NFL Week 13 Betting Lines and Picks 2021
NFL Week 13 lines are out and already moving! Find out if the Cowboys will get right in New Orleans, whether Kyler Murray will pick up where he left off pre-injury, and if the Patriots can stay hot against the Bills, as NFL betting analyst Sloan Piva previews his picks for every game.
Happy Tuesday, everyone! I hope you all had a fantastic Turkey Day, highlighted by family, friends, food, and football. There was plenty of the latter to consume, including a feast of upsets and some utter blowouts. The Pats keep rolling, winners of sixth straight, and look poised to blitz the top spot of the conference for the umpteenth time in Bill Belichick’s reign. The Bengals and Bills are back in the business of blowouts, though, and Las Vegas is still in the money after an OT win in Dallas. Tompa Brady surmounted the pesky Colts, the Niners outlasted the Vikes, the Pack upended the Rams, and the Ravens toughed out the Browns. Team—break!
Each Tuesday, we give you NFL betting tips for every single game of the upcoming week’s schedule. We rank the 1:00 p.m. and 4:00 p.m. Sunday games by order of confidence level, and of course provide our best bets for each of the three primetime games.
So, let’s get right to NFL Week 13 lines and betting picks, starting with Thursday Night Football.
NFL Week 13 Lines and Betting Picks
Dallas Cowboys at New Orleans Saints +3.5, O/U 47.5
The Cowboys have been banged up for a few weeks now, and they just lost an overtime heartbreaker to the Raiders on Thanksgiving Day. But the Saints just got rolled 31-6 by the Bills, showcasing their inferiorities at the quarterback position. I rarely spring for the favorite in primetime games, but it’s tough to stay away from Dallas here. The Cowboys have been afforded an extra few days of rest, they have a much better skill-position corps, and they have playmakers on both sides of the ball. With Dallas wideouts CeeDee Lamb and Amari Cooper back in action, I think the ‘boys cover for the ninth time in 12 games this season. Buy a point-and-a-half if you’re as queasy as I am with primetime spreads.
PICK: Cowboys -3.5
Early Sunday Games (1:00 p.m. Slate), ranked in order of confidence level
Los Angeles Chargers at Cincinnati Bengals -3, O/U 50
This should be a fun game, but I’m more tempted to bet the OVER than I am to pick a winner. Gun to head, I’m going with the Bengals, who completely outclassed the Steelers at just about every level on Sunday. Cincy got off to a 31-3 lead at halftime, and finished 41-10. Joe Mixon had 165 rushing yards and two TDs, and Tee Higgins hauled in six catches for 114 yards and a score. Good luck, LA! The Chargers have struggled all season to stop the run, allowing a league-worst 145.3 ground yards per game. Denver also held the Bolts to 7-of-14 on third down in a 28-13 rout at Mile High over the weekend. I think last year’s No. 1 pick Joe Burrow outduels 2020 Rookie of the Year Justin Herbert, and the Bengals hold court. Buy a half-point if you like to play it safe like I do, and fire away on the OVER. Cincy averages 28.1 points per game (6th in the NFL), while the Bolts average 24.8 (14th).
PICK: Bengals -2.5 (buy ½ pt), OVER 50
Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans +8.5, O/U 46
Big spreads are usually a no-go for me, but I’m very intrigued by the Colts at anything under -10 this weekend. Carson Wentz has been rolling, Jonathan Taylor is currently the best running back in football, and Indy seems to believe again. Hell, this squad almost mounted a Week 12 upset against the reigning-champion Bucs, who coincidentally are the only team in the NFL with more points than Indy. Now the Colts need a victory to stay in the playoff hunt of a very competitive AFC. Frank Reich’s guys won’t leave any room for error in this one—they are 4-1 against the spread in away games this season, while Houston is 1-4 straight up at home.
PICK: Colts -8.5
Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions +7, O/U 46.5
The Vikings suffered a tough-luck loss to San Fran Sunday, which included an injury to top Minnesota running back Dalvin Cook that should sideline him for at least two games. The Niners dominated the time of possession (37:07-22:53), and held Kirk Cousins and the Vikes to just 17 first downs. Now they get a date with the Lions, the only winless team remaining in the NFL. Considering no other team has fewer than two wins, I’m going with Detroit to at least battle and cover the +7 this week. Hell, the Lions covered against Chicago on Thanksgiving—their third cover in five home games this season—and now they have a few extra days of prep against a Minnesota team that bleeds points on the road (29.5 points allowed per away game, second-worst in the NFL). Losing a player as imperative to your offense as Cook can be debilitating—upset alert in Motown this weekend. We believe in you, Jared Goff!
