NFL Betting Picks: Best Player Props for Week 14
It’s beginning to look a lot like… Week 14 in the NFL. Last week, I just missed the ever-elusive sweep. Lamar Jackson did not come remotely close to his passing prop while Josh Jacobs established the run in Kansas City despite being down by multiple scores. Darius Slayton… fell two yards shy of going over his yardage prop. Holiday tilt! This week, there are thirteen games on Sunday afternoon for the picking. Can we find a holiday sweep?
Check out our Week 14 Lines and Betting Picks and some NFL betting tips before diving into all of the online sportsbooks. Here are my three favorite props for NFL Week 13.
NFL Betting Picks Week 14 — QB Player Prop for Dolphins at Jets
Ryan Fitzpatrick Over/Under 249.5 Passing Yards (use our DraftKings)
Oh, ho, ho, Fitzmagic, you know… Never believe, it’s not so.
Fond memories of Ryan Fitzpatrick leading the Jets to… almost making the playoffs in 2015 will forever live within me. The game-winning pass to Eric Decker against the Patriots. The numerous times he likely concussed himself running for first downs. The man was… is a warrior. I am, well, I am pretty biased.
Yet, Fitzpatrick’s opponent frees me from my bias as the Jets have consistently allowed copious amounts of passing yards. The Jets allow an average of 242.2 passing yards per game and 37.2 passing attempts per game. In the first meeting between the teams, Fitzpatrick threw for 266 yards in Miami’s first victory. Last week, the Dolphins defeated the Eagles behind 351 passing yards from Fitzpatrick. With the loss of Kalen Ballage, the Dolphins are down to a very young committee starring our Laird and savior (credit Peter Overzet) and Myles Gaskin. Patrick Laird might be an intriguing DFS option but I am more interested in the passing game. Give me the over on this yardage total.
My Pick: Over 249.5 Passing Yards +105
NFL Betting Picks Week 14 — RB Player Prop for 49ers at Saints
Alvin Kamara Over/Under 5.5 Receptions (DraftKings)
An intriguing daily fantasy option at a cheap $7,000 price tag, Alvin Kamara faces the stingiest of defenses in Week 14 — the San Francisco 49ers.
The Saints and 49ers will both be highly motivated to win this contest as both teams continue to jockey for NFC playoff positioning. Kamara should be a full go and Drew Brees will be looking for an escape valve throughout a game where he will likely be under siege. The 49ers lead the NFL with a 11.31% sack rate in 2019.
Kamara was targeted 8, 9, 10, and 10 times since returning from injury — converting 31 of those targets for receptions. The 49ers defense has only allowed 63 targets to running backs (second-best) but also has not played the Saints in New Orleans. This game might not be an offensive masterpiece for the Saints and he might not accumulate many yards, but Kamara should see plenty of short targets as Drew Brees looks to escape pressure. Give me the over.
My Pick: Over 5.5 Receptions +105
NFL Betting Picks Week 14 — WR Player Prop for Chiefs at Patriots
Julian Edelman Over/Under 75.5 Receiving Yards (use our FanDuel)
In what most will consider the game of the week, the Patriots will meet the Chiefs in a rematch of last year’s AFC Championship game on Sunday afternoon. The Patriots’ defense is highly ranked and has suffocated opposing offenses throughout the season. The Chiefs offense — behind the playcalling of Andy Reid and passing of Patrick Mahomes — is nearing full-health as they make their run towards the playoffs. Unstoppable force. Immovable object. Cliche SZN.
One consistent piece of the Patriots’ offense — the only consistent piece — has been Julian Edelman. Accumulating 123 targets and 82 receptions, there is no questioning who Tom’s favorite target is in New England. Up against a defense with an improving sack rate, Edelman will surely be targeted on many quick passes. He already has double-digit targets in seven straight contests with 12 in each of New England’s last two games.
Kansas City has limited fantasy points to wide receivers this season with their 26.69 points per game ranking second in the NFL. That said, Edelman does not need to put forth a massive fantasy performance to climb over this total. We get a bit of a bargain on FanDuel as DraftKings has Edelman at 77.5 for the same price. Give me the over on FanDuel.
My Pick: Over 75.5 Receiving Yards -112
Be sure to use RotoGrinders’ new NFL odds comparison tool to look at NFL Week 14 lines across the industry and find out what online sports betting site has the best price for your favorite NFL Week 14 betting picks.
Image Credit: USA Today Sports Images