NFL Grind Down: Week 11, Thursday Edition
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NFL Grind Down, an all-encompassing preview of the week ahead in the NFL from a daily fantasy sports perspective. We’ll provide all the statistics, insights and analysis you need to set your lineups for this week’s contests.
Every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts. Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. We also provide a look at how each team fares against opposing offenses from a fantasy points allowed perspective and include some statistics for key players on each team as well.
Each contest is then analyzed team-by-team, with a focus on finding matchups to exploit and trends to follow. These breakdowns now feature “Matchup Rating,” which factors in projected point totals, pace, and offense versus defense data to compile an all-around rating that helps determine how favorable of a fantasy matchup each team has this week.
Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code to get three months of Grinders Incentives for free ($75 value).
Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars
| Tennessee Titans | Jacksonville Jaguars | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
| Thursday – 8:25 p.m. | EverBank Field | |||||||||
| Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | Vegas Odds | Sprd | Total | Proj.Pts | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.5 | 43 | 20.25 | -2.5 | 43 | 22.75 | |||||
| Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | Tm Stats | PPG | Scoring | Pass | Rush | |
| Offense | 18.8 | 27 | 20 | 22 | Offense | 21.3 | 23 | 13 | 23 | |
| Opp. Defense | 28.3 | 30 | 25 | 5 | Opp. Defense | 23.8 | 19 | 5 | 20 | |
| Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | Opp. Def vs. Pos | QB | RB | WR | TE | |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 28 | 25 | 19 | 18 | Tennessee Titans | 27 | 3 | 13 | 26 | |
| Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | Rec. Stats | Targets | Receptions | TDs | Yards | |
| Wright | 46 | 28 | 3 | 364 | Robinson | 91 | 45 | 7 | 758 | |
| Douglas | 31 | 17 | 1 | 174 | Hurns | 68 | 41 | 7 | 697 | |
| Green-Beckham | 26 | 12 | 2 | 181 | Lee | 11 | 4 | 0 | 63 | |
| Walker | 56 | 45 | 3 | 508 | Thomas | 33 | 15 | 1 | 139 | |
The Quick Grind
Notable injuries and suspensions: Kendall Wright, Justin Hunter (TEN, Out), Allen Hurns, Marqise Lee (JAC, Probable), T.J. Yeldon (JAC, Questionable)
TEN Matchup Rating: 4.0
JAC Matchup Rating: 5.5
Tennessee Titans
Quarterback: When Marcus Mariota (FD $7,100, DK $5,300) is in the right situation, he’s fantasy gold. In his brief NFL career, Mariota has gone over 20 FanDuel points on three occasions, with two four-touchdown games. However, the floor simply isn’t there for the rookie from Oregon, as three of his other starts have produced 11, 7 and 9 FD points. It’s easy to dismiss his poor game spent on one healthy leg against the Dolphins (the seven-point game), and matchups with Buffalo and Carolina are less than ideal. So it’s safe to say that Mariota is in play in a good matchup, so are the Jaguars a good matchup for quarterbacks? Absolutely. The Jags have allowed 17 passing touchdowns in nine games, and rank 30th in Football Outsiders DVOA against the pass. Six of the nine quarterbacks to face Jacksonville have gone over 270 yards passing with multiple touchdowns, and with this game expected to be competitive, we can rule out worry about a blowout of any sort for Mariota. He’s a very viable tournament play.
Running Game: The Jaguars have the toughest run defense in the league on a yards-per-carry basis, allowing 3.3 yards per attempt. This is good for a second-place ranking in DVOA against the run, despite a seemingly “weak” defense based on fantasy points allowed numbers. That’s because backs have been able to punch in scores against the Jags, but don’t have much success otherwise. The Titans don’t have a back we can trust for volume, but they do have Antonio Andrews (FD $5,600, DK $3,700), who should see a healthy amount of touches in scoring situations, should the Titans take a few snaps inside the red zone. Since Andrews’ first game (Week 3), the Titans have run the ball 20 times inside the opponents’ 20 yard line, and Andrews has 11 of those carries, and two touchdowns. The next closest back who actually sees regular time on the field is Dexter McCluster, who has two red zone rushes this year. Andrews is the back you want if you’re trying to find a play here, but I would stay away entirely.