PICK: Lions +7
New York Giants at Miami Dolphins -3, O/U 41.5
These squads are both coming in hot, with the Giants on the heels of a 13-7 upset over Philly and the Dolphins having just smacked around the Panthers. I’ll go with the team that won much more convincingly: Miami. Tua Tagovailoa looked healthy and confident, connecting with favorite rookie receiver Jaylen Waddle for 9-137-1 on the day. Running back Myles Gaskin found the end zone twice, and the ‘phins possessed the ball for nearly 38 minutes. You have to believe Miami enters this Week 13 home game against a 4-7 Giants squad with a ton of moxie.
PICK: Dolphins -3
Arizona Cardinals at Chicago Bears +7.5, O/U 45.5
The Cardinals just enjoyed a much-needed bye week, undoubtedly thankful for some R&R. Arizona had suffered injuries to just about every layer of its offense throughout the tail end of its NFL-leading 9-2 start. The Desert Birds’ high-profile injury list has included QB and MVP candidate Kyler Murray, perennial Pro Bowl receiver DeAndre Hopkins, and dual-purpose back Chase Edmonds. Yipes! I almost feel bad for Chicago, which just had trouble knocking off the winless Lions on Thanksgiving Day. The Cards aren’t my favorite pick of the week by any means, but I’d certainly rather take them -7.5 than the Bears at +7.5. Arizona has gone a perfect 6-0 against the spread on the road this season, while Chicago is 0-3 ATS as a home underdog.
PICK: Cardinals -7.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons +11, O/U 50.5
I saved the highest spread of the slate for last. I wouldn’t bet this spread either way, because the Buccaneers and Falcons have both been so volatile over the past month. But if I had to pick a winner, it would be the Bucs. Tampa Bay railed the Dirty Birds 48-25 in Week 2, and the only winning squad the ATL has defeated was the Trevor Siemian-led Saints. I guess give me TB and TB -11, and the UNDER on the 50.5, but I’d rather not touch any part of this divisional game.
PICK: Bucs -11, UNDER 50.5
Late Games (4:00 p.m. Slate), ranked in order of confidence level
Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers +3.5, O/U 43.5
These AFC North foes are both coming off tilts with their other two divisional opponents—the Ravens narrowly beat the Browns 16-10, while the Steelers got gobsmacked by the Bengals 41-10. I don’t think the Steelers are any good at this point, and the Big Ben Roethlisberger era needs to end. So, while Baltimore wasn’t overly impressive against Cleveland, I think it will be a much different story for Lamar Jackson and company in Steel City on Sunday. Expect an easy cover for the road faves here—the Ravens haven’t been great against the spread this season, but they’re certainly more than four points better than Pittsburgh.
PICK: Ravens -3.5
Jacksonville Jaguars at Los Angeles Rams -12.5, O/U 48
Never bet a spread that could be decided by garbage-time bologna. The Rams can (and should) crush the Jaguars this weekend, after losing to reigning MVP Aaron Rodgers and the Packers in Week 12. But they could also easily allow the Jags to stay in this one, or at the very least stay within 12 points. Look at Jacksonville’s highlights since September 30: three-point loss in Cincy, three-point win over Miami, three-point win over AFC-leading Buffalo, six-point loss to Indy. This has ‘trap game’ written all over it, so I’ll just pick the OVER because I can’t abstain.
PICK: OVER 48
Sunday & Monday Night Football Picks
Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs -10, O/U 47.5
Heavy primetime favorites are usually a terrible bet, and the 7-4 Chiefs have actually suffered their worst season in the Pat Mahomes era. Meanwhile, the Broncos are coming off a convincing 28-13 win over the fellow division-rival Chargers. Full disclosure, I think Kansas City should win its fifth consecutive game—Andy Reid and his high-profile offense has had two weeks to prepare for this game—but I have little confidence it can knock off a division-rival and playoff contender by 10 in primetime. The Chiefs rank 24th in the NFL with 252.7 passing yards surrendered per game, and they are 1-5 as a home favorite this season. Take the Broncos and the points, and consider taking the OVER on the relatively-low total.
*PICK: Broncos +10, OVER 47.5
New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills -2.5, O/U 44
Whoo-wee, does it feel good to be a New England fan. The Pats have won six straight games, a streak this franchise has reached in a whopping 14 seasons since Bill Belichick became head coach in 2000 (side note: every single Pats Super Bowl-winning season has featured a six-game winning streak). Rookie QB Mac Jones has been dealing, the Pats’ ground game has been hitting on all cylinders, and Belichick’s defense is—surprise, surprise—awesome once again. But these Bills are tough, especially in Buffalo this time of year. This has the potential to be one of the better games of the 2021 NFL season. The Pats have the second-best scoring offense in the AFC with 336 points, while the Bills have the third-best in the conference with 326. The Bills have the best scoring defense in the entire NFL with 182 points allowed, while the Pats have the second-best in the league with 190. Those are obviously the two best scoring differentials in professional football. Everyone who watches this game wins, but I’ll be going with Belichick +3.5 after buying a half-point. I’m also leaning toward the OVER, as I think more than just defense will determine the winner of this game.
PICK: Patriots +3, OVER 44
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