NFL Week 16 Betting Lines and Picks 2021
The 2021 NFL season is almost 16 weeks old. Can you believe it? They grow up so fast! The playoffs are just weeks away, and almost nothing is set in postseason stone except for reigning MVP Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers. We only have three more weeks left of regular-season action, we better not let them go to waste! Without further ado, let’s dive right into NFL Week 16 lines and betting picks.
NFL Week 16 Lines and Betting Picks
San Francisco 49ers at Tennessee Titans +3.5, O/U 44.5
This is a dandy of a Thursday game, something we don’t always get to say. Merry friggin’ Christmas, America! The Niners currently hold the NFC’s sixth seed—despite having the third-best record in the NFC West—while the Titans hold a narrow one-game advantage over the surging Colts. Derrick Henry, somehow still ranked fourth in the NFL in rushing despite the fact he hasn’t played since Week 8, has been sorely missed by Tennessee. Injuries to A.J. Brown and Julio Jones have hurt, too. Mike Vrabel’s squad has lost three of its last four games, while Indy has won five of its last six. I like the Niners at home here, as they have also won five of their last six games. In that span, San Fran has forced 12 turnovers while only committing five. Jimmy Garoppolo is taking care of the football, and taking what defenses give him. The Niners have also gotten back to the run game—averaging 159.4 ground yards per game over their last five wins—and it’s opened up the short and intermediate passing game for stud pass-catchers Deebo Samuel and George Kittle. Sorry, Tennessee fans—the division won’t be yours for much longer, unless King Henry returns. Buy a point so you can get San Fran by a field goal, or grab the moneyline at -175.
PICK: 49ers -3.5
Cleveland Browns at Green Bay Packers -7, O/U 45.5
Green Bay clinched the NFC North last week with a thrilling 31-30 win over Baltimore, while the COVID-ravaged Browns struggled with the Raiders. Cleveland could have catapulted to the top of the AFC North, but instead it moved way down to the bottle of the conference bubble. Things don’t get any easier for the Dawg Pound now—the Packers own the best record in the NFL, they’ve won three consecutive games against strong opponents, and they’ve scored at least 31 points in four straight contests. I’d still stay away from the -7—never trust an already-clinched favorite against a bubble team that could scratch and claw its way to a cover. Go with the OVER, which has hit in four straight Packers contests, and four of the five games in which Cleveland was a road ‘dog.
PICK: OVER 45.5
Indianapolis Colts at Arizona Cardinals -1, O/U 49.5
Hey, weren’t we just talking about the Colts? These guys are rolling, behind stud second-year running back Jonathan Taylor. Indy is 7-2 since Week 6, and JT has 1,191 rushing yards and 16 touchdowns in that span. If he keeps cranking, we could be looking at the NFL MVP. On Saturday, Taylor finished Indy’s 27-17 win over New England—whose defense is supposed to be good—with 170 rushing yards and a score. If he racks up 170 yards per game over the Colts’ last three games, he will finish the season in the 2,000-yard rushing club. But enough about JT—these Colts are playing great on both sides of the ball, and they’re getting Arizona at the best possible time. The Cards just found out last week that perennial Pro Bowl receiver DeAndre Hopkins is out for the season. Their defense hasn’t been as dominant since veteran pass-rusher J.J. Watt suffered a season-ending injury in Week 7. Arizona has lost two of its last three games, and four of its last seven. And while MVP candidate QB “(player-popup #kyler-murray)Kyler Murray”:/players/kyler-murray-973153’s injury issues of his own a while back might explain a good chunk of that stretch, it doesn’t explain a 30-12 loss to a 1-11-1 Lions squad last weekend. These squads are headed in opposite directions—grab the Colts’ moneyline at +100.
