represents such great value.
Others worth mentioning
James Harden
DeMar DeRozan
C.J. McCollum
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope
Marcus Smart (PG on FD)
Denzel Valentine
Small Forward
Favorites
Kawhi Leonard ($7,900 DK – $8,300 FD) – Kawhi has put up a few duds in two of his last four games, but he’s as capable as ever to take over a game and put up massive numbers. Milwaukee ranks 29th in SF DvP and they allow opposing SFs top ten numbers in rebounds, assists and real life points as well as the most 3PM in the NBA. The Bucks play at a slightly faster pace than the Spurs, though neither team plays particularly quickly, and Milwaukee ranks just below average in DRtg/A. When Kawhi is on the court, he leads the Spurs in usage at 31.9%. This is a sneaky spot to target him as the spread and O/U may scare others away. He’s fine in cash and GPP. Update – with LMA due to miss this game with stomach issues (to put it mildly), that only enhances the USG and opportunity for Kawhi to produce in a big way tonight.
Doug McDermott ($4,400 DK – $4,000 FD) – There is not a lot of sample size for what happens with the Bulls offense when Jimmy Butler and Dwyane Wade are off the court, but that will be the case for the entire game tonight. McDermott will likely draw the start, but even if he doesn’t, he’ll see somewhere around 30 minutes either way. This play is all about value. Washington are big favorites with Chicago short handed in this spot, but that doesn’t mean we should shy away from clear value. The Wizards are respectable in SF DvP where they rank 12th, but they struggle mightily in DRtg/A (22nd). McDermott should see enough minutes and usage to meet value tonight, though I prefer him in cash games, as his ceiling is likely capped at 30-34 FPTS.
Others worth mentioning
LeBron James
Kevin Durant
Otto Porter
Trevor Ariza
Markieff Morris
Luol Deng
Brandon Ingram
Tim Hardaway Jr.
Power Forward
Favorites
Paul Millsap ($7,800 DK – $8,100 FD) – Millsap is arguably the safest play at the position in the upper tier. Everything about this spot lines up beautifully. Brooklyn ranks 27th in PF DvP, 25th in rebounding differential, first in pace and 25th in DRtg/A. Millsap has been underwhelming for much of the season, but has been hot recently with four 40+ FPTS performances in his last five games, including a massive 32 and 13 against the Spurs last week. Millsap trails only Dennis Schroder in usage on this team, and he averages over 1.1 FPTS per minute. Given this matchup and the up-tick in pace, I think Millsap is a great bet to crush value. He has the safe floor for cash, and the high ceiling for tournaments.
Al-Farouq Aminu ($5,100 DK – $4,600 FD) – Aminu is a sneaky play here. If choosing a PF from this game, most people will likely gravitate towards the sexier name in Julius Randle. Much of the Trail Blazers struggles against opposing PF’s (30th in DvP) has been due to the extended absence of Aminu, but guess who ranks 29th in PF DvP – that’s right, the Lakers. Last week in this same matchup, Aminu put up 33.3 DK FPTS at $4,400 while Randle put up 36.8 DK FPTS at $7,100. Which would you rather have had? Right. Since his return from injury, Aminu has seen steady minutes, including 33 or more in his last four games.
Others worth mentioning
Draymond Green
Julius Randle
Jabari Parker
LaMarcus Aldridge is Out – David Lee
Tobias Harris
Patrick Patterson
Center
Favorites
Cristiano Felicio ($3,000 DK – $3,500 FD) – Felicio will likely be a popular value play tonight, and for good reason. He is min price on both sites, but he has seen 24 or more minutes in each of his last two games, and has been far more productive than starter Robin Lopez. The Wizards rank 12th in C DvP, so the matchup isn’t fool-proof, but Washington is well below average in rebounding differential to go along with their 22nd rank in DRtg/A. If you need salary relief, it looks like Felicio has carved out a solid role for himself on this squad.
Dwight Howard ($7,500 DK – $7,600 FD) – Like his frontcourt partner Paul Millsap, this spot is great for Howard as well. As mentioned, Brooklyn struggles across the board defensively, and they are woeful in rebounding, especially against the C position. Brooklyn ranks 29th in rebounds earned by the C position per game. Howard should be able to collect points, rebounds and blocks with relative ease against this lethargic frontcourt in Brooklyn.
Others worth mentioning
DeMarcus Cousins
Andre Drummond
Hassan Whiteside
Greg Monroe
Al Horford
Mason Plumlee
Pau Gasol
Montrezl Harrell
Zaza Pachulia
Timofey Mozgov
Tendencies To Exploit
This is from Friday of last week, but it’s still stuck in my head, so here it is again!
“The Boxer” is one of my favorite songs written by Simon and Garfunkle. In that song, one verse reads, “all lies and jest – still a man hears what he wants to hear and he disregards the rest….” Those lyrics are profoundly true in life and in DFS. Reading an article for the sole purpose and hope of confirming things that you are leaning towards is a dangerous way to do research. Keep an open mind and be willing to hear something other than what you expect or want to hear. Simply put, don’t disregard the rest, both in life and in DFS.
Give me a shout out on twitter when you win the money tonight! Thanks for reading.