NFL FanDuel Lineup Walkthrough - Week 10
It was a strange week in the NFL. There are always one or two weeks where all the obvious plays end up being big letdowns and all the contrarian plays end up having big games. Judging by the DFS Twitter world, most of the experts across the industry had a bad week in cash games. Tournaments are always a different story, as you want to target those players that are going to be low owned. Fading a 50% owned player that ends up having a letdown can be a huge advantage.
As for myself, it was a disappointing week. With a new baby on board, my Saturdays have changed dramatically. Rather than spending hours and hours making tournament lineups, I’m going to the store for diapers, trying to soothe a crying baby, and taking family pictures. So many family pictures. Now, I wouldn’t change any of it for the world and am in no way making excuses, but I mention it to point out that I didn’t have any high-scoring GPP lineups to save my cash games this week.
The good news is, there is always next week!
Kirk Cousins: $6,500
Cousins was my saving grace this week. Earlier in the week, I was flirting with the idea of using Cousins in cash games. He was so significantly cheaper than the other quarterback options on my radar and he was facing the Saints, who are easily the worst pass defense in the NFL. I don’t mind streaming quarterbacks against bad defenses, especially when they have such a high team total. I used Cousins in my Thursday contests and saw that he was around 20% owned in double-ups. That made me feel a little more comfortable about using him in 100% of my cash games. If I cash at all this week, it will be thanks to this man.
James Starks: $6,000
Starks was a fairly popular play in the Thursday contests on FanDuel and that was before Eddie Lacy was ruled out. Starks was named the starter earlier in the week and once Lacy was out, he was basically a lock to see 20+ touches in a game where the Packers were expected to win easily. Opportunity, matchup, and game script were all in his favor heading into Sunday’s game against the Lions. At a price of only $6,000, it was tough to pass up. If that game went anywhere near as planned, Starks would have had a much better fantasy outing.
DeAngelo Williams: $7,600
Williams was the ultimate letdown play this week. He was coming off of a monster game and he was facing one of the worst run defenses in the NFL. Touchdowns are extremely volatile for players, but it was a little tilting to watch the Steelers pass the ball every single time they got down near the goal line. Ben Roethlisberger made a surprise appearance after Landry Jones went down with an injury and even though I was expecting that to help Williams, it ended up hurting his fantasy outing. The Steelers torched the Browns through the air and didn’t really turn to the run game until the last five minutes of the game.
Allen Robinson: $7,500
Dollar for dollar, Robinson was my favorite wide receiver in Week 10. He had four straight games where he had reached or exceeded value and he was facing a very beatable secondary of the Ravens. Baltimore has an above-average run defense and with the Jaguars being sizable underdogs on the road, game script was expected to be in Robinson’s favor. Blake Bortles had his worst game in a while, but he did manage to lead his (my) team to victory thanks to a face mask penalty on the last play of the game. Robinson didn’t have a big day, but he scored a touchdown to save his fantasy outing.
Jarvis Landry: $7,000
Landry is always a safe cash game play, especially in situations where the Dolphins are underdogs. He sees a lot of high quality targets and he is often involved in the running game as well. He also returns punts, which can give you a nice bonus when he returns one for a touchdown. Landry was not on my high list of targets, but he was my pivot from Stefon Diggs / Michael Crabtree once I saw how windy the game in Oakland was expected to be. Much like Robinson, Landry’s fantasy outing was saved by a late touchdown against the Eagles.
Demaryius Thomas: $7,900
I hate when I talk myself into targeting a player because of a narrative. Thomas’s mother got out of prison and saw her son play football for the very first time in her life. And to make matters better, Thomas has some serious positive touchdown regression coming his way shortly. Everything lined up for a big day from DT, but the Chiefs’ defense had other plans. They basically sat on every route, daring Peyton Manning to throw the ball more than 10-15 yards downfield. A lot of people love to bash Manning and while it is unfair to his teammates, I still feel bad for the guy. Going from one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL to one of the worst in such a short period of time has to be tough mentally.
Rob Gronkowski: $8,000
The Patriots were in a nice spot this week against the Giants. They had the revenge narrative going and they also had a great matchup against a Giants’ defense that is routinely torched by opposing quarterbacks. Gronkowski was unable to get going early, but he did have a 76-yard touchdown reception that saved his day. I didn’t feel comfortable having 100% exposure to Jordan Reed and since I already had him in Thursday lineup and in my DraftKings lineup, I thought this could be a good place to spend up. There was enough value to fit Gronk without any issue.
Mike Nugent: $4,600
The Bengals are big favorites and they have a high team total. I’m hoping Andy Dalton and crew to move the ball at will until they get into the redzone. Nothing like cheering for your kicker to save your lineup.
Green Bay Packers D/ST: $4,900
I was on all the wrong defenses this week. I had the St. Louis Rams in my Thursday lineup, I had the Raiders in my DraftKings lineup, and I had the Packers in my Sunday FanDuel lineup. As mentioned above, the Packers were large favorites at home. They have a great pass rush and they have been very tough on Matthew Stafford throughout the years. It obviously didn’t play out as expected, as they didn’t sack Stafford once.
Feel free to post the horror stories (or successes) from your lineups in the comment selection below.