NFL FanDuel Lineup Walkthrough - Week 5
After a week where it felt like the world was coming down all around us, it was nice to get back into the swing of things in Week 5. It was a very strange week for me in that my main cash game lineups on FanDuel and DraftKings finished at complete opposite sides of the spectrum. Rather than breaking down the better lineup of the two, I will swallow my pride and focus on my pitiful FanDuel lineup.
There are plenty of instances in life where we learn more from our failures than we do from our successes. That certainly applies to DFS, as we can never truly get better unless we continuously look to improve our decision making each week. This was a week where I may not have made the most “optimal” choices, but it was also a case where variance reared its ugly head. As I always say, we should trust the process rather than the result, at least in the short term. The point of this article is not to show how well my lineup performed in a certain week, it is to analyze the thought process behind each pick.
This will likely end up being my worst week on FanDuel this season, but that’s going to happen to everyone. There are going to be ups and downs throughout the season and the more critical we can be of our decision making, the quicker we can improve. With this week’s result, I will need to give plenty of justification for each pick, so let’s get right into it.
In past seasons, I preferred to pay up at the quarterback position. The thought process was solid, as quarterbacks have a larger sample size or opportunity each week — passing attempts compared to touches or targets — than the other positions. Thanks to this, quarterbacks are more consistent week-to-week and I didn’t mind paying up for consistency. The flaw in that logic is that mid-tier quarterbacks are a lot more reliable than mid-tier wide receivers. Additionally, high-end running backs and wide receivers are more consistent than the mid to low-tier players at the same positions. What I’m getting at is that you can pay up for consistency at other positions, while getting consistent production from your quarterback while still saving money.
With saving at quarterback in mind, I narrowed down my Week 5 targets to Philip Rivers and Sam Bradford. Both were priced the same on FanDuel ($7,500), yet Bradford was $200 cheaper on DraftKings. I decided to take advantage of the pricing and target Rivers on FanDuel and Bradford on DraftKings. The thought process behind this pick was simple. The Steelers have one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL, the Chargers have struggled to get their run game going, and the Chargers were projected to score just over 24 points.
If you read my FanDuel Incentives article this week, then you know that I had Le’Veon Bell and Jamaal Charles as options 1A and 1B at running back this week. I had doubt about the top tier receivers and decided to spend up at running back. With no Ben Roethlisberger in Week 5, I expected (and still expect) Bell to see north of 25 touches in a favorable matchup against the Chargers. Bell is one of the few true workhorse backs left in the NFL and he is a big weapon as both a running back and a pass catcher.
There are going to be injuries each and every week of the NFL. That’s just the nature of football. It’s better for you to understand that now, rather than crying about it when it will eventually happen to one of your players. Injuries are going to both hurt and benefit your lineups throughout the season. Charles was expected to have a big outing against the Bears, who by most accounts, had one of the worst run defenses in the NFL. The Chiefs were also large favorites at home in a game that shaped up to be a 25+ touch outing for Charles. It was a gruesome injury; we just have to hope that he can heal and come back next season.
This is one of my picks that I didn’t feel 100% confident about heading into the week. With so much being spent at running back, I was forced to save on my receivers. Hindsight is obviously 20/20, but the fact that Jamison Crowder had come on strong in recent weeks should have been more of a red flag. The expected game script was a major reason why I took Garcon, as I expected the Redskins to be playing from behind for most of the game. However, when the Redskins got ahead, they quickly changed their game plan to try to protect their lead. I was about to swap him for Marquess Wilson, but I already had Wilson on DraftKings and didn’t want 100% exposure to him.
As mentioned above, Sam Bradford was one of my two quarterback targets for the week, so obviously I was high on the Eagles’ passing attack. The Saints were ranked as one of the worst pass defenses in the entire NFL and they had given up some big outings to slot receivers through the first four weeks of play. I’m still a little surprised at how little Jordan Matthews was involved in the game plan, as he only finished with five catches on seven targets for 44 yards.
This was a perfect buy-low opportunity. Allen Robinson had been held in check in some tough matchups (Josh Norman and Vontae Davis) and his price had come down across the industry. When there is not an injury or a change in role associated with that decrease in production, we can expect players to bounce back. Robinson had a terrific matchup against the Buccaneers and after reading the WR/CB matchups article on ProFootballFocus, it was clear that he had a ton of upside against Tampa Bay. My hope is that he will continue to fly under the radar in DFS.
The Bears were one of the largest underdogs in the NFL this week and with Alshon Jeffery and Eddie Royal ruled out, I expected Bennett to be a target monster against the Chiefs. There were plenty of chances for the Cutler/Bennett hookup, but the two just never seemed to be on the same page. It was one of those strange weeks where almost every tight end disappointed.
I like to target kickers that are on teams that are favored (game script) and that are on high-scoring offenses. The Giants may not exactly be a high-scoring offense, but they had a high team total of 24.75 points.
Ravens D/ST
This was a make or break week for the Ravens. They were 1-3 with a big division game at home. They were large favorites against a Browns’ offense that had been very hit or miss this season. I was not expecting Josh McCown to throw for 1,500 yards and 12 touchdowns. I’ve learned my lesson. This is not your older brother’s Ravens team.