NFL Grind Down: Week 15 - Monday Night Football
Use promo code grinders30 on first deposit to get $30 in free play on Yahoo!
Welcome to the RotoGrinders NFL Grind Down, an all-encompassing preview of the week ahead in the NFL from a daily fantasy sports perspective. We’ll provide all the statistics, insights and analysis you need to set your lineups for this week’s contests.
Every game will be broken down statistically, with several key elements highlighted in our charts. Vegas lines are broken down to show projected team totals, to give you an idea of who is favored to win, and often more importantly, how many points they’re expected to score. Each contest is then analyzed team-by-team, with a focus on finding matchups to exploit and trends to follow.
Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code, FanDuel promo code, and FantasyDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.
| New Orleans Saints | Carolina Panthers | |||||||||
 |  | |||||||||
New Orleans Saints
Notable injuries and suspensions: Ginn (Possible Return from IR)
Quarterback: It was a disappointing outing for Drew Brees last week, throwing for just 201 yards, one touchdown and one interception last week against a poor Buccaneers defense. Despite the plus matchup, Drew Brees’ road woes continue. It’s not that Brees has been “bad” on the road this season, but compared to his home splits, he’s just not the same player. In seven road games this season, Brees has just one game where he threw for 300 yards and a 11:3 touchdown to interception ratio. In six home games, he has four 300 yard games and a 20:1 touchdown to interception ratio. On paper this is a good spot for Brees – the Panthers have showed signs of being a funnel defense where they are a top-10 team against the run but a bottom-four team against the pass. So do you trust Brees can crush the Panthers in this matchup, or do you believe the numbers that Brees hasn’t been as efficient on the road? I’m going to give Brees the benefit of the doubt here, but I’d feel more comfortable using him if this were a home game.
Running Backs: We continue to see roughly a 60/40 split in favor of Alvin Kamara, but Kamara hasn’t had a touchdown in three weeks or hit 100 all-purpose yards. It’s clear the return of Mark Ingram has lowered both the floor and ceiling on Kamara. Ingram actually out-rushed Kamara 13 to 12 last week and was the one who found the end zone. I’ve generally leaned using Ingram in games where the Saints are expected to smash their opponent as the positive game script suits his skill set better. With the Saints entering as six point favorites, this game could stay close enough where Ingram is more of a touchdown-or-bust option this week. This feels like a Kamara game, but so did last week and that didn’t work out well. On a full slate I feel like there are safer options to go than this timeshare.
Pass Catchers: Michael Thomas remains the lone passing option that has been consistent. Thomas saw a team-high 13 targets and an 11-90-0 line last week, but it was his first time in five games he had seen more than eight targets in a game. The Panthers have allowed 28 passing touchdowns this season, tied for third most in the league with the 49ers, so that should give you an idea of how vulnerable this secondary has been. Thomas is an elite play in all formats given the matchup. Outside of Thomas, every other Saints pass catcher carries some risk. Tre’Quan Smith has been incredibly inconsistent lately. Over the past two weeks he’s played on 85% and 64% of the snaps, yet he has just a total of two targets. We know he’s capable of exploding so he remains a GPP option, but you’re banking on his skillset to come through. There’s talk of the Saints activating Ted Ginn from I.R. to bring a steadier option into this passing game, so monitor that situation as the Saints released Brandon Marshall earlier this week as a sign that Ginn is close. Ginn’s presence would likely mean fewer snaps for Smith, but perhaps that wouldn’t be a bad thing as it could take some defensive pressure off him. The remainder of these pass catchers (Ben Watson, Keith Kirkwood, Tommylee Lewis, Austin Carr, Josh Hill) are merely dart throws on a Showdown slate that are worth mentioning because of the high-powered offense they play in and the possibility of a touchdown, but that’s all they are.
The Takeaway: I have some concerns about Drew Brees’ road splits, as well as the timeshare that Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara have been in that has really hurt Kamara’s production. While the Saints are favored in this spot, I almost have more interest in the Carolina side because the production is more concentrated there while the fantasy production gets spread out in New Orleans. Michael Thomas is probably the most reliable option in this offense since we know the targets will be there.
Carolina Panthers
Notable injuries and suspensions: None
Quarterback: The Panthers have dropped five straight games and enter must-win territory to keep their playoff hopes alive. Cam Newton is coming off a brutal performance against a good Browns secondary, where he failed to throw a touchdown. It’s obvious the shoulder injury he’s dealing with is preventing him from launching the deep ball, and the Panthers are instead having to settle for short passes. For the second week in a row, Taylor Heinicke was called on to throw a Hail Mary pass, which further cements the case that Newton is struggling to throw the ball downfield. This matchup against the Saints’ secondary is a plus matchup on paper, but it’s fair to question how effective Newton is going to be as long as he’s ailing. He did rush five times for 23 yards so he is adding some fantasy points via the ground, but I wouldn’t use Newton in a full slate given these injury concerns.
Running Backs: Christian McCaffrey is going to have his hands full this week against the 3rd ranked run DVOA that the Saints will bring. McCaffrey found the end zone two more times last week and now has an absurd 12 touchdowns over his last seven games. With Newton hurting, McCaffrey has been the one taking the goal-line work in an effort to save Newton’s body. The loss of Greg Olsen has also shifted more red zone responsibilities over to McCaffrey. This isn’t a good matchup, but McCaffrey’s blend of red zone work and elite pass-catching skills make him an elite play in all formats. We also can’t dismiss the fact he’s played on every snap in four straight games and just never leaves the field. I’m banking on his role and talent to overcome the tough matchup.
Pass Catchers: Devin Funchess played on 39% of the snaps last week but didn’t record a reception on three targets. It seems like Funchess has fallen out of favor in this offense, while Curtis Samuel and D.J. Moore take larger roles instead. Both saw eight targets apiece last week and played on 90%+ of the snaps. At this point I feel safer getting exposure to either of these two over Funchess. The big story is that rookie Ian Thomas started for Greg Olsen and saw a team-high 11 targets and dropped a 9-77-0 line. He played on 82% of the snaps and has appeal in this offense with the Panthers relying more on shorter passes. On a full-PPR site, I like him as a cheap tight end option if he continues to see a lot of volume.
The Takeaway: I do have concerns about Cam Newton and his throwing shoulder, and that’s going to impact the passing options of Curtis Samuel and D.J. Moore. The player who could benefit the most is Ian Thomas if he continues getting peppered with short passes to move the chains. This is not an ideal matchup for Christian McCaffrey, but he’s still in play in all formats for me given his every-down role and goal-line usage.