NFL Betting Picks: Best Player Props for Week 4
The first bye week of the NFL season has arrived. The Week 4 slate will be a little pared down as we glean through sportsbooks for the best action on player props. Today, I focus on a couple of situations impacted by injury or player health and jump on my favorite prop of the year. So, without any further adieu, let’s take a look at this week’s top props.
Here are some NFL betting tips along with the three player props for NFL Week 4.
NFL Betting Picks Week 4 — QB Player Prop for Seahawks at Cardinals
Kyler Murray Over/Under 23.5 Rushing Yards (use our DraftKings promo code to get these odds)
We waste no time with my favorite prop pick of the week. With props just being released on DraftKings Sportsbook to get these odds, the Kyler Murray rushing yardage prop didn’t jump off the page — it triple-axled into a backflip directly onto my nose. 23.5 rushing yards? Where do I sign up? Oh yeah, DraftKings.
Murray was finally set free last week with clear run plays drawn up for the athletic dynamo. Murray’s speed is next level and it shows when being chased by lumbering linebackers and linemen. Murray accumulated 69 rushing yards on eight attempts.
But Joe, the Seahawks are only allowing eight yards per game on the ground to opposing quarterbacks. Correct. Yet, since when do Andy Dalton, Ben Roethlisberger, Mason Rudolph, or Teddy Bridgewater qualify as mobile quarterbacks? Murray compiled 1,001 yards on the ground in his final season as a Sooner. He very well might pick up this prop with a single carry. Book the over.
My Pick: Over 23.5 Rushing Yards -112
NFL Betting Picks Week 4 — RB Player Prop for Buccaneers at Rams
Malcolm Brown Over/Under 27.5 Rushing Yards (use our DraftKings promo code to get these odds)
Now, our first situational target is Malcolm Brown versus the Buccaneers at home. The Rams are nine-point home favorites at the time of this writing.
Brown has certainly received an inconsistent amount of volume this season as the backup for Todd Gurley. One thing is pretty clear though, despite coach-speak, Todd Gurley is continuing to be limited due to his arthritic knee. Brown only received three rushing attempts last week but saw six and eleven in the opening two weeks of the season. With the heavier volume, Brown approached five yards per carry until running into the rough game against the Cleveland Browns. The Rams were a short road favorite last week, however, and are firmly scripted to beat the Bucs up at home.
Assuming Gurley still attains his usual fifteen carries, Brown could get closer to double-digit carries if the Rams are ahead. The Buccaneers are ranked in the top five in the NFL in rushing yards allowed — only allowing 53.33 yards per game to the running back position. That said, the Bucs also have yet to feature in a completely negative game script on the road. Despite a stout rushing defense, the volume could be too much to keep Malcolm Brown under this paltry number. I will take the over.
My Pick: Over 27.5 Rushing Yards -109
NFL Betting Picks Week 4 — WR Player Prop for Patriots at Bills
Phillip Dorsett Over/Under 3.5 Receptions(use our DraftKings promo code to get these odds)
Finally, we land on our injury-induced prop pick of the week with Phillip Dorsett going over 3.5 receptions on DraftKings. The status of Julian Edelman after his chest injury remains cloudy as of Friday. Even without Edelman’s status confirmed, Dorsett seems to a new fixture in the Patriots’ high-scoring offense.
In the past, the Patriots seemed to be a team very content to exploit a weakness as a team built with every offensive utility at their disposal. A team cannot stop the run? Here, Sony Michel, have twenty carries. A team struggles to limit running back and slot targets? Time to eat Julian Edelman and James White. You get the picture.
The problem now is New England is without a few key cogs. Edelman seems doubtful. James Develin, the trusty fullback, is out — certainly hampering the Pats’ ability to ground-and-pound the Bills into submission. Antonio Brown is out… of this world with his recent social media activity after being released. Without some of these pieces, the Patriots will likely need to rely on the three-wide receiver sets that force a bigger role upon Dorsett’s shoulders.
Dorsett has produced. The three touchdowns are great but Dorsett opened the season converting all seven of his targets in the first two weeks. Last week, sans Brown and eventually Edelman, Dorsett converted six of seven targets. I don’t know if you watch the RedZone channel but I let me tell you… every time Brady throws the ball to Phillip Dorsett he seems to be WIDE open. Normally, this type of conversion rate seems unreasonable unless you are Michael Thomas but for the Patriots… ho-hum. Even against a really good Bills defense, I trust New England to scheme Dorsett enough looks to hop over this relatively low hurdle. Hammer the over.
My Pick: Over 3.5 Receptions -106
Be sure to use RotoGrinders’ new NFL odds comparison tool to look at NFL Week 4 lines across the industry and find out what online sports betting site has the best price for your favorite NFL Week 4 betting picks.
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