The NFL DFS Grind Down: Sunday Night Football - Falcons vs. Commanders
In this article, we will take a look at the top DraftKings and FanDuel picks for the Falcons vs. Commanders, go over potential NFL DFS sleepers, and even take a look at some picks we can target on Fantasy Pick’em sites like Sleeper Fantasy ahead of this Sunday Night Football matchup. As always, you can visit our NFL lineup optimizer, LineupHQ, to help you with your lineup-building process.
NFL DFS Showdown DraftKings Picks and Sleepers — Falcons vs. Commanders
We have an important game on Sunday night, as the Commanders and Falcons are both battling to make the playoffs in the NFC. The Commanders can get into the playoffs with a win tonight or with a Buccaneers loss (I’m writing this as Tampa Bay is up 10-7 in the first quarter). The Falcons can win the NFC South with a win tonight and a Buccaneers loss, or by winning their last 2 games. Tonight’s game in Washington features a 3.5-point spread and a 46.5-point total.
Key Injuries
Dyami Brown – Out
Austin Ekeler – Out
Noah Brown – Out
Atlanta Falcons Preview
Despite being favored to win the division, the Falcons decided to bench Kirk Cousins for rookie Michael Penix. He looked good in his first full start, completing 18 of 27 passes for 202 yards against the Giants. His first real test will come this week, as he travels to Washington to take on the Commanders, who are 7th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks this season. Given the expected game script, Penix will likely be asked to do more in this game, but I prefer him at FLEX/UTIL for this Showdown slate.
Let’s take a look at the wideout usage for the Falcons over the last 4 games:
Drake London: 27% target share, 40% air yards share, 37% first-read rate
Darnell Mooney: 17% target share, 31% air yards share, 21% first-read rate
Ray-Ray McCloud: 18% target share, 12% air yards share, 17% first-read rate
Kyle Pitts: 12% target share, 16% air yards share, 12% first-read rate
In Penix’s first start, Drake London saw the most targets (8). He runs the majority of his routes from the slot, so he’ll avoid coverage from the solid outside cornerbacks of the Commanders. He’s had a limited ceiling this season, but he’s certainly the safest wideout target from the Falcons. Darnell Mooney still has solid underlying usage, while Ray-Ray McCloud is being used more near the line of scrimmage than he was earlier in the season. I am typically underweight on Kyle Pitts, which will be the case again tonight. In terms of the matchup, the Commanders are 12th against wide receivers and 13th against tight ends.
Bijan Robinson has one of the safest workloads of any running back in the NFL. He has at least 22 carries in each of the last 4 games and has a 12% target share on the season. He’s going to be heavily involved regardless of the game script. He also has an exploitable matchup, as the Commanders are 29th in PFF’s grades against the run and 25th in EPA against the run. He’s my favorite MVP/CPT target on the Falcons. Tyler Allgeier isn’t cheap enough for consideration in cash games and small-field tournaments.
This game has a high total, and the Falcons are underdogs on the road. I’ll take my chances with a fade of their defense. I don’t feel particularly good about kicker Riley Patterson in his first game with the team.
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Washington Commanders Preview
Jayden Daniels has been one of the most productive quarterbacks in fantasy football this season. He has averaged 22 fantasy points per game and has topped 25 fantasy points in 7 of 15 games. He has one of the highest rushing floors of any quarterback in the league and draws a nice matchup against the Falcons, who are 17th in EPA against the pass and 26th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks. He’s close to a must play on this slate and one of the top MVP/CPT targets.
Let’s take a look at the wideout usage for the Commanders over the last 4 games:
Terry McLaurin: 24% target share, 44% air yards share, 33% first-read rate
Olamide Zaccheaus: 15% target share, 8% air yards share, 18% first-read rate
Jamison Crowder: 10% target share, 17% air yards share, 10% first-read rate
Zach Ertz: 9% target share, 10% air yards share, 8% first-read rate
The Commanders will be without Dyami Brown and Noah Brown tonight, which opens the door for Olamide Zaccheaus and Jamison Crowder to round out 3-receiver sets. We’ll also see a little of Luke McCaffrey and K.J. Osborn. To me, this just means even more targets are headed for Terry McLaurin, who is one of my favorite MVP/CPT targets on the slate. He’s been a touchdown-scoring machine in the second half of the season and is facing a Falcons team that has struggled to defend the WR1. Zach Ertz is never an exciting click for DFS, but he continues to be a consistent source of production and could see a higher target share in this one.
Brian Robinson has had 17, 24, and 12 touches in his first 3 games back from injury. Given the expected game script, he has a path to 20+ touches against the Falcons, who are mediocre against the run. With Austin Ekeler out, Jeremy McNichols and Chris Rodriguez should both see a little work. While I don’t mind looking to Robinson, I have more interest in Washington’s passing attack.