PICK: Colts +1
Early Sunday Games (1:00 p.m. Slate), ranked in order of confidence level
Los Angeles Chargers at Houston Texans +10, O/U 45.5
The Chargers are 8-6, desperately clinging to the third AFC Wild Card spot. Last season’s Rookie of the Year, QB Justin Herbert, has been even more fantastic in his sophomore campaign. His skill-position corps around him looks pretty damn good, too. It sounds like they’ll have to hope Justin Jackson can replace some of Austin Ekeler production. But luckily it’s LA’s passing game that has largely fueled its success— Keenan Allen has 92 catches and 1,007 yards, while Mike Williams is 36 air yards away from 1K. The Bolts rank in the top five in the NFL in total yards, passing yards, passing touchdowns, and first downs, and now they face a Texans squad that ranks around the bottom-of-the-barrel in a plethora of offensive and defensive categories. Go Chargers, go!
PICK: Chargers -10 OVER 45.5
Detroit Lions at Atlanta Falcons -6, O/U 42
The Lions had their fun! In Week 15, the squad with the worst record in football (1-11-1) beat the Cardinals, who had the best record in football (10-4). Now, the Lions can hibernate the rest of the winter, and secretly root for Jacksonville to earn a third win. Detroit QB Jared Goff has been placed in COVID-protocols, so even if running back D’Andre Swift returns for Week 16, it’s a murky scene in Motown. The Falcons have had a disappointing season, by all accounts, but they have largely taken care of business against below-average teams. Don’t overthink this one.
PICK: Lions -6
Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots -2, O/U 43.5
You can’t pick against the Pats in a late-season divisional matchup that matters. You definitely can’t pick against them one week after they suffer a loss to Indy, and go back home with an extra day of rest/preparation. Sean McDermott got thoroughly outcoached by Bill Belichick the last time these teams met—New England won in a Buffalo Nor’easter, despite completing just 2-of-3 passes for 19 yards. If you’re all about being smart, and making the best bets, take the Patriots. New England is 9-5 against the spread this season, and 3-1 ATS in AFC East battles.
PICK: Patriots -2
Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals -3, O/U 45
This is a massive divisional game between 8-6 squads, with the winner assuming first place in the AFC North. The loser would be on the outside looking in, perhaps even below the Steelers (7-6-1) on the Wild Card bubble. Yipes! In the home stretch of the NFL season, you need to rely on your studs. Baltimore could not rely on QB Lamar Jackson in Week 15 against Green Bay, but backup Tyler Huntley almost led the Ravens to the massive upset anyway (the Pack won 31-30). Meanwhile, 2020 No. 1 pick Joe Burrow completed just 15 passes for 157 yards and a score in a 15-10 win in Denver. Who will we see this weekend? Will rookie wideout Ja’Marr Chase show up? Is Lamar Jackson going to play? Will Tyler Huntley lead this squad to the playoffs? Too many question marks—take the OVER if you must make a bet, and the Bengals if you absolutely need to pick a winner.
PICK: Bengals -3, OVER 45
Jacksonville Jaguars at New York Jets -1, O/U 41.5
I don’t want the smoke here, as the kids say. These squads are both unpredictable (and often downright erratic), they’ve both suffered a rash of injuries, and both are without a real NFL head coach (massive Robert Saleh burn—get that man some aloe vera!). I’d go with the undie and buy a point if I was somehow forced to do a 16-team parlay. Otherwise, I’d stay away. Neither of these teams have won in weeks, and maybe they don’t want to win anyway.
PICK: Jaguars +3.5
New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles -10, O/U 40.5
The Giants suck, and they’re seemingly haunted for life by the decision to draft Daniel Jones in 2019. Now, Jones is on IR with a neck injury, and New York has already dismissed offensive coordinator Jason Garrett. The G-men may have defeated Philly 13-7 the last time these teams met, but that’s New York’s only win since mid-November. I like the Eagles at home here. Philly has four double-digit victories since Halloween, and QB Jalen Hurts usually takes care of business against shit teams.
PICK: Eagles -10
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers +10.5, O/U 43.5
I don’t know what exactly happened to Tom Brady last weekend against the Saints, but I do know that the GOAT rarely posts two stinkers in a row. And Carolina without Christian McCaffrey is a much different squad than New Orleans. Still, I want nothing to do with the Bucs -10.5 just a few days into the news that stud wideout Chris Godwin is out for the season (torn ACL). I’ll take the OVER. Last week, Cam Newton led Carolina to a pair of TDs against the Bills in a 31-14 Buffalo victory (hey, 45 points!)—maybe history will repeat itself with a 31-14 Tampa Bay victory this Sunday.
