NFL Futures: Elliott's Holdout Creates Value in Rushing Markets
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NFL Week 1 is right around the corner, which means the clock is ticking for your chance to place futures and season-long prop bets.
(Also read: NFL Week 1 Lines, Totals and Picks)
With Jerry Jones’ comments on Wednesday, it appears the Cowboys are bracing for an extended holdout by Ezekiel Elliott. In light of the drama in Dallas, among other storylines across the NFL, two players futures markets at online sports betting sites stick out: who will have the most rushings yards and who will have the most rushing touchdown in the 2019 NFL season.
Some sportsbooks have adjusted for Elliott’s absence, while others have yet to react, allowing for an NFL betting opportunity.
In addition to Elliott, Melvin Gordon holdout could extend into the NFL regular season and the Rams are likely to lessen Todd Gurley workload to preserve his health for the postseason.
Gurley has led the NFL in touchdowns for two consecutive seasons, but the Rams management of Gurley could prevent a three-peat.
When it comes to pure mileage, Elliott has taken down the rushing title in two of his last three seasons. There’s a significant opening for someone new lead the NFL in rushing touchdowns and to win the rushing title if Elliott and the Cowboys can’t come to terms before NFL Week 1.
First, let’s take a look at how markets have reacted to the Elliot news across the industry, then let’s breakdown a few running backs worth considering to seize this opportunity.
NFL Futures — Sportsbooks React (kind of) to Elliott’s Holdout
FanDuel Sportsbook opened Elliott as a +300 favorite to win the NFL rushing title and a +800 co-favorite to lead the NFL in rushing touchdowns back in July. Elliot was in a similar spot across most online sports betting sites.
Since then, FanDuel has moved Elliot +550 behind Saquon Barkley +340 to lead the league in rushing yards. In the touchdowns market, Elliot +950 is behind guys like Aaron Jones, Alvin Kamara and Saquon Barkley.
Elliot remains the favorite to win the rushing title at both DraftKings and William Hill, and behind only Barkley at PointsBet.
Also at PointsBet, Elliott +750 is the co-favorite to have the most rushing touchdowns, but DraftKings has Elliot +1400.
Barkley bettors are likely to benefit most from these storylines. Despite the Giants offensive concerns surrounding the running back position, I don’t mind backing Barkley +1100 to lead the league in touchdowns(use our DraftKings Sportsbook promo code to get these odds), but I prefer to look for longer odds than +450 to lead the league in rushing yards.
Here’s running backs with longer odds who could lead the league in both rushing categories.
NFL Futures — NFL Rushing Touchdowns and Rushin Yards Leader Odds
Dalvin Cook
Most Rushing Yards +2000 (use our William Hill promo code to get these odds)
Most Rushing Touchdowns +3000 (use our DraftKings Sportsbook promo code to get these odds)
Dalvin Cook averaged 4.6 yards per carry last season, almost identical to Elliott’s 4.7, but Cook only played in 11 games. Injuries are a threat to Cook’s production, but he’s expected to become a workhorse in Minnesota’s new offensive system led by Gary Kubiak. Minnesota will become more balanced, and they could even become a run-heavy team. As long as Cook stays healthy, there’s a chance to cash out these tickets.
Nick Chubb
Most Rushing Yards +1800 (use our DraftKings Sportsbook promo code to get these odds)
Most Rushing Touchdowns +1500 (use our FanDuel Sportsbook promo code to get these odds).
These would be my favorite player futures bets across the board if it weren’t for Kareem Hunt impending arrival after his 8-week suspension. There’s still reason to think Chubb can get the job done. For one, Hunt can’t be with the team during his suspension, so he might not be ready to take on too much of Chubb’s workload. Secondly, what Hunt does take of Chubb’s will predominantly be in the passing game.
Chubb, who averaged 5.2 yards per carry as a rookie, will have plenty of opportunities on the ground in and near the goal line without Hunt. This Cleveland offense, in Baker Mayfield second year under center, will find their way near the goal line quite a bit this season. And if they’re playing with a big lead, expect Chubb to add yards as their workhorse throughout the game.
Aaron Jones
Most Rushing Yards +4000 (use our PointsBet promo code to get these odds)
Most Rushing Touchdowns +2000 (PointsBet)
Oddly enough, Jones is the favorite to lead the NFL in rushing Touchdowns at FanDuel. At just a little more than even money, either FanDuel has taken a ton of action on Jones already (and I mean A TON), or it’s just a mispriced line. I’m going with the latter. Regardless, there is value on Jones at PointsBet.
I know what you’re thinking. It’s tough to imagine a Packers running back leading the league in rushing with Aaron Rodgers at their disposal. You’re right. Only two Green Bay running backs have reached 1000 yards since Aaron Rodgers took over for Brett Favre. The first was Ryan Grant in 2009 and then Eddie Lacy in 2013. But the Packers are likely to take a new offensive approach with new head coach Matt LaFleur. LaFleur was previously the quarterbacks coach in Atlanta (2015-16) before taking offensive coordinating jobs with the Los Angeles Rams (‘17) and Tennessee Titans (‘18). During those years, LaFleur saw Devonta Freeman lead the league in rushing touchdowns (‘15) and Gurley led both categories in 2017. Most recently, LaFleur oversaw Derrick Henry first 1000-yard rushing season, where Henry’s 12 touchdowns tied for third in the league behind only Gurley and Kamara.
I prefer to bet on rushing touchdowns with Jones, but at 2.4% implied odds I don’t mind a longshot bet at the rushing title.
Sony Michel
Most Rushing Yards +3300 (use our William Hill promo code to get these odds)
Most Rushing Touchdowns +1400 (use our PointsBet promo code to get these odds)
It’s typically tough to predict who will be New England’s featured back one game to the next. That’s not the case this year, so long as Sony Michel stays healthy. Michel nearly reached 1000 yards in 2018 despite missing three games. James White will continue to get most of the receptions in the backfield, but the Patriots drafted Michel in the first round for a reason. Michel’s role will expand, and the Patriots could lean towards rushing the ball more, allowing the second-year running back to eclipse the 1000-yard mark and get double digit touchdowns.
Joe Mixon
Most Rushing Yards +1500 (use our FanDuel Sportsbook promo code to get these odds)
Most Rushing Touchdown +2600 (FanDuel)
I don’t know how much I want to depend on Cincinnati’s offense getting Mixon red zone opportunities, but Mixon will be the focal piece of this offense. He’ll be used accordingly, especially while the Bengals begin the season with AJ Green sidelined from another injury.