The NFL DFS Grind Down: Monday Night Football - Bucs vs. Chiefs
In this article, we will take a look at the top DraftKings and FanDuel picks for the Bucs vs. Chiefs, go over potential NFL DFS sleepers, and even take a look at some picks we can target on Fantasy Pick’em sites like Sleeper Fantasy ahead of this Monday Night Football matchup. As always, you can visit our NFL lineup optimizer, LineupHQ, to help you with your lineup-building process.
NFL DFS Showdown DraftKings Picks and Sleepers – Bucs vs. Chiefs
I expected a high-scoring, back-and-forth game between the Vikings and Colts on Sunday night. Spoiler alert: it was neither of those things. Perhaps the NFL should have kept my Jaguars in primetime instead of flexing them out. Hopefully, we’ll have a better game on Monday night. The Buccaneers are shorthanded in their receiving corps but are still alive in the playoff race with a 4-4 record. The Chiefs are the only undefeated team left in the NFL. Despite a perfect 7-0 record, there are six teams with a better point differential this season. This game features a 9-point spread and a 45.5-point total.
Key Injuries
Mike Evans – Out
Chris Godwin – Out
Bucky Irving – Questionable
Jalen McMillan – Questionable
Sterling Shepard – Questionable
Rashee Rice – Out
Isiah Pacheco – Out
JuJu Smith-Schuster – Out
Tampa Bay Bucs Preview
Baker Mayfield was having a career season before losing Chris Godwin and Mike Evans to injuries. In his first game without both of his star receivers in the lineup, he didn’t skip a beat. He went 37-of-50 (!!) for 330 yards and 3 touchdowns. I never expected this, but he has now topped 27 fantasy points in 5 games this season. He has a tougher matchup this week, but the game script should be in his favor. His rushing upside puts him on my radar for MVP and CPT.
We shouldn’t put too much stock into a 1-week sample, but here’s the usage for Tampa Bay’s wideouts in the first game without Mike Evans and Chris Godwin:
Jalen McMillan: 82% route percentage, 14% target rate, 30% air yards share
Trey Palmer: 71% route percentage, 4% target rate, 8% air yards share
Sterling Shepard: 69% route percentage, 8% target rate, 11% air yards share
Cade Otton: 75% route percentage, 20% target rate, 21% air yards share
We know Evans and Godwin are both out, but we also have to monitor the availability of Jalen McMillan and Sterling Shepard. They both logged a limited practice on Saturday and are listed as questionable. If one or both end up being out, Rakim Jarrett and Ryan Miller will see an uptick in snaps. While McMillan was the chalk that busted last week, his underlying usage was terrific — 82% route rate and 30% of the team’s air yards.
Trey Palmer was out there running wind sprints, as he only saw 1 target. If Shepard is active, he’ll man the slot. Inline receivers have had more success than outside ones against the Chiefs. Cade Otton is the easy click in this passing attack. The Chiefs are dead last in fantasy points allowed to tight ends (allowing 7 receptions for 81 yards per game on average). Over the last 2 weeks, Otton has caught 17-of-20 targets for 181 yards and 2 touchdowns.
Bucky Irving is dealing with a toe injury, but it sounds like it’s more of a pain tolerance issue than something he can aggravate. He’s listed as questionable for tonight but tentatively expected to suit up. Since moving to a three-running-back rotation, the Buccaneers have had quite a bit of success on the ground. This is good for their ability to win football games but bad for DFS. If Irving is active, I’ll side with him as my favorite. He turned his 16 touches into 84 yards last week. Rachaad White should continue to have a big role in the passing game, but the Chiefs have allowed the 2nd-fewest receiving yards per game to running backs.
The Buccaneers have given up at least 27 points in each of the last 4 games. They statistically have one of the worst defenses in the NFL. A fluke play could always happen (like the Colts D/ST scoring last night), but I won’t be prioritizing Tampa’s defense on this slate. I’m also hesitant to target kicker Chase McLaughlin, as the Buccaneers may not opt to kick field goals if they are down in the second half.
