NFL Week 15 Daily Fantasy Recap

by Stephen Keech (SBK) Last Updated 2013-12-21 02:07:25

Note: Stats below do not include the Monday Night Football game.

What Worked

• Jamaal Charles. How could I start with anyone else? Five touchdowns, over 200 total yards and eight receptions on eight targets will always put you at the forefront of fantasy discussion for the following week. Charles was a difference maker in the DFFC and PFFC as well as in all GPP’s across the industry; you weren’t going to win without him. He was unstoppable in the screen game, taking both of his first two swing passes to the house for first quarter touchdowns. In the second quarter, he added a short rushing touchdown followed by another score just a few minutes later. Charles became just the fourth player in NFL history to score four touchdowns by halftime, but he apparently wasn’t satisfied with that. Late in the third quarter, he took an Alex Smith pass 71 yards for his fifth score of the day. The scary part is that his day could have been even bigger (although that’s been REALLY picky). Knile Davis actually finished with one more carry then Charles, and scored a TD of his own once the game was out of hand in the fourth. I’m sure anyone who played Charles isn’t complaining about that, but it just shows how effective he was with just 16 total touches, one of his lowest totals of the season. Charles has entrenched himself as the clear top fantasy running back of the 2013-2014 season, and it’s not even close anymore. Since four of Charles’ touchdowns were receiving scores, Alex Smith also had himself quite a day, matching Charles with five total trips to the endzone (the 5th was a 6-yard pass to Sean McGrath).

• Nick Foles to DeSean Jackson. While the actual on-field performance for Nick Foles wasn’t one of his better days, his fantasy numbers looked just fine. He threw for 428 yards and 3 TD’s (with one interception), and he was a relatively popular choice across the industry due to the juicy match-up with the Vikings secondary. A nice chunk of his production landed in the hands of DeSean Jackson, who caught a 30-yard touchdown in the corner of the endzone to momentarily put the Eagles back in the game in the third quarter. Jackson finished the day with ten catches for 195 yards and the aforementioned TD, and did so on 16 total targets. After a slow first half in which the Vikings controlled the clock, Foles came out firing in the second half, accounting for most of his total yardage on the day and all three of his TD’s. 41 rushing yards on top of the passing stats was just icing on the cake for the second-year quarterback, who will always be a threat for a few points on the ground in Chip Kelly’s offense.

• Matt Cassel to Greg Jennings. This duo was lightly owned compared to the Philly tandem, but they were more productive in terms of what it cost to roster them this weekend. The Eagles have really struggled with receivers this year (notably slot receivers, where Jennings spends a lot of his time) and it didn’t get any better for the Birds this week. More of the field was on electrifying rookie Cordarrelle Patterson, but Jennings blew him out of the water in Week 15. Jennings reeled in 11 of his 13 targets for 163 yards and a touchdown, which came in the first quarter on a 57-yard catch and run. The former Packer has been much more productive with Matt Cassel running the offense, and it would be surprising to see the Vikings go away from him in Week 16 after a big victory. Cassel threw for 382 yards and two scores, and was well worth whatever it cost to roster him across the industry. With 78 total points scored in this game, it’s no surprise to see plenty of fantasy goodness come out of it.

• Having a big piece of the Green Bay/Dallas game. There really wasn’t a disappointing fantasy performance out of any of the major pieces for either team, the key phrase there being “fantasy performance.” Tony Romo (and the Cowboys play calling) completely choked this one away, and it must have been a brutal fourth quarter for Dallas fans to watch. The two quarterbacks combined for over 650 yards and six TD’s, four of which belonged to Matt Flynn. The glorified back-up threw for 299 yards and hooked up with four different receivers for scores, and led the Packers to an amazing come-from-behind win. Both running backs totaled over 130 yards on the ground with a score; Eddie Lacy ran for 141 yards and added the game-winning TD on a one-yard plunge with under two minutes to play, while DeMarco Murray turned his 18 carries into 134 yards, and scored his touchdown just before halftime. Murray’s day could have been bigger if the Cowboys would have been willing to control the clock late in the game, but more on that later. While the main post-game story for Dez Bryant was about him walking off the field before the game was over, he deserves some credit for a huge stat line. Bryant was targeted 17 times and caught 11 of them for 153 yards and a touchdown, and was rostered by both the 1st and 2nd place finishers in the PFFC.

