NFL Grind Down: Week 14 - Monday Night Football

Welcome to the RotoGrinders NFL Grind Down, an all-encompassing preview of the week ahead in the NFL from a daily fantasy sports perspective. We’ll provide all the statistics, insights and analysis you need to set your lineups for this week’s contests.

Every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts. Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. Each contest is then analyzed team-by-team, with a focus on finding matchups to exploit and trends to follow.

Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.

Minnesota Vikings Seattle Seahawks
Article Image Article Image

Minnesota Vikings

Notable injuries and suspensions: None

Quarterback: Your interest in Kirk Cousins probably depends on what site you play on. At $7,600 on FanDuel, for example, I’m less interested with Russell Wilson just $100 more on the other side and other viable options like Jameis Winston just a few hundred more. At $5,500 on DraftKings, however, he feels a bit under-priced relative to his talent. This matchup against the Seahawks is an average one for the Vikings and nothing too special, but the Vikings remain on the fringe of the playoff picture and will be highly motivated. I think there are better options on a full Thursday – Monday slate, but I understand the appeal on a site like DraftKings particularly.

Running Backs: The Vikings ran just 13 times last week as a negative game script forced them to abandon the run. The good news is that Dalvin Cook out-carried Latavius Murray 9 to 4, and out-targeted him 10 to 2 in the passing game. The 10 targets for Cook are a nice sign that even in a negative game script, Cook can find values to provide value. This gives Cook appeal in a Showdown slate. I’m probably not touching Murray unless you want to pray for a vulture touchdown. He’s just not seeing enough volume to be trusted.

Pass Catchers: The nice thing about the Vikings is that the targets are concentrated among Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs. Last week, they accounted for 16 of the 44 targets (36%). On the season, they account for an absurd 51% of the team’s targets. Diggs entered last Sunday with a questionable tag but played through his injury, finishing with a 5-49-0 line against Stephon Gilmore. Thielen had a rough day too, finishing with a 5-28-1 line against Devin McCourty. The fact both struggled funneled more passes towards Lord Aldrick Robinson, who saw a season-high nine targets. He hadn’t seen more than three targets in a game prior to this outing so I don’t expect this to become the new norm, but the Vikings did play him on a season high 70% of the snaps. The increased workload was likely driven by the fact the Vikings were playing from behind, so it was mainly game script driven. If you want to take some darts on him in a Showdown game, it’s not the worst idea. The Vikings are underdogs in this game, but I expect Thielen and Diggs to rebound in this spot and continue seeing large volume. Outside of these three, the only other option I’d consider if Kyle Rudolph, but he’s nothing to get excited about.

The Takeaway: The targets will continue going to Thielen and Diggs, and that’s where I’m focusing my attention for the Vikings. Aldrick Robinson is the YOLO GPP dart, while Cousins and Cook have some appeal on the Showdown slate but are secondary options for me.

Seattle Seahawks

Notable injuries and suspensions: None

Quarterback: Russell Wilson continues his wizardry this season, throwing a minimal amount of passes yet making the most of them. I thought this tweet by Adam Levitan summed up Wilson well:

Article Image

Wilson threw for four touchdowns last week against the 49ers on just 17 passes. That’s crazy. With this game expected to be closer, I would expect Wilson to see more of a normal workload closer to the 25-30 attempts per game he’s used to. The wild thing too is he’s not running this season. He has no rushing touchdowns and is averaging 20.4 rushing yards per game. Last season, he averaged 37 rushing yards per game and racked up three rushing touchdowns. The shift in philosophy to a run-heavy approach hasn’t slowed down Wilson this year as he’s just been more efficient. At this point, he’s in play in all formats until he proves otherwise not to be a DFS option.

Running Backs: Chris Carson racked up 13 carries for 69 yards before leaving last week’s game early with a dislocated finger. It sounds like he’ll be good to go for this Monday Night game but keep an eye on his status. With the game out of hand, Carson didn’t return and gave way to Rashaad Penny and Mike Davis. Penny had a 7-65-1 line on the ground while Davis had a 4-10-0 line on the ground. This isn’t an easy matchup on paper, but I still want Carson of this trio as he’ll see the biggest workload and should get goal-line work if healthy. Davis and Penny are only YOLO GPP plays on the Showdown slate if you’re building a bunch of lineups and hope Carson aggravates his injury mid-game.

Pass Catchers: Jaron Brown, Tyler Lockett and Doug Baldwin all found the end zone last week, but none saw more than four targets. The passing volume was skewed last week so it’s hard to read into the low volume, but the main takeaway for me is that Wilson spreads the ball out and has a full arsenal to choose from. You know who I played last week on the Seahawks on my best team? David Moore. You know who got zero catches on a team that scored 43 points? David Moore. Moore was coming off a 103-yard, one touchdown game the previous week and I fell for the trap. Moore still out-snapped Brown 28 to 15, but Moore is going to be volatile going forward and the presence of Brown and rookie Malik Turner have made this wideout corps a bit more cramped than I’d like.

The Takeaway: Chris Carson should be featured in this run-heavy offense if he’s healthy, while Russell Wilson continues to be uber efficient with his passing attempts. Figuring out where Wilson’s passes will go to makes stacking the Seahawks frustrating for DFS purposes. As soon as David Moore had a big game, he turned to dust and we saw Jaron Brown have a big game. Spread your exposure out in a Showdown format and get various pieces of this wideout group because of how spread out Wilson distributes his targets.

About the Author

fathalpert
Allan Lem (fathalpert)

Allan Lem (aka fathalpert) began playing fantasy sports in high school and transitioned to DFS in 2015. He graduated from UC Berkeley with a degree in Economics and lives in California with his wife and two kids. Allan got his break in the industry covering Preseason NBA content. He is currently the Social Media Manager for RotoGrinders, ScoresAndOdds, and FantasyLabs. Follow Allan on Twitter – @AllanLemDFS