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Kansas City Chiefs Preview
Patrick Mahomes has led the Chiefs to a perfect 7-0 start, but he continues to underwhelm when it comes to fantasy production. He rarely cracked 20 fantasy points during last year’s regular season and has yet to crack 20 fantasy points in 7 games this season. We will likely need his high floor on this slate, but his lack of a ceiling makes him a less appealing option at MVP and CPT. This is certainly an exploitable matchup though, as the Buccaneers are dead last in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks.
Let’s take a look at the wideout usage for Kansas City in the games Rashee Rice has missed this season:
Xavier Worthy: 72% route percentage, 19% target rate, 37% air yards share
Justin Watson: 63% route percentage, 5% target rate, 7% air yards share
DeAndre Hopkins: 33% route percentage, 7% target rate, 22% air yards share
Travis Kelce: 81% route percentage, 26% target rate, 29% air yards share
We saw Rice go on a great run in the second half of his rookie season. While the Chiefs traded for DeAndre Hopkins, I’m still more excited about the prospects for Xavier Worthy. With Rice off the field this season, he’s seen 19% of the team’s targets and 37% of the team’s air yards. He’s yet to have a huge yardage game, but he has already scored 5 touchdowns this season. After only running a route on 33% of snaps last week, Hopkins should see a major uptick in snaps in his second week with the Chiefs. We have the two projected very close. I prefer Worthy in tournaments and Hopkins in cash games.
The Buccaneers are 26th in EPA against the pass, 28th in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers, and 27th in fantasy points allowed to tight ends. This is an elite matchup for all of Kansas City’s pass catchers. Travis Kelce leads the team in rout participation, target share, and air yards share with Rice off the field this season. He’s seen at least 9 targets in 3 of the last 4 games and has some positive touchdown regression coming his way. Justin Watson, Noah Gray, and Mecole Hardman can be sprinkled throughout your large-field tournament lineups.
Kareem Hunt has had at least 21 carries in each of the last 3 games. During that stretch, he has handled 82% of the team’s running back carries and has scored 4 touchdowns. He hasn’t been heavily involved in the passing game, but he does have 6 receptions in his 4 games with the team. Everyone is always concerned about Vita Vea when it comes to targeting running backs against the Buccaneers, but the team is 27th in PFF’s grades against the pass and 24th in fantasy points allowed to the position. With a favorable game script at home, this is another good spot for Hunt.
The Chiefs D/ST is firmly in play this evening. They have the 4th-best pass rush grade on PFF, they are expected to play with a lead at home, and they are facing a shorthanded offense. Kicker Harrison Butker is a strong value play for cash games and tournaments.
Lineup Construction Thoughts
This is setting up as a great slate because pOWN% is spread out. There are legitimately 10 different wideouts that could end up on the optimal lineup. The Buccaneers are shorthanded without Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, while the Chiefs have some question marks in terms of their target tree with DeAndre Hopkins making his second start with the team. Both quarterbacks are strong options, and I’m planning to be overweight on the Chiefs D/ST and Harrison Butker.