• Kirk Cousins to Pierre Garcon. Cousins was one of the more popular value plays at the QB spot this weekend (especially on FanDuel), and against an awful Falcons secondary, he was a smart play. Atlanta has been getting torched by opposing offenses all season (especially since their Week 6 bye), and Cousins took advantage by airing it out 45 times for 381 yards and 3 TD’s. He targeted his top weapon 10 times, which turned out to be more then enough for Garcon to put up one of his best games of the year. Garcon had fallen into a lull over the past four games with RGIII at the helm, but got it going early with Cousins on a 53-yard touchdown pass in the second quarter. At the end of the day, the former Mount Union standout had seven catches for 129 yards and scored for the first time since Week 10. This duo could be worth targeting again next week against a Dallas defense which just allowed Matt Flynn to throw for 4 TD’s, and most of us remember what Josh McCown did to them on MNF the week before.

• The Bears. – Speaking of the Bears, they avoided a serious QB controversy by rallying late to beat the Browns on the road. Jay Cutler had thrown two interceptions before hooking up with Brandon Marshall for a short touchdown a few seconds before halftime. Even with Marshall seeing a heavy dose of Joe Haden, Cutler still targeted him 13 times, six of which were completed for 95 yards. Cutler also found Alshon Jeffrey for another long highlight-reel score, which tied the game up early in the fourth quarter. This could have been a rough week for the Bears had they not pulled this one out, as some would have surely been calling for Josh McCown to again fill in as the starter. Matt Forte had a very successful day on the ground, but his upside was capped since he failed to add a touchdown to his 130 total yards.

What Disappointed Us

• Shane Vereen. Taking into account how popular of a play he was, Shane Vereen takes the cake as the biggest bust of Week 15. Vereen totaled just 21 yards on the day, and for some reason touched the ball just five times. He was targeted seven times by Brady, but only caught three of them for a measly eight yards. Since he’s not usually much of a threat to carry the ball more than a handful of times, Vereen absolutely has to turn his targets into catches and positive yardage for him to produce successful fantasy lines. He burned plenty of people in both the DFFC (12% owned) and the PFFC (53% owned), but he’s an interesting bounce-back candidate in Week 16 against the Ravens.

• The Browns. They managed to score 31 points, but it didn’t translate to fantasy success for the offense. Two defensive touchdowns and an Edwin Baker 2-yard run accounted for the first three touchdowns, and Josh Gordon didn’t find the endzone until there was less than a minute remaining in the game. Before that long strike (a 43-yarder), Gordon had just two catches for 24 yards on nine targets, so the touchdown really salvaged his day. After a big game against the Patriots, Jordan Cameron went right back to his inconsistent ways, posting just three catches for 23 yards on six targets. Jason Campbell threw for just 273 yards and a 1/2 TD-to-INT ratio, and he wasn’t even the biggest disappointment for the Browns on Sunday. Chris Ogbonnaya was one of the most popular value options at running back, due to the dream match-up with the Chicago run defense and the absence of plodder Willis McGahee. Ogbonnaya ended up with just seven rushing yards on five carries, but did contribute five catches for 39 yards. LeSean McCoy should have a little more success against the Bears run-D next week on MNF.

• The Saints. It’s no secret the Saints are a better team when they take the field at home, but I don’t think many people expected them to score just 16 points against the NFL’s 27th ranked pass defense. They weren’t dealing with weather issues (the Rams play their home games in a dome), so it’s not like they can use that excuse. Their biggest downfall may have been the lack of success in the running game, as they became too one-dimensional once they got in an early hole. Drew Brees did throw for almost 400 yards, but only added one touchdown and turned the ball over three times. The Saints ran the ball just 20 times compared to 56 passing attempts, and averaged just 3.1 yards per carry, but couldn’t continue the ground game after they came out in the second half down 24-3. Both Pierre Thomas and Darren Sproles contributed in the passing game to make up for sub 25-yard rushing days, but neither found the endzone. Jimmy Graham may have been the biggest disappointment of the group, catching just two of his six targets for an uninspiring total of 25 yards. For what it costs to roster him, that performance probably crushed some lineups this weekend. It won’t get any easier for the Saints next week when they travel to Carolina.