PICK: OVER 43.5
Los Angeles Rams vs. Minnesota Vikings +3, O/U 48.5
Guest Pick, Matt Schmitto
The Rams have battled through Covid issues to win three straight, including a much-needed division victory on the road in Arizona two weeks ago. They followed up by covering a 7-point spread against the Seahawks just two days ago. It has left the Rams with a very short week, but they should also be as healthy as they have been since their 30-point drumming of the Rams. Meanwhile, the Vikings have been the Jekyll & Hyde of the NFL throughout most of the season. After beating the Steelers 36-28 and then the Bears 17-9, Minnesota desperately needs to put together their first three-game win streak of the season. That, however, is not something I’m willing to bet on, especially not without running back Dalvin Cook. Lay the points with the red hot Rams.
PICK: Rams -3
Late Games (4:25 p.m.)
Pittsburgh Steelers at Kansas City Chiefs -7.5, O/U 45
I fully expect Patrick Mahomes to seize this late-season MVP-campaigning opportunity, especially after the Patriots lost to the Colts in Week 15. He might have to do so without his top playmakers, though, which is why we’ve seen some massive line movement. I still think Mahomes can do damage even with backup receivers. I don’t believe in the faux narrative of a late-season resurgence by Big Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers—they’ve won two games since mid-November, and didn’t reach 21 points in either. Twenty points won’t cut it in Kansas City. I’m going with the AFC defending-champs and the OVER..
PICK: Chiefs -7.5
Denver Broncos at Las Vegas Raiders -1.5, O/U 42.5
It’s a battle of AFC West underachievers! I’m leaning toward the Broncos, who showcase a strong running game with rookie Javonte Williams and veteran Melvin Gordon. Denver also has a pretty good defense, more than capable of taking out the Raiders without Darren Waller. Vegas hasn’t reached 17 points or 330 total yards in its past three games, and Denver ranks second in average points surrendered (17.4) and fourth in average yards allowed (319.4)
PICK: Broncos +1.5
Chicago Bears vs. Seattle Seahawks -6.5, O/U 43
Guest Pick, Matt Schmitto
I’m not sure there are two coaches I’d be less excited to bet on. The Bears are 4-10 against the spread this season, and the Seahawks continue their suboptimal playcalling, stubbornly choosing to run the ball at the worst of times. The good news is I don’t have to bet on Matt Nagy or Pete Carroll if I don’t want to. Rooting for a low-scoring affair seems like the best decision.
PICK: Under 43
Sunday & Monday Night Football Picks
Washington Football Team at Dallas Cowboys -10.5, O/U 47
Despite a plethora of injuries, the Cowboys have been very quietly taking care of business. They’ve won three games in a row, largely fueled by a ball-hawking defense that has forced four turnovers in all three of those games. Now Dallas is 10-4, and has its sights set on that all-important No. 1 seed that comes with a playoff bye. Don’t expect Washington to get in the way at this point, especially in Arlington. Maybe buy a point if you want some extra insurance, but I’d pretty confidently take Jerry’s ‘boys over the team with no name (and no quarterback).
PICK: Cowboys -9.5 (buy a point), UNDER 47
Miami Dolphins at New Orleans Saints -1.5, O/U 37.5
The Saints have been spoiling the fun for a lot of good teams this season, despite losing Drew Brees to retirement and Jameis Winston to an ACL tear. Sean Payton’s squad has bested the likes of Green Bay (38-3), New England (28-13), and now Tampa Bay twice (36-27, 9-0). But RPO King Taysom Hill has not looked great with his mallet finger—it’s a real injury, I can verify as a volleyball player! The driving force to New Orleans’ late-season claw-jobs has been its defense. But it’s Tua Time this Monday—Miami has won six games in a row, and has gotten it done it from every level of play in that span. It’s Undie Night Football, so grab your ‘dogs and grill yourself up a cover! Miami is 3-1-1 ATS as a road underdog this season.
PICK: Dolphins +3, OVER 37.5
Image Credit: Imagn