NFL PrizePicks Week 2 Predictions: Fields, Robinson, & Ridley Highlight Top Plays
In this space, we’ll look at exciting offers on the PrizePicks board for Week 1 of the NFL season and try to make some predictions based on projections, trends, and the market.
PrizePicks, a DFS Pick’em site, lays out player projections for us to stack on a ticket for user-created entries. They prompt us with a statistical projection for a player, and we get to pick whether or not the player will get More or Less than the line offered. There are hundreds of players from whom to choose and we only have to make at least two picks to create a contest. If you haven’t tried it yet, use the PrizePicks referral code “GRINDERS” to get a deposit match up to $100.
For NFL Week 2, we will focus on player yards because usage is so messy to project this early in the season. Yardage, on the other hand, we can see where there are more inefficiencies in the market. We’ll look at three picks to stack for your entries. One for passing yards, one for rushing yards, and one for receiving yards. The quarterback are most out of sorts, according to our projections, so we’ll touch on more than one who can be sprinkled around our contests. Running back is where we’ll get a little aggressive. Receiving yards is pretty straightforward.
PrizePicks Top Plays for NFL Week 2
- Justin Fields MORE than 174.5 passing yards
- Brian Robinson LESS than 59.5 rushing yards
- Calvin Ridley MORE than 67,5 receiving yards
Chicago Bears at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Justin Fields MORE/LESS Than 174.5 Passing Yards
This should be a slow game, so it’s weird to take a passing yards play for our contests. But we’re talking about a prompt at under 175, playing from a bit behind on the road.
Justin Fields only surpassed 174 passing yards four times out of 15 starts in 2022, but he really airs it out. His 9.1 IAY/PA was massive. If he gets the volume he should in a losing effort, we could be talking about over 200 air yards. Add in the YAC-master DJ Moore, himself, and getting to 175 passing yards should be a strong play.
Our projection currently has Fields at 211.22 passing yards. This is a huge jump from the 174.5 prompt.
If you just don’t like Fields, but wanna stack some other low passing yards prompts:
Brock Purdy is listed for MORE/LESS 214.5 passing yards, while we have him projected at 236.90.
Mac Jones is listed for MORE/LESS 220.5 passing yards, while we have him projected at 253.10.
Deshaun Watson is listed or MORE/LESS 206.5 passing yards, while we have him projected at 230.27.
PLAY: Fields MORE than 174.5 passing yards
Washington Commanders at Denver Broncos
Brian Robinson MORE/LESS Than 59.5 Rushing Yards
I love a good LESS on a timeshare back on the road as an underdog.
That’s exactly what Brian Robinson is. Robinson won’t only not get the volume, but we’re talking about a 3.8 YPC with a career-long of only 24 yards in 224 attempts. In a close win against a terrible team, he only played 61% of the snaps in Week 1.
59.5 is really aggressive. Multiply that by 17, and we’re talking about over 1,000 yards.
We have Robinson projected for 48.66 rushing yards.
A rushing play with which I’m struggling is Josh Jacobs MORE/LESS than 65.5 in what should be a blowout road loss. We have him projected for 86.26, and I’m not feeling that at all. Another aggressive projection is Bijan Robinson MORE/LESS than 64.5 rushing yards where we have him projected for 76.89, despite Tyler Allgeiger playing 29 Week 1 snaps to Bijan’s 33. I’d rather play Saquon Barkley LESS than 75.5 rushing yards where we have him projected for 61.84.
PLAY: Robinson LESS than 59.5 yards.
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Calvin Ridley MORE/LESS Than 67.5 Receiving Yards
With an over-under currently at 51.5 and a three-point spread in favor of the Chiefs, this game is ripe for a shootout where the Jags will be throwing a lot.
I might have buried the lead here. As I look deeper into this, with our 84.38 projection, 67.5 is hilarious.
The connection from Trevor Lawrence to Ridley was clear in Week 1. Ridley had about 97 air yards on a whopping 11 targets and followed his eight receptions up with 36 YAC. The Chiefs don’t have an answer for this, and Lawrence has no reason to stop challenging opponents to do so.
Another receiving yards prop that sticks out is Odell Beckham MORE/LESS than 38.5 receiving yards. I wanna call LESS, but I almost wanna wait ‘til the last minute on Mark Andrews news. That said, this 38.5 prompt could plummet or disappear if Andrews is out. I don’t know. I don’t think we need it, but it’s there and worth mentioning.