NFL DFS Week 11 Preview: Snap Counts, Air Yards, and Usage Facts
In this space, we’re gonna look at NFL snap counts and usage facts, including wide receiver air yards, to consider as you make NFL DFS picks and Week 11 projections.
Check out RotoGrinders’ NFL DFS Usage tool to view NFL air yards and snap counts for every player ahead NFL Week 11 — a free app for DFS players or sports bettors specializing in NFL props.
NFL SNAP COUNTS, AIR YARDS, AND USAGE FACTS – NFL DFS TIPS WEEK 11
Quarterback
Justin Fields at Falcons
Justin Fields has run the ball at least seven times in every game — at least eight times in every game but Week 4. He’s been over 23 DK points in each of his last four games after not hitting 19 in his first six games. His rushing attempts (with DK point total in parentheses) over his last five:
Week 6 – 12 (19.4)
Week 7 – 14 (24.4)
Week 8 – 8 (26.0)
Week 9 – 15 (45.7)
Week 10 – 13 (43.4)
There isn’t a ‘when he runs x amount of times, he breaks y amount of fantasy points’, but Fields has done all of this damage without breaking 200 passing yards in any of these five games, so we need the rushing volume. Lucky for us, we don’t need to dive deep into opposing defenses to see which ones will have the coverage and penetration to make him run.
Dude’s just runnin’ a billion times a game and chuckin’ for 9.33 air yards per target.
The Falcons are 30th in defense DVOA. This game has a tight spread with a total over 50 points. The Bears’ game plan shouldn’t be thwarted.
Kenny Pickett vs. Bengals
QBs with 40-plus dropbacks in each of their last three games:
Justin Herbert – 57, 44, 40
Kirk Cousins – 42, 42, 56
Kenny Pickett – 48, 49, 40
That’s it. That’s the list.
The Steelers are bad. I have no idea what it is they’re trying to do, but Pickett is cheap and he’s throwing a ton. Even if we’re unwilling to punt with Pickett, we should feel there’s some safety in the volume of Diontae Johnson and the deep balls to George Pickens. Johnson has an 11.04 aDOT over their last three and Pickens is way up to 12.31. We’re not talkin’ about dinkin’ and dunkin’.
Lamar Jackson vs. Panthers
Of QBs who’ve started at least six games, Lamar Jackson is sixth in the NFL with 8.57 air yards per target. He isn’t dropping back much, but five of his 16 TDs have been plays of 20-plus yards. The deep ball’s come down to earth without Rashod Bateman, but Devin Duvernay has ten of those targets. We don’t have to stack Jackson with the expensive Mark Andrews. We can build around him without being chalky.
And CAR is 25th in defense DVOA, so the Ravens should have their way. Vegas agrees, making BAL -12.5 favorites.
Running Back
Saquon Barkley vs Lions
NYG is only -3, hosting DET. This could be a shootout. Either way, there’s only one place for the Giants to go: Saquon Barkley.
And that’s where they’ve gone all season. Barkley doesn’t just lead the league with 26.1 opportunities per game; he’s the only one with more than 25. He’s getting Derick Henry volume and is almost guaranteed three to five targets. Since Week 6, Barkley is the only RB who has broken 25 opportunities in every game.
DET isn’t as terrible recently as they were to start the season, but they’re still bad.
Melvin Gordon and Latavius Murray vs. Raiders
The Raiders are dead-last in defensive DVOA, DEN’s terrible offense is slated to score some points, and DEN might even have a lead. There might be light chirping about how Melvin Gordon is playable.
That’s fine.
We should be in the know that this is a full-blown timeshare with Latavius Murray getting 16, 11, 16, and 12 carries in each of their last four games and Gordon getting 15, 13, and 13 in their last three.
Jonathan Taylor vs. Eagles
Jonathan Taylor played 94 (!!!) percent of the IND snaps in Jeff Saturday’s head coaching debut. I don’t care that IND is a 6.5-point dog to a Super Bowl contender. Taylor’s gonna get his. It’s clearly the coach’s intention, and so much opportunity simply comes from coach’s intent.
The matchup sucks, sure, but it’s negated by the discount in salary and ownership that we’re getting on Taylor for tournaments.
Wide Receiver
Justin Jefferson vs. Cowboys
DAL is tied for the 2nd-best defensive DVOA in the NFL, so the ownership of Justin Jefferson has a capped ceiling. But his early projections are far greater than everyone else on the whole damn slate.
This is all great because he leads in the NFL with 11.2 targets per game, and MIN showed their hand as to how they’re gonna handle great defense last week against BUF: They threw it to Jefferson 16 times.
Mix this volume with a rising aDOT, and the ceiling is incredible. Jefferson’s aDOTs the last three games: 10.63, 13.62 (13 targets), and 13.19 (aforementioned 16 targets).
Tee Higgins at Steelers
Tee Higgins isn’t a target monster without Ja’Marr Chase. He only has 14 total targets in the two games since Chase’s injury. Actually, no one’s popping out in CIN’s passing game. Joe Burrow has spread the ball around and, yeah, they’ve been running a ton with Joe Mixon.
Tight End
T.J. Hockenson vs. Cowboys
We shouldn’t feel great about playing anyone against DAL, but Hockenson has hit the floor running with his new club. In two games, he’s played 91% and 93% of the snaps and has seen 9 and 10 targets.
Let’s stop to recognize that this is extremely rare for a guy to join a team via trade and get this much usage.
Junk matchup, but the volume might be on the rise as Hockenson makes himself familiar with everything.
Image Credit: Imagn