NFL Projected Ownership Analysis: Week 4

by Chris Gimino (ChrisGimino) Last Updated 2016-10-03 14:58:48

One thing that can easily get lost in the daily grind is that DFS is a game against other players, and not exclusively a contest to make the most accurate predictions.

Obviously we want to be very good at understanding what is likely to happen, but we cannot get so sure of our ability to predict player performance that we forget the true goal of the contest. That goal is to defeat all of our opponents. This article is designed to help you achieve that goal.

Editor’s Note: Predicting ownership can help you gain an even bigger edge on the field. Gain access to Chris Gimino’s FULL Ownership Projections (for FanDuel and DraftKings subscribers) here!

Last Week in Review

5 Hits

We had a solid week in terms of accuracy in Week 3. The correlation value of .9081 represents a solid link between projected and actual, and we’ll continue to examine our Week 4 projections up through kickoff trying to beat the high score. We nailed some of the chalk last week, including Deangelo Williams and David Johnson. We were also within close range of Ryan Tannehill and Jarvis Landry. I also posted the Seahwaks projection here, as we basically hit that one on the head.

5 Misses

Melvin Gordon blew away our projection, which was basically the highest on the entire slate for anybody at any position. The group-think when it came to his role and value was absolutely out of control. He was definitely highly owned for good reason, but we can learn from this experience. It is clearly possible for an individual value to eclipse 40% owned…even on a 14-game slate. We were also short on Demarco Murray, and the most likely factor we didn’t bake in there was recency bias.

Dennis Pitta was a straight up miss in our projections. We knew he’d be one of the highest owned TEs, but should have seen that his low price would have been attractive to players trying to cram in high-priced talent at other positions.

The two running backs we missed high on were partially a result of Melvin Gordon’s high ownership. Fantasy owners elected to use Gordon for value and not the two pass-catching backs Sims and Riddick.

Week 4 Analysis

Quarterback

All of America seems to “like that” in Week 4. Kirk Cousins is being endorsed across the industry as a top quarterback play in cash games and tournaments alike. His matchup with the Cleveland Browns is most likely driving that. Vegas is projecting the Browns to have a bad week on defense yet again, and from a pricing perspective, Cousins is one of the best point-per-dollar options in just about every projection model I’ve looked at. I have him as one of the top two highest-owned quarterbacks on both sites this week.

It’s déjà vu all over again as we find Philip Rivers appearing in this article as the chalk for the second straight week. Everybody knows the Saints defense is terrible. They were absolutely hammered on national TV to the point of humiliation. Vegas has endorsed the Chargers with a high team total, and industry-wide, there is a tremendous consensus among experts that Rivers is a good play. His point-per -dollar value is checking in at a high enough level that he’ll be used in cash games, which will bleed into his GPP ownership. I have some concerns that the popularity of another Charger player will eat into his ownership in tournaments, but ultimately the quarterback position tends to be spread out, and it’s hard to see any of the other options eclipsing him as one of the top two highest owned.

My Favorite QB Ownership Value of the Week

Either everyone in America who talks about DFS in public is awesome at keeping secrets, or Drew Brees is going to be under-owned in Week 4. To clarify, it’s not like nobody has mentioned him at all. Projection models seem to like him. It’s just that there is a very tangible buzz that is created by all the podcasts, videos, and articles that are produced on a weekly basis. He simply isn’t appearing in the headlines or top recommendations of any of them. This is the part where you tell yourself that Drew Brees Home/Road splits are a thing, and move on to the next recommendation. For those of you who are actually still reading, hear me out. Nobody is really imagining a game in which the Saints defense steps up and contains the Chargers; I think we can all agree upon that. So why in the world aren’t we expecting Drew Brees and the Saints to have to keep pace? Are we thinking the crowd in San Diego is going to be the reason Brees doesn’t play well on the road? Is it going to be the weather in San Diego? Is Jason Verett capable of covering all 20 of the Saints passing game threats at the same time? I can’t say that I’m completely enamored with this play, but the bottom line is that there’s a better chance of him providing an edge at the quarterback position than his ownership implies. That constitutes value in my book, and for that reason you should consider rolling out a few extra Drew Brees stacks in your multi-entry GPP portfolio.

Running Back

Melvin Gordon was 42 percent owned last week in the DraftKings Millionaire Maker contest and roughly 36 percent owned in the FanDuel Sunday Million. There are two fewer games on this week’s slate, and the Chargers will get the chance to run plays against the Saints’ Swiss cheese run defense. I am currently living in fear that I have not projected Melvin Gordon high enough, but I hold firm that the line above is the correct one to set for this week’s action. He’s just about as chalky as you’ll ever see anyone, and as long as my projection at least says that, I’m doing my job.

Jordan Howard is extremely inexpensive on both DraftKings and FanDuel. He is being projected for a heavy workload given the situation in Chicago, and fantasy owners are flocking to him in droves as a value option this week. Howard’s point-per-dollar appeal is clearly one of the main driving forces here, but the expert community is really doing him a service by talking him up in every single content medium I have examined. The matchup isn’t driving anyone away, and the roster you can build around him makes Howard difficult to pass up. I’m not sweating at all projecting him as one of the highest-owned running backs in Week 4.