Bucs vs. Chiefs DFS Salaries & Projections
| Player | Team | Pos | Proj | DK Sal | CPT Sal | DK/$ | FD Sal | FD/$ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | KC | QB | 22.49 | $10,000 | $15,000 | 2.25 | $16,000 | 1.41 |
| Travis Kelce | KC | TE | 17.19 | $8,800 | $13,200 | 1.95 | $13,000 | 1.32 |
| Baker Mayfield | TB | QB | 16.58 | $9,600 | $14,400 | 1.73 | $15,500 | 1.07 |
| Kareem Hunt | KC | RB | 15.86 | $9,800 | $14,700 | 1.62 | $14,000 | 1.13 |
| Rachaad White | TB | RB | 13.12 | $7,400 | $11,100 | 1.77 | $12,500 | 1.05 |
| Xavier Worthy | KC | WR | 12.98 | $8,200 | $12,300 | 1.58 | $11,500 | 1.13 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | KC | WR | 12.01 | $7,000 | $10,500 | 1.72 | $9,500 | 1.26 |
| Cade Otton | TB | TE | 11.51 | $8,400 | $12,600 | 1.37 | $10,000 | 1.15 |
| Bucky Irving | TB | RB | 9.87 | $7,200 | $10,800 | 1.37 | $10,500 | 0.94 |
| Jalen McMillan | TB | WR | 9.57 | $6,200 | $9,300 | 1.54 | $9,500 | 1.01 |
| Harrison Butker | KC | K | 7.85 | $5,200 | $7,800 | 1.51 | $9,000 | 0.87 |
| Chiefs | KC | DST | 7.48 | $5,000 | $7,500 | 1.50 | $9,000 | 0.83 |
| Trey Palmer | TB | WR | 7.18 | $4,000 | $6,000 | 1.80 | $7,500 | 0.96 |
| Chase McLaughlin | TB | K | 6.56 | $4,800 | $7,200 | 1.37 | $8,500 | 0.77 |
| Justin Watson | KC | WR | 5.90 | $3,200 | $4,800 | 1.84 | $8,000 | 0.74 |
| Noah Gray | KC | TE | 5.59 | $2,800 | $4,200 | 2.00 | $6,500 | 0.86 |
| Sterling Shepard | TB | WR | 4.90 | $5,600 | $8,400 | 0.88 | $8,000 | 0.61 |
| Samaje Perine | KC | RB | 4.78 | $4,400 | $6,600 | 1.09 | $7,000 | 0.68 |
| Buccaneers | TB | DST | 4.58 | $3,600 | $5,400 | 1.27 | $8,500 | 0.54 |
| Ryan Miller | TB | WR | 3.01 | $1,000 | $1,500 | 3.01 | $5,500 | 0.55 |
| Carson Steele | KC | RB | 2.85 | $2,400 | $3,600 | 1.19 | $6,000 | 0.48 |
| Rakim Jarrett | TB | WR | 2.82 | $2,000 | $3,000 | 1.41 | $6,500 | 0.43 |
| Mecole Hardman | KC | WR | 2.67 | $1,600 | $2,400 | 1.67 | $7,500 | 0.36 |
| Sean Tucker | TB | RB | 2.15 | $2,600 | $3,900 | 0.83 | $7,000 | 0.31 |
Fantasy Sleepers
Chiefs D/ST: $5,000 DK / $9,000 FD
Defenses are rarely contrarian on Showdown slates, but it doesn’t look like the Chiefs will be super popular this evening. They are playing at home, they are sizable favorites, and they are facing an offense that is missing key players. The Chiefs have the 4th-best pass rush grade (PFF) in the NFL and should be able to force Tampa Bay to air it out if they can build a lead early. The more times an opponent drops back to pass, the more opportunities there are for sacks and turnovers.
Bucs vs. Chiefs Fantasy Pick’em
Season Fantasy Pick’em Record: 20-11
Travis Kelce anytime touchdown (1.92x) – Sleeper Fantasy
It’s safe to say last night’s game did not go as expected. The Colts scored one touchdown, and it was from a pick-six. There are several pick’em plays on my radar. I like Harrison Butker more than 1.5 field goals made, I like Cade Otton more than 53.5 receiving yards, and a lot of the more than numbers for Travis Kelce. For the official pick, I am going with Kelce anytime touchdown. Over the last 4 seasons, Kelce has had touchdown rates of 10.5%, 9.8%, 10.9% and 5.5%. This season, he only has 1 touchdown on 38 receptions. I see some positive touchdown regression coming his way. I’m not sure if Taylor Swift will be in attendance, but I think Andy Reid will draw up one of his very unnecessary plays for Kelce when they get down near the goal line.
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Image Credit: Getty Images
Stats credit: Fantasy Points Data and Pro Football Focus