NFL DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Values Wild Card Round
We’re on to the Wild Card Round with two games on Saturday, three games on Sunday, and one game on Monday, so I will be looking at all six games and using salaries from FD and DK’s SAT-MON slates. Multi-day slates are interesting as we can adjust our lineups based on what happens Saturday and Sunday and swap to lower-owned players to try to make up ground if a couple players underperform early on. Knowing this I like making sure I have at least a few guys playing Sunday/Monday so I am able to make changes if I want to if any Saturday guys I use bust, and on DK always make sure you put your latest playing player in that FLEX spot.
This is a weekly NFL article that can hopefully show you some lineup building tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
This Week’s FanDuel & DraftKings NFL DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS NFL, such as stacking a WR or TE with your QB, correlating a RB or WR on the opposing team of your stack, and targeting volume guys with high floors who get goal line carries and/or end zone targets that can maximize their ceilings with TDs. I will be focusing on the “main slate” for the week, but you can still find plenty of analysis for the Thursday and Monday NFL games on RG, and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies / tools you’d like to see here!
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for NFL, including our industry-leading NFL DFS projections and NFL lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
NFL DFS Injury Roundup
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the week, it’s important to get a feel for any injuries that we’ll need to monitor as the week goes on and how these injuries will affect our builds if a questionable player ends up out. For cash games I’m looking for safety, volume, and upside so I tend to avoid players who are dealing with an injury, as they are more likely to aggravate it or possibly have their snaps limited compared to someone coming into the week fully healthy with a full week of practice under their belts.
Looking at The Situation Room we can see who is out, likely out, or questionable to play in the Wild Card Round, so make sure check this page as we get closer to kickoff for each game to see status changes for any Q players.
- Important players who are out this round include Lamar Jackson, Tua Tagovailoa, Raheem Mostert, Isaiah McKenzie, Tylan Wallace, Kyle Rudolph, and Devin Duvernay.
NFL Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Stacks
Let’s take a look at NFL Starting Lineups to see any major lineup news, such as guys missing or interesting depth chart changes (main slate for this article) as well as which teams or games I’m looking to stack. This page is my favorite tool for NFL DFS as we get betting lines, DFS salaries, projected ownership, and updated depth charts that we can refer to as we build our lineups or see what is affected by any news throughout the week, so make sure to take advantage of this page to keep you up to date on a variety of beneficial DFS info.
- SEA/SF: The 49ers are at full strength after getting Mitchell and Samuel back last week, while the Seahawks will go with Walker/Dallas at RB as Homer is on IR. Fant and Parkinson are the top TEs with Dissly on IR and we’ll see if Cade Johnson and Dareke Young are ahead of Laquon Treadwell as the WR3 after both were last week.
- LAC/JAC: Mike Williams has been ruled out with his back injury after injuring it in a meaningless game last week, so Allen, Palmer, and Carter will be the top WRs for Herbert, while the Jaguars remain one of the healthiest teams in the NFL with no starters in danger of missing this game.
- MIA/BUF: The Dolphins will start Skylar Thompson this game as Tua has been ruled out and Bridgewater is still working his way back from a dislocated finger. Raheem Mostert is out so look for Jeff Wilson to get a big workload with Ahmed backing him up. The Bills are full go health-wise outside of Isaiah McKenzie who is in danger of missing this game with a hamstring injury which would give more snaps to Shakir and Beasley.
- NYG/MIN: Both teams should be at full strength with their usual skill players available, and we could see an increased role for Irv Smith.
- BAL/CIN: Lamar Jackson is out so Tyler Huntley will start assuming he can play through his shoulder & wrist injuries that kept him out last week. JK Dobbins and Mark Andrews will be full go after getting an extra week of rest under their belts week 18. The Bengals are fully healthy.
- DAL/TBB: Dallas is fully healthy, while the Bucs will be monitoring the statuses of Russell Gage, Julio Jones, and Kyle Rudolph all dealing with injuries.
NFL DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for injuries, projected lineups, and strong stacks to consider, let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel:
- I’m going to try fitting in Josh Allen ($9,200) in my main build as he has by far the highest ceiling of the slate and one of the highest floors as well, but if you’re overall favorite lineup needs a cheaper QB then I don’t mind going with Daniel Jones ($7,400), Joe Burrow ($8,000), or Dak Prescott ($7,300) as my next three favorite options.
- At RB, Travis Etienne ($7,100) gets a much easier matchup than last week and should have many more opportunities at big plays in the run and pass game and he is my favorite p/$ RB of the slate. Saquon Barkley ($8,800) and Dalvin Cook ($7,800) make for a pretty affordable game stack while McCaffrey and Ekeler are expensive but both have slate-breaking upside. If Mostert is out then Jeff Wilson ($6,000) would be my favorite value RB while Kenneth Walker ($6,600) draws one of the toughest matchups but should still be heavily involved and could be a steal if he finds the endzone.
- At WR I will start by trying to stack Stefon Diggs ($8,600) with Allen for maximum upside, but I don’t mind going with Gabe Davis ($6,200) for a more contrarian Bills stack that will allow you to spend up elsewhere. Keenan Allen ($8,400) would be a cash game lock if Mike Williams is out or limited, and I really like the prices of Deebo Samuel ($6,900) and Brandon Aiyuk ($6,700) for cheap exposure to SF.
- At TE, Evan Engram ($5,700) is my favorite play for the price while Dawson Knox ($5,600) is also a top value play especially if you want to stack more receivers with Allen.
- For defense I like going with either BUF ($5,000), SF ($4,700), DAL ($4,300), or CIN ($4,500).
Looking at DraftKings:
- Daniel Jones ($5,600) is looking way underpriced given his rushing ability so he would be my top choice at QB if you’re optimal lineup can’t fit in Josh Allen ($7,900).
- Travis Etienne ($6,300) remains my favorite play for the price while Jeff Wilson ($5,400), JK Dobbins ($5,700) and Kenneth Walker ($6,100) are other cheap options to consider. Dalvin Cook ($7,000) and Joe Mixon ($6,800) also both seem a bit underpriced and come with a nice floor/ceiling combo.
- At WR, Stefon Diggs ($7,600) is still my favorite overall play and Gabe Davis ($4,800) is crazy cheap so it should be easy to stack both with Allen. The Giants have some great value WRs in Richie James ($3,900), Isaiah Hodgins ($4,100), and Darius Slayton ($4,200) while Zay Jones ($4,300) and Adam Thielen ($4,400) are other excellent targets for cheap.
- Evan Engram ($4,400) and Dawson Knox ($4,000) remain my top p/$ TEs but if you need more savings I don’t mind Hayden Hurst ($3,100), Daniel Bellinger ($3,000), or Cade Otton ($2,800).
- For defense the Bills ($3,300) are too cheap and are my top option with the 49ers ($3,600) a close second.
Keep checking LineupHQ for any projections changes throughout the week, as the best p/$ plays could change in an instant if someone gets ruled out or some other type of news makes someone likely to see more or less volume.
NFL DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough lineup decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to follow the RotoGrinders NFL twitter feed and our NFL DFS Alerts page.
Good luck this week!
Image Credit: Imagn