• Tight Ends. For the most part, it was a very depressing week for the position as a whole. Let’s start with Charles Clay, who was coming off of a big two touchdown, ten catch game in Week 14. The Patriots surprisingly focused a considerable amount of attention to stopping him, throwing extra coverage his way pretty often which led to just two targets from Ryan Tannehill. Clay caught just one of them for six yards, so there’s no doubt he put his owners in a hole on Sunday. Jordan Cameron certainly fits the disappointment criteria for Week 15, with just three catches for under 30 yards after a big performance last week at New England. Antonio Gates was a pretty popular choice in Thursday contents, but hurt his owners with a lousy two catches for 23 yards. The Broncos haven’t been that great at defending tight ends, but since Philip Rivers completed just 12 passes, it was tough for any San Diego pass-catcher to exceed or meet value. Julius Thomas was also a popular Thursday night play, and didn’t fare a whole lot better than his counterpart. He caught just four passes for 49 yards in his return from an injury. Not a single tight-end crossed the 100-yard receiving mark in Week 15, nor did any score multiple touchdowns, and I can’t imagine that happens very often.

• The Texans. Three points against the Colts? Seriously?.. I know this team is bad, as in fighting for the top overall pick bad, but they still have some talented skill-players that remain viable fantasy options on a weekly basis. Andre Johnson is the first player that comes to mind, and since the Texans are typically trailing in games, targets should be plentiful for the Texans top weapon. Targets weren’t the problem in Week 15; he had ten of them. The problem was that he caught just four of them, and managed just 18 yards for an average of 4.5 YPC. Indianapolis can be beat through the air, but the Texans failed miserably on Sunday. The running game wasn’t all that effective either, but the team as a whole did exceed 100 yards (107 total) on 25 carries. Ben Tate accounted for 72 of those yards, but was obviously held out of the endzone and didn’t do much in the passing game (3 catches for 20 yards). Case Keenum was a complete mess, but I don’t think he was penciled in on too many rosters this weekend.

• The Broncos. It’s rare to find anyone associated with the Broncos in this section, but just 20 points against the Chargers will get the whole squad a mention. Peyton had one of his worst performances of the year, completing barely half of his passes for 289 yards and a 2/1 TD-to-INT ratio. That’s not so bad for your average quarterback, but it’s a huge blunder for the most expensive quarterback on the board most weeks. This of course led to less than stellar games from the pass-catchers, except for Andre Caldwell. He saw some extra action with Wes Welker on the shelf, and made the most of it but didn’t make an impact in the fantasy community because no one thought to play him. Neither Demaryius Thomas, Julius Thomas or Eric Decker had more than 50 receiving yards, and Knowshon Moreno was held to 55 total yards on 13 touches. They’ll get back on track next week against the Texans.

What Surprised Us

• Ryan Fitzpatrick especially, but the Tennessee/Arizona game as a whole. I can’t say I thought this game would end up as a 37-34 overtime thriller filled with tons of offense. After a below-average showing in Denver last Sunday, Fitzpatrick more then doubled his yardage total in this one and threw for four total TD’s. The Harvard grad racked up 402 yards on 58 attempts, and targeted Kendall Wright a whopping 20 times, which led to 12 catches and 150 yards for his favorite wideout. Fitzpatrick has shown big game capability before in his career, but his big games are shadowed by too many disappointing performances. Tennessee was trailing for basically the entire game, which explains the abnormally high number of attempts for Fitzpatrick. On the other side, both Arizona running backs had productive games for the first time all year. Rashard Mendenhall totaled 78 yards on 22 touches, and scored twice on one-yard runs. Andre Ellington was once again the more explosive of the two, racking up 158 total yards 14 touches (four receptions). Don’t count on a repeat next week against the Seahawks.

• The leading scorers at the QB position. After Nick Foles, it gets a little wacky. Alex Smith isn’t too much of a surprise considering the opponent, but Ryan Fitzpatrick, Matt Cassel, Matt Flynn, Ryan Tannehill, Kirk Cousins and E.J. Manuel weren’t names I envisioned as top performers at the position heading into Sunday. These guys had bigger games than the likes of Peyton Manning, Tony Romo, Drew Brees, Colin Kaepernick, Cam Newton and Russell Wilson. Match-ups played a pretty big role in this, but it’s still surprising to see journeyman back-up QB’s outperform a few future Hall Of Famers.