Pass Catchers: In their last game, the Titans spread the ball around to six different receivers who all saw five or fewer targets. Delanie Walker (FD $5,700, DK $4,800) is the only consistent threat to catch a pass and do anything with it on this offense, and he faces a Jacksonville defense that ranks 31st against tight ends in the passing game, per Football Outsiders. Stacking Walker with Mariota is a smart strategy for Thursday contests, and he’s a strong play on his own in tournaments. And with a thinned out receiving corps, Harry Douglas (FD $5,300, DK $3,100) and Dorial Green-Beckham (FD $5,500, DK $3,200) will see a boost in usage, as will Anthony Fasano (FD $4,500, DK $2,500). Douglas isn’t a great player, but is a veteran set of hands that Mariota can look to on short throws, while Green-Beckham will likely still come off of the field on a regular basis, but has huge potential as a big-time talent with red zone skills. Fasano is a “backup tight end,” but the Titans use multiple tight ends often, and may do so even more often with their depth issues at wideout. He’s a very sneaky, risky tournament play coming off of a four-target game against Carolina.
The Takeaway: Mariota and Walker are the top options here by quite a large margin, while DGB, Douglas, Andrews and Fasano all have merit in tournaments, but none have enough of a track record to trust with any sort of confidence.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Quarterback: Blake Bortles (FD $7,500, DK $5,900) has five straight multi-touchdown performances, but also five straight games with an interception. Even in his very productive season-season breakout, Bortles can’t help but turn the ball over. This will play into the hands of the surprisingly efficient but still prone to error Tennessee passing defense. The Titans have faced the fewest passing attempts in the league this year, yet have allowed 16 touchdowns, which is slightly above league average. They’ve also allowed quarterbacks to rush for three scores against them further inflating their fantasy points allowed to a point that it betrays their actual ability to stop the pass. However, Bortles is a capable runner and has proven he can score touchdowns, so if those are the weaknesses of this Tennessee defense, he’s equipped to take advantage of them. I’m just concerned that the general efficiency of the Titans’ secondary (eighth in DVOA against the pass) will lead to some regression in touchdowns allowed over the final few weeks, and their weak run defense (26th in DVOA) may start allowing more fantasy points as things “return to normal.” Bortles is a fine option here, but there’s cause for concern, and I’d rather have Mariota in what I know is a great matchup.
Running Game: T.J. Yeldon (FD $6,400, DK $4,800) has been hurt over the short week leading up to this game, but appears to be ready to suit up against Tennessee. And as mentioned above, this means we have to decide whether or not the Titans’ stellar points allowed record to running backs is the truth about their defense, or if their weak advanced metrics are a more honest assessment. Five backs have rushed for 70 or more yards against the Titans this year, and four of them scored touchdowns on the ground. No other back picked up more than 52 yards on the ground, and none of the other players at the position have scored a touchdown against Tennessee this year. The names who have done well (Freeman, Miller, Stewart, Gore, Crowell) are fairly talented lead backs, a group we can cautiously add Yeldon to, and expect a solid performance. He has 15 or more touches in seven of eight appearances this year, which should be enough for 90 yards and a score against the Titans. He’s a good tournament play.
Pass Catchers: Allen Robinson (FD $7,700, DK $7,000)and Allen Hurns (FD $7,500, DK $5,800) remain the top two options in the Jacksonville offense, as the duo saw a combined 20 targets last week, and both scored touchdowns. The Titans do not have any talented corners remaining on their roster with Jason McCourty out with an injury, so there’s nothing to fear from a matchup standpoint. While I don’t expect fireworks from the Jacksonville offense, the passing game is going to run through these two players. Pick either one in tournaments, especially if you’re using Bortles, as his success is tied to the success of his receiving duo. Julius Thomas (FD $5,200, DK $3,500) hasn’t been the playmaker he was expected to be for the Jaguars, but facing a weak (26th in DVOA) defense against tight ends makes him worthy of a spot in a tournament lineup or two.
The Takeaway: Yeldon and the two Allens at wide receiver are the preferred options for Jacksonville, while Bortles and Thomas are fine plays, but have reasons to be cautious.