The NFL DFS Grind Down: Super Bowl 59 - Chiefs vs. Eagles
In this article, we will take a look at the top DraftKings and FanDuel picks for the Chiefs vs. Eagles, go over potential NFL DFS sleepers, and even take a look at some picks we can target on Fantasy Pick’em sites like Sleeper Fantasy ahead of this year’s Super Bowl. As always, you can visit our NFL lineup optimizer, LineupHQ, to help you with your lineup-building process.
NFL DFS Showdown DraftKings Picks and Sleepers — Chiefs vs. Eagles
This is both an exciting and sad day, as this is the last NFL game we get to watch until September. The good news is that it’s the Super Bowl and that it should be a great one. The Chiefs only had a +59 point differential during the regular season and continue to run well in one-score games, but they deserve to be here. They are looking to win the Super Bowl for the 3rd straight season, which would be an incredible accomplishment.
The Eagles had a fairly easy path to the Super Bowl, but they were able to take down the Packers, Rams, and Commanders in the first three rounds of the playoffs. They are looking to avenge their Super Bowl loss to the Chiefs two years ago. I would argue the Eagles have the better offensive line, wide receivers, defensive line, and secondary, but the Chiefs have the better quarterback and head coach. This game features a 1.5-point spread and a 48-point total.
Key Injuries
Kenneth Gainwell – Questionable
Kansas City Chiefs Preview
It shouldn’t surprise anyone that the Chiefs are back in the Super Bowl. They’ve won the last 2 Super Bowls and have made it to the big dance in 4 of the last 6 seasons. A large part of that is thanks to Patrick Mahomes, who continues to be the best big-game quarterback in the NFL. He was quiet in the first playoff game against the Texans but scored 31 fantasy points against the Bills. The metric that stands out to me is his 18 rushing attempts in the 2 playoff games. He’s going to need to make plays with his feet, as the Eagles have one of the best defenses in the league. During the regular season, they were 3rd in both EPA against the pass and fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks.
Let’s look at Kansas City’s wideout usage in their 2 playoff games:
Xavier Worthy: 86% route participation, 26% target share, 15% air yards share, 31% first-read rate
Hollywood Brown: 69% route participation, 14% target share, 41% air yards share, 14% first-read rate
JuJu Smith-Schuster: 43% route participation, 8% target share, 13% air yards share, 3% first-read rate
DeAndre Hopkins: 35% route participation, 6% target share, 5% air yards share, 9% first-read rate
Travis Kelce: 77% route participation, 24% target share, 26% air yards share, 26% first-read rate
There are some surprises with these usage metrics. The first is that DeAndre Hopkins has only run a route on 35% of dropbacks. Perhaps they’ll trust the veteran more in the Super Bowl, but he seems like he’s 5th in line among Kansas City’s wideouts. Hollywood Brown has been quiet in the 2 playoff games, but his 69% route participation and 41% air yards share are awfully encouraging. He’s a sneaky tournament play on this Showdown slate. JuJu Smith-Schuster is only $2,000 on DraftKings and should run a decent amount of routes from the slot. He’s the piece that really opens up options for the rest of your lineup.
The two main wideouts for the Chiefs are Xavier Worthy and Travis Kelce. We saw Kansas City ramp up the usage for Rashee Rice in the second half of last season, and they did the same with Worthy this season. Worthy has seen at least 6 targets in 7 straight games and has multiple carries in 4 of the last 5 games. Travis Kelce tends to play his best in the playoffs; he has excellent splits with Taylor Swift in attendance, and we could see targets funnel over the middle of the field with how good the Eagles secondary is.
It’s been a pretty even split in the Chiefs backfield in their 2 playoff games. Kareem Hunt has played on 51% of the snaps and has turned 27 touches into 110 yards from scrimmage with 2 touchdowns. Isiah Pacheco has played on 46% of the snaps and has turned 12 touches into 42 yards from scrimmage. The Chiefs seem to trust Hunt more in short-yardage situations, so I’ll side with him over Pacheco. However, the Eagles are 2nd in EPA against the run and fantasy points allowed to running backs. In my builds, I will be prioritizing the passing game over the running game.
I’m not looking to the Chiefs D/ST in my main lineup, but they are certainly viable in tournaments given their ability to get after the quarterback. I expect both offenses to move the ball in this one, but we could see the defenses toughen up in the red zone. For that reason, I like both kickers here.
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Philadelphia Eagles Preview
Given how well the Lions played during the regular season, the Eagles were sort of the forgotten team in the NFC. They played well all season and had the 2nd-highest point differential in the NFL at +160. They got to the Super Bowl thanks to an elite rushing attack and an elite defense. Jalen Hurts has only thrown for around 500 yards combined in their first 3 playoff games, but he has added 112 rushing yards and 4 rushing touchdowns to his playoff resume. The Chiefs actually present a decent matchup, as they were 20th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks during the regular season.
Let’s look at Philadelphia’s wideout usage in their 2 playoff games:
A.J. Brown: 87% route participation, 26% target share, 58% air yards share, 34% first-read rate
DeVonta Smith: 89% route participation, 17% target share, 15% air yards share, 23% first-read rate
Jahan Dotson: 60% route participation, 3% target share, 5% air yards share, 0% first-read rate
Dallas Goedert: 79% route participation, 26% target share, 24% air yards share, 30% first-read rate
Unlike the Chiefs, the Eagles have one of the most concentrated passing attacks in the NFL. Almost all of the targets go to A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert. In their 3 playoff games, Smith has led the way in terms of routes run, while Brown has led the way in target share, air yards share, and first-read rate. The Chiefs have historically been tough on wide receivers, but they have been average against the position this season. My favorite wideout here is Goedert, who has some elite usage metrics in the playoffs and an excellent matchup (the Chiefs are 29th in fantasy points allowed to tight ends). Jahan Dotson is on the field a lot but rarely gets targeted.