The Commanders have a low pressure rate this season, but they are facing a rookie quarterback who is making only his 2nd career start. Their defense is firmly in play on this slate. Kicker Zane Gonzalez is also viable in a game where Washington should be able to move the ball up and down the field.
Lineup Construction Thoughts
My first thought is to be overweight on the Commanders. I could see most of Atlanta’s production flowing through Bijan Robinson and/or Drake London. With injuries to the receiving corps, there is a lot of value on the Commanders. For the most part, my MVP and CPT spots will be saved for Jayden Daniels and Terry McLaurin. In terms of the defenses and kickers, I only want exposure to the Washington side.
Falcons vs. Commanders DFS Salaries & Projections
| Player | Team | Pos | Proj | DK Sal | CPT Sal | DK/$ | FD Sal | FD/$ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayden Daniels | WAS | QB | 22.05 | $11,800 | $17,700 | 1.87 | $15,500 | 1.42 |
| Bijan Robinson | ATL | RB | 18.73 | $11,000 | $16,500 | 1.70 | $16,000 | 1.17 |
| Terry McLaurin | WAS | WR | 15.44 | $10,200 | $15,300 | 1.51 | $14,000 | 1.10 |
| Michael Penix | ATL | QB | 14.36 | $8,800 | $13,200 | 1.63 | $12,500 | 1.15 |
| Brian Robinson | WAS | RB | 14.01 | $9,000 | $13,500 | 1.56 | $12,000 | 1.17 |
| Drake London | ATL | WR | 13.35 | $9,400 | $14,100 | 1.42 | $13,000 | 1.03 |
| Zach Ertz | WAS | TE | 10.81 | $4,400 | $6,600 | 2.46 | $8,000 | 1.35 |
| Darnell Mooney | ATL | WR | 10.20 | $8,400 | $12,600 | 1.21 | $11,000 | 0.93 |
| Olamide Zaccheaus | WAS | WR | 8.49 | $6,400 | $9,600 | 1.33 | $7,500 | 1.13 |
| Zane Gonzalez | WAS | K | 8.15 | $5,200 | $7,800 | 1.57 | $9,000 | 0.91 |
| Ray-Ray McCloud | ATL | WR | 7.31 | $5,400 | $8,100 | 1.35 | $10,000 | 0.73 |
| Riley Patterson | ATL | K | 7.05 | $5,000 | $7,500 | 1.41 | $8,500 | 0.83 |
| Kyle Pitts | ATL | TE | 6.21 | $4,800 | $7,200 | 1.29 | $8,000 | 0.78 |
| Tyler Allgeier | ATL | RB | 6.16 | $4,000 | $6,000 | 1.54 | $9,500 | 0.65 |
| Falcons | ATL | DST | 5.91 | $3,600 | $5,400 | 1.64 | $8,500 | 0.70 |
| Jamison Crowder | WAS | WR | 5.80 | $3,000 | $4,500 | 1.93 | $7,500 | 0.77 |
| Commanders | WAS | DST | 5.79 | $4,200 | $6,300 | 1.38 | $9,000 | 0.64 |
| Jeremy McNichols | WAS | RB | 4.53 | $2,800 | $4,200 | 1.62 | $7,000 | 0.65 |
| Luke McCaffrey | WAS | WR | 2.67 | $1,600 | $2,400 | 1.67 | $6,500 | 0.41 |
| K.J. Osborn | WAS | WR | 2.26 | $1,200 | $1,800 | 1.88 | $5,000 | 0.45 |
| John Bates | WAS | TE | 1.80 | $800 | $1,200 | 2.25 | $6,000 | 0.30 |
| Charlie Woerner | ATL | TE | 1.65 | $200 | $300 | 8.25 | $5,500 | 0.30 |
Fantasy Sleepers
Commanders D/ST: $4,200 DK / $9,000 FD
The Commanders don’t have a single defensive touchdown or safety this season, yet they have still averaged a respectable 5.5 fantasy points per game. They are playing at home, they are sizable favorites, and they are facing a rookie quarterback who is making his first career start on the road.
Falcons vs. Commanders Fantasy Pick’em
Season Fantasy Pick’em Record: 27-25
Terry McLaurin more than 67.5 receiving yards (1.73x) – Sleeper Fantasy
This is an unreal cold streak. Let’s hope to snap out of it with Terry McLaurin to get more than 67.5 receiving yards. The Falcons have struggled to defend the WR1 all season, mostly due to the subpar play of A.J. Terrell. McLaurin was already the clear WR1 for Jayden Daniels, and now he gets to play in a game without Noah Brown and Dyami Brown.
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Image Credit: Getty Images
Stats credit: Fantasy Points Data and ProFootballFocus