My Favorite Running Back Ownership Value of the Week

We have a lot of very chalky options this week, and if you want to fade any of them, you better have a plausible alternative. Spencer Ware could be that alternative this week. He will participate in a potentially fantasy friendly contest with a key role in an offense that is a five-point underdog on the road. To me, this means a more uptempo identity for the Chiefs offense. The matchup with the Steelers is potentially underrated, as Pittsburgh ranks 26th in overall DVOA and 30th in pass defense to the RB this season. Jamaal Charles will be eased back into action this week and won’t detract much from Ware’s workhorse role in all likelihood. At his projected ownership, we can emerge victorious in two scenarios. One scenario is he explodes for multiple catches and TDs on Sunday Night Football and outscores everyone. The other is that he simply has a good game and the heavy chalk implodes. Either way, there is a decent chance Ware can keep pace or better, and help us gain an advantage on our opponents.

Wide Receiver

Antonio Brown is my current projection for highest-owned player on DraftKings and an overall highly owned play for all sites. The massive number of high-quality value plays on DK make it possible for multiple high-price studs, and that means a gaggle of fantasy players tripping over themselves to stuff the #1 fantasy player in the land into their lineup. We need not over-analyze this. If you can afford Brown, you generally use him. This week, you can pretty easily afford him, and that will lead to massive ownership.

Terrelle Pryor projects as a massive value on DraftKings. On FanDuel, Pryor is priced much more appropriately and will see much lower ownership as a result. The primary driver of ownership will be his high point-per-dollar projection. The expert community has done us no favors with their activity this week, as Pryor has been thoroughly discussed by pretty much everybody as an elite value on DK. The multi-dimensional “slash” role and recency bias are definitely also at play here. He will be a core cash game option, which generally inflates GPP ownership. Pryor checks all boxes for mega-chalk on DK, and on FD his ownership should be artificially enhanced as a result.

My Favorite Wide Receiver Ownership Value of the Week

The matchup with the Carolina Panthers coupled with a healthy dose of recency bias will prevent Julio Jones from attracting a high ownership percentage this weekend. Some outlets are projecting Julio even lower than I am, and I don’t blame them at all. My projections are currently factoring in the value plays on both sites as a means to allow more people to roster Julio. In addtiion, I believe his status as a stud player widely known to the public will help. Ultimately, he won’t be as highly owned as he should be given his role and talent. Carolina primarly plays a zone defensive scheme. Julio can absolutely eat against this type of scheme, doing his damage via a high target/receptions volume. Should Julio find the end zone, he should propel himself into the range of top raw scorers on the week. The bottom line is a better chance that Julio ends up on the winner than his ownership implies in my mind, and I like using Julio on this rare occasion where he will be relatively low owned.

Tight End

I have changed my tune very recently on who the highest-owned tight ends will be in Week 4. I was previously projecting Hunter Henry to garner the highest ownership, but I have since pivoted to Zach Miller on DraftKings. Miller was the highest-owned TE on Fantasy Aces this Thursday by a wide margin, and he was nearly identically priced to Henry. Miller is being touted left and right as a viable play, and his matchup with the Lions is considered to be very good for the TE. Ultimately, it’s his price tag that is truly driving the projection, though. Fantasy players are willing to take TE savings when they make sense, and Miller makes sense in Week 4. He’ll be one of the higher-owned options even if he falls short my projection.

Hunter Henry is playing in one of the highest Vegas totals of the week and is facing a historically bad defense. Like Miller, his cheap price tag will help propel him towards the top end of ownership in Week 4. He’s also being endorsed by projection models and tout sites to a high degree. It will be interesting to see who wins the battle of the low price TEs this week in terms of ownership, but ultimately, there is a stong case to use both of these players. The field will capitalize on their values and own them heavily.

My Favorite TE Ownership Value of the Week

I don’t really want to write up Coby Fleener, but it’s once again shaping up that he’ll be slightly under-owned as compared to his prospects for success. The Chargers have allowed the fifth-most points to TEs this season, and there is nothing about their personnel that says the TE can’t be productive in this game. Fleener is potentially the best bet of all the Saints pass catchers to get it done in Week 4, and he doesn’t carry a hefty price tag on either site. If you agree with me that Fleener will be under 10 percent owned this weekend, then I think we have to own him AT LEAST as much as the field does. It may even be smart to go slightly overweight.

Defense

The Houston Texans and New England Patriots are shaping up to be two of the highest-owned defenses of the week. The Texans will face a Tennessee team that has demonstrated clearly that they have work to do on offense. Their receiving corps is extremely defensible, and the Texans project to have enough talent to slow down the Titan running attack. Vegas has only projected the Titans for 17 points, and fantasy owners will take notice. They’ll roster Houston as the chalk this weekend, noting their matchup and pricing as encouragement. New England is too cheap and will face an extremely depleted Buffalo Bills team. Like Tennessee, Vegas is disrespecting the Bills offense with a paltry 18.5 implied team total. We can expect the field to take notice of the Sammy Watkins to IR news and use it as additional ammunition to take the Patriots in week 4.

My Favorite DST Ownership Value of the Week

The Ravens are once again emerging as a defense I want to use in Week 4, and I am currently not projecting them to be highly owned. RotoGrinders’ own Brit Devine needs to be credited for bringing the Raiders’ ridiculous travel itinerary to my attention. They’ve traveled across the country three times in the past week, and will play a 1PM game against the Ravens on the East coast. The offense has already looked somewhat disjointed this year, and going back to the middle of last season, the Ravens defense has been somewhat stingy against their enemies. I frequently endeavor to fade the chalk on defense, and this week I’ll use the Ravens as means to get off the top three or four defenses.