The Eagles have the best running game in the NFL. We haven’t seen a running back run for over 100 yards in the Super Bowl for a handful of years, but something tells me Saquon Barkley will end that streak on Sunday. His rushing yard prop currently sits at 109.5. He’s racked up over 450 yards from scrimmage and 5 touchdowns in the first 3 playoff games. While the Chiefs allowed the fewest fantasy points to running backs during the regular season, it’s hard to ignore the 25+ potential touches for Barkley, who is one of the most explosive players in the league.
Much like the Chiefs, the Eagles D/ST is worth a look in large-field tournaments. As noted above, I have an interest in both of these kickers. The Eagles should be able to move the ball easily, but they could struggle to score touchdowns against this defense.
Lineup Construction Thoughts
This is a great slate to build multiple lineups. It’s the Super Bowl and the last Showdown slate of the season. You don’t want your DFS sweat to be over by halftime. However, I do have some stands that I want to take on this slate. For starters, I don’t love the running game for the Chiefs. It’s a brutal matchup, and Kareem Hunt has relied heavily on touchdowns for his fantasy production ever since Isiah Pacheco returned to the lineup. I also plan to be underweight on the Eagles wide receivers, overweight on the two TE1s in this game, and overweight on the kickers.
Chiefs vs. Eagles DFS Salaries & Projections
| Player | Team | Pos | Proj | DK Sal | CPT Sal | DK/$ | FD Sal | FD/$ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jalen Hurts | PHI | QB | 23.77 | $10,400 | $15,600 | 2.29 | $13,500 | 1.76 |
| Patrick Mahomes | KC | QB | 21.80 | $10,000 | $15,000 | 2.18 | $14,000 | 1.56 |
| Saquon Barkley | PHI | RB | 19.63 | $12,000 | $18,000 | 1.64 | $16,500 | 1.19 |
| A.J. Brown | PHI | WR | 19.63 | $9,600 | $14,400 | 2.04 | $12,500 | 1.57 |
| Xavier Worthy | KC | WR | 16.68 | $8,000 | $12,000 | 2.09 | $11,500 | 1.45 |
| Travis Kelce | KC | TE | 16.19 | $9,000 | $13,500 | 1.80 | $12,000 | 1.35 |
| DeVonta Smith | PHI | WR | 13.90 | $7,400 | $11,100 | 1.88 | $11,000 | 1.26 |
| Dallas Goedert | PHI | TE | 12.37 | $5,800 | $8,700 | 2.13 | $10,000 | 1.24 |
| Kareem Hunt | KC | RB | 10.79 | $6,400 | $9,600 | 1.69 | $10,500 | 1.03 |
| Marquise Brown | KC | WR | 10.09 | $5,400 | $8,100 | 1.87 | $9,500 | 1.06 |
| Harrison Butker | KC | K | 7.69 | $5,000 | $7,500 | 1.54 | $9,000 | 0.85 |
| Jake Elliott | PHI | K | 7.36 | $4,800 | $7,200 | 1.53 | $9,000 | 0.82 |
| Eagles | PHI | DST | 6.47 | $4,200 | $6,300 | 1.54 | $8,000 | 0.81 |
| Chiefs | KC | DST | 5.94 | $4,000 | $6,000 | 1.49 | $8,000 | 0.74 |
| Isiah Pacheco | KC | RB | 5.72 | $5,200 | $7,800 | 1.10 | $8,500 | 0.67 |
| Noah Gray | KC | TE | 5.05 | $2,800 | $4,200 | 1.80 | $7,500 | 0.67 |
| DeAndre Hopkins | KC | WR | 5.03 | $4,400 | $6,600 | 1.14 | $8,500 | 0.59 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | KC | WR | 4.81 | $2,000 | $3,000 | 2.41 | $7,000 | 0.69 |
| Kenneth Gainwell | PHI | RB | 3.09 | $3,400 | $5,100 | 0.91 | $7,500 | 0.41 |
| Samaje Perine | KC | RB | 2.66 | $1,200 | $1,800 | 2.22 | $6,500 | 0.41 |
| Jahan Dotson | PHI | WR | 2.45 | $1,600 | $2,400 | 1.53 | $7,000 | 0.35 |
Fantasy Sleepers
Hollywood Brown: $5,400 DK / $8,100 FD
After scoring 6 fantasy points combined in the first 2 playoff games, I can’t imagine too many will be rushing to play Hollywood Brown in the Super Bowl. The tough matchup against the Eagles (3rd in EPA against the pass, 7th in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers) will only help lower the ownership. I’m willing to look his way in tournaments, as the underlying usage metrics in the 2 playoff games have been solid — 69% route participation, 14% target share, 41% air yards share, and a 14% first-read rate.
Chiefs vs. Eagles Fantasy Pick’em
Dallas Goedert more than 4.5 receptions (1.60x) – Sleeper Fantasy
I’m hitching my Super Bowl wagon to Dallas Goedert. He’s had elite usage metrics in the 3 playoff games (79% route participation, 26% target share, 24% air yards share, 30% first-read rate) and easily has the best matchup of any wideout on the slate. During the regular season, the Chiefs gave up the 2nd-most receptions to tight ends.
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Image Credit: Getty Images
Stats credit: Fantasy Points Data and ProFootballFocus