NFL Week 1 Totals: Over/Unders That Will Impact DFS

by Andy Means (meansy53) Last Updated 2021-09-08 19:15:58

NFL DFS analyst Andy Means visits the sportsbook to break down two games with totals that you should be aware of before making daily fantasy lineups. See the table for a full list of Week 1 lines and Over/Unders across the football slate.

NFL Week 1 Totals at Online Sportsbooks

Cardinals at Titans, Over/Under 51.5 Points

Note: If you like the Over, the best odds are at BetMGM.

Even though this game has one of the highest totals of Week 1, I’ve had my eye on it (it being the over, for the record) ever since lines got released. Yes, both teams made moves in the offseason to upgrade their defenses, but I think it’s the offenses that are clearly going to win out here.

When you look at Arizona, they are coming off of a 2020 season in which they were actually sixth in yards per game (384.6). And while that resulted in them scoring ‘only’ 25.6 points per game (ranked 13th), you’d expect that number to creep up with another year under their belts with this regime and (especially) improved personnel.

In an offseason that saw Arizona acquire names like A.J. Green and J.J. Watt, perhaps the biggest move they made was taking Rondale Moore (Purdue) in the second round of this year’s draft. Moore, who will be replacing Larry Fitzgerald, turned heads in training camp and the preseason. And guess who is the bare minimum ($3,000) on DraftKings in Week 1? So a Cardinals stack that might start out expensive with Kyler Murray ($7,600) and DeAndre Hopkins ($7,800) suddenly just got a lot more affordable.

The Cardinals backfield saw a slight makeover as well, as Kenyan Drake is now with the Raiders. Arizona brought in James Conner as his replacement to put alongside Chase Edmonds. Edmonds, who actually had a 12.2% target share with the Cardinals last season, is certainly the more appealing target on DraftKings with their full-point PPR scoring. He is only $4,600 for this Week 1 matchup against the Titans, which leaves plenty of room for profit potential should he be able to find the end zone on Sunday.

On the other side of this game we have the Titans, a team that was third in yards per game (396.4) last season and fourth in points per game (30.7). And what did they do in the offseason? Oh, just brought in some guy named Julio Jones … not sure if you’ve heard of him!

Where things get a little tricky with the Titans is that their old offensive coordinator, Arthur Smith, is now the head coach of the Falcons. He was replaced with Todd Downing, who oversaw the Titans tight ends last season. Will Downing take the “if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it” approach with this offense? Last season, the Titans rode Derrick Henry (duh) to those gaudy offensive numbers, running the ball on 50% of their plays (3rd highest % in the league). The flip side of that means them throwing the ball on 50% of their plays was the third lowest % in the league. So…what’s it going to look like this season under a new OC?

Considering he had four games last season between 36-40 DraftKings points, I will never tell someone not to roster Derrick Henry ($8,800). And if you game-stack this one, you’d (obviously) love to see him break an 80-yard TD run right out of the gate. That would likely mean even more throwing from the Cardinals passing attack, making all of those pieces we discussed above even more appealing.

The good thing about the Titans passing attack is that, even with this high total, I doubt any of them see much ownership on the first big DFS slate of the year. That includes a $6,800-priced Julio Jones, who we’d be rushing to roster so fast at this price in seasons past that we might trip over our own feet on the way to the computer. This is a completely different situation than he has seen in Atlanta though, especially considering the Titans actually have a beast to feed in the backfield.

To summarize all of this from strictly a DFS perspective, my initial inclination is that—despite this high total—I doubt we see a heavy amount of ownership on players from this game with the exception of Rondale Moore. That could also lead to Kyler Murray seeing his ownership tick up a bit too as a result, but it’s rare that you see one quarterback dominate the ownership on slates this big.

So if you want to stack this game up, there are plenty of routes to go. You can fade Moore (if you does end up chalky, which who knows based on how far away we are from Sunday) and look to other cheap pass-catchers like Christian Kirk ($4,500), A.J. Green ($3,800), Josh Reynolds ($3,400), or either of the respective teams new TE1’s (Anthony Firkser at $3,200; Maxx Williams at $2,700). You can also eat the Moore chalk and get different elsewhere.

Any way you slice it though, I’m expecting this one to be a shootout with a ton of points. Perhaps the best stat I’ve found regarding these teams from last year is that they were two of the top four fastest-paced teams in the league, per Football Outsiders. The Cardinals were at 25.06 seconds per play, which was ranked second in the league behind only the Cowboys (23.59). And the Titans? They were fourth at 25.99 seconds per play. Quicker snaps likely leads to more total plays. More plays means more opportunities for stats (for fantasy) and points (for fantasy and the over!).

Now let’s hope this all comes to fruition and we see both of these offenses put up 30+ points. If this turns into a parade of field goal attempts, I might throw my phone against the wall.

Browns at Chiefs, Over/Under 53 Points

Another high-total Week 1 game—the highest, in fact—is Browns at Chiefs. Contrary to the game we just talked about though, there wasn’t a lot of roster turnover for either of these teams. Well, at least when it comes to the guys we roster in DFS.

While the Chiefs went to great lengths to improve their offensive line this past offseason (current group is ranked #7, per Pro Football Focus), it’s still mostly the same ol’ crop of players at the skill positions (DraftKings pricing below):

Patrick Mahomes ($8,100)

Clyde Edwards-Helaire ($6,600)

Tyreek Hill ($8,200)

Travis Kelce ($8,300)

The uncertainty with this offense though is who steps up as the WR2 now that Sammy Watkins is in Baltimore. Because if you get it right in Week 1, you are getting some nice salary relief on an offense that will be uber expensive to stack all season long. Mecole Hardman is $4,800. Demarcus Robinson is $4,300. Byron Pringle is $3,300. If you roster the guy who happens to catch a house-call on a bomb from Mahomes, you are going to be sittin’ pretty!

It’s pretty much the same story with the Browns:

Baker Mayfield ($5,900)

Nick Chubb ($7,200)

Kareem Hunt ($5,500)

Jarvis Landry ($6,000)

Odell Beckham ($5,400)

Austin Hooper ($4,000)

It’s basically the same names as last year, but touches are spread out a little more in a Cleveland offense that is far more run-heavy than what we see out of Kansas City. In 2020, the Chiefs had a 62.5% / 37.5% (Pass/Run) split. The Browns though? They were 52% pass and 48% run. That was the fourth lowest pass play percentage but the fourth highest run play percentage. If the Chiefs get out to a big lead early, how long will the Browns stick to that ground game?

So if the Browns do find themselves in catch-up mode, the prices on their pass-catchers make the game-stack here extra appealing. The expensive Nick Chubb, who only had a 4.7% target share last season, would be an easy guy to look past. Kareem Hunt, who had a 10.7% target share last season, would make far more sense.

And even though Jarvis Landry finished last season with a team-high 24% target share, it was only at 19.6% in the first seven games of the season. Remember, Odell Beckham tore his ACL in the seventh game, and it was Beckham who was leading the team in target share in those first seven games (22%).

Ultimately, there are plenty of combinations that can be squeezed in if you want to get a lot of access to this high total. However, once you get past the obvious trio of Mahomes/Kelce/Tyreek—who aren’t exactly cheap, by the way—it is going to require far more guesswork. If you guess right though, you could have a chance to be sitting at the top of the leaderboards come Sunday evening.

Image Credit: Imagn