• The Cowboys game-plan in the second-half. When a team that’s leading 26-3 at halftime ends up throwing more in the second half than the team that was trailing, things went terribly, terribly wrong. DeMarco Murray and the Dallas running game had a ton of success in the first half, and Murray was across the century mark before the second quarter concluded. After 11 carries for 103 yards in the first half, the Cowboys handed it to him just seven times in the second half, while Tony Romo threw two late interceptions to choke the game away. Had Jason Garrett just continued with the run game, the Cowboys could have controlled the clock and wouldn’t have allowed the Packers to miraculously come from behind for the win. As someone who had a lot of exposure to DeMarco Murray and none to Tony Romo, it was very infuriating to watch.

• Matt Asiata and Jordan Todman. Both of these late-emerging value plays exceed expectations on Sunday, but they did it in two very different ways. The surprising part is how heavily they were leaned on. Matt Asiata really struggled to find any running room between the 20’s, but he got the job done near the goal-line. On 30 carries, he totaled just 51 yards, and didn’t exceed 10 yards on a single one of them. He made up for that with three short TD runs, so no one was complaining about the lack of efficiency. Jordan Todman also was a huge part of the Jaguars plan, touching the ball 29 times for over 150 total yards. The UConn alum failed the find the endzone, but at an extremely cheap price tag, the yardage (and the four receptions) was enough for him to pay off his salary.

• Julian Edelman and Danny Amendola combining for 33 targets. We knew these two would be more involved with Gronkowski on the shelf, but I wasn’t expecting 14+ targets for both players. They are relatively similar in their skill sets, and the lack of size really hurt them late in the game when Amendola couldn’t come up with a touchdown catch which could have won the game for New England. Brady threw it 55 times and there aren’t many options in the receiving game right now, but it’s still surprising to see them this heavily involved. Shane Vereen saw just seven targets, but considering he only turned them into three catches for 8 yards, I can understand why they decided to go away from him. The running game was having decent success, and a more balanced approach may have led to better results for the Patriots.

This Week’s Top Performers: Quarterbacks

This Week’s Top Performers: Running Backs – Half Point PPR

This Week’s Top Performers: Wide Receivers – Half Point PPR

This Week’s Top Performers: Tight Ends – Half Point PPR

This Week’s Top Performers: Running Backs – Full Point PPR

This Week’s Top Performers: Wide Receivers – Full Point PPR

This Week’s Top Performers: Tight Ends – Full Point PPR

Optimal Lineups

Optimal Lineup: FanDuel

POS		Salary	Score
QB	Nick Foles	$9,200	34.22
RB	Jamaal Charles	$10,300	55.50
RB	Matt Asiata	$4,500	26.10
WR	DeSean Jackson	$6,900	30.50
WR	Greg Jennings	$5,100	27.80
WR	Julian Edelman	$5,500	26.40
TE	Vernon Davis	$6,100	16.40
K	Justin Tucker	$5,300	18.00
DEF	Seattle	$5,700	24.00
	TOTALS	$58,600	258.92

Optimal Lineup: DraftStreet

POS		Salary	Score
QB	Nick Foles	$14,676	34.22
QB	Ryan Fitzpatrick	$10,115	32.28
RB	Jamaal Charles	$15,337	55.50
RB	Matt Asiata	$6,670	26.10
WR	DeSean Jackson	$12,080	30.50
WR	Greg Jennings	$7,470	27.80
TE	Andrew Quarless	$4,178	15.60
FLEX	Dez Bryant	$12,962	26.80
FLEX	Julian Edelman	$10,201	26.40
DEF	Indianapolis	$4,459	18.00
	TOTALS	$98,148	293.20

Optimal Lineup: DraftKings

POS		Salary	Score
QB	Ryan Fitzpatrick	$5,400	32.28
RB	Jamaal Charles	$8,500	59.50
RB	Matt Asiata	$3,000	27.60
WR	DeSean Jackson	$6,900	35.50
WR	Greg Jennings	$4,700	33.30
TE	Delanie Walker	$4,000	19.30
FLEX	Julian Edelman	$6,400	32.90
K	Dan Bailey	$3,600	18.00
DEF	Seattle	$4,400	24.00
	TOTALS	$46,900	282.38

Note: DraftKings Optimals does not include bonuses awarded in DK’s scoring system