Best NFL Week 13 Player Props at Online Sportsbooks
Oh, what I would do to go back to days of making labored reference to Meat Loaf songs for a two out of three performance. Last week, only the under on Josh Jacobs came through while Kyler Murray and Antonio Brown turned in absolute duds. So, we need to rebound. Luckily, I feel pretty good about the slate and the player prop offering across the industry this week. The only way to get back to Meat Loaf references is by sweeping this week to atone for last week. Here are my favorite player props for Week 13 in the NFL.
Make sure to check out our Week 13 Betting Lines and Picks and some NFL betting tips before diving into the action at online sportsbooks. Let’s get started.
NFL Week 13 Player Props — QB Pick
Taysom Hill Over/Under 189.5 Passing Yards
Taysom Hill will make his third start on the road in Atlanta in Week 13. Hill put critics to rest in Week 11 against these same Falcons but did not have to do much to play a quarterback-less Broncos team in Week 12. Online betting sites seem to think Hill is more of a mobile threat than a passing threat.
While this is probably true — Hill has rushed for 51 and 44 yards for four touchdowns — Hill will surely be forced to throw the football more in Atlanta. As three-point road favorites, the Saints will probably turn Hill loose against a relatively strong defense against the ground game. Ranked 25th in opposing rushing yards, the Atlanta secondary remains very leaky against the pass — ranking 2nd-worst in opposing passing yards. The Falcons continue to play hard for their interim coach, Raheem Morris, and booked an outstanding home victory against a playoff-hopeful Raiders team in Week 12. While the Raiders are not the Saints, the absolute boat race without Julio Jones and Todd Gurley established that the Falcons will continue to test opponents.
While I do not think Taysom Hill has 300 passing yards in him on Sunday, I do think 189.5 passing yards is way, way, way too low. For perspective, FanDuel Sportsbook sets this line at 199.5 yards. Give me the over at DraftKings before the number approaches competing sites.
My Pick: Over 189.5 Passing Yards -114 at DraftKings
NFL Week 13 Player Props — RB Pick
Jonathan Taylor Over/Under 48.5 Rushing Yards
Hello Taylor, my old friend… In actuality, Jonathan Taylor is pretty young with a schedule ahead that favors a true breakout for the rookie tailback. Full disclosure, I made a genuinely questionable trade in my home fantasy football league hoping to capitalize on Jonathan Taylor as a keeper next year. My picking this prop is an attempt to speak his success into existence, or write, whatever…
Let’s be real, though, I don’t need to caveat anything for the matchup Taylor sees in Week 13. Returning from the reserve COVID-19 list, Taylor is welcomed with one of the tastiest of matchups for running backs and a rushing prop that does not match up. Allowing 154.7 yards on the ground per game to opposing backfields, the Texans are reeling after the loss of Will Fuller due to suspension. The Colts want to run the football as much as possible (28.3 rushing attempts per game) and will look to shorten the game as 3.5-point road favorites.
The Indy coaching staff has yet to anoint Jonathan Taylor as their workhorse but everything is beginning to align. Taylor missed a week after putting together a strong showing against the Packers in Week 11. Taylor amassed 114 total yards — 90 rushing yards and four catches. In his absence, the Colts’ ground game was putrid even if the game script favored passing against the Titans. Nyheim Hines and Jordan Wilkins combined for 51 yards on 16 carries with the former rushing for only 2.9 yards per attempt.
I cannot find a single reason to fear failure against the second-best matchup for a running back. Amongst that same group of friends in my home league, we share our favorite bets to hammer by posting GIFs or pictures of Thor’s Mjolnir in our group chat. Well…
Give me the over. I would even take the over on a few more rushing yards for lesser vig.
My Pick: Over 48.5 Rushing Yards -125 at BetMGM
NFL Week 13 Player Props — WR Pick
D.K. Metcalf Over/Under 74.5 Receiving Yards
Speaking of superheroes, D.K. Metcalf and the Seahawks will face the Giants at home. At the time of this writing, the Seahawks are 10.5-point favorites with a 29.5-point implied team total. While the Giants will likely be without Daniel Jones (doubtful with a hamstring), the Giants’ defense represents a pretty strong matchup for opposing pass-catchers.
Why is that? While sitting in the middle of the pack against the passing yards per game, the Giants allow a robust 10.2 yards per completion. Yet, despite not being a good football team, the Giants limit opposing backfields to less than 100 rushing yards per game. The Giants’ defense is not that bad but will struggle to find a solution for a specimen like D.K. Metcalf.
While Metcalf has been a bit quieter in “difficult” cornerback matchups, he established himself as a complete alpha last week against the Philadelphia Eagles. Despite a confusing and tiresome social-media spat with the Birds’ defensive coordinator, nobody can deny just how talented Metcalf is in every facet of the game: physicality, speed, agility, blocking, etc… Metcalf is a budding superstar playing at home against a pretty drab team.
So, 74.5 receiving yards, huh? How many catches does D.K. really need to eclipse this total? Russell Wilson is on record stating that he visions Metcalf and himself going down as one of the top quarterback-receiver combos ever. I am not going to compare him to Calvin Johnson, but I am going to jump all over the over on this prop. Grab it on FanDuel for the best price and the lowest yardage total across online betting sites.
My Pick: Over 74.5 Receiving Yards -110 at FanDuel.
Good luck in Week 13! Share your prop picks with Joe on Twitter @JoeCistaro.
2020 NFL Player Props Record: 22-14
Net Units on One-Unit Bets: +6.32
Image Credit: Imagn